Sample Binomial Problem:

A machine produces parts of which 0.5% are defective. If a random sample of ten parts produced by this machine contains two or more defectives, the machine is shut down for repairs. - Find the probability that the machine will be shut down for repairs based on this sampling plan.
N = 10, p = 0.005, q = 1 p = 0.995 P(x>1) = P(2) + P(3) + + P(10) = 1 [P(0) + P(1)] = 0.0011 = 0.11 % P(0)= 1*0.0050*0.99510=0.9511 P(1)=10*0.0051*0.9959=0.0478

- How many random parts do you have to pick to expect, on average, one defective part? n= /p = 1/0.005 = 200
Slide 1 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Mean and standard deviation of the Binomial Distribution

Mean: Std. Dev: = np = sqrt(npq)

Example: Number of heads when tossing three coins: n=3, p=0.5, and thus = np = 1.5 = sqrt(3x0.5x0.5)=0.87

Slide 2

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213

Mean and standard deviation of the Binomial Distribution

Mean for the three coin toss: = np = 1.5

But from before we also know that the mean = xP(x) = 0 P(0) + 1 P(1) + 2 P(2) + 3 P(3) =
3 1 1 3 1 = 0 + 1 0 2 1 2 2
3 3 0 3 1

3 1 1 3 1 1 + 2 + 3 2 2 3 2 2 2
3

1 2

1 1 1 12 = 0 + 3 + 2 3 + 3 1 = = 1 .5 2 2 8 2

np is a lot easier to calculate !!

Slide 3 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Continuous Random Variables

Similar concepts as with Discrete Random Variables. Can no longer define a model, list possible outcomes, and calculate their probabilities. Events of interest for continuous variables are intervals, not isolated values. Probabilities of isolated numbers/outcomes are zero.
Slide 4 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Example: Waiting Times

The #24 bus goes past the McGill bus stop every ten minutes throughout the day. You set out to take the bus without knowing the precise schedule. How long will you have to wait for the next bus?

Slide 5

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213

Waiting Times
Waiting time T (in minutes) is a continuous random variable: Random cant be predicted with certainty Continuous can take on any value on the continuous time-scale from 0 to 10 minutes. In its decimal representation, a value of T is an infinite sequence of digits, e.g. - sequences starting with 0 (0.198) represent waiting times of less than one minute - sequences starting with 1 (1.934) represent waiting times between one and two minutes, etc.
Slide 6 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Waiting Times
Not knowing anything about the exact arrival times, we might feel that the ten one-minute intervals (0 to 1, 1 to 2, etc) are equally likely. Also, we might feel that the ten 0.1 minute intervals within any particular one-minute interval are equally likely, and so on. the digits in the sequence defining a T-value are independent random digits. Probability that T starts out with the three digits 3, 6, and 4 is P(T=3.64) = P(1. Digit = 3, 2. Digit = 6, 3. Digit = 4) = P(1. Digit = 3) * P(2. Digit = 6) * P(3. Digit = 4) = (0.1)*(0.1)*(0.1) = (0.1)3
Slide 7 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Waiting Times
What is the probability of any particular value of T (e.g. 3.64000 or 1/3)?
P (T = 1 / 3) = lim P (T has 3 in its first n places) = lim(0.1) n = 0
n n

What is the probability that the wait is at least two minutes but less than four minutes?
P(2 T < 4) = P(T starts with 2 or 3) = 0.1 + 0.1 = 0.2

What is the probability that the wait is between 1.42 and 3.61 minutes? 3.61 1.42 P(1.42 < T < 3.61) = 219 (0.1) 3 = 0.219 = 10
Slide 8 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

The Distribution Function

If we know the probability P(X<x) for all x, we can find the probability of any interval. The quantity P(X < x) as a function of x is called distribution function of the random variable X. It is also called the cumulative distribution function and commonly referred to as c.d.f.

Slide 9

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213

Distribution Function, Definitions

Distribution function (c.d.f) of the random variable X: F(x) = P(X<x) The probability of an interval (a,b) is P(a < X < b) = F(b) F(a)

Properties of F(x), the c.d.f of a continuous random variable: 1. F(-) = 0 and F() = 1 2. F(a) < F(b) whenever a < b 3. F(x) is continuous for all x

Slide 10

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213

Verify that F(x) = + 1/ Atan x is a c.d.f ! 1. F(-) = + 1/ (-/2) = 0 F(+) = + 1/ (+/2) = 1 2. d/dx (Atan x) = 1/(1+x2) > 0 -> monotonically increasing, and thus F(a) < F(b) whenever a < b 3. F(x) is continuous for all x CHECK !

