Rural Electrification in Uganda

Master thesis
Rural electrification in Uganda

Powering the Masindi district
Elektrifisering av landsbyer i Uganda: Masindi District
Stud. techn. Britt-Mari Langåsen

Master Program Energy and the Environment
Faculty of Information Technology,

Mathematics and Electrical Engineering
Department of Energy and Process Engineering
Spring 2004
I
Rapportnummer
EPT-H-2004-34
Gradering
The Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Rapportens tittel Dato
Rural electrification in Uganda: Powering the Masindi District 23.06.04

Antall sider og bilag
Elektrifisering av landsbyer i Uganda: Masindi District 110p incl. 22 p attachemnts

Saksbehandler / forfatter Ansv. sign.
Britt-Mari Langåsen
Avdeling Prosjektnummer
Energi og Prosessteknikk
ISBN nr. Prisgruppe
Oppdragsgiver Oppdragsgivers ref.
Ekstrakt
This master thesis is about electrification of a rural district in Uganda.
The aim of the thesis is to:
¾ investigate the electricity needs and power characteristics in a rural district in Uganda
¾ to identify and compare different technology options
¾ to recommend how electrification should proceed
Three different types of trading centres are investigated, and they differ in the number of inhabitants and
load characteristics. Load profiles for the trading centres is made and put into a simulations program
called HOMER. This is an optimization program that in this study use solar systems, diesel generation
and grid extension as means of supplying a rural area with power.
Several situations are simulated; how low the price of solar systems must go to be competitive or how
high the diesel price must be to make solar systems able to compete with diesel generation. Different
loads are also simulated to show how this affects the technology options.
A general discussion about the applicability of grid extension and protection schemes for the network is
given.
It is found that for a large trading centre, grid extension is the best alternative. For a small and medium
community, diesel generation or solar systems are best, depending on diesel price and distance from the
main grid.
Stikkord på norsk Indexing Terms English
Gruppe 1 Elektrifisering av landsbygd Rural electrification
Gruppe 2 U-land Developing countries

Egenvalgte
stikkord Teknologi løsninger Technology options
II
Norges teknisk- Institutt for energi- og

naturvitenskapelige universitet processteknikk
NTNU
H-2004-
HOVEDOPPGAVE
for
Stud.techn. Britt Mari Langåsen
Våren 2004
Elektrifisering av landsbyer i Uganda: Masindi District

Rural Electrification in Uganda: Powering the Masindi District
Background
Like many developing countries especially in Africa, few people in rural areas and towns
of Uganda enjoy access to electricity. Since electricity is seen as an important
prerequisite for development, Uganda initiated the “Energy for Rural Transformation”
program with the support of the World Bank and a number of donor countries. This
program aims at increasing the rural electrification rate from 1% today to 10% by 2010.
Different options exist to meet this aim. Grid extension, the building of mini-grids based
on local generation, and off-grid generation (e.g. PV solar systems) are potential
alternative, whose attractiveness depends on various different factors.
Aim
The aim of this thesis is investigate rural electrification of the Masindi district in Uganda,
to identify and compare different options and to recommend how electrification could
proceed. The analysis should focus on so-called “trading centers”, small towns, as
opposed to the evenly spread farming population. The characteristics of the electric loads
should be taken into account, as well as the investment costs and operating expenses of
different technical solutions.
The analysis should include following elements:

♦ Description of the situation in the trading centers, their electricity needs, current
supply, and power characteristics.
• Selection and description of a proper analysis framework and modeling tool.
• Description of options for rural electrification.
• Description/analysis of the local grid and its ability to deal with local power
supply. Specification of technical upgrades needed.
• Analysis of technical and cost elements of different, “typical” situations and
recommendation of specific solutions. Specification of investment needs and
power characteristics.
• Discussion of the usefulness, applicability and limits of grid extensions and
different types of distributed generation.
III
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nærmere i samråd med faglig ansvarlig.
Besvarelsen redigeres mest mulig som en forskningsrapport med et sammendrag både på
norsk og engelsk, konklusjon, litteraturliste, innholdsfortegnelse etc. Ved utarbeidelsen
av teksten skal kandidaten legge vekt på å gjøre teksten oversiktlig og velskrevet. Med
henblikk på lesning av besvarelsen er det viktig at de nødvendige henvisninger for
korresponderende steder i tekst, tabeller og figurer anføres på begge steder. Ved
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Kandidaten skal rette seg etter de reglementer og retningslinjer som gjelder ved alle
(andre) fagmiljøer som kandidaten har kontakt med gjennom sin utførelse av oppgaven,
samt etter eventuelle pålegg fra Institutt for energi- og prosessteknikk.
I henhold til Reglement for sivilarkitekt- og sivilingeniøreksamen ved NTNU § 8,
forbeholder Instituttet seg retten til å benytte alle resultater i undervisnings- og
forskningsformål, samt til publikasjoner.
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medveiledere/oppgavegivere skal avtales med, og evt. leveres direkte til, de respektive.
Til instituttet innleveres også en komplett kopi (inkl. konsentrerte sammendrag) på CD-
ROM i Word-format eller tilsvarende.
Institutt for energi og prosessteknikk, xx.xx.2004
_________________ ______________________
Ingvald Strømmen Edgar Hertwich
Instituttleder Faglig
ansvarlig/veileder
Kontaktperson(er)/medveileder(e):
Olav Bjarte Fosso, Elkraft
IV
Preface
This master thesis is written at the Department of Energy and Process Engineering,
which is a part of the Faculty of Engineering, Science and Technology at the Norwegian
University of Science and Technology, NTNU. It concludes my Master of Science degree
in Energy and the Environment and was written in the period January 2004 to July 2004.
I would like to thank Professor Edgar Hertwich and Professor Olav B. Fosso for their
guidance during the process of writing this report. I would also like to thank Professor Da
Silva at Makerere University and all the people at UEDCL that helped me in finding
relevant information. I would also like to thank Rachel Arinda and Richard Okou that
helped me during my stay in Uganda and took me into their homes and also thanks to
Lars-Petter Bingh for his support and friendly company during our stay in Kampala.
Finally I would like to thank Ingvill Horgøien, Idun Skorpa Melvær and Tore Bjølseth for
their support and inspiration during this work.
Trondheim, June 23, 2004
Britt-Mari Langåsen
Summary V
Summary
In Uganda, the electrification rate is very low and rural electrification is a part of the
government’s energy policy, introduced in the “New Electricity Act” from 1999 and
continued in the “Rural Electrification Strategy and Plan” from 2001.
The aim of the thesis is to:
¾ investigate the electricity needs and power characteristics in a rural district in
Uganda
This has been done by choosing the modelling tool HOMER which is an optimization
program for rural electrification with both on-grid and off-grid technologies.
Three different “types” of communities have been investigated in this study, three trading
centres that have been divided into small, medium and large. These centres represent
different sizes (about 2000, 10’000 and 20’000 inhabitants) and thereby different power
characteristics. “Typical” load profiles for these centres have been used in the
simulations tool with the technology options photovoltaic, diesel generation and grid
extension to supply power. Different parameters have been changed during the
simulations to see what influences the choice of technology for supplying a rural area
with power. Parameters that have been changed are the price of solar systems and
diesel prices. Different loads have also been simulated.
The main conclusions that can be drawn from these simulations are:
Grid extension is most preferable when there is a relatively large load with a high load
factor or if the trading centre is situated close to the existing main grid. For the large
trading centre, this is the best option.
Diesel generation is the cheapest way of supplying power, but as the diesel prices rise,
then photovoltaic power becomes competing.
Photovoltaic power systems are best suited for small, dispersed loads in trading centres
far away from the main grid. Solar systems are within the energy policy for rural
electrification by renewable energy sources promoted by the government. It can also be
a supplement in medium and large trading centres.
The cost for supplying a rural trading centre is according to this study between
US$40’000 and US$7’400’000.
Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Summary VI
Further studies that are recommended is to investigate a given trading centre and look at
the loads on a household level and se what loads should be covered by for example
solar home systems and which should be connected to a grid. Another option for further
studies is to se what financing mechanisms are best to encourage rural electrification.

Sammandrag VII
Sammandrag
I Uganda har en väldigt liten del av befolkningen tillgång på electricitet och elektrifiseing
av landsbygden är en del a regeringens energi policy och introducerades i samband
med the New Electricity Act 1999 och vidareutvecklades i the Rural Electrification Study
and Plan 2001.
Målet med den här studien är att:
¾ undersöka elektrisitets behoven och last karakteristiken i ett landbygdsområde i
Uganda
¾ att identifiera och jämföra olika teknologi alternativ
¾ att rekommendera hur elektrifiering ska fortskrida
Detta har gjorts genom att välja modelleringprogrammet HOMER som är ett optimiserigs
program for elektrifisering av landsbygden med både nät tillknutna och icke nät tillknutna
teknologier.
Tre olika typer av samhällen har undersökts i denna studie, tre handels center som har
indelats i litet, medium och stort. Dessa center representerar olika storlekar (runt 2000,
10’000 och 20’000 invånare) och därmed olika effekt och energi behov. ”Typiska” last
profiler för dessa center har använts i simuleringsverktyget tillsammans med olika
tekniska løsningar, solceller, diesel kraftproduktion och nätburen electricitet, för att
leverera energi. Olika variabler har ändrats i samband med simuleringarna för att se vad
som påverkar valet av teknologi för att förse ett landsbygdsområde med energi.
Variabler som har ändrats är pris på solceller och diesel. Det har ockå gjorts simuleingar
med olika laster.
De huvudsakliga slutledningarna som kan dras från dessa simuleringar är:

Utbyggnad av kraftnätet är att föredra när det finns en relativt stor last med hög last
faktor eller om handels centrat ligger nära det existerande kraftnätet. For det stora
handels centret är detta den bästa lösningen.
Kraftproduktion från diesel generatorer är det billigaste sättet att producera energi, men
om diesel priserna stiger så blir solsystem konkurrens kraftiga.
Solceller är bäst lämpade för små, utspridda laster i handels centra som ligger långt från
kraftnätet. Solsystem är en del av regeringens energi policy for elektrifiering av

Sammandrag VIII
landsbygden genom förnybara energi källor. De kan också vara ett supplement i medium
och stora handels center.
Kostnaden for att förse ett handels senter på landsbygden med energi kostar enligt den
här studien mellan US$40’000 och US$7’400’000.
Vidare studier som är rekommenderade är att undersöka ett givet handels center och se
på de olika lasterna och se vilka som borde täckas av till exempel solceller och vilka som
borde vara tilknutna kraftnätet. Ett annat fält att undersöka vidare är vilka finansierings
mekanismer som verkar bäst för att främja elektrifiering av landsbygden.

Abbreviations IX
Abbreviations
DG Distributed Generation
UETCL Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited
UEDCL Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Limited
kV kilo Volt
kW kilo Watt
kVA Apparent power
MW Mega Watt
DC Direct Current
AC Alternating Current
PV Photovoltaic
SHS Solar Home System
GTZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbiet
MUK Makerere University Kampala
Exchange rate: US$1 = 2000 Ush

Table of contents X
Table of contents
1 Introduction _________________________________________________ 1
1.1 Structure of the report __________________________________________ 2
2 Background _________________________________________________ 3
3 Methodology ________________________________________________ 6
3.1 Preparations and progression of the work _________________________ 6
3.2 Field studies __________________________________________________ 7
3.3 HOMER ______________________________________________________ 9
3.4 Sensitivity analysis ___________________________________________ 13
4 Power generation and technology options ______________________ 14
4.1 Power generation _____________________________________________ 14
4.2 Alternative energy sources _____________________________________ 16
4.3 Rural electrification technology options __________________________ 17
4.4 Conclusion __________________________________________________ 22
5 Analysis of trading centres ___________________________________ 23
5.1 Masindi district _______________________________________________ 23
5.2 Socio-economic characteristics of Masindi________________________ 24
5.3 Load assessment _____________________________________________ 25
6 Basis and optimal solutions __________________________________ 34
6.1 Simulation basis______________________________________________ 34
6.2 Small trading centre ___________________________________________ 37
6.3 Medium trading centre_________________________________________ 48
6.4 Large trading centre___________________________________________ 56
7 Grid extension ______________________________________________ 65
7.1 Applicability _________________________________________________ 65
7.2 Protection schemes ___________________________________________ 67
8 Discussion _________________________________________________ 70
9 Conclusion_________________________________________________ 73
10 Literature references_______________________________________ 76
11 Appendix ________________________________________________ 78
11.1 Interviews ___________________________________________________ 78
11.2 HOMER input variables ________________________________________ 87
11.3 Attached CD with HOMER files and data _________________________ 110

Table of contents XI
List of tables
Table 4-1 Suggested places construction of new hydro power generation .................................. 15
Table 4-2 Summary of the technology option................................................................................ 22
Table 5-1 Energy consumption for rural households in Uganda ................................................... 26
Table 5-2 Time usage ( in hours) of electrical appliances in rural households ............................. 26
Table 5-3 Present power need in the Masindi region. Based on data from UEDCL..................... 27
Table 6-1 Optimal solutions for Biizi trading centre, constrained demand .................................... 38
Table 6-2 Optimal solutions for Biizi trading centre with an unconstrained demand .................... 38
Table 6-3 Optimal results for variations in diesel price.................................................................. 43
Table 6-5 Solutions when supplying Biizi with PV or diesel .......................................................... 45
Table 6-6 Solutions when powering with PV or diesel .................................................................. 46
Table 6-7 Optimal solutions for Mutunda with a constrained demand .......................................... 48
Table 6-8 Optimal solutions for Mutunda with an unconstrained demand .................................... 49
Table 6-10 Optimal results for variations in diesel price ............................................................... 53
Table 6-11 Solutions when powering with PV and diesel ............................................................. 54
Table 6-13 Optimal solutions for Kiryandongo, constrained demand ........................................... 56
Table 6-14 Optimal solutions for Kiryandongo, unconstrained demand ....................................... 57

1 Introduction 1
1 Introduction
In Uganda and the Masindi district, like in most developing countries, there is an existing
shortage of power. This prohibits economical development. Uganda has in its program
Energy for Rural Transformation (ERT) [19] and through the Rural Electrification
Strategy and Plan from 2001 [18] stated that by the year 2010, 10% of the population
should have access to electricity to enhance their standard of living, as compared to 1%
as of now. After the restructuring of the energy sector, independent power producers
and distributed generation is being supported and encouraged. In the Rural
Electrification Strategy and Plan it is said that “The primary objective of the RF
Strategy is to reduce inequalities in national access to electricity and the associated
opportunities for increased social welfare, education, health and income generating
opportunites.” [18] This is an enormous challenge which Uganda and its government
have to face. The solution to this problem is complex where several technology
alternatives are available and different technologies may be optimal for different areas.
An essential question is what electrification of rural areas will cost and where the
financing will come from. There is also a lack of awareness of renewable energy
technologies that prohibits a wider use of for example solar systems. In light of this aim,
this study might be of help to find out what could be the optimal way of powering a rural
community.
This project about rural electrification was initiated owing to collaboration between the
Norwegian University of Science and Technology and Makerere University. This
collaboration started in 2002. The aim of the thesis is to:
¾ investigate the electricity needs and power characteristics in a rural district in
Uganda
The rural area that has been the main object of this study is Masindi district which lies in
the north-west of Uganda. The study will try to find out what is the optimal way to supply
an area with electricity, through photovoltaic, diesel generation, grid extension or a
combination of these.

1 Introduction 2
The study included six weeks of research in Kampala, Uganda. There I cooperated
mainly with Makerere University, GTZ and UEDCL, but I was also in contact with smaller
firms and employees of MEMD.
With help from the district population office in Masindi, 44 major communities, trading
centres, that are presently without access to grid electricity and that are important for the
development of the district was found. Using UEDCL standards for calculating loads and
an assessment of economical development in rural areas, the respective expected loads
and power characteristics for the trading centres were found. The loads were then,
together with data concerning prices etc, used in a simulation program called HOMER to
do an optimisation and a sensitivity analysis by changing different variables such as
price, distance and load.
1.1 Structure of the report
In the second chapter there will be given a background to the problem that has been
investigated. A methodology chapter about field studies and the chosen simulation tools
will be given in chapter four. A description of the present power situation in the country
and the region together with different technology options for rural electrification will be
presented in chapter five and also how the government in Uganda plans the future
expansion of their power generation. Following in chapter six, the chosen trading centres
will be analysed and a load assessment for them will be performed. Different power
producing options for the district will be explored using an optimization program called
HOMER and a sensitivity analysis will be done to se what impacts changing different
variables may have on the final result. These results are presented in chapter seven. A
general discussion about grid extension will be given in chapter eight.
Finally, in chapter nine and ten, a discussion and conclusion will be drawn from the
results presented earlier. In the appendix interviews and meetings have been included
and more simulation results are presented. A CD with the program HOMER and
simulation files are attached in the end of this report.

