Optimis 0 1 2

312,000,000 321,360,000
Revenue (3% increase/year)

Cost (5% increase/year) 126,000,000 132,300,000

SGA Expense (increase

35,000,000 38,500,000
10%/year)
Depresiasi 50,000,000 50,000,000
EBIT 101,000,000 100,560,000
Tax 25,250,000 25,140,000
Income 75,750,000 75,420,000
Tambah Depresiasi 50,000,000 50,000,000
Casflow 125,750,000 125,420,000
Working Capital 20,000,000 31,200,000 32,136,000
Working Capital CF - 20,000,000 - 11,200,000 - 936,000
Residual Value
Project Cashflow - 520,000,000 114,550,000 124,484,000
Asset Cost - 500,000,000
PV Cashflow - 520,000,000 102,276,786 99,237,883

Total PV 703,270,651
Initial Investment - 520,000,000

NPV 183,270,651
IRR 7% 20%

Expected 0 1 2
Revenue (3% increase/year) 260,000,000 267,800,000
Cost (5% increase/year) 105,000,000 110,250,000
SGA Expense (increase
35,000,000 38,500,000
10%/year)
Depresiasi 50,000,000 50,000,000
EBIT 70,000,000 69,050,000
Tax 17,500,000 17,262,500
Income 52,500,000 51,787,500
Tambah Depresiasi 50,000,000 50,000,000
Casflow 102,500,000 101,787,500
Working Capital 20,000,000 26,000,000 26,780,000
Working Capital CF - 20,000,000 - 6,000,000 - 780,000
Residual Value
Project Cashflow - 520,000,000 96,500,000 101,007,500
PV - 500,000,000 86,160,714 80,522,561
Asset Cost - 500,000,000
PV Cashflow - 520,000,000 86,160,714 80,522,561

Total PV 565,341,614
Initial Investment - 520,000,000

NPV 45,341,614
IRR 2% 14%
 3 4 5 6 7 8

331,000,800 340,930,824 351,158,749 361,693,511 372,544,317 383,720,646

138,915,000 145,860,750 153,153,788 160,811,477 168,852,051 177,294,653

42,350,000 46,585,000 51,243,500 56,367,850 62,004,635 68,205,099

50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000

99,735,800 98,485,074 96,761,461 94,514,184 91,687,631 88,220,894
24,933,950 24,621,269 24,190,365 23,628,546 22,921,908 22,055,224
74,801,850 73,863,806 72,571,096 70,885,638 68,765,723 66,165,671

50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000

124,801,850 123,863,806 122,571,096 120,885,638 118,765,723 116,165,671
33,100,080 34,093,082 35,115,875 36,169,351 37,254,432 38,372,065
- 964,080 - 993,002 - 1,022,792 - 1,053,476 - 1,085,081 - 1,117,633

123,837,770 122,870,803 121,548,303 119,832,162 117,680,643 115,048,038

88,145,279 78,086,617 68,969,772 60,710,703 53,232,746 46,465,973

Debt 12% - 260,000,000.00

Equity 15% - 260,000,000.00
WACC 12.00%

3 4 5 6 7 8
275,834,000 284,109,020 292,632,291 301,411,259 310,453,597 319,767,205
115,762,500 121,550,625 127,628,156 134,009,564 140,710,042 147,745,544
42,350,000 46,585,000 51,243,500 56,367,850 62,004,635 68,205,099

50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000

67,721,500 65,973,395 63,760,634 61,033,845 57,738,920 53,816,562
16,930,375 16,493,349 15,940,159 15,258,461 14,434,730 13,454,141
50,791,125 49,480,046 47,820,476 45,775,384 43,304,190 40,362,422
50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000
100,791,125 99,480,046 97,820,476 95,775,384 93,304,190 90,362,422
27,583,400 28,410,902 29,263,229 30,141,126 31,045,360 31,976,721
- 803,400 - 827,502 - 852,327 - 877,897 - 904,234 - 931,361