Slide 11

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213

Example Waiting Time

Assumed that the next bus arrives at a time which is equally likely in the next ten minutes. Probability that the bus arrives in any subinterval (a,b) of the interval (0,10) is proportional to its length:

P ( a < T < b) =

ba 10

for 0 < a < b < 10

uniform distribution Compare: Mass along a wire

Complete c.d.f graph ramp function:

F(t) 1

0 Slide 12

10 305-262B Statistics and Measurement

t 030213

Probability Density Function, p.d.f.

A probability density function, p.d.f is an integrable non-negative function f(x) that satisfies

f ( x)dx = 1 f (u )du
b

and defines a distribution for X, with c.d.f.

x

F ( x) =

When X is continuous with p.d.f. f(x)

P(a < X < b) = f ( x)dx = F (b) F (a)

a
Slide 13 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Preview: Normal pdf, cdf

Slide 14

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213

Mean and Standard Deviation

The mean of a continuous random variable with p.d.f. f(x) is E ( X ) = = xf ( x)dx

and the variance

= var X = ( x ) f ( x)dx = E ( X ) =
2 2 2 2

f ( x)dx 2

and the standard deviation

Slide 15 305-262B Statistics and Measurement

= var X
030213

The Normal Probability Distribution

Single most important prob. distribution Normal distributions are a family of distributions with the same general shape: symmetric with scores more concentrated in the middle than in the tails. Normal distributions are sometimes described as bell shaped. Examples of normal distributions are shown to the right. Notice that they differ in how spread out they are. The area under each curve is the same. The height of a normal distribution is specified mathematically in 2 2 terms of two parameters: e ( x ) / 2 f ( x) = the mean () and 2 2 the standard deviation ().
Slide 16 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Why are Normal Distributions important?

One reason the normal distribution is important is that many engineering, psychological, educational, etc. variables are distributed approximately normally. Measures of reading ability, introversion, job satisfaction, and memory, IQ are among the many psychological variables approximately normally distributed. Although the distributions are only approximately normal, they are usually quite close. A second reason the normal distribution is so important is that it is easy for mathematical statisticians to work with. This means that many kinds of statistical tests can be derived for normal distributions. Fortunately, these tests work very well even if the distribution is only approximately normally distributed. Some tests work well even with very wide deviations from normality..

Slide 17

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213

The standard normal distribution

The standard normal distribution is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. Normal distributions can be transformed to standard normal distributions by the formula: where X is a score from the original normal distribution, is the mean of the original normal distribution, and is the standard deviation of original normal distribution.
Slide 18 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

The standard normal distribution

The standard normal distribution is sometimes called the z distribution. A z score always reflects the number of standard deviations above or below the mean a particular score is. For instance, if a person scored a 70 on a test with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10, then they scored 2 standard deviations above the mean. Converting the test scores to z scores, an X of 70 would be: So, a z score of 2 means the original score was 2 standard deviations above the mean. Note that the z distribution will only be a normal distribution if the original distribution (X) is normal.
Slide 19 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Percentile Ranks
One important use of the standard normal distribution is for converting between scores from a normal distribution and percentile ranks.

Areas under portions of the standard normal distribution are shown to the above. About .68 (.34 + .34) of the distribution is between -1 and 1 while about .96 of the distribution is between -2 and 2.
Slide 20 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Converting to percentiles and back

If the mean and standard deviation of a normal distribution are known, it is relatively easy to figure out the percentile rank of a person obtaining a specific score. To be more concrete, assume a test in Statistics is normally distributed with a mean of 80 and a standard deviation of 5. What is the percentile rank of a person who received a score of 70 on the test? Mathematical statisticians have developed ways of determining the proportion of a distribution that is below a given number of standard deviations from the mean. They have shown that only 2.3% of the population will be less than or equal to a score two standard deviations below the mean. In terms of the Statistics test example, this means that a person scoring 70 would be in the 2.3rd percentile.