2 Background 3
2 Background
Picture 2-1 Map over Masindi district
Getting access to electricity is an important part of enhancing the living standard for the
rural population in Uganda. Presently only a few percent of the people in rural areas
have access to electricity. Since these areas usually have low economic activity as well,
they are not high prioritised for extension of the main grid. It has to be taken into account
that not all areas are favourable for grid extension because of a scattered population
with a low load and people might be mitigating from rural area into towns. Still, several
trading centres might benefit from electrification since they are likely to stay inhabited.
Different factors that affect the electrification rate are a low population density, high
connection cost, power quality and –security. Shortage of electricity aggravates poverty
because it excludes most industrial activities that might develop a rural area by giving
more jobs and interest new investors.
During a demographic transition the response in fertility is not as rapid as the response
in mortality and the population will rapidly grow due to a longer lifespan and still a high
fertility. [20] Because of this, population as an external factor is influencing the energy

2 Background 4
consumption. When the population grow, there is an increase in the demand for energy
services. But this connection could also be seen the other way, that energy patterns
could change the population by supplying better and more accessible energy. This
would relieve women and children from the work of gathering fuel wood when they get
access to other means of energy than traditional biomass. Giving people access to
electricity will also give them energy for lighting purposes. These factors together will
give people in developing areas more time to spend on education and income
generating activities, which can also be performed during evening time due to better
lightning. It is a known fact that women with education and those that has an occupation
gives birth later in life and also have fewer children compared to those without any
education and profession. When moving up the energy ladder and using for example
electricity, then this will relieve the adverse health effects caused by smoke from the
burning fuel wood. The fuel wood is burned for cooking purposes and this means that
mostly women and children are affected who stay indoor. [20]
All in all, getting access to electricity would raise the standard of living and help
development in rural areas of the third world.
The main factors that play a role in the transition to more modern energy usage are
accessibility, the relative price which decides if people can afford the new services and
cultural preferences. [13] An interesting fact is that when people move up the energy
ladder they usually do not complete the transition between the energy sources, but they
tend to hang on the old ones still and using new ones, hence they use more energy than
would have been done if fully transitioned. An example of this is the mother of Rachel
Arinda, whom I worked with in my field studies in Uganda, that explained to me that she
use an electrical stove, a gas stove and a three stone cooker when preparing food. This
is because they al have different positive sides and some foods “have” to be prepared in
a certain way.
In this study I have concentrated on a rural district, Masindi, in the north west of Uganda.
This area was chosen because of; interest from GTZ who where starting a project on
rural electrification of a small trading centre in Masindi together with students from
Makerere University Kampala (MUK), interest from my supervisor at MUK, and also
because it is an underdeveloped part of the country relying mainly on agriculture and it
has few larger industries. Within the area I have looked at 20 trading centres that are

2 Background 5
presently not connected to the main grid and that is of economic and social importance
for the development for the Masindi district. A deeper study have been dperformed on
three different types of trading centres differing in number of inhabitants, distance from
the grid and load profile. This has been done to give an understanding on how different
variables influence the optimization result for a set of different energy sources.

3 Methodology 6
3 Methodology
This chapter is about the methodology used in this study. It includes a description of field
studies in Uganda, but first is a presentation of the progression of the work of the study
and an explanation of why the used simulation programs have been chosen. It will also
give a description of the simulation program used in this study.
3.1 Preparations and progression of the work
The work on this study has continued for 22 weeks. Within this time, 6 weeks where
spent in Uganda for field studies. The purpose of the trip was to find data and
information about distributed generation in Kampala, and how it could be used to
improve the grid stability and to help avoid power shortages. This was the original aim of
the master thesis. This problem definition included the use of a load flow analysis
program called SIMPOW by ABB. The reason for doing a load flow analysis was to se
the load structure, how the power flowed and where rehabilitation of the grid and
generation input was needed to help improve the power quality. After coming to Uganda
and meeting with the supervisors there, it became obvious that information about this
“problem” was hard to achieve. Instead the supervisor at Makerere had a project going
about rural electrification that he was interested that I take part in. This project was
based on finding the optimal way of supplying a rural area with power and was an
optimization problem. The project included the use of an optimization program called
HOMER by NREL. It was also intended to do a load flow analysis here as well, to see
how the grid was affected when new loads from the investigated district was added.
Before travelling to Uganda, some preparations where done in the form of collecting
literature about rural electrification and to get an idea of the program SIMPOW. During
the field studies, information was gathered, some visits to factories where done, but the
main activity where to interview people and to collect data and reports that where not
available in Trondheim. One important aspect was also for me to actually se the energy
situation and to get an understanding of the problems encountered. Back in Trondheim
the simulation work began and also some reading of literature about rural electrification.
After a while, it became obvious that there weren’t enough time, and to little data to do a
load flow analysis over Masindi district.

3 Methodology 7
3.2 Field studies
This thesis included a six week stay in Uganda and these weeks where spent on field
work. The aim of the fieldwork was to receive information by interviewing people and to
assess information that is no available on the internet.
Because of cultural differences between Scandinavia and Uganda, in some situations
there might arise some confusion and misunderstanding in the meeting between the two
parts of the world.
There are several things that differ when searching for information in Uganda, compared
to Norway. One of the most obvious things is that the time perspective is different. When
in Norway one is expected to arrive to a meeting in time, Ugandans seem to have a
wider perception of the concept punctual and it’s not strange to arrive half an hour late
(according to Norwegian standards). This imprecise understanding of time reflects also
in other things, like when sending e-mails of fax. As an example it can be mentioned a
fax that I expected. It was meant to come “in a couple of days” but it arrived several
weeks later. This may also have its base in the fact that if people don’t feel part or
benefit from the result you expect from the data received, then they don’t engage such
amount of time in the matter.
Another difference is the technical resources available. Internet connection is mainly

slow and this results in that most information is gathered by meeting people face to face,
instead of looking it up on the web or contacting people through e-mail. In Masindi
district where I was to search for information, they had no access to internet, but where
reliant on fax machines. This was not available at the district population office, but was a
service that could be bought in the trading centre.
Because computer resources are scarce, most documents are in hard copy, and not in
pdf forms. This means that if a copy is wanted, some hours in front of a copying machine
is to expect. It may also take some days to get access to the reports, since clearances
have to be sent to the appropriate persons in a letter form instead of via e-mail. Because
of this scarcity of internet access and intranets, it’s likely to believe that information
sharing between instances is hard and time consuming as well. Even so, people are
very willing to help, even if they do not know about the problem them self. They are most
times happy to refer to other persons that may be of interest.

3 Methodology 8
Most people have a cell phone so this makes it reasonable easy to get in contact, but
there is a problem that the phones are often shut off, the phone numbers received are
not working or it’s hard to get a reply if an SMS has been sent or if a voice message is
left. This is probably due to difficulties in charging the phones or a shortage in money on
the pre paid cards. As an example here, it can be mentioned that people often “beeped”
me, so I could call them up instead.
One of the most time consuming activities during the day, is trying to get from one point
to another by public transport. Traffic jams are frequent and public transportation operate
on the basis that the bus (or taxi as they call them) leave when full. This can take
anything from no-time up to half an hour. In rural areas, it can take up to two hours
before the bus leave.
All in all, everything usually turns out well in the end, but there might be some frustration
before getting there…
Results achieved from the field studies
♦ Solar data from the Meteorological Institute in Kampala. To get the data, we just went to
the meteorological institute and met a person which a student I was working with had
gone to for data earlier. The data was not up to date because there where no weather
station in Masindi presently, but we got what was available. For the data I had to pay a
10 000 Ush which is almost US$ 5.
♦ SingleLineDiagram of the grid from UEDCL. This data where supposed to be used in a
load flow analysis. Because of a lack of data and time, this part of the thesis has been
changed.
♦ Meeting with local and governmental people and understanding of the way of work in
Uganda
♦ Cost of products available locally, for example PV, generators etc. These data where
gathered by going to different suppliers and asking for prices. Some where willing to give
them to us, others where worried that we would use their retail prices and then give
people an incorrect picture of the actual cost for the products. Some price data in this
report are from reports from UEDCL.

3 Methodology 9
♦ Trading centre data. This was names and population data for the communities that are
important for Masindi district development and that are without electricity. The simulations
re built upon these data. These figures and names took six weeks to receive. I was
promised to have them faxed to Kampala within a week, but after 2 weeks they still hadn’t
come. I called and the lady who where looking for the data promised to have the faxed
within the same week. After 2 more weeks they still hadn’t arrived and I went up to
Masindi town again. I asked for them at the district development office and she said she
had given them to the man, Rashid Yawiya, which was going to find the population data
for the trading centres. I went up to he district population office and found the Mr Yawiya
that where finding the figures and he had received the centre names the day before so he
wasn’t finished. This was now four weeks after they had agreed I should have gotten the
data. I had to return to Kampala and about a week after I had returned to Trondheim, I
got a fax with the data requested.
To think about
To get the most out of the field studies, there are some things that are more important
than others to think about. Some of these things I did, some I figured out during my stay,
and some again, I realized when I got home that I should have done.
♦ Try to get to know some of the cultural differences before going to a foreign country, like
what is the norm for meeting in time and dress codes.
♦ Don’t be in a hurry
♦ Be well prepared and ask specific questions
♦ Demand results and interest for what you are doing.
♦ If possible, wait for the data you requested for at the person you where asking. Otherwise
my Masindi experience can be experienced. See above.
3.3 HOMER
HOMER is a program developed by NREL with the start in 1993 and is an optimization
model for distributed power. It was initiated to address the potential electricity
opportunities in rural villages and to investigate the technical and financial performance
of hybrids given a village load and availability of wind and solar resources etc. [12] It is
offered for free by NREL and can be downloaded at www.nrel.gov/homer. HOMER

3 Methodology 10
stands for Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables. It can design power
systems for both off-grid and grid-connection, with a variety of applications. A decision
that has to be made is what kind of components should be in the system, and what size
and quantities they should have. The program has a database with different technology
options as a base and does an optimization and sensitivity analysis to make an
evaluation of the large number of system configuration options easier. The deciding
factor for the optimal system is based on total net present cost. Input parameters that
describe the technology options like costs, loads and resource availability are put into
the program
In Figure 3-1 the user interface for HOMER can be seen. It’s a windows based program
and very user friendly. The energy sources are added and can then be modified by
clicking on the buttons and new windows will appear. After all the input parameters are
ready, then the simulation can start and finally the result will appear in the result window.
The result can be seen either in tabular or graphic form.
Figure 3-1 User interface of HOMER

3 Methodology 11
Different objects that where used for simulations in this study are: generators, grid, PV,
batteries, converters and loads. To be able to really compare PV and diesel generators
with grid extension, all simulations are done with AC loads, meaning that extra
components such as inverters are needed for PV systems. There are also applications
that run on DC power, but it would be too complicated to compare all these alternatives.
To do a simulation that will be viable for the Masindi area different factors had to be
taken in to account, among them the solar radiation, diesel costs and grid price, several
economic parameters and limitations such as the maximum allowed shortage per year
and minimum part of renewable energy.
Three different solutions for powering the trading centres have been used for the
simulations, namely solar systems, diesel generators and grid extension. Following in
chapter 4.3.1 to 4.3.3 is a description of the systems and advantages and disadvantages
of them.
3.3.1 Critique of HOMER
HOMER was developed in 1997, and is still under the progress of development. The
program has large umber of users, for both school and professional use. It seems to be
widely used in university environments, but also among engineers. On HOMERs
webpage [24] it can be seen that by now, HOMER have been downloaded by 4405
persons from 157 different countries.
HOMER has a wide variety of input variables to make the simulations as precise as
possible, but this also makes the results very sensible for the accuracy of the data that is
found and put in to the program. As I have found, there is no possibility to put in a
development of the prices for example, for a period of time. It is however a possibility to
have several sensitivity variables, so in a way it’s possible to se what system
configurations are optimal over a larger time period, given that one has an idea about
the progression of prices. This is something that is to be upgraded for grid electricity
prices in the next version of HOMER.
The results that come from the simulations in HOMER will not be better than the
accuracy on the input variables. This means that if there are some uncertainties in for

3 Methodology 12
example price, there will be uncertainties in the simulation result as well. The already
existing components can be modified, but when extracting the price curves for the
components, it has to be taken into account that it isn’t certain that a larger component
may follow the same price curvature as a smaller one. This is especially relevant for
solar systems and diesel generators.
A problem with HOMER is weighting environmental concerns. Carbon tax as US$/t and
a minimum of renewable energy output can be put in as parameters. Most third world
countries have no carbon tax though, but a western standard could be put into
simulations or it has to be calculated for qualitative when analysing the results. No
carbon tax has been used in the simulations in this study. Neither have any minimum of
renewable energy been set. This was to find the absolute minimum cost for systems to
supply communities with electricity. Neither is it possible to put in a parameter for an
increase in grid extension costs in those cases that there is a rough landscape making
grid extension more expensive. This can though be done by putting a sensitivity variable
on the cost for grid extension. This has not been done in these simulations.
There have been some problems in finding accurate prices, in particular for the PV
panels. The prices that are used in the program are calculated from prices available on
the market in Uganda today. These prices are for panels of the size from 50W to 75W.
The solar panels that are used in HOMER are in the range from 500W to several
hundred kW and the price has been calculated by just multiplying the numbers of panels
by the price for a small panel. This calculation may be correct if the panels are used as
solar home systems (SHS) with some PV panels at each house. If instead a solution
where solar panels are built to a larger unit in one part of a trading centre, then the
prices will probably be different, i.e. less. This latter solution have not been investigated
and used in this study. The solar data used in these simulations are from the 1960’s, but
they where the only one available for Masindi district at the Ministry of Water, Lands and
Environment, Department of Meteorology, in Kampala. Assuming that the solar radiation
in the district has not changed remarkably the last 20 years, then this should not cause a
problem. To see the solar data for Masindi, see the attached CD.
The load profiles used are made by data from UEDCL and assessments done on during
what hours different household applications are used. There is some risk that these

3 Methodology 13
assumptions may be somewhat wrong, but the same base for the load profiles are used
for the different simulations making them as similar as possible.
3.4 Sensitivity analysis
Here the concept of sensitivity analysis will be explained and why it is important. There
are different questions that need to be answered before anyone is willing to invest in a
new system. One of the most critical ones is what the risk for the investor is. Sensitivity
analysis is used in the simulation program HOMER. The sensitivity variable used is the
PV capital cost multiplier and diesel cost multiplier.
There are several reasons for doing a sensitivity analysis. It is a very good tool when
there are doubts about different variables. These might be uncertainties in expected
load, diesel price etc. By doing this type of analysis it is possible to determine how
important one variable is for the outcome of the simulation and how the result vary with
the value of the uncertain variable, i.e. you determine the sensitivity. It is also possible to
do a sensitivity analysis to determine what the price on for example PV systems have to
be, to be economically compatible with diesel generators and grid extension. This means
that by doing a single analysis, it is possible to simulate several different situations with
different variables.
Questions that can be answered by doing a sensitivity analysis in HOMER:

¾ How low must the price of solar systems be to be competitive with diesel and grid
extension?
¾ How close to the grid must a certain load be for it to be economically viable with
grid extension?
¾ How high must the diesel price be to make PV systems competitive?
¾ What happens if the load differs from the assumed one?