99,987,725 98,652,544 96,968,149 94,897,487 92,399,956 89,431,061

71,169,288 62,695,475 55,022,332 48,078,020 41,797,048 36,119,706

71,169,288 62,695,475 55,022,332 48,078,020 41,797,048 36,119,706

Debt 12% - 260,000,000.00

Equity 15% - 260,000,000.00
WACC 12.00%
 9 10

395,232,265 407,089,233

186,159,386 195,467,355

75,025,608 82,528,169

50,000,000 50,000,000
84,047,271 79,093,709
21,011,818 19,773,427
63,035,453 59,320,282

50,000,000 50,000,000
113,035,453 109,320,282
39,523,227 40,708,923
38,372,065 39,523,227
11,250,000
151,407,518 160,093,508

54,599,069 51,545,825

9 10
329,360,221 339,241,028
155,132,822 162,889,463
75,025,608 82,528,169

50,000,000 50,000,000
49,201,791 43,823,396
12,300,448 10,955,849
36,901,343 32,867,547
50,000,000 50,000,000
86,901,343 82,867,547
32,936,022 33,924,103
 31,976,721 32,936,022
11,250,000
118,878,064 127,053,569
42,868,622 40,907,849

42,868,622 40,907,849
LAPORAN LABA 2016 2017 2018
RUGI
Pendapatan 209370 259868 465742
Beban Usaha Langsung -174501 -218943 -392623
Laba Kotor 34,869 40,925 73,119
Beban administrasi -34152 -20937 -24544
EBITDA 1,015 20,312 48,936
Penurunan Nilai aset tetap -298 -324 -2,473
EBIT 717 19,988 51,409
Beban bunga dan keuangan -9514 -9194 -11943
Laba Sebelum Pajak -8,797 10,794 39,466
Beban pajak penghasilan 972 -2483 -11354
bersih
Laba Bersih Tahun
-7825 8311 28112.09
Berjalan

Laporan Posisi
2016 2017 2018
Keuangan
ASET LANCAR
Kas dan setara kas serta 67,800 59600 81297
aset keuangan lainnya
Piutang usaha pihak 6,534 7,517 20829
berelasi
Piutang usaha pihak ketiga 45,965 67,167 103924
Piutang lain-lain 621 580 943
Persediaan bersih 4,974 7,283 9037
Aset lancar lainnya 21,842 18937 34144
JUMLAH ASET
147,736 161,084 250,174
LANCAR

ASET TIDAK LANCAR

Investasi pada pengendalian 5,798 5,358
bersama entitas
Aset tetap 233,487 264,009 298,822
Depresiasi aset tetap 298 324 361.09
Net aset tetap 233,189 263,685 298461
Aset hak guna
Depresiasi aset hak guna
Net aset hak guna
Aset tidak lancar lainnya 6702 6717 6956
JUMLAH ASET TIDAK
245,689 275,760 305,417
LANCAR

JUMLAH ASET 393,425 436,844 555,591

LIABILITAS JANGKA PENDEK

Utang Usaha Pihak Berelasi 305 306 1,003

Utang Usaha Pihak Ketiga 37,208 64,668 91,996
Utang Lain-lain Pihak 1,316 1,316
Berelasi
Utang Lain-lain Pihak 99 136 1,252
Ketiga
Utang Dividen 227 192 204
Utang Pajak 636 912 7,623
Beban Masih Harus 2,311 2,450 8,829
Dibayar
Liabilitas Kontrak
Liabilitas Sewa 6,860 7,135 6,886
Lain-lain 19,480 20,272 30,071
TOTAL LIABILITAS 68,442 97,387 147864
JANGKA PENDEK
LIABILITAS JANGKA 154,534 160,922 216595
PANJANG
JUMLAH EKUITAS 170,449 178,535 191132
JUMLAH LIABILITAS
393,425 436,844 555,591
DAN EKUITAS

D/E 1.31 1.45 1.91

Laporan Arus Kas 2016 2017 2018
Penerimaan kas dari 206,483 245,821 408335
pelanggan
Pembayaran kas kepada -103,528 -137,323 -204961
pemasok
Pembayaran kas kepada
karyawan -39,111 -46,516 -115604
Total pembayaran kas
kepada pemasok & -142,639 -183,839 -320,565
Karyawan
Persentase kas kepada -69% -75% -79%
pemasok dan karyawan
Kas dihasilkan dari 63,844 61,982 87,770
operasi