This graph shows the distribution of scores on the test. The shaded area is 2.3% of the total area. The proportion of the area below 70 is equal to the proportion of the scores below 70.
Slide 21 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Converting to percentiles and back

What about a person scoring 75 on the test? The proportion of the area below 75 is the same as the proportion of scores below 75. A score of 75 is one standard deviation below the mean because the mean is 80 and the standard deviation is 5. Mathematical statisticians have determined that 15.9% of the scores in a normal distribution are lower than a score one standard deviation below the mean. Therefore, the proportion of the scores below 75 is 0.159 and a person scoring 75 would have a percentile rank score of 15.9. The table on the right gives the proportion of the scores below various values of z. z is computed with the formula: where z is the number of standard deviations () above the mean () of X.

Slide 22

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213

Converting to percentiles and back

When z is negative it means that X is below the mean. Thus, a z of -2 means that X is -2 standard deviations above the mean which is the same thing as being +2 standard deviations below the mean. To take another example, what is the percentile rank of a person receiving a score of 90 on the test? The graph shows that most people scored below 90. Since 90 is 2 standard deviations above the mean [z = (90 - 80)/5 = 2] it can be determined from the table that a z score of 2 is equivalent to the 97.7th percentile: The proportion of people scoring below 90 is thus .9772.
Slide 23 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Converting to percentiles and back

What score on the Statistics test would it have taken to be in the 75th percentile? (Remember the test has a mean of 80 and a standard deviation of 5.) The answer is computed by reversing the steps in the previous problems. First, determine how many standard deviations above the mean one would have to be to be in the 75th percentile. This can be found by using a z table and finding the z associated with .75. The value of z is .674. Thus, one must be .674 standard deviations above the mean to be in the 75th percentile. Since the standard deviation is 5, one must be (5)(.674) = 3.37 points above the mean. Since the mean is 80, a score of 80 + 3.37 = 83.37 is necessary. Rounding off, a score of 83 is needed to be in the 75th percentile. Since , a little algebra demonstrates that X = + z . For the present example, X = 80 + (.674)(5) = 83.37 as just shown.

Slide 24

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213

Area under a portion of the Normal Curve

If a test is normally distributed with a mean of 60 and a standard deviation of 10, what proportion of the scores are above 85? This problem is very similar to figuring out the percentile rank of a person scoring 85. The first step is to figure out the proportion of scores less than or equal to 85. This is done by figuring out how many standard deviations above the mean 85 is. Since 85 is 85-60 = 25 points above the mean and since the standard deviation is 10, a score of 85 is 25/10 = 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. Or, in terms of the formula, A z table can be used to calculate that .9938 of the scores are less than or equal to a score 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. It follows that only 1-.9938 = .0062 of the scores are above a score 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. Therefore, only .0062 of the scores are above 85.

Slide 25

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213

Area under a portion of the Normal Curve

Suppose you wanted to know the proportion of students receiving scores between 70 and 80. The approach is to figure out the proportion of students scoring below 80 and the proportion below 70. The difference between the two proportions is the proportion scoring between 70 and 80. First, the calculation of the proportion below 80. Since 80 is 20 points above the mean and the standard deviation is 10, 80 is 2 standard deviations above the mean. A z table can be used to determine that .9772 of the scores are below a score 2 standard deviations above the mean

Slide 26

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213

Area under a portion of the Normal Curve

To calculate the proportion below 70, A z table can be used to determine that the proportion of scores less than 1 standard deviation above the mean is .8413. So, if .1587 of the scores are above 70 and .0228 are above 80, then .1587 -.0228 = .1359 are between 70 and 80. Assume a test is normally distributed with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. What proportion of the scores would be between 85 and 105? The solution to this problem is similar to the solution to the last one. The first step is to calculate the proportion of scores below 85. Next, calculate the proportion of scores below 105. Finally, subtract the first result from the second to find the proportion scoring between 85 and 105.
Slide 27 305-262B Statistics and Measurement 030213

Area under a portion of the Normal Curve

Begin by calculating the proportion below 85. 85 is one standard deviation below the mean: Using a z table with the value of -1 for z, the area below -1 (or 85 in terms of the raw scores) is .1587. Doing the same thing for 105, A z table shows that the proportion scoring below .333 (105 in raw scores) is .6304. The difference is .6304 .1587 = .4714. So .4714 of the scores are between 85 and 105.

Slide 28

305-262B Statistics and Measurement

030213