4 Power generation and technology options 14
4 Power generation and technology options

This chapter will try to give an overview of the power generation in Uganda and Masindi
district. Hydro power is the major energy source for electricity production, and potential
hydro sites that are under planning for future expansion are given in 4.1.3. This chapter
will also deal with the power producers that exist in the area and alternative energy
resources. Finally the electrification systems used for simulations in HOMER will be
discussed.
4.1 Power generation

4.1.1 Present power generation in Uganda
Presently the only major power generation is situated

around Jinja, consisting of three power stations;
Nalubaale 180 MW, Kiira 120 MW and Mubuku 14
MW. The latter one is privately owned and supplies
KCCL industries [1]. In the northern regions of Uganda,
which are more isolated due to both long distances and
because they are unsafe areas, the access to
Picture 4-1 The dam at the
electricity is mainly through diesel generation. power station in Jinja
4.1.2 Power producers in Masindi district
There are no major power producers within Masindi district

except for Kinyara sugar works Ltd. Kinyara Sugar Works are
self sufficient regarding electricity due to own power
production. This production is based on the burning of
bagasse and they also use diesel generators as a supplement.
Since there is a substation just outside the factory a
connection to the main grid could easily be established. Due to
low energy prices it is not economically viable for Kinyara
sugar works (according to their own study) to produce more
Picture 4-2 Kinyara
Sugar Works Ltd

energy and sell the excess to the utility. It is though an alternative if the energy prices
rise. They have recently (March 2004) built a new bagasse furnace that can be
transformed to generate power. Kinyara Sugar Works are planning to expand their sugar
production and thereby burn more bagasse. [30]
There are some sawmills in the district, but these are very small and consume their
power from the grid. They are not of such a size that makes them suitable for electricity
generation, and especially not to sell electricity to the grid. [32]
4.1.3 Future power generation
There are several potential generation sites within a reasonable distance from Masindi
district. These are both hydro and geothermal. The possibilities for wind power are rather
scarce as the average wind speed in Uganda is 3m/s [14].
Presently only 380 MW is built at Jinja hydro station but there are plans of building
power stations along the Nile. One problem with this is that several of the suggested
places for building power stations are situated within national parks. This raises
environmental issues and makes financing difficult. Financing are mostly from the World
Bank and foreign governments. There have been assessments made for the power that
can be recovered by hydropower from the Nile along the stretch between Lake Victoria
and Lake Albert and this has come to about 3000 MW. [1]
Some 22 places have also been identified for small hydro power generation and some of
these far away from the existing grid, making them potential energy sources for mini-
grids in rural areas. Today the installed capacity from small hydro is 13 MW. [14]
Places that are suggested for large scale hydro power generation are:
Table 4-1 Suggested places construction of new hydro power generation
Place Year of construction

Kakira 2005
Bujagali 2006-2007
Karuma 2008-2009
Kalagala 2010-2015
Murchison falls 2015

4.2 Alternative energy sources
An alternative type of power generation is by geothermal energy. Some research has

been done in this area in three places in Uganda, whereby one of he places is not far
from the Masindi district. This is Kisoro, close to Lake Albert in Hoima district. The other
two are in Katwe and Buranga. [14]
Presently the research is still concentrating on localising where the geothermal spots are
and doing feasibility studies on these. It is not yet decided what year a geothermal plant
may be up and running. No figure for the assumed power produced can be given at this
point either. [33] The expected output is somewhere around 450 W for Uganda. [14] This
power is meant to supply the surrounding area and the national grid [23]. More detailed
investigations are needed to give confidence to the private sector to make them willing to
invest in these projects.
Wind power is not a preferable alternative in Uganda, due to relatively low wind speeds.
This is valid also in the costal areas. The average wind speed in Uganda is 3 m/s [14].
There are some types of wind generators that work on such low wind speeds, but they
are not studied in this thesis. There are some places around Lake Victoria and on hills
that has a higher average wind speeds, but the high initial costs involved in wind power
systems are also to high for most communities in rural areas.

4.3 Rural electrification technology options
Following are the electrification systems that are used as alternatives in HOMER. They
will here be presented with their benefits and disadvantages to give a better
understanding of the conclusions and recommendations later in this study.
4.3.1 Solar power systems
Solar energy is a resource that is readily available

in Uganda, but due to high investment cost, it’s
not a very widespread technology in rural parts.
As with all technologies, solar energy has both
advantages and disadvantages and some of then
are put up here.
Benefits of solar energy:
♦ Solar modules convert freely available sunlight
directly into electricity. Picture 4-3 Example of a Solar Home
System
♦ Solar systems generate no pollutants or
exhaust gases when producing energy.
♦ Solar energy systems require little maintenance and have an estimated lifetime of over
20 years.
♦ The price of solar panels have fallen over the past years while the oil price have risen,
making the use of solar systems an economic viable solution for powering households.
♦ Solar systems are modular and can easily be expanded when the load increase.
♦ Because off low system voltage the risk of electric chocks are small. The fire risk in
homes and schools are also smaller when using solar systems compared to those lit by
kerosene lanterns.
Disadvantages of solar energy:

♦ The initial cost for a solar system is high by rural standards which make it hard for
people to buy the systems, even though the lifetime cost is lower compared to diesel
generators or kerosene.
♦ The performance of a solar system is dependent on the batteries available on the
market.
♦ Appliances that run on 12 V (PV system voltage) is not readily available on the market
yet.

♦ Solar systems require frequent maintenance.

♦ There are few trained technicians to design, install and maintain solar energy systems.
♦ Solar systems are usually of a very small scale meaning that if there is a relatively high
energy demand the investment cost will be very high.
Besides from PV having a very high cost when the systems become very large, they
also occupy a large area for the solar panels. This means that if solar systems are to
supply a large load, then an option might be to build all the panels as one unit and the
customers might come there and get their batteries charged and taken home to the
respective homes. A positive thing with this system is that cleaning and maintenance will
probably be easier if all the panels are situated at one location. A larger solar system
with a mini-grid is also an option. This has not been included in this study.
Another option is that only the most important loads get power in a community that is
situated far away from the grid. Important loads might be the local health station, the
church and the school. Some street light on the main road / along the shops will also
make the area more secure and create a natural gathering point for the village’s
inhabitants. This option will give smaller systems with less investment cost.
Because that the investment costs for PV systems are so high people can’t afford to
have large systems meaning that the systems will be too small to generate enough
power for any income generating industries, except maybe home based sewing
industries.

4.3.2 Diesel generators
Diesel generators are commonly used in many parts of Uganda. In several parts of the
country diesel generators are the only available electricity source, and in other places
they work as backup generation.
Benefits of diesel generators:
♦ Modular
♦ Relatively low investment cost
♦ Widely available technology
Disadvantages for diesel generators:

♦ Diesel generators give pollutants and
exhaust gases when producing electricity.
They also produce different levels of noise,
depending on type and size.
♦ Diesel is expensive in Uganda, and this is Picture 4-4 Example of a diesel
generator
not likely to decrease in the future.
♦ Needs skilled personnel to do frequent maintenance
♦ Dependence on the availability of spare parts
There are many different sizes of generators and the sizes that have been used in the
simulations are in the range of 4 kW to several hundred kW. They do not follow a linear
cost curve, but become cheaper per kW the higher the rating. Diesel generators work
best when they work on a high load ratio. This means that there is no use in over
dimensioning because they will then use relatively more fuel because of low load ratio.
This is something that has been taken into account in the simulation program. Most
probably there will be a load growth in the trading centre, so the choice of generator size
is very much an optimization problem.
Diesel generators need proper maintenance to work optimal and have a long lifetime.
This requires trained personnel to operate and maintain it. This might be a problem in
rural areas. Another problem is the availability of spare parts such as filters etc. But the
most obvious problem with diesel generation is that it is not a sustainable source of
energy, and will eventually have to be replaced with some other technology. Relying on
a system of diesel generators will make a non oil producing country dependent on the

importation of oil and the world price market of oil that is currently rising [10]. For a poor
country like Uganda, that has all of its petroleum products imported, this is an
undesirable situation. 15% of the country’s export earnings go to import of petroleum, at
the expense of development programmes. [14]

4.3.3 Grid extension
There are several reasons to expand the transmission

and distribution system. [1]
Benefits of grid extension:
♦ Rural electrification
♦ To increase the security of the system by introducing
a more meshed configured system
Picture 4-5 Rural electrification
♦ To allow the safe input from new power plants by grid extension
♦ To reduce losses and improve operational economy
of the network
♦ To fulfil agreements with neighbouring countries.
There are also negative impacts that may arise from an expanded grid compared to local
power production.
Disadvantages with grid extension:
♦ Environmental impacts from building and sustaining the grid.
♦ People may illegally tap the grid and thereby cause poorer quality of the power and this
can also be hazardous for people.
♦ High investment costs
When planning for a grid extension an anti-theft design must be considered. This may be
seen in the choice of conductors. Instead of choosing a cheaper conductor that may be
stolen because its ability to be remelted, an expensive but non remeltable transformer
may be used. It may also be an alternative to use a higher voltage level on the
distribution lines which makes it impossible to use the power directly. (I.e. use 400 V
instead of 230 V) [29] There are also several different types of poles that may be
chosen, since this is also something that is exposed for theft.
Environmental impacts that a grid extension in the Masindi area may cause are[1]:
• Impacts on flora and fauna
• Impacts on drainage and water resources
• Impact on landscape and visual amenity
• Impact on land use and agriculture
• Electric and magnetic fields

• Clearances around lines

In general will the environmental impacts of new power lines occur within the line
corridor or near to it. There will also be some impacts on the nature if access roads have
to be built to get to the line corridor. When travelling around in Masindi district, it can
seen that except for around Kinyara sugar works where they farm sugar cane, large
areas of the countryside are not cultivated. These are mainly grasslands with low to
medium high vegetation except for in Budongo area where there is an old Mahogany
forest. In most parts of the district there will probably be few environmental problems
with grid extension concerning impacts on landscape, land use and agriculture. If lines
are drawn through sugar cropping or otherwise where there is high vegetation, there
must be a high limit of 1.8 m for the crops. This is a safety limit that should be followed.
There are also some impacts from the environment on the transmission lines, for
example growth of vegetation that can touch the conductors and during rainfalls, trees
can fall on the lines. Wind I s also a problem that can cause trees to fall on the lines in
line clearances are not followed. In some areas with salty soils, this can harm the
steyers that support the electric poles that are mostly made out of wood.
4.4 Conclusion
A summary of the technology options are shown in Table 4-2.
Table 4-2 Summary of the technology option

Technology PV Diesel generation Grid extension
Stand-alone Areas with a high
SHS, small scale systems, back-up load, domestic and
Application area applications power industrial
Usual size 50W- 7kW-200kW
Average cost US$280- US$ 7000-34500 US$20000 / km
Available
Sustainable Widely available technology, no
+ technology technology maintenance
High investment
cost, maintenance,
High investment Pollution, noise, deforestation and
costs, frequent frequent use of agricultural
- maintenance maintenance landscape

5 Analysis of trading centres 23
5 Analysis of trading centres

This chapter will give an overview of the socio-economic situation present in Masindi
district and the expected development. It will also give the criteria that where used to find
the different trading centres that where used in this study. Finally the background for the
assumed load profiles will be given and the profiles used in the simulation program will
be presented.
5.1 Masindi district
Masindi district is one of 56 districts in Uganda. It is found in the north-west, close to

Lake Albert, and this district covers an area of approximately 9442.9 sq km. The district
has a total population of 469,865 where the urban population is 0.8% and the rural
population is 99.2%. The main economic activities carried out in the district are
agriculture, trading and others and the household main sources of livelihood are:
subsistence farming, commercial farming, trading, employment income, family support
and others. [2]
Considering that electrification work best as a mean for economic development when the
overall conditions are right for rural income growth and when it is complemented by
social and economic infrastructure development [28], the trading centres where chosen
because of their importance in developing Masindi district. These trading centres, which
are small communities, where chosen with the help from the district population office in
Masindi.
The trading centres studied in this report where chosen because of:
♦ Their importance for the development of Masindi district
♦ They are presently not connected to the main electrical grid and are not likely to be in a
near future
♦ They are likely to continue growing as trading centres
The last point is important as it is no idea to invest in powering areas that are likely to be
mitigated from in a not to distant future, by grid extension. Three different types of
trading centres will be studied further. These have different number of inhabitants and

thereby different loads. The different centres have about 20’000, 10’000 and 2000
inhabitants.
5.2 Socio-economic characteristics of Masindi
A large portion of the population within Masindi district lacks skills or is semiskilled, so
most of the labour force is engaged in farming. Cottage industries engage very few
people and young men therefore turn to petty trade or motorcycle business. Young
women don’t engage in the visible economic activities to a high degree because of a
lack of education.
The most important source of livelihood in Masindi

district is agriculture and about 76% of the population is
engaged in farming activities. Most of the farmers are
family based with an area of 1-2 hectares under
cultivation and only 1 % of the population is employed in
commercial farming. [1] The only major mono cropping
plantation within the district is Kinyara Sugar Works who
crop sugarcane.
Picture 5-1 Small trading

There is only one large industry in the area (Kinyara centre
sugar works) but there are several small-scale industries coming up. The existing and
new ones are agro-based processing industries which include maize and oil milling, rice
hulling and furniture making. At the moment some of these are out of production due to a
lack of spare parts. [1]
When it comes to trading petty trading engages about 6.9% and formal trading employs
about 3% of the economically active population. [2] The commodity traded is crop within
the district and salted and sun-dried fish across the border to the Democratic Republic of
Congo.
The need for electricity in rural areas are mostly for lighting, TV and radio and in the
richer areas also for fans, refrigeration and hot plates. Today candles and kerosene are
used for lighting and the food that is used is bought fresh or needs no refrigeration.

When cooking, charcoal and fuel wood are used. Battery driven radios are used, but
replacement batteries can be hard to get and are relatively expensive. When I visited
Biizi trading centre, a community with a bit more than 2000 inhabitants, the water pump
was driven by hand power and there seemed to be no lights outside any shops.
5.3 Load assessment
Load assessments have been done for the three types of trading centres investigated.
These assessment have been done with data about time usage and type of appliances
from UEDCL, and by assuming the usage of appliances during the day. To see a more
thorough description of the load profiles, see the CD in appendix 11.3.
Using data from UEDCL (see Table 5-2) the energy consumption for different types of
rural households has been calculated. These trading centres have been investigated
further as to represent a small, medium and large trading centre. Estimates given in
Table 5-1 are used for energy consumption for rural households in the simulations in
HOMER. Two different load profiles have been found for the three trading centres, one
for constrained demand and one for an unconstrained demand. Constrained demand
can signify different demands depending on the context. Generally it is a system
demand limited by generation supply for those that are already connected to the grid.
This demand does not really reflect the actual load growth over a given period of time.
Unconstrained demand is what they would use if there where enough generation
capacity and no power shortages. [31] Constrained demand can also signify the power
use according to a certain income level, and that is the meaning I have chosen to use
here. This has been done to represent different loads that can be expected.
Unconstrained use will in this case mean the power use if the customers where at a
higher income level.
These two load profiles have been used in the simulations to find the difference in
optimal systems to supply the trading centre with energy. The constrained demand is not
preferred situation, but one that the customers could “manage” if that is the only
alternative.

