Welcome to Evanston

A Review of Real Estate Transactions in Evanston through July 2011

A Few Themes for the End of Summer

Overall:
There was a strong uptick in average sold prices of single family homes (SFR) in July Interestingly, 50% of the homes that sold were sold at a price LESS THAN $500,000 The lending market is dysfunctional BUT well-qualified buyers are getting awesome rates

Sellers:
Inventory stayed static which is better than increasing. More homes for sale will exert downward pressure on pricing. Stretch pricing and I need pricing does not work (see point 1 under Buyers below) How your home looks versus the competition is immensely important it validates price.

Buyers:

Buyers are still highly selective about what they look at AND extremely price conscious They are looking at many more houses (often more than 25, sometimes more than 75!) before making a buying decision They are less likely to assume debt just to acquire a larger home; FUNCTION and UTILITY are key.

All Data Created by Don Shea, The Shea Group/@properties

Key Metrics For Active Inventory Compared to July 2010

Single Family Homes For Sale:

315 units down from 335

Average/Median Price: $534,250 in 2011 vs. $550,000

Days on Market:
114 Days versus 68 Days in 2010 Distressed Homes For Sale: 41 bank-owned versus 68 in 2010
All Data Created by Don Shea, The Shea Group/@properties

Average $ $750,000 $700,000 $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000

Evanston Average Price (SFR) December 2007 to July 2011

January was the high point for 2010, May marked the 2011 high so far; the fall off is worrisome.

January 2010 marked the high point for that year. The break below $450,000 (the red line) average sold price is significant - I suggest it indicates that distressed properties are having an impact on the overall market. Over the last three years the Average Price tended to close between $500,000 and $600,000, a level that was traditionally strong for the Evanston marketplace. The January 2011 surge in prices is almost identical to that of 2010. WHile the July Average Price was up, it continues a downward trend indicating larger homes are selling at lower prices. I suggest a real estate recovery relies on my three favorite themes: (1) the financial markets settling down, (2) a stronger job market and (3) the lending environment easing up substantially. Until those three move in unison, a sustained uptrend will be short lived.

All Data Created by Don Shea, The Shea Group/@properties

Evanston Transactions RED BAR - Avg # Monthly Sales FY 2007 - July 2011
70

60

The average number of transactions is still below that for 2010. Some of this can be atributed to the lack of govenrment incentives, a tougher lending environment and consumer caution.

50

40

31
30

28 22

25

23

20

10

0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

All Data Created by Don Shea, The Shea Group/@properties

Analysis of Evanston SF Sales Median Price by # of Bedrooms

2BR 3BR 4BR 5+BR
$1,000,000
$800,000
$727,000

$600,000
$541,500

$400,000 $200,000 $0

The 3- and 4-bedroom home segments represent the majority of Evanston single family homes. In each of the last 6 fiscal quarters, this configuration represented more that 70% of the homes sold. The spike in sales for 5 BR homes in Q4, 2010 was an anomoly - only 8 homes or less than 10% of all sold. In the 4th quarter of each year, we have seen prices in these two segments drop; this year's drop, however, is somewhat more than prior years' and worriesome. The 3BR segment was at a multi-year low and appeared to be tracking LOWER than last year; however there was a strong move up in Q2 2011. All Data Created by Don Shea, The Shea Group/@properties

3 Month Average Sold Price

Evanston Pricing Trends (SFR) January 2007 - July 2011

Transactions
2008 OLP: $675,121 SP: $617,230

Orig List $
2009 OLP: $562,547 SP: $503,248

Avg SOLD $
2010 OLP: $610,750 SP: $529,088 SP/LP Ratio: 90%

3 Month Sum Transactions

$900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0

2007 OLP: $703,961 SP: $655,943

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Nov

July

Nov

Nov

July

May

May

May

May

Nov

May

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Jul

Jul

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Jan

Two notes: (1) Year to Year there is still a weak downtrend in transaction volme although not as severe as in 2008 or 2009, and (2) the difference between the Original List Price ("OLP") and Sold Price ("LP", on a monthly basis) continues to tighten which is encouragigng -Buyers and Sellers are assigning similar values to homes. Sellers need to watch for (1) further increases in inventories coming from the distressed property segments; (2) price declines caused by o other sellers trying to "get ahead of the market" and under-valuing their property, and (3) interest rate increases which could choke off demand.

All Data Created by Don Shea, The Shea Group/@properties

Mar

Jul

How to Reach Me
Address: 30 Green Bay Road Winnetka, IL 60093
Don Telephone: 847-833-8572 Email: donshea@atproperties.com
Facebook Pages: TheSheaGroup/@properties

All Data Created by Don Shea, The Shea Group/@properties