The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the p opulation increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island s hould limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies f rom 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, whe n Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals." Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered i n order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted res ult. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluat e the recommendation. It might seem cogent about the conclusion at the first glance, though author use s dubious reasoning s in order to support his conclusion such as limiting the numb er of mopeds rented during the summer would bring down the number accidents by 5 0 percent. Furthermore he compares that a similar result has been achieved in th e neighboring island of Seaville. However a closer look at the argument, unveils that the argument is rife with holes and assumptions that weakens the conclusio n of the argument. The author has based his results on the successful reduction of accidents in t he neighboring island Seaville. However the author has failed to provide substan tial evidences on how it was achieved. Seaville town council would have implemen ted a strict traffic regulation or perhaps they could have conducted classes on safety riding to the tourist. Moreover the author hasn't commented about the num ber of tourist to Seaville. It might be the case that number of tourist visting Balmer is significantly larger the Seaville tourist. Such level of inconsistency undermines the conclusion of the argument. Even if one presumes that limiting the number of mopeds has led to reduced accid ents, it is not necessary that, there will be same implications on Balmer Island as it had on Seaville. Considering reasons like geographical structure of Balme r, which may constitute rough terrains, declivity of the roads in the mountains could cause more accidents. The author hasn't provided any evidence about the si milarities of both the island. In such cases, implementing such limitations whic h will lead to reduced accidents cannot be warranted. Additionally, the author hasn't commented about the number of accidents that occ ur in other seasons. If the rate remains same, then it would imply that Balmer I sland lacks strict traffic rules, poor planning of pedestrians etc. Neither does he commented about whether the accidents are caused only because of mopeds. Th e author has also failed to see a major implication of limiting the mopeds. The companies may get diversified so that their revenue remains constant even after imposing the restriction on the number of mopeds that has to be rented daily, wh ich follows that, the figure of rented mopeds as a whole remains constant and he nce one cannot affirm about the reduction in the accidents. Further the author h asn't commented about how town council will transport the excess tourist in summ er, if there is a check on the mopeds rented. It is because of the above stated reasons the authors conclusion is erroneous. T he conclusion would have been substantiated, if the author has provided informat ion about how the Seaville Island was able to bring about the reduction in the n umber of accidents, how far the islands are similar geographically and other pro ofs that supports his claim.