Table 5-1 Energy consumption for rural households in Uganda
Type of household Energy consumption (kWh)

Constrained demand Unconstrained demand
Rural high 3.453 6.077
Rural medium 0.612 1.556
Rural low 0,044 0,108
Following are the data from UEDCL for the time usage for different appliances in rural
households. It can be seen that there is a large difference between a rural high and a
rural low household and thereby will the load profiles that are built on these figures be
quite different. There is also quite a large difference between the constrained and
unconstrained demand.
Table 5-2 Time usage ( in hours) of electrical appliances in rural households

Rural high Rural medium Rural low
Constrained Unconstrained Constrained Unconstrained Constrained Unconstrained

demand (h) demand (h) demand (h) demand (h) demand (h) demand (h)
Fan 6 15 5 15
Flat iron 0,5 0,8
Fridge 10 14 6 14
Hot plate 2 3,5
Lighting 4 8 2 6 3 6
Radio 4,9 7 3 6 2 6
TV 1,6 5 2 4
Power
rating for
appliances:
Fan 42 W
Flat iron 1300 W
Fridge 45 W
Hot plate 1000 W
Lighting 8 W
Radio 10 W
TV 35 W
Typical loads in a rural household are lights, small televisions and radio sets and irons.
Other rural loads are electric fencing, water pumping, small industries and institutions,
telecommunication, lighting at schools and churches, small shops and health centre
vaccine refrigeration. In the simulations only the loads from households have been used.
Usually the shops in a trading centre function as homes as well, with the same

standards, so these are included. Excluded are churches, schools and health centres.
These where considered as comparably small loads that will not affect the results to a
high degree.
Based on data from the census of 2002 in Uganda, there are on average 4.8 persons
per household [25]. This information together with Table 5-1 and Table 5-2 will give the
following table for the expected power consumption for the chosen trading centres. The
expected electric energy growth according to a study made by SWECO, is 7.9% per
year during the period 2001-2016 [1] and the consumption for 2010 is also given.
Below is given an explanation of the colours and from what load profiles the demands
calculated.
Table 5-3 Present power need in the Masindi region. Based on data from UEDCL
Energy Energy Energy Energy

consumption consumption consumption consumption
2004 2010 2004 2010
Constrained Constrained Unconstrained Unconstrained
demand demand demand demand
(kWh) kWh kWh kWh
Kiryandongo 4339 6846,55 8563 13513,49
Bweyale 3773 5953,60 7446 11751,02
Kigumba 2097 3309,96 4400 6943,83
Katulikire 2060 3250,19 4321 6818,45
Kabango 645 1017,60 1634 2578,52
Butiaba 604 953,14 1530 2415,17
Masidi Town 577 909,98 1461 2305,82
Mutunda 548 865,22 1389 2192,41
Apodorwa 531 838,03 1346 2123,50
Biiso 518 816,90 1312 2069,95
Kyatiri 516 813,78 1307 2062,05
Nyabyeya 494 779,81 1252 1975,97
Pakanyi 469 739,77 1188 1874,53
Karuma 325 513,01 822 1297,83
Nyakabale 315 496,87 797 1257,00
Wanseko 306 483,26 775 1222,58
Kigezi 202 318,76 510 804,17
Bugoigo 201 316,48 506 798,42
Buliisa 180 284,15 454 716,85
Kijura 176 277,62 444 700,38
Biizi 20 32,20 50 79,04

Pink 0.2*rural high+0.4*rural medium+0.4*rural low

Purple 0.1*rural high+0.4*rural medium+0.5*rural low
Blue 0.4*rural medium+0.6*rural low
Turquoise 0.3*rural medium+0.7*rural low
Green 0.2*rural medium+0.8*rural low
Yellow 1.0*rural low

5.3.1 Small trading centre
A typical load profile for a small trading centre can be seen in Figure 5-1. Two demand
profiles have been done, a constrained demand and an unconstrained demand. As can
be seen from the profile below, the maximum demand will occur during evening time and
there will be a smaller peak in the morning. The minimum load is after breakfast and
during night time. The peak is almost three times higher than the base load. The reason
for this is that there are very few large loads on during the day time in a domestic area
that a small trading centre mainly is. Most of the energy in rural areas is for lighting
purposes and entertainment meaning the energy will be consumed after sunset and
before sunrise i.e. between 6 p.m. and 7 a.m. The wattage behind the peak is mainly for
lighting and radio and a maybe a few television sets. There is almost no load during
night time and that is because that most lights are off besides from security lights and
larger loads like fridges are turned off during the night due to high energy prices.
Expensive loads like security lights and fridges may not even exist in a small rural area
that most often is a poor area as well. This information is found from talking to Ugandans
and after visiting some trading centres and seeing where they may live and the standard
under which they live in.
Load profile
10,00
8,00
6,00
kWh
4,00
2,00
0,00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Time (hours)
Constained Unconstrained
Figure 5-1 Load profiles for Biizi trading centre

The peak effect in the constrained situation is 12.8kW and the energy is 20kWh/day,
calculated from the simulation program HOMER. The same data for the unconstrained
situation is 12.8kW and 55kWh/day, respectively. The peak effect is the same in both
situations, but the energy consumed is largest in the unconstrained situation. This is
natural, because the consumers will not have more appliances in the unconstrained
situation, but they will use the ones they have for more hours per day.

5.3.2 Medium trading centre
The load profile for a medium trading centre can be seen in the figure below. The
medium trading centre is represented by Mutunda, a community with about 10 000
inhabitants. The medium centre is assumed to consist of households that consume
energy according to rural medium and rural low energy pattern. The rural medium
pattern has more appliances than rural low, which can be seen in Table 5-2. The load
profile is created on the basis that the community consist of 60% rural low and 40% rural
medium households.
Load profile
150,00
100,00
kWh
50,00
0,00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Time (hours)
Constrained Unconstrained
Figure 5-2 Load profiles for Mutunda trading centre
In the load profile for Mutunda trading centre it can be seen that the energy consumption
in the unconstrained situation is more than twice the amount in the constrained
condition. (1.393MWh/day compared to 545MWh/day). This difference is mostly due to a
wish to have a fan on at night and also a refrigerator on at day in the unconstrained
situation compared to the constrained. The relatively high base load during night time
that weren’t there in the small example is due to the wish for having a fan on a night. The
unconstrained situation shows that much more power is consumed during the day
compared to the other situation. This is due to a wish for having radios and fans on
during day time.

5.3.3 Large trading centre
A load profile that is developed for a large trading centre can be seen in the figure below.
To represent a large trading centre, Kiryandongo with about 20 000 inhabitants have
been chosen. In this profile, all the alternatives for rural energy demands have been
included. The compositions of demands are 10% rural high, 30% rural medium and 60%
rural low households. Explanation of these alternatives can be found in Table 5-2.
Load profile Kiryandongo
1000,00
800,00
600,00
kWh
400,00
200,00
0,00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Time (hours)
Constrained Unconstrianed
Figure 5-3 Load profiles for Kiryandongo trading centre
In this final profile the load profiles are more complex due to a more complex compound
of households. It can be seen here that the scale on the y-axis is very different from the
two previous examples and even though the trading centre have only twice as many
inhabitants as the medium example, the power drawn is 3 times as much. This trading
centre represents the one with most inhabitants, about 20 000, and it is assumed to be
the richest. This means that they have most appliances and also use them the longest
hours. It’s assumed that not all people in the trading centre have a job and a good
income, but the standard is though higher that in smaller trading centres in more rural
areas. The use of hotplates during lunch and dinner time is spread on four hours since
they will not all be used at the same time, even though Table 5-2 states that hotplates
are only used two hour per day. In this way it will seem that half the population use it two
hours each. The use of hotplates gives part of the explanation of the high peaks as they
are very power consuming. The base load is not much different from the load for the

medium trading centre. The consumers have a fan on during day time or night time,
depending on if it is a constrained or unconstrained demand. The fridge is on during day
time only.
5.3.4 Summary for the trading centres
When seeing the load profiles for these trading centres, the problems with dimensioning
a system to supply these kinds of trading centres can be seen. Because of the low base
load and high peaks that arise under a relatively short period of time, grid extension is
not automatically the best way of supplying power even though there are quite a lot of
inhabitants. It will be seen in the simulation results from HOMER that the price of solar
systems and diesel will have a great impact on the optimal solution and the break-even
grid extension distance.

6 Basis and optimal solutions 34
6 Basis and optimal solutions

The results from the simulations will be presented in this chapter. There will be a more
thorough presentation for the three different types of trading centres investigated and
finally a general discussion about the results found. First the equations that the result
from the simulation program is based on are presented. To get a better understanding of
the results, and to see the detailed simulation input variables, see the HOMER files on
the attached CD in appendix 11.3.
6.1 Simulation basis
From HOMER several results can be found; optimal system configuration, total net
present cost (NPC) and break-even grid extension distance among others. As described
in chapter 3.4 sensitivity analyses is a tool in HOMER that can be used to find results in
risk analysis and system configuration based on the development of prices.
The demand in the simulations is divided in constrained and unconstrained demand.
The main economic output from HOMER is the total NPC. The NPC decides the ranking
of all system options and is calculated according to Equation 1. Net present cost can be
understood as the amount one would have to deposit in a bank today, for the amount to
match a given value some given time from now. If the interest rate is high, then the
required time for the amount to grow to the given value becomes shorter. This means
that for a high interest rate the more short-term projects become preferred. This is
usually bad for alternative energy sources that have a high investment cost and long pay
back time. [21]
Equation 1
C ann ,tot
C NPC =
CRF (i, R proj )
where:
Cann,tot = total annualized cost [$/yr]
CRF() = capital recovery factor
i = interest rate [%]
Rproj = project lifetime [yr]

As can be seen from the equation above, the NPC is calculated from the total
annualized costs. The total annualized cost is in turn calculated from the sum of the
annualized costs of each component in the system plus other annualized costs. The
annualized cost consist of the operating-, capital- and replacement cost over the project
lifetime.
The capital recovery factor (CRF) that is used in the calculations is found according to
Equation 2. The CRF is used to calculate the present value of an annuity.
Equation 2
i (1 + i ) N
CRF (i, N ) =
(1 + i ) N − 1
where:
i = interest rate
N = number of years
The break even grid extension distance is the distance from the existing grid that gives
the same net present cost of extending the grid as the net present cost for a stand-alone
system. [8] This equation is important as is gives an idea of when to expand the grid and
when to build a stand-alone system. The breakeven grid extension distance is calculated
according to Equation 3 [8]:
Equation 3
C NPC * CRF (i, R proj ) − C power * Ltot

D grid =
C cap * CRF (i, R proj ) + C om
where
CNPC = total net present cost of the stand-alone power system [$]
CRF() = capital recovery factor
i = interest rate [%]
Rproj = project lifetime [yr]
Ltot = total primary and deferrable load [kWh/yr]
cpower = cost of power from the grid [$/kWh]
ccap = capital cost of grid extension [$/km]
com = O&M cost of grid extension [$/yr/km]

As can be seen from the simulations and Equation 3, the higher the cost for grid
extension, the shorter the break even grid extension distance gets and a stand-alone
system may be optimal for a trading centre that is situated far away. This of course is
dependent on the load of the trading centre. If the load is rising, then grid extension may
be optimal after all. Unfortunately, the simulation program does not have the feature of a
rising load demand. This makes it difficult to make realistic future prognoses.
The levelized cost of energy (COE) is the average cost of producing electricity and is
another output from HOMER. It is calculated using the following formula:
Equation 4
C ann ,tot
COE =
E prim + E def + E grid , sales
where:
Cann,tot = total annualized cost of the system [$/yr]
Eprim = primary load served [kWh/yr]
Edef = deferrable load served [kWh/yr]
Egrid,sales = total grid sales [kWh/yr]
In the simulations that will be done, Egrid,sales will be equal to zero since there is no
connection to the grid.

6.2 Small trading centre
Biizi trading centre has been chosen to represent a small, rural community. Biizi has
2206 inhabitants according to the census of 2002 [25]. The characteristics for its load
profile is a very peaky load and very little or no load during large parts of the day. The
load profile can be seen in Figure 5-1. A problem with a small trading centre is that if
some consumers decide not to get connected to the new electricity supply system, then
the relative change in load and thereby the risk for the investor will become larger
compared to in a large trading centre where each customer represent a smaller part.
Following are the simulation results for Biizi trading centre. The results will be presented
with the optimal solution given different capital multipliers for the photovoltaic systems.
(PV Cap. Mult.) The first column, “PV Cap. Mult.”, can be understood as the part of the
actual price for PV systems. This is done to represent a change in price for PV systems
and to see how low the price must fall on solar systems for them to be comparable with
diesel systems. The next columns, “PV”, “Gen” and “Converter” columns, give the effect
of the optimal energy sources. “Total capital” is the investment cost for the solution and
“Total NPC” is the total net present cost which is explained in chapter 6.1. “COE” is the
levelized cost of energy is that is the average cost of producing electricity and the
column “Renewable fraction” gives how much of the total installed energy is renewable.
In the simulations a cost of US$0.09 / kWh is used. [26] For other input variables, see
appendix 11.2. “Capacity shortage” is the difference between the actual operating
capacity that the system can provide and the required operating capacity. Finally, the
“Diesel” column tells how much diesel is used and the “Gen (hrs)” tells how many hours
the respective diesel generators are running.
As can be seen in Table 6-1 and Table 6-2, the amount of PV depend strongly on the PV
price. Later it will be seen that they also depend on the diesel price and the load.

6.2.1 General solutions
The optimal solutions for Biizi when there is a constrained demand are as given in Table
6-1. In the simulations, energy demand of 20kWh/d and 12.8kWp has been used. Input
parameters can be seen in appendix.
Table 6-1 Optimal solutions for Biizi trading centre, constrained demand
PV
Cap. PV Gen2 Converter Total Total
Mult. (kW) Gen1 (kW) (kW) (kW) capital NPC
1.00 4 4 $ 8,000 $ 40,015
0.50 4 4 $ 8,000 $ 40,015
0.10 4 4 $ 8,000 $ 40,015
0.01 18.0 4 4 4 $ 9,811 $ 39,414
PV
Cap. COE Renewable Capacity Gen1 Gen2
Mult. ($/kWh) fraction shortage Diesel (L) (hrs) (hrs)
1.00 0.453 0.00 0.13 2,379 1,095 944
0.50 0.453 0.00 0.13 2,379 1,095 944
0.10 0.453 0.00 0.13 2,379 1,095 944
0.01 0.446 0.84 0.13 2,216 1,095 766
The different results give almost the same total NPC, independent of the PV capital
multiplier. The reason that the different solutions have almost the same total NPC is that
the optimal systems are the same, except for the case when the PV capital multiplier is
0.01. The price for 20 kW PV is in that option very small and will affect the total cost little.
The optimal power generation in these options will therefore be diesel generation.
The optimal solutions for Biizi trading centre when there is an unconstrained demand are
as in Table 6-2. The simulation program has calculated with an energy use of 55 kWh/d
and 12 kWp. Other input parameters can be seen in appendix.
Table 6-2 Optimal solutions for Biizi trading centre with an unconstrained demand
PV
Cap. PV Converter Total Total
Mult. (kW) Gen1(kW) (kW) capital NPC
1.00 7 $ 7,000 $ 94,075
0.50 7 $ 7,000 $ 94,075
0.10 15 7 7 $ 20,245 $ 91,818
0.01 35 7 7 $ 12,285 $ 75,130

PV
Cap. COE Renewable Capacity Diesel Gen1
Mult. ($/kWh) fraction shortage (L) (hrs)
1.00 0.414 0.00 0.16 6,282 3,285
0.50 0.414 0.00 0.16 6,282 3,285
0.10 0.398 0.67 0.15 5,032 2,747
0.01 0.323 0.84 0.14 4,549 2,398
For the unconstrained demand, the solutions are a bit different. It can be seen that the
investment cost increase when the PV capital multiplier decrease, but the total NPC
decrease at the same time. The reason for the increased capital cost is the increase in
installed solar power. It can be seen from these results that when PV is simulated with
its actual, present cost, no PV power will be used and only a 7 kW diesel generator will
produce energy. The capacity shortage is 0.16 and the total Net Present Cost (NPC) is $
94,075. To have no capacity shortage, the total NPC will arise to $ 108,677 and two
diesel generators, 4kW and 7kW respectively, will be used. (See Biizunconstrained.hmr
on the CD) The cost for PV systems has to come down to a tenth of the original cost for
it to be optimal to use PV according to the simulation. In this solution 15 kW of PV will be
used together with two 7 kW diesel generators. The total capital cost is more than twice
the first option, but the total NPC is lower and this decides the optimum in HOMER. The
reason that the net present cost goes down even though the capital cost rise, is that as
more PV comes into the system, the operating costs will go down, compared to a system
with diesel generation. A diesel system has a relatively low investment cost, but high
operating cost. Therefore the annualized costs that are the base for the net present cost
will be high for a diesel system, but lower for the solar system.
6.2.2 Load profiles and unmet load
In the following figures, unmet load, capacity shortage and excess electricity is shown
compared to the load. Unmet load is the electrical load that cannot be met because of to
little generation. The capacity shortage is, as explained above, the difference between
the actual operating capacity that the system can provide and the required operating
capacity. A system has often a certain amount of operating reserve to cover unexpected
loads. The excess electricity is surplus energy that occurs when there is a surplus of
power being produced and no load is to be served. The excess electricity has to be
dumped in a load called a dump load, if there isn’t enough battery to absorb it all. A
dump load may be a set of light bulbs or a resistive heater.

