Sep 11th Sep 17th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 19

Elite Global Trading

Forex Weekly Commentary

Fundamental Outlook
talk about QE3 from the FED we will most likely see the US Dollar continue to strengthen. Keep a close eye on these developments when taking positions in the currency markets. All EURO pairs have made substantial moves down last week on the Euro zone concerns and are expected to continue over time, we will most likely get more information on plans to hold Euro zone together in the week ahead which will bring stable movement for the EURO after last weeks slide down on economic worries of collapse. The euro zones contagion shocks the markets and sends the EURUSD to monthly lows down to 1.3620, breaking the 6 month triangle pattern it had created. A break below 1.3975 and 1.3840 has given the EURUSD some steam as it moves to the downside. As Greece approaches a possible default, the EURUSD looks to possible keep its pace to downside movement. As the euro zone uncertainty starts to reach a climax, the markets around the world will be most likely shaken up going into this weeks trading. Last week we were surprised with the SNB move to Peg the Swiss Franc against the EURO, which is a bold move of manipulating their currency to limit risk in Switzerland. Next in line to make bold moves on their currency is BOJ, as the Yen moves towards it's highs the BOJ will most likely not allow for any further strengthening of their currency, which will bring some sharp moves on the YEN pairs in the weeks to come. As the world waits to see if Ben Bernanke will move into QE3 the US Dollar strengthens against most of its counterparts, if we do not hear any Bank of Japan has the go ahead from the G7 to take action if they feel it is necessary to weaken their currency, with this said, we are very skeptical to take any shorts in GBPJPY, EURJPY, USDJPY, AUDJPY. For the time being we will step aside from any short plays in these pairs. SNB also has taken bold action on their currency with making a move to Peg their currency against the EURO. On Thursday they have their rate statement, and also have stated they will stand firm with holding their currency above 1.2000 against the EURO, with this said, we are skeptical to take shorts in the Swiss pairs until the market adapts to this standing by the SNB.

In this issue: Fundamental Outlook AUDUSD NZDUSD 1 2

EURUSD EURJPY GBPJPY Event Risk Contact Info Disclaimer

Sep 11th Sep 17th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 19

Elite Global Trading

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

AUDUSD: The Aussie received great GDP, the economy in Australia grew by 1.2% in Q2. Although employment data was weak in August: a drop in jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate has put recent pressure on the Australian dollar. The rally from parity up to 1.0780 area looks to be complete and a move back down towards 1.0300 is likely in the week to come. Upside should be capped well below 1.0750 area. Below 1.0300 the lows near parity will certainly be tested, which we expect to happen in the near future. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, with risk off trends starting to take over, we see 1.0300 in target range this week, a break below 1.0300 a move down to 1.0000 is very likely. We favor a rally prior to entry on short side. Look for a move up towards 1.0550-1.0600 being possible.

New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar

NZDUSD: RBNZ will give their rate statement on Wednesday, no change is expected at the moment. As risk appetite trends shift to risk off trends we will most likely see this pair back down towards .7900 in the weeks to come. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, a rally up to .8285-.8350. Support on the downside sits at .8197, .8160, .8080, and .7965. We see a play down to lows over the weeks to come. Be cautious of the short term rally before the move down to the lows happen.

Sep 11th Sep 17th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 19

Elite Global Trading

Euro / United States Dollar

EURUSD: The acknowledgement by the ECB that downside risks to growth have increased suggest that ECB rate cut speculation will only increase in the weeks to come. Also take a look at the spread between 2-year US-German government bonds now points to a EUR/USD rate in the 1.2900/3000 area. Technically, daily Ichimoku charts delivered a strong sell signal in EUR/USD, with the anticipated bearish crossover of the Tenkan line below the Kijun line with price below the cloud. At the close of the week, price is also holding above the 61.8% retracement (1.3659) of the 1.2867-1.4940 advance from Jan. to May. Daily closes below these levels will strongly suggest to me that further losses are imminent and I would look for declines to the 1.3350/60 area (76.4% retracement) as the next target. We look to re-establish short EUR/USD positions in the 1.3830/1.3960 area, which is marked by the daily lows in June 2011 (1.3830/40) and broken trend line support dating back to June 2010 (1.3955/60). Recommendation: Bearish Bias, we look to see this downward movement to continue in the weeks to come. First we would like to see a rally back towards 1.3840-1.3950 to look for another short entry. A rally up cannot be ruled out so be careful where you place your entries on this strong movement down, but at the same time with markets scared around the world a continued move down without a rally can also be very possible. We prefer to wait for rally to have a tighter risk on the next move down. With an entry zone between 1.3840-1.3950 we like to place stops above 1.4100, looking for targets around 1.3407 and lower.

Euro / Japanese Yen

EURJPY: Has had a very strong move to the bearish side with the EUR on verge of contagion. The appreciation of the YEN across all pairs is not going to last with the BOJ on the verge of pulling the trigger and moving forward with intervening on the YEN strength, if this happens you will see a spike up on all YEN pairs. In the meantime the EURJPY is at all time lows and most likely will continue to push lower until BOJ takes action. Bearish plays on any YEN pairs now is very dangerous with G7 this past week saying they support any moves done by BOJ to intervene for their economies sake. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, Careful of any shorts with the BOJ on the verge of intervention. We are very skeptical of going short.

Sep 11th Sep 17th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 19

Elite Global Trading

UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen

GBPUSD: The Pound has dropped along with global worries and British weakness. The upcoming week has key inflation and employment figures. Members at the Bank of England might be discussing more quantitative easing, which we may here more about as weak data continues to come out of the UK. We are holding above July low of 1.5785 and will likely break below this low in the weeks to come as weakness in the GBPUSD continues to build. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, a move down towards 1.5650 is likely in the weeks to come. We favor a rally towards 1.60501.6100. As the pair gains momentum to the downside 1.5344 is December 2010 low that is most likely to make it's next move towards once it breaks 1.5785. Look for short opportunities after rally. All moves to the upside will most likely be capped well below 1.6200.

Weeks Event Risk

Sunday: AUD: Trade Balance 9:30pm 3:30am EUR: ECB Monthly Bulletin 4am GBP: Retail Sales 4:30am Monday: USD: FOMC Member Fisher Speaks 4pm EUR: CPI 5am USD: Core CPI 8:30am USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am Tuesday: GBP: CPI 4:30am GBP: Trade Balance 4:30am AUD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment 8:30pm Friday: EUR: Current Account 4am USD: TIC Long-Term Purchases 9am Wednesday CHF: PPI 3:15am GBP: Claimant Count Change 4:30am EUR: Industrial Production 5am USD: Core Retail Sales 8:30am USD: PPI 8:30am NZD: Rate Decision/Statement 5pm AUD: MI Inflation Expectations 9pm USD: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 9:55am USD: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10am

Thursday: CHF: Libor Rate/SNB Policy Statement

Elite Glob al Trading

News letter Authors: Anthony Rousseau

arousseau@eliteglobaltrader.com

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