Penerimaan pengembalian 7,736 8,729 2208

pajak
Penerimaan bunga 657 627 497
pembayaran bunga dan -8,271 -9,164 -11727
beban keuangan
Pembayaran pajak
penghasilan dan pajak -10,189 -9,971 -3251
lainnya
Total kas lain-lain -10,067 -9,779 -12,273
ARUS KAS DARI
53,777 52,203 75,497
AKTIVITAS OPERASI

Pembelian Aset Tetap -12,718 -49,648 -112057

ARUS KAS DARI -12,663 -49,299 -114844

AKTIVITAS INVESTASI
ARUS KAS DARI
AKTIVITAS -28,263 -11,842 42286
PENDANAAN
PENURUNAN/
12,851 -8,938 2,939
KENAIKAN KAS
KAS AWAL TAHUN 53,574 66,425 65228

Pengaruh perubahan kurs

valuta asing

KAS AKHIR TAHUN 66,425 57,487 68,167

Key Financial Ratio

Value 2016 2017 2018
Market Capitalization 624,326,043,749 1,948,623,451,572 1,640,999,148,917
PE Ratio -5.97 17.39 4.05
PBV Annual 0.274 0.810 0.596
Current Share Outstanding 1,008,604,271 1,008,604,271 1,008,604,271
Price Januari 1 next year 619 1932 1627
Price in USD 0.046 0.143 0.113
Rp/USD 13369 13480 14400
Earning Per Share - 0.007758 0.008240 0.027872
Book Value per share 0.169 0.177 0.190

Solvency
Current Ratio 2.16 1.65 1.69
Quick Ratio 1.767 1.385 1.400
Debt to Equity Ratio 1.31 1.45 1.91

Profitability
Return on Asset -2% 2% 5%
Return on Equity -5% 5% 15%
Gross Profit Margin 17% 16% 16%
Operating Profit Margin 0% 8% 11%
Net Profit Margin -4% 3% 6%
2019 2020 2021

476441 340,688 415,737

-395310 -265,822 -341,175
81,131 74,866 74,562
-26798 -29600 -27653
54,718 45,665 47,351
-385 -399 -442
54,333 45,266 46,909
-13752 -9,730 -5,575
40,581 35,536 41,334
-9257 -3,038 -7,381

31324 32,498 33,953

2019 2020 2021

84684 134,408 113,725

20216 35,896 30,701

79,294
85495 40,084 59,199
217 1013 2164
6578 4217 9075
24874 6396 16,937

222,064 222,014 231,801

312,923 231,754 229,556

385.467 354 401
312538 231,400 229,155
54,008 38,565
45 40
53,963 38,525
16442 22311 33255
328,980 307,674 300,935

551,044 529,688 532,736

1,145 3,925 3,259

59,349 31,342 64,570

 958

1,182 1,501 1,661

253 248 317

5,430 2,832 11,742

15,776 17,046 19,445

65 2,418
11,236 15,583 11,913
51,008 63,036 52,054
146337 135,578 167,379

192144 162,670 105,134

212563 231,440 260,223

551,044 529,688 532,736

1.59 1.29 1.05

2019 2020 2021
504245 358,413 401,340

-250396 -132,805 -169,145

-147644 -107,640 -112,906

-398,040 -240,445 -282,051

-79% -67% -70%

106,205 117,968 119,289

9221 2,251

1177 -15,092 2,237

-11662 -8,724 -5,084

-12941 11,060 -6,805

-14,205 -10,505 -9,652

92,000 107,463 109,637

-58343 -29,993 -42,045

-66333 -31,291 -77,559

 -10852 -25,772 -76,890

14,815 50,400 -44,812

68167 84,182 133,945

1200

84,182 134,582 89,133

2019 2020 2021

1,308,159,739,487 1,651,085,191,627 2,309,703,780,590
3.03 3.62 4.79
0.446 0.508 0.625
1,008,604,271 1,008,604,271 1,008,604,271
1297 1637 2290
0.094 0.117 0.161
13800 14034 14197
0.031057 0.032221 0.033663
0.211 0.229 0.258