The loads in the constrained situation are

peaky and there are only two peaks per day, a
smaller in the morning and a large in the
evening. When looking at these figures from the
simulations with the constrained demand in
Figure 6-1 and Figure 6-2, it can be seen that
there is almost no unmet load and capacity
shortage, in both cases. In the case of PV
multiplier 0.01, there will be an over dimensioning Figure 6-1 Load profile from simulations with
of the system and a lot of excess energy. This will constrained demand. PV multiplier 1.0
actually mean that a lot of the produced energy

has to be used in a capacitor bank and without
any real use. This means that the price of PV
doesn’t need to be that low for PV to be an
economically viable alternative.
Figure 6-2 Load profile from simulations with

constrained demand. PV multiplier 0.01
The following figures are from a simulation with

an unconstrained load profile. For such a small
trading centre, it can be seen that the load is
very “peaky”. It can also be seen that in the
system that has a PV multiplier of 0.01, there
will be a lot of excess electricity, compared to
none in the case with a PV multiplier of 1.0. At
the same time the unmet load and the capacity
shortage will be less in the case with the low
PV price. This is because the system has more
Figure 6-3 Load profile from simulations
installed capacity.
with unconstrained demand. PV multiplier
1.0

In Figure 6-3 it can be seen that during evening

peaks, there is both capacity shortage and
unmet load. This result is for a simulation with
the actual cost of PV. When the cost for PV is
down to a hundred, then the situation is
different as can be seen in Figure 6-4. When
the PV price is down to a hundred, four times
as much solar power is installed. A 4kW diesel
generator is also installed in this situation. All
together there will be excess electricity that has Figure 6-4 Load profile from simulations with
to be dumped during the low loads during the unconstrained demand. PV multiplier 0.01
day.
6.2.3 Break even grid extension distance
It can be seen from the break even grid extension distance that the distance changes
with a changing PV price. Logically, the break even distance becomes smaller when the
PV price decreases. Since it is relatively expensive with grid extension, it will become
more economically viable to build PV and diesel generator systems closer to the grid if
the price for these stand-alone systems gets lower.
The break even grid extension distances are in

the constrained condition 1.25 km and 1.23 km
for PV multiplier 1.0 and 0.01 respectively. The
total NPC is around $ 40 000 for both
situations.
In the results from the constrained demand, the

total NPC is almost the same weather the PV
multiplier is 1.0 or 0.01. This is because the load is
Figure 6-5 Break even grid extension distance.
small and the systems are the same, except for the Constrained demand, PV multiplier 1.0
PV.
(See Table 6-1) The PV prices

are so low though, that they barely have an

impact on the result.
When there is an unconstrained demand, the

break-even grid extension distances become
longer. The break even grid extension distance
for this small trading centre is between 2 and 3
kilometres with the given scenario.
Figure 6-6 Break-even grid extension distance.

If the results from the simulations with unconstrained Constrained demand, PV multiplier 0.01
demand are compared, it can be seen that the
total NPC is lower when the PV capital
multiplier is 0.01 even though more diesel
generation capacity is installed. This is because
in this situation the system has a lot of PV,
which has a very low cost (1/100 compared to
the actual situation) but also diesel generators
to cover the load as much as possible. With a
low cost on PV, the net present cost will be lower

Figure 6-7 Break-even grid extension distance.
than in the situation with only diesel generators who Unconstrained demand, PV multiplier 1.0
consume (expensive) diesel.
If the constrained demand is compared to the

unconstrained demand, it can be seen that the
break-even grid extension distance is shorter in
the constrained situation. This is reasonable
because in the constrained demand, the load is
smaller and the total NPC is lower than in the
unconstrained demand but the investment cost
for grid extension is still the same and relatively
high for such a low load. The pay back time for grid Figure 6-8 Break-even grid extension distance.
Unconstrained demand, PV multiplier 0.01
extension will be very long with few customers.

6.2.4 Variations in diesel price
When the diesel price rise, then PV systems become more and more economically
viable for small trading centres. The systems become more expensive if it’s calculated
with the present price of solar systems, so accordingly the break-even grid extension
distance become longer. It is shown by simulations that as diesel prices rice, stand-
alone systems based on solar systems are a good option. As the price for solar systems
a probable to decrease as well, this makes the solution of supplying a trading centre with
PV even better. Unfortunately, complicated simulations with so many variables can’t be
done in HOMER yet. Therefore, the following simulations are done with an increase in
diesel price but otherwise the same input parameters as in the previous simulations.
The diesel prices have been simulated up to three times the present price. From today’s
price of US$ 0.8, through US$ 1.6 up to US$ 2.4. (1DP = 1 times diesel price = US$0.8
etc.)
Cost as a function of diesel price Constrained
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
US$
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Total capital Total NPC
DG1 DG2 DG3
Figure 6-9 Cost as a function of diesel price when there is a constrained demand
Table 6-3 Optimal results for variations in diesel price
PV Gen1 Gen2 Gen3 Converter

(kW) (kW) (kW) (kW) Battery (kW)
1DG 4 4
2DG 5.0 20 8.0
3DG 5.0 20 8.0
When there is a constrained demand, the optimal solutions will change when the diesel
price become twice the price today (US$0.8). As can be seen in Figure 6- the investment
costs will be much higher (more than three times) when the diesel price rise, but the net
present cost will be almost the same even though the diesel price is higher. This is
because there will now be a much less usage of diesel which constitute the major part of

the operating costs. The running costs for solar systems are almost non-existing. The
reason for the high investment costs is that solar power is presently expensive to
purchase.
Cost as a function of diesel price Unconstrained
250000
200000
150000
US$
100000
50000
0
DG1 DG2 DG3
Figure 6-10 Cost as a function of diesel price when there is an unconstrained demand

1DG 7
2DG 7
3DG 7
In the unconstrained condition, the solutions are not affected by a change in diesel price
up to three times the present price. This means that according to these simulations
energy from PV systems will not be an optimal way of supplying energy to Biizi trading
centre when there is an unconstrained demand. An objection to this is that when looking
at the simulation results in HOMER, it can be seen that the NPC is not so much higher
when 5kW PV is installed and the break-even grid extension distance is almost the
same, about 8 km. (See BiiziunconstrainedDG3.hmr on the CD) Adding environmental
concerns into the calculations, PV systems may be an option for powering Biizi at a
unconstrained demand after all.

6.2.5 Only PV or diesel
There have also been simulations done on what the cost would be to supply Biizi trading
centre if only diesel generation or solar systems are available. This have been done to
see the differences and to be able to better compare the two options.
For Biizi trading centre with a constrained demand, the following results have been
found.
Table 6-5 Solutions when supplying Biizi with PV or diesel
PV
Cap. PV Converter Total Total COE Renewable Capacity
Mult. (kW) Battery (kW) capital NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage
1.00 5.0 20 10 $ 25,040 $ 42,666 0.492 1.00 0.12
0.50 5.0 20 10 $ 15,040 $ 31,570 0.364 1.00 0.12
0.10 5.0 20 10 $ 7,040 $ 22,693 0.262 1.00 0.12
0.01 30.0 10 10 $ 5,940 $ 20,417 0.244 1.00 0.20
Gen1 Gen2 Total Total COE Renewable Capacity Diesel Gen1 Gen2
(kW) (kW) capital NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage (L) (hrs) (hrs)
4 4 $ 8,000 $ 40,015 0.453 0.00 0.13 2,379 1,095 944
From this table it can be seen that supplying the community with solar power almost give
the same net present cost as for diesel generation. The capital cost is though three
times higher which for a poor community may be a high obstacle to overcome. Since the
net present cost is almost the same for the two options the break even grid extension
distance is almost the same for diesel and PV 1.0. When looking at the simulation
results, it can be seen that for PV multiplier 1.0 there is little capacity shortage and very
little unmet load. There is a little excess electricity in the middle of the day. For the diesel
option there is little unmet load and capacity shortage as well, and no excess electricity.

Similar results have been found in simulations with an unconstrained demand.
Table 6-6 Solutions when powering with PV or diesel
PV
Cap. PV Converter Total COE Renewable Capacity
Mult. (kW) Battery (kW) capital Total NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage
1.00 15.0 35 7 $ 115,695 $ 157,701 0.714 1.00 0.19
0.50 15.0 35 7 $ 61,695 $ 97,396 0.441 1.00 0.19
0.10 15.0 35 7 $ 18,495 $ 49,152 0.222 1.00 0.19
0.01 25.0 25 7 $ 8,155 $ 36,822 0.167 1.00 0.19
Gen1 Total Total COE Renewable Capacity Diesel Gen1

(kW) capital NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage (L) (hrs)
7 $ 7,000 $ 94,075 0.414 0.00 0.16 6,282 3,285
From this table it can be seen that supplying a larger load as with the unconstrained
demand, the NPC for the diesel system is much lower than the PV system with multiplier
1.0. The price of PV systems must be half the present price to be able to compete with
diesel systems. Because of the much higher net present cost for PV with multiplier 1.0,
the break even grid extension distance will be longer for this option compared to the
diesel system. From the simulation results it can be seen that the unmet load and
capacity shortage is almost the same for the two options, but that the excess electricity
is much higher during the day for the PV option.
As a small conclusion of the solutions for a small trading centre, the following can be
said. Diesel generation is the cheapest alternative, but if the price of diesel rise (which is
very likely with today’s oil situation) then solar systems may be a cost effective way of
producing electricity. Especially for a small trading centre, with a load profiles with large
peaks and little ground load, PV systems are a viable option if the relative high
investment cost can be covered. When adding environmental concerns, diesel
generation comes out negatively. If the trading centre is out of a certain distance from
the main grid, grid extension is not a good alternative as a start. It can be seen by the
simulation result that the break even grid extension distance is very short meaning that
for such a small community and scattered load, stand alone systems is a very good
alternative.
If an investment is done in this trading centre according to the unconstrained demand,

but the customers only can afford according to the constrained demand, alternatively,

that fewer customers connect to the system, then this will represent a risk for the
investor. From the simulation results it will be seen that the total capital cost will increase
from $7000 to $8000, but the total NPC will decrease from $94000 to 40000. This is
quite a difference and constitutes a large risk. In this case a positive risk, but if the
investment costs where based on the constrained demand, price difference could
constitute a large problem. In this case the system dimensioned for a constrained
demand would probably be able to serve an unconstrained demand with the difference
that the generators would have longer operating hors and consume more diesel. Some
more unmet load could be calculated. The cost of energy for the constrained demand is
$0.454 compared to $0.414 for the unconstrained demand.

6.3 Medium trading centre
To represent a medium trading centre, Mutunda trading centre has been chosen. This
trading centre has according to the census of 2002 9704 inhabitants [25]. To see the
load profile for Mutunda, se Figure 5-2. Mutunda trading centre has in the unconstrained
demand a load during most parts of the day, but for the constrained demand there is a
small peak during the morning, a larger one during the middle of the day and a high
peak during evening time. In the medium trading centre, each consumer does not
represent a large part of the total number of consumers, as it did in the small trading
centre.
Following are the simulation results for the medium community. Here it will be shown
that the optimal solution is much more dependent on the diesel price than the small
trading centre. But still the fraction of solar energy is very much dependent on the price
of photovoltaic as well.
6.3.1 General solutions
The optimal solutions when there is a constrained demand are as given in Table 6-7.
The energy demand used in the simulations is 545kWh/d and a 194kWp. The input
parameters can be seen in appendix 11.2.
Table 6-7 Optimal solutions for Mutunda with a constrained demand

PV
Cap. PV Gen2 Converter Total
Mult. (kW) Gen1 (kW) (kW) Battery (kW) capital Total NPC
1.00 66 66 $ 33,000 $ 917,137
0.50 66 66 $ 33,000 $ 917,137
0.10 100 66 250 50 $ 157,095 $ 588,957
0.01 350 66 250 50 $ 102,055 $ 453,560
PV
Cap. COE Renewable Capacity Diesel Gen1 Gen2
Mult. ($/kWh) fraction shortage (L) (hrs) (hrs)
1.00 0.372 0.00 0.06 78,32 4,38 733
0.50 0.372 0.00 0.06 78,32 4,38 733
0.10 0.250 0.76 0.12 21,671 1,147
0.01 0.192 0.93 0.11 17,598 932

As can be seen from the result, there will be no PV in the two first systems, resulting in
the exact same solutions. When the price is down to a hundred there will be a lot of
excess electricity as will be seen later and the system will be over dimensioned. The
optimal solution for Mutunda trading centre when there is a constrained demand is
therefore to supply it by diesel generation.
The optimal solutions when there is an unconstrained demand are as in Table 6-8. The
demand in the calculations has been set to 1393kWh/d and 190kWp. The energy
demand in the unconstrained demand is then more than twice the energy demand than
in the previous example. This can foremost be seen in the number of operating hours for
the diesel generators.
Table 6-8 Optimal solutions for Mutunda with an unconstrained demand

PV
Cap. PV Gen1 Gen2 Converter Total
Mult. (kW) (kW) (kW) Battery (kW) capital Total NPC
1.00 40 40 1 0.6 $ 27,835 $ 1,856,216
0.50 50 66 10 50.0 $ 243,495 $ 1,824,035
0.10 300 66 150.0 $ 330,595 $ 1,421,868
0.01 450 66 150.0 $ 108,355 $ 1,106,953
Renew
PV COE able
Cap. ($/k fractio Capacity Diesel
Mult. Wh) n shortage (L) Gen1 (hrs) Gen2 (hrs)
1.00 0.323 0.00 0.17 157,785 8,760 5,344
0.50 0.328 0.21 0.20 134,881 8,376
0.10 0.253 0.70 0.17 92,469 5,961
0.01 0.197 0.79 0.17 86,723 5,569
In this solution it can be seen that PV power is used in all solutions except the first
option. Owing to the high energy demand, the generators have high levels of operating
hours. It can be seen, that like in the previous examples, the price of solar systems must
come down quite a bit to compete with the diesel systems.

Following are figures to illustrate the load profile, unmet load, capacity shortage and
excess electricity. For an explanation of these terms, see chapter 6.2.2. From Figure 6-
and Figure 6- it can be seen that for the PV multiplier 1.0 the load is almost fully met and
with capacity shortages only at the highest peaks during the evening. There is some
excess electricity, but not nearly as much as when the PV multiplier is 001.
Figure 6-11 Load profile from simulations Figure 6-12 Load profile from simulations with
with constrained demand. PV multiplier 1.0 constrained demand. PV multiplier 0.01
For the unconstrained demand there is a much higher fraction of unmet load and
capacity shortage when the PV multiplier is 1.0 compared to the same multiplier in the
constrained demand. The load profile also has a higher load factor and consumes much
energy. According to this simulation there will be many customers that have to be load
shed during the high peaks. In the example where the PV multiplier is 0.01 there is a lot
of excess electricity that has to be dumped.
Figure 6-13 Load profile from simulations with Figure 6-14 Load profile from simulations with
unconstrained demand. PV multiplier 1.0 unconstrained demand. PV multiplier 0.01

The break even grid extension distances are

naturally longer for this medium trading centre
compared to the small community. There are
also large differences in distances between the
actual cost of PV and the option with PV
multiplier of 0.01. (28 km compared to 9 km) It
can though be seen that for a trading centre of
this size, the grid can e extended quite far and
Figure 6-15 Break even grid extension
it is still more economic than to build a stand alone distance. Constrained demand, PV multiplier
system. 1.0
For the unconstrained demand the break even

distances are even longer (50 km and 22 km)
because the systems are here even larger and Figure 6-16 Break even grid extension
distance. Constrained demand, PV
therefore the systems more expensive. Because of its multiplier 0.01
size and high energy demand, the community
use a lot of diesel with gives the high net present
cost. This means that grid extension is really a
viable option, given that the load profile will be
more or less as expected during the simulations.
The fact that the trading centre has a relatively
high load factor during the day when if there is an
unconstrained demand, also makes it a good
candidate for grid extension. To have a high load factor

means that the average load is close to the maximum distance. Unconstrained demand, PV
multiplier 1.0
load. The load factor is not very high here, but definitely
higher that in the other options.

If the break even distances for the constrained

demand is compared to those for the
unconstrained demand it can be seen that they
are half the distance compared to the
unconstrained. This seems logical since the load
is less than half to.

distance. Unconstrained demand, PV
multiplier 0 01
6.3.4 Variations in diesel price
For the medium trading centre there have also been done simulations for what happens
when the diesel prices rise. The same increases in diesel price as in chapter 5.3.1 have
been used.
Cost as a function of diesel price Constrained
2500000
2000000
1500000
US$
1000000
500000
0
DG1 DG2 DG3

1DG 40 66
2DG 5 66 40 5
3DG 5 66 40 5
With the constrained demand in the medium trading centre, the simulations show that
when the diesel price rises, there will be possibilities for solar systems to be
economically viable. In the constrained demand the installed PV will not cover much of

the load and it can be seen from Figure 6- that the total NPC will be high for the energy
systems as the diesel price rise. This is as mentioned before mostly due to the operating
cost for the diesel generators.
Cost as a function of diesel price
5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
US$
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
DG1 DG2 DG3
Gen1 Gen2 Gen3 Converter

PV (kW) (kW) (kW) (kW) Battery (kW)
1DG 5 40 40 5 10
2DG 5 7 66 2 5
3DG 90 4 40 24 10 75
For the unconstrained demand there is a dramatic change in the installed capacity of PV
when the price of diesel rise to three times the present. As can be seen from Figure 6-
the total NPC has not increased as much between change in diesel price from US$1.6 to
US$2.4 as between the price lift from US$0.8 to US$1.6. This is because now half of the
peak load can be covered by the installed effect of PV, which has very low running costs
that in turn affect the net present cost.
6.3.5 Only PV and diesel
The following results are from simulations done if only diesel generation or solar systems
where available. The main conclusion that can be drawn from this is that in general,
diesel generation is the cheapest alternative.

