The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) says that the long-run relative frequency of repeated independent events gets

closer and closer to the true relative frequency as the number of trials increases P(S) = 1, S = set of all possible outcomes P(AC ) = 1 P(A) If A and B are disjoint: P(A and B) = 0 A and B are not independent If A and B are not disjoint: P(A and B) > 0 A and B may or may not be independent. The probability of an event occurring is 1 minus the probability that it does not occur: P(AC) = 1P(A) For two disjoint events A and B, the probability that one or the other occurs is the sum of the probabilities of the two events: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) Events that have no outcomes in common (and, thus, cannot occur together) are called disjoint (or mutually exclusive). Ex: Outcome of a coin toss cannot be a head and a tail; A student cannot fail and pass a class For two independent events A and B, the probability that both A and B occur is the product of the probabilities of the two events: P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) Independence means that the outcome of one trial doesn't influence the outcome of another and disjoint means that two events cannot occur together. Disjoint events cannot be independent Since we know that disjoint events have no outcomes in common, knowing that one occurred means the other didnt Thus, the probability of the second occurring changed based on our knowledge that the first occurred It follows, then, that the two events are not independent Non-disjoint events may or may not be independent Just because two events can occur at the same time does not mean they need to also be independent, or dependent It is possible that two randomly selected students get an A in a class, but how they do in the class may have nothing to do with each other However if you and a close friend of yours that you study with both get an A in a class, how well the two of you do in that class are possibly dependent on each other If A and B are not disjoint, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B) Conditional Probability: Bayes Theorem:P(B|A) = P(A and B)/P(A) Ex: What is the probability that a randomly chosen smoker is female? P(F|S) = P(F and S)/P(S)= 234/421 = 0.556 General Multiplication Rule If A and B are independent, P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) A and B do not need to be independent, P(A and B) = P(A) P(B|A) Note: Assume independence only if the question specifies it or if you have checked for it yourself. When drawing without replacement, probability of the second marble being blue depends on the color of the first marble since the composition of the urn changes with the outcome of the first draw. P(B|B) P(B|O) When drawing without replacement, the probability of the second marble being blue given the first was orange is not equal to the probability of drawing a blue marble in the first draw since the composition of the urn changes with the outcome of the first draw. P(B|O) P(B) Tree diagram helps us think through conditional probabilities by showing sequences of events as paths that look like branches of a tree There are two types of random variables: Discrete random variables can take one of a finite number of distinct outcomes Example: Number of credit hours Continuous random variables can take any numeric value within a range of values Example: Cost of books this term A probability model for a random variable consists of: the collection of all possible values of a random variable and the probabilities that the values occur An example of a probability model for continuous random variables is N(, ) For a discrete random variable the probability model lists the possible values the random variable takes and the probability which it takes those values We are often interested in the value we expect a random variable to take on, notated (for population mean) or E (X) for expected value Expected value: = E (X) = x P(X = x)

We may also be interested in the variability in the values a random variable takes, for this we would calculate the standard deviation of the random variable. Example - Linear Transformations The average price of a small cup of coffee to go is $1.40, with a standard deviation of 30. An 8.5% tax is added if you take your coffee to stay. Assume that each time you get a coffee to stay you also tip 50. What is the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the amount you spend on coffee when to take it to stay? Let X represent the amount you spend on coffee to go (in ), and Y represent the amount you spend on coffee to stay (in ). Then, Y = X + 0.085X + 50 = 1.085X + 50 E(X)=140 E(Y)=E(1.085X +50)= 1.085E(X) + 50= 1.085140+50= 201.9 $2.02 V(X)=302 =900 V(Y)=V(1.085X +50)= 1.0852V(X) = 1.0852 900= 1059.503 $10.60 SD(X)=30 SD(Y)=SD(1.085X +50)= |1.085|SD(X) = 1.08530= 32.55 We have Bernouili Trials if: 1. 1 the trials are independent 2. 2 there are two possible outcomes (success and failure) 3. 3 the probability of success, p, is constant Example - Bernouilli trials (I) What is the probability of not rolling a 6 on the 1st try and rolling a 6 on the 2nd try with a fair die? This means that we want to not roll a 6 on the 1st try AND roll a 6 on the 2nd try. Since the rolls are independent, we can use the multiplication rule. P(6 on the 2nd try) = P(not a 6 on the 1st try) P(6 on the 2nd try)= 5/6 x 1/6 = 5/36 H0: Chance (independence) model: Treatment and outcome are independent. They have no relationship, and the observed difference in survival rates was due to chance. HA: Alternate model: Treatment and patient outcome are not independent. The observed difference in survival rates was not due to chance and the treatment did increase the survival rate. A chance model is what we would expect to get if we left things up to chance, i.e. the treatment was not effective. One method of simulation: Write whether or not each patient survived on 35 cards Shuffle all the cards together, then deal them into two groups of size 69 and 34 Count how many patients in the control and treatment groups survived Calculate P(alive|control) and P(alive|treatment) If treatment is not effective would you expect these probabilities to be similar or different? If treatment is not effective the probabilities should be similar. Decision Making and p-value (I) When conducting a hypothesis test, we determine whether or not to reject H0 in favor of HA based on how likely it is to achieve the observed or an even more extreme outcome under the chance model. This probability is called the p-value. p-value = P(observed or more extreme outcome | H0 is true) If p-value is less than a given level, usually 0.05, we reject H0 in favor of HA. In our example observed outcome is 24 patients surviving in the treatment group. A more extreme outcome means more than 24 patients surviving in the treatment group. p-value = P(24 or more patients surviving in the treatment group | chance model) = 1 100 = 0.01