1.52 1.64 1.38

1.303 1.559 1.229
1.59 1.29 1.05

6% 6% 6%
15% 14% 13%
17% 22% 18%
11% 13% 11%
7% 10% 8%
 Tahun 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 16-21 Rtr
Revenue 209370 259868 465742 476441 340688 415737 69%
Rev Growth % 22% 58% 2% -34% 20% 11%

Tahun 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Rata2 (17-21)

EBIT 717 19988 51409 54333 45266 46909 85%
EBIT Growth (%) 333% 94% 6% -18% 4% 17%

Tahun 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Rata2

Pajak 972 -2483 -11354 -9257 -3038 -7381 -5424
%Pajak/Ebit 136% -12% -22% -17% -7% -16% 10%

Tahun 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Rata2

Depreciation 298 324 2473 385 399 442 720
% Depre/ Capex -2.3% -0.7% -2.2% -0.7% -1.3% -1.1% -1.37%

Tahun 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Rata2

Capital Expenditure -12718 -49648 -112057 -58343 -29993 -42045 -50801

Capex/ Revenue -6% -19% -24% -12% -9% -10% -13%

Tahun 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Rata2

Working Capital 31610 25281 58707 47481 17896 14493 32578
%WC/ revenue 15% 10% 13% 10% 5% 3% 9%
Change NWC -6329 33426 -11226 -29585 -3403 -3423
 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION
US $ '000

Deprecia Capital Change Terminal

Tahun Revenue EBIT Pajak tion Expenditure NWC Cashflow Value Cashflow

2022 432366 48785 -12196 450 -34589 -3423 -974 -974

2023 449181 50683 -12671 454 -34936 -3423 107 107

2024 466205 52604 -13151 459 -35340 -3423 1150 1150

2025 483466 54551 -13638 465 -35799 -3423 2157 2157
2026 500988 56528 -14132 472 -36315 -3423 3131 3131
2027 518798 58538 -14634 480 -36886 -3423 4074 4074
2028 536921 60583 -15146 488 -37512 -3423 4989 4989
2029 555383 62666 -15666 497 -38193 -3423 5880 5880
2030 574209 64790 -16197 506 -38928 -3423 6747 6747
2031 593424 66958 -16740 516 -39717 -3423 7595 7595
2032 613054 69173 -17293 527 -40559 -3423 8425 8425
2032 631446 71248 -17812 493 -37887 -3423 12619 424617 437236
NPV 244786
Total Shares 1008604.271
Equity Value/Share ($) 0.2426982
Equity Value/Share (Rp) 3640
Equity Value/Share (Rp) - Tanpa Terminal Value 399
 Assumption Notes

Cost of Equity 6.34%

1year indonesian gov't
Rf 5.40% bond yield
Rm-Rf 0.72%
Beta 1.3 Intercept regresi
Terminal Growth 3%

Total Shares 1,008,604.271

Rupiah/Dolar 15000
 year dividen (Rp) div growth Assumption
2018 62 beta 1.3
2019 123 68.5% mkt premium 0.72%
2020 108 -13.0% rf 5.40%
2021 115 6.3% k_equity 6.34%
2022 118.45 3%
Total Value 3550.7
 terminal
year dividen (Rp) div growth Investor CF
value
2018 62 62
2019 123 68.5% 123
2020 108 -13.0% 108
2021 115 6.3% 115
2022 119.6 4.00% 120
2023 124.3 3.90% 124
2024 129.0 3.80% 129
2025 133.8 3.70% 134
2026 138.6 3.60% 139
2027 143.4 3.50% 143
2028 148.3 3.40% 148
2029 153.2 3.30% 153
2030 158.1 3.20% 158
2031 163.0 3.10% 163
2032 167.9 3.00% 168
2033 172.9 3.00% 5339 5512
Value Rp3,727.35
 Input Assumption Metode
beta 1.3 Price to Book Value
mkt premium 0.72% Discounted Cash Flow
rf 5.40% DDM Constant Growth
k_equity 6.34% DDM Multi-Stage Growth
term_growth 3%
Nilai Intrinsik (Rp)
3665
3640
3550
3727