If there is a constrained demand, the following results was achieved:
Table 6-11 Solutions when powering with PV and diesel
PV
Cap. PV Converter COE Renewable Capacity
Mult. (kW) Battery (kW) Total capital Total NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage
1.00 125 400 100 $ 1,170,995 $ 1,558,089 0.717 1.00 0.19
0.50 125 400 100 $ 632,995 $ 956,495 0.440 1.00 0.19
0.10 125 400 100 $ 202,595 $ 475,220 0.219 1.00 0.19
0.01 200 250 100 $ 89,855 $ 352,859 0.162 1.00 0.19
Gen1 Gen2 Total COE Renewable Capacity Diesel Gen1 Gen2

(kW) (kW) capital Total NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage (L) (hrs) (hrs)
40 66 $ 30,240 $ 777,266 0.340 0.00 0.15 65,917 3,222 1,891
The total NPC for supplying the Mutunda community with only solar power is much
higher than with diesel, about twice the cost, and the upfront investment cost is much
higher.
If there is an unconstrained demand the following results is achieved:
PV
Mult. (kW) Battery (kW) Total capital Total NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage
1.00 325 600 150.0 $ 2,978,495 $ 3,814,217 0.703 1.00 0.19
0.50 325 600 150.0 $ 1,560,495 $ 2,228,461 0.411 1.00 0.19
0.10 325 600 150.0 $ 426,095 $ 959,856 0.177 1.00 0.19
0.01 675 400 100.0 $ 154,155 $ 642,310 0.117 1.00 0.20
Gen1 Total COE Renewable Capacity Diesel Gen1

(kW) capital Total NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage (L) (hrs)
88 $ 19,412 $ 2,048,261 0.344 0.00 0.13 178,878 8,760
For the unconstrained demand the solution is more or less the same as in the above
example. The total NPC is much higher for the PV system and the investment cost is
almost infinitely higher. A thought is though that in these simulations the costs for the
solar systems is the cost for solar home systems. In reality, if such a large trading centre
would be supplied with power from solar power, it would probably be done in another
way.

If investments where made and another demand than the predicted would happen for
the medium trading centre, then a similar result as he one in the small trading centre
would occur, but with larger mounts. If the demand is calculated to be the unconstrained,
but the constrained occur, then the investment costs would be more ($33000 to $28000),
but the net present cost would be calculated to be much higher. As in the previous
example, the net present cost would be only half, $917000 compared to 1 850 000. If the
opposite occurs, then the expenditures will be higher, but the revenue from more
customers will also be there. As there is two 66 kW generators in the constrained
demand, but only two 40 kW generators in the unconstrained demand, it can be
assumed the load from an unconstrained demand could be covered with the constrained
solutions and that like previous, the generators would operate for longer hours. The cost
of energy is more expensive for the constrained demand, $0.372 compared to $0.323
based on respective demands.

6.4 Large trading centre
To represent a large trading centre, Kiryandongo has been chosen. This trading centre
had according to the census of 2002 21852 inhabitants. [25] The load profile for
Kiryandongo can be seen in Figure 5-3. Kiryandongo has two large peaks during
morning and evening and high energy consumption.
6.4.1 General results
The optimal solutions for Kiryandongo with a constrained demand are given in Table
6-13 and in the simulations a energy demand of 3.8MWh/d and a peak of 1241kWp have
been used. The input parameters can be seen in the appendix.
Table 6-13 Optimal solutions for Kiryandongo, constrained demand

PV
Cap. PV Gen2 Gen3 Converter
Mult. (kW) Gen1 (kW) (kW) (kW) (kW) Total capital Total NPC
1.00 500 120 66 $ 86,160 $ 4,738,761
0.50 500 120 66 $ 86,160 $ 4,738,761
0.10 1000 160 200 200 500 $ 1,154,325 $ 3,888,303
0.01 2500 160 200 200 800 $ 601,485 $ 2,756,877
PV
Cap. COE Renewable Capacity Diesel Gen1
Mult. ($/kWh) fraction shortage (L) (hrs) Gen2 (hrs) Gen3 (hrs)
1.00 0.293 0.00 0.13 440,163 1,748 3,170 4,430
0.50 0.293 0.00 0.13 440,163 1,748 3,170 4,430
0.10 0.258 0.74 0.19 245,409 2,875 1,489 845
0.01 0.183 0.89 0.19 198,662 2,037 1,112 766
The optimal solutions for Kiryandongo with a constrained demand are given in Table
6-13 and in the simulations a energy demand of 6.3MWh/d and a peak of 1196kWp have
been used. The input parameters can be seen in the appendix.

Table 6-14 Optimal solutions for Kiryandongo, unconstrained demand

PV
Cap. PV Gen2 Gen3 Converter
Mult. (kW) Gen1 (kW) (kW) (kW) Battery (kW) Total capital Total NPC
1.00 5 160 120 200 75 100 $ 158,135 $ 7,398,032
0.50 5 160 120 200 75 100 $ 148,135 $ 7,388,032
0.10 1000 40 160 120 75 1000 $ 1,309,975 $ 6,379,532
0.01 1200 40 160 120 50 1000 $ 533,985 $ 5,588,750
PV
Cap. COE Renewable Capacity Diesel Gen1 Gen2
Mult. ($/kWh) fraction shortage (L) (hrs) (hrs) Gen3 (hrs)
1.00 0.298 0.00 0.20 661,66 4,943 6,377 2,767
0.50 0.298 0.00 0.20 661,66 4,943 6,377 2,767
0.10 0.259 0.65 0.20 355,625 3,541 3,564 4,191
0.01 0.227 0.70 0.20 339,778 3,333 3,476 3,952
The most apparent with the results from the simulations of Kiryandongo trading centre, is
that the break even grid extension distance is very far. This indicates that supplying a
rural trading centre of this size with a stand alone system as designed in this simulation
is very expensive. This becomes more obvious when comparing the energy demand to
that of Biizi trading centre, which represents a small community. The energy demand
here is under the constrained condition over 4 MWh/day, compared to xxx. This gives a
much higher demand for energy which is a corner stone for making grid extension
economically viable.

During the high peaks in the evening there seem to be some unmet load and capacity
shortage for a system with constrained demand and a PV multiplier of 1.0. When the PV
price goes down to a hundred there is a lot of excess energy but also some capacity
shortage and unmet load even here. This means though that there is a lot of solar power
and diesel generation installed, it is not enough to fully cover the accumulated effect. In
the simulations a maximum annual capacity shortage is set to 20%.
Figure 6-21 Load profiles for simulation with Figure 6-22 Load profiles for simulation with
constrained demand. PV multiplier 1.0 constrained demand. PV multiplier 0.01
When there is an unconstrained demand, it seems to be a higher fraction of capacity

shortage and unmet load. When the PV price is low, there is not so much excess energy
as with the constrained demand. It can be seen from the tables above that there is less
capacity intalled in the unconstrained situation, which can be seen from these figures.
Figure 6-23 Load profiles for simulation with Figure 6-24 Load profiles for simulation with
unconstrained demand. PV multiplier 1.0 constrained demand. PV multiplier 0.01

In the constrained option, the break-even grid extension distance is shorter, and this is
reasonable because the energy consumed is less, even though the peak effect is almost
the same.
Figure 6-25 Break even grid extension Figure 6-26 Break even grid extension distance.
distance. Constrained demand, PV Constrained demand, PV multiplier 0.01
multiplier 1.0
As can be expected the break even grid

extension distances from the simulations with
an unconstrained demand are very long. This
means that the best way of supplying power to
a trading centre with a load demand as this will
be by grid extension. At least if the community
is within 200 km from the existing grid. This will
be the situation for most trading centres in Uganda. If
the price on solar systems fall there is still a

good chance that the best way for supplying
electricity is through grid extension since the
break even distance is 120 km when the PV
multiplier is down to 0.01.


6.4.4 Variations in diesel prices
As in the previous chapters, simulations with a changing diesel price have been done for
Kiryandongo trading centre as well. The prices are still the same, US$0.8 to US$2.4.
Cost as a function of diesel price
16000000
14000000
12000000
10000000
US$
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
DP1 DP2 DP3

DP1 500 120 66
DP2 500 66 120
DP3 100 500 66 120 100
For the profile with a constrained demand the price have to be three times the present
price for it to be economically viable with photovoltaic. The load will even though be
covered mostly by diesel generators. By looking at the simulation results in HOMER it
can be seen that there will be a little excess electricity in the morning and some capacity
shortage and unmet load in the high peaks in the evening when the diesel price is three
times the present price. The break even distance for the same diesel price is 477 km.

Cost as a function od diesel price Unconstrained
25000000
20000000
15000000
US$
10000000
5000000
0
DP1 DP2 DP3
Figure 6-30 Cost as a function of diesel price when there is an unconstrained demand

DP1 5 160 120 200 75 100
DP2 75 120 160 200 75 50
DP3 350 200 24 160 100 300
As in the previous examples, solar systems are more viable when there is a large load
that has to be covered by diesel generators that demand a lot of fuel. For a diesel price
three times todays price, there will be quite a lot of unmet load and capacity shortage
during the evening peaks. This can be seen also from Table 6-16 where the installed
effect is under 450kW. This can be compared to the peak effect of 1241kWp for
Kiryandongo trading centre. The break even distance for grid extension is 675 km.
6.4.5 Only PV or diesel
These are the results from the simulations with a constrained demand where only PV or
diesel generation supply power.
PV
Mult. (kW) Batteries (kW) Total capital Total NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage
1.00 900 1900 700 $ 8,425,995 $ 10,820,137 0.719 1.00 0.20
0.50 900 1900 700 $ 4,477,995 $ 6,404,914 0.426 1.00 0.20
0.10 900 1900 700 $ 1,319,595 $ 2,872,735 0.191 1.00 0.20
0.01 2200 1000 750 $ 605,855 $ 1,963,513 0.131 1.00 0.20

Gen1 Gen2 Gen3 Total COE Renewable Capacity Diesel Gen1 Gen2 Gen3
(kW) (kW) (kW) capital Total NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage (L) (hrs) (hrs) (hrs)
500 66 120 $ 86,160 $ 4,738,761 0.293 0.00 0.13 440,163 1,748 4,430 3,170
From the results of the simulations done to see the optimal solutions when supplying
power with only PV or diesel generation, it can be seen that diesel generation is the
most economical alternative. Diesel generation has less than half the net present cost
compared to PV with its present cost. This is a realistic result since the investment costs
for diesel is much lower than solar systems and it is a large load to be covered.
The results from the simulations for Kiryandongo with an unconstrained demand and
only PV systems or diesel generation can be seen below.
PV
Mult. (kW) Batteries (kW) Total capital Total NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage
1.00 1500 2400 900 $ 13,850,995 $ 17,539,196 0.718 1.00 0.20
0.50 1500 2400 900 $ 7,262,995 $ 10,171,485 0.417 1.00 0.20
0.10 1500 2400 900 $ 1,992,595 $ 4,277,317 0.175 1.00 0.20
0.01 1800 2000 900 $ 773,155 $ 2,895,017 0.118 1.00 0.20
Gen1 Gen2 Gen3 Total COE Renewable Capacity Diesel Gen1 Gen2 Gen3
(kW) (kW) (kW) capital Total NPC ($/kWh) fraction shortage (L) (hrs) (hrs) (hrs)
200 160 160 $ 99,960 $ 7,406,441 0.296 0.00 0.19 679,925 2,628 8,379 3,218
The same conclusion as above can be drawn for the results from the simulation with an
unconstrained demand. Diesel is by far the cheapest option if only one energy source is
to be used. It though seem like there is less unmet load for the PV system.
Like in the previous chapters for a small and medium trading centre it is considered what
would happen if the load would differ from the assumed one. Here the results are
different and if a constrained demand would occur instead of the unconstrained, then
both the investment cost and the NPC would be lover, more or less half the cost for he
unconstrained solution. ($86000 and $4 700000 compared to $158000 n $7 400 000 for
the solution for the unconstrained demand.) The reason for the high investment cost is
the use of photovoltaic.

The solution or the unconstrained demand has less installed effect, but since the peak
effect it is derived from is almost the same as for the constrained demand, then it is
assumed that it could cover the load for the constrained demand and vice versa with the
difference in operating hours or the diesel generators. The cost of energy is almost the
same for the two options.

General results
After seeing the results from all these simulations some major conclusions can be
drawn. These are:
For a small trading centre, the best way to supply it with power is through diesel
generation. For a medium and large trading centre, the best way if grid extension is no
option, is through diesel generation with a bit of solar power.
If the diesel price rise, then the larger trading centres that has a large load and use a lot
of diesel, should install some solar power. This will give quite high investment costs, but
will lower the net present cost. Some diesel generation will still be installed.
If only solar power or diesel generation is available, then diesel generation is by far the
cheapest alternative with the current prices on photovoltaic. If the prices on PV systems
go down to 50%, then these systems can compete with diesel generation. Still the
investment cost will be much higher than for the diesel option, but the net present cost
will then be about the same and there are also positive effects because of no pollution
and noise.
The risk for an investor is quite large if the load will differ like between the constrained
and unconstrained demand.
To sum up the findings in this result chapter, a table over the results for the general
solutions for the three trading centres will be given. These are all results with a PV
multiplier of 1.0 and represent the cost for supplying a rural trading centre with the given
assumptions in this report.
Table 6-19 Summary of the solutions for rural electrification, PV multiplier 1.0
PV Gen1 Gen2 Gen3 Converter Total COE

(kW) (kW) (kW) (kW) Battery (kW) capital Total NPC ($/kWh)
Biizi
constrained 4 4 $ 8,000 $ 40,015 0.453
Biizi
unconstrained 7 $ 7,000 $ 94,075 0.414
Mutunda
constrained 66 66 $ 33,000 $ 917,137 0.372
Mutunda
unconstrained 40 40 1 0.6 $ 27,835 $ 1,856,216 0.323
Kiryandongo
constrained 500 120 66 $ 86,160 $ 4,738,761 0.293
Kiryandongo
unconstrained 5 160 120 200 75 100 $ 158,135 $ 7,398,032 0.298

7 Grid extension 65
7 Grid extension
In this section there will be a general discussion about grid
extension. The applicability of grid extension is discussed
and protection systems for the network parts are drafted.
Some questions for further studies if a grid extension is
relevant are stated finally.
7.1 Applicability
Picture 7-1 Warning sign at a
Grid extension is probably the most viable alternative in the grid pole in Kampala
long term in a larger electrification program for Uganda. Stand alone systems may be
the optimal technology option for small and remote villages, but as the trading centres
become larger it can be seen that the break-even grid extension distance is quite long,
specially if the load is relatively high and has a high load factor. It is said in Uganda’s
Strategy for Accelerating Grid-based Renewable Power Generation for a Clean
Environment that “The major challenge for Uganda is to ensure that the grid network is
strengthened to have the necessary capacity to handle the additional power.” [19]
Additional power will probably come from construction of new hydro power sites.
Considering that Uganda in several parts of the country have a problem with sustaining
voltage levels and high transmission losses, there is lot of work to be done on the
rehabilitation of the grid. Some of this work has been initiated by UETCL with the help of
SWECO that have done a study on the transmission and sub-transmission network in
Uganda. According to this study, the potential load growth in rural areas is high and is
determined by the changes in electrification policy more than changes in consumer
behaviour. [1] As mentioned in chapter 4.3.3, the influx from people moving from rural
areas to urban areas will change the need for sub transmission lines and grid extension
to certain communities may be unnecessary.
The national grid in Uganda is already now under high stress because of little generation
capacity and transmission lines that have been without proper maintenance. Masindi
district is far from the main power generation sites that are situate not far from Kampala
and therefore have problems with keeping the bus bar voltage at an acceptable level.
The long and radial lines are able to carry very little load before they cause severe

7 Grid extension 66
voltage problems. For this reason autotransformers of 5 MVA are installed at Hoima and
Busunjo to boost up the voltage [31] but these have only short-term positive effects.
Since UEDCL is to be contracted out to the private sector, no formal expansion plans
are available because these will be the responsibility of the new owners.
Many rural areas face high transmission and distribution costs for several reasons: the
capacity of power lines is inefficiently used because of low population, densities and
demands are low, villages may have very peaky demand profiles and line losses tend to
be high. [28] The existing 33kV and 11kV subtransmission network is basically a
distribution network with long radial feedings and characterized with low, rural loads.
There are several reasons to expand the transmission system as mentioned in chapter
4.3.3. Some of these were rural electrification, to increase security and to reduce losses
and improve operational economy. The existing network may need to be upgraded and
reinforced with new lines, substations and voltage equipment due to the fact that the
lines are going to be overloaded or have an unfeasible capacity because of an increased
transfer demand. Some other reasons is that voltage level is too low for the transfer
demand or the reactive balance in not optimal which in turn increase losses in the
system. [1]
As mentioned a reason for the transmission losses in the Ugandan grid is due theft of
electricity directly from the grid. About 30% of the losses in the Ugandan grid are caused
by non-technical losses like theft. There is also a problem with theft and vandalism of
conductors and poles in some areas. It is therefore important with an anti-theft design
when planning for new lines. This can be to use a higher voltage level than most
electrical appliances work on so that it will be impossible to use the electricity without
transformers. [29] Other ways to protect from theft are:[1]
♦ To use anti-vandalism bolts in the lattice steel structures combined with a friction bond.
These bolts cannot be removed after being put into place and the tower cost is affected
with less than 1%.
♦ To use tubular steel towers that cannot be disassembled. These towers use little land
and are good for populated areas, but due to their slim design they cost up to 30-50%
more than standard lattice steel structures
♦ To use wooden poles with metal crossbars. They are not attractive for thefts and they
also have the lowest investment cost. These poles require high maintenance and can

7 Grid extension 67
become rotten or eaten by termites, but this can be minimised by chemical treatment.
They are not recommended for transmission system level.
♦ To use concrete poles. These poles have a high cost, 50% more than lattice steel towers,
and must be manufactured in one piece, but they are not attractive for theft and are slim
and use little land.
♦ To use welded lattice steel structures that cannot be disassembled and hence not so
easily stolen. They are expensive because they have to be welded at the manufacturer
making transport difficult. They are not common and favoured by utilities.
♦ To avoid ACSR conductors where the pure aluminium is attractive. It is possible to use
AAAC conductors instead which cannot be used in the process for pure aluminium.
These conductors are more costly and for a transmission line the use of these will
increase the total line cost by 3%.
The most realistic anti-vandalism solutions in Masindi is to use anti-vandalism bolts in
steel lattice towers or to use wooden poles. Also the use of AAAC conductors is
recommended. [1]
7.2 Protection schemes
To have a more reliable system, a meshed system should be considered. This will
demand protection schemes so that only the part of the grid with the fault will be out, and
the meshed system will ensure electricity to such a large portion of the grid as possible.
When extending the grid, several protection schemes are needed for the various
network elements. The selection of protection schemes has to be made with the
consideration of availability of protection systems in Uganda and it should also be cost
effective. For the 132kV and 220kV system two independent protection systems based
on different measuring principles should be used.
The 132kV lines are presently equipped with the following protection [1]:
♦ A main protection that is a distance protection with three forwarding zones, reverse zone
and autoreclosing relay operation on three-phase autoreclosing scheme. This scheme
has a teleprotection scheme for operation of the remote feeder breaker in case of zone
one fault.
♦ A back-up protection that consist of static three-phase over current protection and a
directional earth fault protection scheme. 1
♦ Supplementary protection equipment like a fault locator for indication of the distance to a
fault. This is part of the overhead line protection scheme.

7 Grid extension 68
These protection schemes are acceptable and comply with safety requirements normal
for the voltage level. As a modernisation multi functional microprocessor controlled line
protection relays or additional line protection systems could be introduced. An increased
telecommunication capacity could allow upgrading of existing protection systems or
implementation of additional protection schemes that could increase protection reliability
and selectivity and to decrease tripping time.
For the 33kV lines, the protection scheme could be chosen depending on the importance
of the line. If the line is working as a transmission and supply line for a larger area with
substations, a protection system as one for a 132kV could be considered. If the line is
less important, a downgrading of the protection system to only a distance or over-current
protection may be an option. It is recommended to supplement the protection scheme
with an auto-reclosing function to avoid total shut down in case of temporary faults.
There is also a need for protection of the transformers for transmission and sub-
transmission level. The existing transformers are equipped with the following main
protection functions and this is considered sufficient [1].
♦ Current differential relay
♦ Restricted earth fault relay for star windings
♦ Three phase over current and earth fault protection
♦ Bucholz relay
♦ Suddenoil pressure relay
♦ Winding temperature
♦ Oil temperature
The reliability in the Ugandan grid is low compared to European figures, but it could be
improved by relatively simple measures like bush cuttings, keeping the way of lines clear
of trees that may fall over the lines and replacement of wooden poles.
According to the district manager for UEDCL in Masindi, the most common fault that
makes lines fall out is rain, thunder, wind etc. There are most external faults that make
Masindi district loose power. When the new line from Apac to Masindi will be conducted,
there will be some more security concerning power reliability and hopefully less loss of
mains.
There are several issues that need to be addressed when extending the transmission
and sub-transmission grid. Some of these may be:

7 Grid extension 69
• How does new load and new lines affect the existing grid?
• How do added generating units affect the existing grid?
• Will there be a need for more power or is rehabilitation of the grid enough with
booster transformers etc when new loads in Masindi is added?
These were questions that were thought to be answered by doing a load flow analysis
with the program SIMPOW by ABB. The data for the grid would be put in to a single line
model and then a load flow analysis could be run. By adding new branches it is possible
to se how new loads affect the grid and from that it would also possible to se in what
order the grid should be expanded.
Instead, this could be recommended to do as a further study if a rural electrification by
grid extension is to proceed.

8 Discussion 70
8 Discussion
Rural electrification is included in the energy policy of Uganda and it is stated that they
wish to enhance the living conditions of the rural population and to reduce the
inequalities in national access to electricity and social welfare. Rural electrification by
means of renewable energy and the use of the natural resources in Uganda is also
promoted. This means principally the use of water, solar and biomass. Rural
electrification programmes are all over the world and it is a big challenge for the
countries concerned to meet the future energy demands in a sustainable way.
A change in technology is linked to economical change which in turn is linked to social

change. [21] Given that most people may at first be reluctant to social change, it is not
hard to understand that a change in technology options is hard to drive through. This can
be seen in for example the use of charcoal stoves that are used even though some
people have access to both electrical stoves and gas stoves. In a larger scale, people
may be worried that introducing new forms of energy will affect places of work. For
example it can be mentioned that if the technology of making coal from bagasse would
be subsidised and promoted, then several people that are occupied with the work of
making charcoal would be out of work. Of course it would be more environmentally
sound to use coal from bagasse, but as mentioned people are reluctant to change,
especially when jobs are in danger.[30]
There are several reasons why rural electrification programs have a hard time becoming
viable. Some of these are [21]:
• Several projects compete for the same capital
• The projects are evaluated according to net present cost
• The cost of capital depend on associated time and risk
All together this means that projects that are known and considered safe, may get
capital. In this context, this would mean that diesel generation and grid extension would
be favoured compared to photovoltaic. Connected with a high interest rate, solar
systems that have a high initial cost get a non-favourable position as well. This means
that the Government, as an incentive to promote sustainable energy generation, could, if

8 Discussion 71
possible, put a lower interest rate on renewable energy projects as compared to diesel
system projects.
Uganda is in a special position as power generation is concerned because almost all of

the power produced in Uganda is from hydro power which is considered as a renewable
energy source. One problem is though that several of the new hydro sites that are under
consideration are situated in national parks. The energy that will be produced there will
be renewable, but will it be considered sustainable? Several environmentalist groups
have protested against this project. There is also a problem of getting financing from the
World Bank and foreign governments for the building of the hydro station at Bujagali falls
for example. The reason for this is the political risk connected to the governmental
stability in Uganda. Of course some of the planned hydro power sites are outside
national parks and not as large as the Bujagali falls project.
Considering all this, solar systems is put into a more favourable position compared to
grid extension where the power is produced from hydro power. However, more electricity
could be produced from other energy sources like biomass or geothermal energy,
making grid based electricity both renewable AND sustainable.
A problem one has to face when investing in new energy systems is concerning who
should be responsible for operation and maintenance, who will pay for the system and
will the customers come? This problem is relevant for all the technologies. For grid
extension, it is relatively easy to say that the grid utility will pay for the cost of extension,
and the customers will pay an interconnection fee and the price of energy used. But
should the interconnection fee be subsidised to promote rural electrification? And when it
comes to the electrical installations in the houses, who should pay for that? Should it be
included in the interconnection fee or separate? To ensure as many customers as
possible to connect to a new grid, all cost should probably be included as one. This
usually makes fees look less, and it becomes a bit like a plug-and-play package.
Solar systems are another question. If small solar home systems are considered, then
each customer could be responsible for their own system. Because of the high
investment cost, an official payment plan from an investing bank could be an option. This
could be a solution if a rural electrification program by solar power is promoted by the
government .A solution with a large PV system with a mini grid or where people can
come and charge their batteries, will still give a cost for the customer since the electric

8 Discussion 72
installations in the house has to be done, and a battery has to be bought, but the large
investment cost for the solar panels will be in the hands of a large investor.
Power from diesel generation should probably be phased out since it is a non-
sustainable solution. On the other hand it is an available technology in Uganda and has
also the lowest investment costs. If the diesel prices do not rise much in the near future,
it can be seen from the simulations that diesel is the most viable alternative. It could
function as a start for raising the living conditions for rural people and be phased out with
sustainable technologies further ahead.
A problem is for an investor to assess how much he is willing to pay to avoid a power
shortage. Since the area to be powered is mainly a residential area, with few or no
industries, then this sum is probably quite small. If there had been large industries
dependent on electricity for their production, they might have been willing to pay more
for power security and then there can be larger investments. Now, the customers will be
regular households that still have not got the same standard and power requirements as
the western world. There is for example no cost for undelivered energy in Uganda.
Some discussion could be made of the applicability of HOMER as a simulation tool and
the input parameters that have been used. There is always an uncertainty of prices for
the technology options and the resources. What is also introducing a large insecurity of
the results in this study are the load profiles that the simulations are based upon. These
have been done partly by collected data from Uganda, but also by own experience from
daily life in Scandinavia and Uganda. As a justification, it can be said that the same
grounds are used for all the load profiles so at least the simulations will be based on the
same assumptions. The fact that HOMER can not have a development of prices in its
simulations, have made the simulations time consuming and not always compatible with
real life situations.

9 Conclusion 73
9 Conclusion
When looking at the energy situation in the world today, and the third world in particular,
it can easily bee seen that supplying people with reliable, clean and inexpensive energy
is a major challenge. Even so, giving people in poor areas access to energy is a big step
closer towards giving them a better future. Access to energy will lead to better health
care, better education possibilities and maybe even lead to small scale industries that
will give an economic development. Together, these things will lead to a better quality of
life for the people concerned.
It can also be seen from contracts being created between both companies and
governments that rural electrification is an important question in today’s world. As an
example can be mentioned a contract between the Tanzanian energy company
Tanseco, and the consultant company SWECO that are going to investigate and try to
find solutions for rural electrification in Tanzania. [27] SWECO has also as a task to
develop the transmission network in Uganda. [1] Other organizations that deal with this
type of questions are the World Bank, NORAD and Danida, to mention some.
Power from photovoltaic generation is most applicable in smaller communities that are
situated far from the main grid and have a dispersed load. Another application area for
photovoltaic systems is when there are a number of small but important loads that have
to be covered, for example vaccine refrigeration at a local health station, lighting at a
school or security lights along the main street in a trading centre. A negative side with
PV systems is the high investment cost for a relatively low effect. Many who install solar
systems become disappointed because they do not know the limitations of the system
and feel that the usage area of the electricity is smaller than wanted. For example does
a kettle for heating water usually use more effect (about 1000 W) than a solar home
system can produce. Other, larger, solar systems with mini-grids may be an option for
rural electrification and could be subject to further studies.
Diesel generation is a widely available technology that is known in most areas. Diesel
generators are used as back up system in many trading centres that are already
connected to the grid. They are available in many different sizes and it is relatively easy

9 Conclusion 74
to find a generator that can fit the actual load. For a trading centre far away from the
grid, there can be difficulties with the transport of diesel, making diesel generation less
preferable in such a situation. If transport problems are an issue for a trading centre,
then solar systems may be preferable. Diesel generation also have a negative
environmental impact, with pollution and noise. Frequent maintenance is required for a
diesel generator. It should though be easier to find a technician that can repair and do
the maintenance of a diesel generator compared to a solar system because of the
frequent use of generators.
Grid extension is most applicable when there is a large load to be covered or if the
trading centre is very close to the main grid. As it could be seen by the simulations, the
break even grid extension distance was quite long for both the medium and large trading
centre. (From 9 km and up.) Grid extension may have environmental effects like
deforestation and use of agricultural landscape but in Masindi this should not be a large
problem. As mentioned before the Ugandan grid is already under stress because of too
low generation capacity and transmission overloads. A new line is though being built
from Apac in the east to Masindi, giving Masindi a higher level of security in case of
congestions or loss of mains on the way up to Masindi, since it will now be fed with
power from two different directions. The rural loads that might be added to the main grid
through a grid extension are quite small. They will in any case not be built earlier than
new generation capacity is planned by the government to be built.
As a further study, rural electrification of a certain trading centre could be an option.

Then each household load etc. could be modelled and put in to another simulation tool
also developed by NREL. This tool is called VIPOR and is an optimization tool for village
power electrification system. This program, given a map over the village and data about
the loads, can design what loads should be supplied by for example SHS and what
loads should be connected to a grid. It is preferably used together with HOMER.
Another option is to further investigate the possibilities of using solar systems in a larger
scale for rural electrification. Not only as solar home systems, but also as power
generation for mini grids. Maybe solar thermal generation could be an alternative.

9 Conclusion 75
There are a lot of questions about financing rural electrification, but these have been
partly out of this scope in this thesis. Means of financing and investment plans and
investment risks could be the aim of further research.
It can be concluded that rural electrification is an important task to enhance the living
standard for millions of people and that there is a lot of further research to be done to
find optimal solutions for rural electrification in both Masindi district, Uganda and in
general in the third world. In this study simulations to give an idea of the costs have been
done, but to be really applicable, closer studies of the area to be electrified has to be
done, and more requirements have to be given for the proceeding of an electrification of
a rural area.

10 Literature references 76
10 Literature references
[1] “Consultancy services for UEB. Transmission and subtransmission study”, NDF 103-3
Power III, SWECO, Dec 2003
[2] Arinda R., Okou R., “Technology options for powering Biizi trading centre – Masindi district”,
Kampala, Uganda, March 2004
[3] Bahati Godfrey, “Geothermal energy in Uganda, country update”, Entebbe, Uganda,
International Geothermal Conference, Reykjavik, Sept 2003
[4] Redwood-Sawyerr Jonas A S, “Widening access in the context of Power sector reform – an
overview of the institutional challenges in Africa”, UNEP-IEA/AIE Meeting 21-22 May 2002,
Paris, France
[5] Solar radiation data for Masindi district, Ministry of Water, Lands and Environment,
Department of Meteorology, Kampala, March 2004
[6] Electricité de France, “Uganda load forecast review (Update 2001)”, January 2001
[7] “HOMER, Getting started guide, Version 2.0”, May 2003, NREL, USA
[8] Help in HOMER
[9] Oparaku O. U., “Rural area power supply in Nigeria: A cost comparison of the photovoltaic,
diesel/gasoline generator and grid utility options”, Renewable Energy 28 (2003) 2089-2098,
Elsevier Science Ltd
[10] Christofides Constantinos, “Autonomous photovoltaic power system or connection with

electrical grid? A preliminary feasibility study for small and isolated communities”, 1989,
Solar Cells 26 (1989) 165-175, Elsevier Sequoia
[11] Martzoukos S. H., Teplitz-Sembitzky W., “Optimal timing of transmission line investments in
the face of uncertain demand, an option valuation approach”, 1992, Butterworth-Heinmann
Ltd
[12] Flowers Larry, “Renewables for sustainable village power”, Presentad at International
Conference of Village Elctrification through Renewable Energy, New Dehli India, NREL,
March 1997
[13] “Energy and Poverty”, IEA: world energy outlook 2002
[14] Kamese Geoffrey, “Renewable energy technologies in Uganda: The potential for
Geothermal Energy Development”, March 2004
[15] Ijumba N. M., “Application of distributed generation in optimised design and operation of
rural power supply networks”
[16] Daley James M., Siciliano Robert L., “Application of emergency and standby generation for
distributed generation: Part 1 – Concepts and hypotheses”, IEEE Transactions in industry
applications, vol. 39 No. 4, July/August 2003

10 Literature references 77
[17] The Government of Uganda, “New strategy plan & implementation plan”, June 1999,
Uganda
[18] MEMD, “Rural Electrification Strategy and Plan Covering the Period 2001 to 2010”, The
Government of Uganda, February 2001
[19] Bbumba S. N. M., “Uganda’s strategy for accelerating grid-based renewable power
generation for a cleaner environment”, Uganda
[20] “Energy after Rio: Prospects and Challenges”, Chapter 2 – Energy and Major Global Issues,
UNDP, www.undo.org/seed/energy
[21] Gether Kaare, “Transition to Large Scale Use of Hydrogen and Sustainable Energy
Services, Choices of technology and infrastructure under path dependence, feedback and
nonlinearity”, Doctoral thesis at NTNU 2004:71
[22] Langåsen, Britt-Mari, “Distributed generation in developing countries”, Fall 2003, NTNU
[23] Bahati Godfrey, “Geothermal energy in Uganda, country update”, presented at the
International Geothermal Conference, Reykjavik, September 2003, Entebbe Uganda.
[24] HOMER webpage, www.nrel.gov/homer
[25] Mean household size, OBOS, http://www.ubos.org/appendix3prov.pdf
[26] Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) webpage, http://www.era.or.ug/prices.asp
[27] SWECO webpage, http://www.sweco.se/templates/Page____11616.asp
[28] Goldemberg José, “Rural energy in developing countries”, chapter 10, WEA: Energy and the
challenge of sustainability
[29] Andrew Mubonga, District Manager, Masindi district, UEDCL, personal contact
[30] Terry Jobling, Engineering Manader, Kinyara Sugar Works Ltd, personal contact
[31] Elisabeth Kabagante, Planning Engineer, UEDCL, personal contact
[32] Nyanzi Joseph Kubo, Principal Planning Engineer, UEDCL, Uganda, personal contact
[33] Fred Tugume, A.G. Coordinator for Geothermal Activities, Entebbe, Uganda, personal
contact

11 Appendix 78
11 Appendix
11.1 Interviews
This chapter will include typed interviews and meetings with persons met in Uganda.
Addresses and other contact information where accurate in March 2004, but cannot be
guaranteed in the future.
Monday 16 feb: Meeting with Dr. Okure and Dr. da Silva.

Dr. Izael Pereira da Silva
Lecturer
Dept. of Electrical Engineering
Makerere University
Tel: +256-41-250415
Mob: +256-77-5057902
bugala@afsat.com
This was the first meeting at the university and we met Dr Okure and Dr Da Silva. They
had expected someone studying solar power (Torill) and had made a program for that
purpose during the day. It turned out that the communication between Makerere and
NTNU had been somewhat insufficient and that they had no idea who where coming and
what we where going to do research on and they had other expectations of our projects
than we had. This made things a bit insecure and a not so promising start.
Monday 16 february: Meeting with

Philippe Simonis
Energy Advisor
Amber Hose, Room A205
c/o GTZ Office Kampala
P.O Box 10346
Tel/Fax: +256-41-234165
Mob: +256-75-791268
simonis@africaonline.co.ug
Mr Simonis had expected someone studying solar energy. He was a bit disappointed
when it turned out that no one studying that came to Makerere. He was not interested in
my original project because he didn’t think it was feasible. Mr Simonis instead suggested
that I should work with two of Dr. Da Silva’s students. They where going to look at a cost
analysis for electrifying a trading centre in the Masindi district. I was a bit disappointed

11 Appendix 79
that they wanted to change my project and said that I had to talk to my advisor first. They
had an understanding for this, but emphasised that they probably wouldn’t be able to
help me with my original project, but if I wanted to go through with it, they would try to
help me get in contact with the right people.
Tuesday 17 february: Meeting with Rachel Arinda and Richard Okou.
Rachel Arinda
Mob: +256-71-
Richard Okou
Mob: +256-71-
This was the first meeting with Rachel and Richard. They are two final year bachelor
students at Institute for Electric Engineering at Makerere University. They where going to
do a project for GTZ on the optimal way of electrifying a trading centre in Masindi. I
received some papers about the simulation program HOMER that they where going to
use and they told me what they knew about the project. They were going to travel up to
Masindi already the following weekend, and we decided to meet again the next day to go
to Mr Simonis as GTZ and to travel together up to Masindi on Saturday. I thought it was
a bit strange to go during a weekend, but being new in the country I thought they knew
best.
Thursday 19 february: Meeting 2 with :

Philippe Simonis
Energy Advisor
Amber Hose, Room A205
c/o GTZ Office Kampala
P.O Box 10346
Tel/Fax: +256-41-234165
Mob: +256-75-791268
simonies@africaonline.co.ug
Meeting with Rachel and Richard at Mr. Simonis office about the project. During this
meeting I got some more information about the project in Masindi, and we also talked a
bit on how my project could be incorporated with this. We talked about that I maybe
could look at a larger part of Masindi and several trading centres. I.e doing the same as
Rachel and Richard on a larger scale. We decided that Mr Simonis should write an email
to Edgar Hertwich and Olav Fosso and tell them about the project.

11 Appendix 80
Friday 20 february: Meeting 3 with Mr. Simonis

Talked about my project and decided that I would look at the whole Masindi district, but
otherwise do the same as the two students. I was also going to do a load flow analysis
over the district.
Friday 20 february: Meeting at UEDCL

Franklin Kizito Oidu
Manager Technical Services
Amber House
Plot 29/23 Kampala Road
P.O.Box 7059
Kampala
Tel: +256-31-360704
Fax: +256-41-349565
Mob: +256-41-259716
oidukizito@ueb.co.ug
oidukizito@yahoo.co.uk
Met Mr. Oidu with R&R and spoke about the information we wanted for our project. He
seemed very helpful and became even more interested when he learnt that I studied at
NTNU where he had been for a year in 1986.
Nyanzi Joseph Kubo

Principal Planning Engineer
Amber House
P.O. Box 7059
Kampala
Tel: +256-31-360600
Fax: +256-41-349565
Mob: +256-77-404878
Mr. Kubo was the one helping us to get the information about the grid and also about
costs for grid extension. While in the office a man came down the roof, twice. He was up
there fixing wires. We got single line diagrams over the Masindi district and over the total
Uganda grid. He promised he would help me later with the load flow analysis. We talked
about IPPs but he didn’t know about any other in the area than the Kinyara sugar
factory. They had plans about expanding. As of now the produce 15 MW which they use
for their own consumption. He didn’t know about any plans for hydro power and the area
wasn’t suited for geothermal activities.

11 Appendix 81
Monday 23 february: Meeting with the LC5 in Masindi.

The LC5 is the chairman for the district of Masindi. We went to the LC5 to get
information about the population in Biizi and also about the economic activities. He
seemed “maatligt” interested in what we where doing and probably thought that we
should have been more prepared. He sent us to another person in the same building, Mr
Rashid Yawiya. He had the information we wanted about the trading centres but the
problem was that he didn’t know which where electrified and not. To get that information
we had to go to the planning office and then get back in touch.
The planning office promised to help finding important trading centres. The lay helping
us didn’t have time to do the work when we where there, but promised to find the
information, give it to the population office and then fax the information to GTZ. (After 3
weeks the info has still not come. Will go up there again.)
Week 9
Searched for information about prices for PV and generators.
Went to Mantrac to find prices about generators (why not the internet?) and to UltraTec
to get prices for PV. At Mantrac we spoke to a lady that where going to help us and find
the data we wanted about different generators. She couldn’t do it momentarily but she
said she would have it done within a couple of days. The person at Ultratec didn’t want
to give us the pricelist because he was afraid that we would publish his figures that are
wholesale. I asked if it is ok to get the info if the report has a confidential part but he
didn’t seem to understand or didn’t want to give out the price anyway. We didn’t get any
copies but had to write down the figures he said about different costs and life spans of
products.
Wednesday 10 march:
Elisabeth Kabagante
Planning Engineer
UEDCL
Amber House, Room B209
Tel: +256-31-360600
ekamanyire@hotmail.com
Ms. Kabagante works as a planner at UEDCL and will help me get information about the
load data for the district of interest. Decided that I would write an e-mail about the

11 Appendix 82
information I wanted and that we would make an appointment after that. Seemed
interested in what I am doing. She uses the programs ETAP and EPSS for load flow
analysis. She also gave us a copy of a part of an report which gave us figures about
operating hours that UEDCL use when planning and doing load profiles.
Wednesday 10 March: Meeting with

Luzze Fred
Senior Technician
Solar Energy for Africa Ltd.
Plot 40, Bombo Road
P.O. box 4155 Kampala
Tel: +256-41-250125
Tel/Fax: +256-41-250131
Mob: +256-77-564405
solarsgu@africaonline.co.ug
During this meeting we got access to old orders that had been made by SPA. This gave
us an idea about the cost for solar and also what wattage one should put on different
devices. The man we talked to did not know how to design a system by him self, but he
used software that seemed excel based. We didn’t get any copies here either of
systems, but had to write down the data that were presented to us.
Friday 12 March: Meeting with

Dr. Izael Pereira da Silva
Lecturer
Dept. of Electrical Engineering
Makerere University
Tel: +256-41-250415
Mob: +256-77-5057902
bugala@afsat.com
Talked about the collaboration between Makerere University and NTNU, what have been
good and what needs to be improved. We said that communication prior to our arrival
was a key ingredient that where missing a bit this time. A better communication would be
in interest of both MUK and NTNU, the student and the professors if the collaboration is
to continue.
Tuesday 16 March: Meeting with

Elisabeth Kabagante
Planning Engineer

11 Appendix 83
UEDCL
Amber House, Room B209
Tel: +256-31-360600
ekamanyire@hotmail.com
This meeting was a result of an e-mail I had sent with questions to Elisabeth the 11 of
March. The questions where about data for a load flow analysis. First I got some
information at her office in Amber House and then we went to Lugugo and the UEDCL
office there. In Lugogo she showed me the load flow analysis program ETAP which she
used for analyses.
Tuesday 16 March: Meeting with

Nyanzi Joseph Kubo
Principal Planning Engineer
Amber House
P.O. Box 7059
Kampala
Tel: +256-31-360600
Fax: +256-41-349565
Mob: +256-77-404878
This was a “spontaneous” meeting and we talked a bit about different problems with grid
extension in rural areas.
Some of the problems when constructing new lines are:
-Theft of expensive parts (transformers are stolen and remelted. This means that the
cheaper aluminium transformers can’t be used, but instead they have to use the triple
SC (?) transformer)
-Vandalism
There are no costs for the distribution company when the power is not delivers, as in a
load shedding situation or a loss of means. Sometimes they pay if damage on devices or
loss of production can be proven. The larger industries wish for compensation for loss of
power and because of that production losses.
Different areas in Kampala have different load shedding priority, with the Mulago
Hospital coming first. This is not a priority you can pay for, but a natural selection.

11 Appendix 84
Wednesday 17 March: Meeting with:

Terry Jobling
Engineering manager
P.O Box 179
Masindi
Tel.: +256 036 600 410
joblingT@kinyara.co.ug
Mr Jorling works at Kinyara Sugar Works Ltd and is the engineer there. Kinyara Sugar
Works is almost self sufficient with electricity and it is produced from both the burning of
bagasse which is a residue from the sugar production and from diesel generation.
They are at this moment building a new furnace for bagasse, since they are expanding
their production of sugar, but they will not utilise more of the bagasse for electricity
generation. The furnace that is being built can though be rebuilt with a generator to
recover steam for electricity generation.
According to studies done by Kinyara Sugar Works, it is not economically viable for them
to sell excess energy to the utility. There is a sub station just outside the factory, so
connecting to the grid is not a problem, but Mr Jorling said that if they where to sell
electricity to the grid, they would have to make contracts with certain amounts of power
to sell. If they for some reason should produce less energy and have contracts on
energy to sell, they would have to produce it by diesel generation. This would be to
expensive. If it where to be economically sound to sell excess electricity to the grid, the
grid price would have to be about twice the amount it is today.
Monday 22 March: Meeting with Andrew Mubonga, DM for UEDCL, Masindi

Andrew Mubonga
District Manager, Masindi district, UEDCL
Mob: +256-77-490596
This meeting was to find out some things about the reliability of the lines supporting
Masindi. Got some statistics from September to February, with some months missing.
During the rainy season there are often more outages because of falling trees, rain,
thunder etc.
Also got some general costs for grid extension. If there is an extension with no pole or
one pole, e.g. very close to the existing grid, then the customer can contact the district

11 Appendix 85
office and the will handle the extension. If there is a larger extension, then the main
office have to do a research of the investment.
The cost for a no-pole extension: 150 000 Ush

The cost for a one-pole extension: 350 000 Ush
These prices include a 50 000 Ush security deposit which the customer will get back if
there is a problem (?)
23 March: Meeting with

Herman Ssenyondwa
Principal planning engineer
UETCL
P.O. Box 6088
Kampala
herman.ssenyondwa@uetcl.com
I met with Mr Ssenyondwa and told hi about my project which where going to include a
load flow analysis over Masindi district, part from doing a cost analysis of electrifying a
trading centre. Got access to a report made by the Swedish company SWECO about the
transmission and subtransmission system in Uganda. But to get permission to have a
copy of this report I had to get a clearance from the head at UETCL. He was away on
business and I got in touch with … instead. The day after a got a clearance and could
copy parts of the report. Unfortunately it wasn’t in soft copy.
Wednesday 24 March: Meeting with Fred Tugume

Fred Tugume
A.G Coordinator for geothermal activities
Geological surveys & Minerals Department
Entebbe, Uganda
seismo@afsat.com
There are three different areas in Uganda around Kibiro that are being explored for
geothermal activities. They are still doing feasibility studies on these sights but there is
problems getting funding for the research. That is why there have been little
development of the studies since 1994. Mr Tugume said that the project was prioritised
by the World Bank that where funding the studies. The steam from he geothermal

11 Appendix 86
activities can be used for drying fish or tobacco in the area and that it is compatible with
small hydro power generation. He didn’t know how much power that where expected to
be used from the geothermal spots.

11 Appendix 87
11.2 HOMER input variables

11 Appendix 110
11.3 Attached CD with HOMER files and data

Rural Electrification in Uganda

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Rural Electrification in Uganda

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Master thesis

Rural electrification in Uganda

Stud. techn. Britt-Mari Langåsen

Faculty of Information Technology,

Department of Energy and Process Engineering

The Norwegian University of Science and Technology

POSTADRESSE TELEFONER TELEFAX

Rapportens tittel Dato

Rural electrification in Uganda: Powering the Masindi District 23.06.04

Elektrifisering av landsbyer i Uganda: Masindi District 110p incl. 22 p attachemnts

Oppdragsgiver Oppdragsgivers ref.

Stikkord på norsk Indexing Terms English

Gruppe 1 Elektrifisering av landsbygd Rural electrification

Gruppe 2 U-land Developing countries

Norges teknisk- Institutt for energi- og

Elektrifisering av landsbyer i Uganda: Masindi District

The analysis should include following elements:

Senest 14 dager etter utlevering av oppgaven skal kandidaten levere/sende instituttet en

Institutt for energi og prosessteknikk, xx.xx.2004

Trondheim, June 23, 2004

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

De huvudsakliga slutledningarna som kan dras från dessa simuleringar är:

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Exchange rate: US$1 = 2000 Ush

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

1.1 Structure of the report

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Picture 2-1 Map over Masindi district

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

3.1 Preparations and progression of the work

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

3.2 Field studies

Another difference is the technical resources available. Internet connection is mainly

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Results achieved from the field studies

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Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Figure 3-1 User interface of HOMER

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

3.3.1 Critique of HOMER

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

3.4 Sensitivity analysis

Questions that can be answered by doing a sensitivity analysis in HOMER:

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

4 Power generation and technology options

4.1 Power generation

Presently the only major power generation is situated

4.1.2 Power producers in Masindi district

There are no major power producers within Masindi district

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

4.1.3 Future power generation

Table 4-1 Suggested places construction of new hydro power generation

Place Year of construction

Britt-Mari Langåsen Spring 2004

4.2 Alternative energy sources

Pink 0.2rural high+0.4rural medium+0.4*rural low