Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: Indias Role in South China Sea Maritime Disputes Carlyle A. Thayer September 20, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] 1. HillaryClintonrecentlycalledonIndiatotakeonagreaterroleinhelpingthe United States uphold freedom of navigation, while simultaneously urging NewDelhitoextenditsinfluencedeeperintotheAsiaPacific.Duringavisit of Indian foreign minister S.M Krishna last week, Vietnamese president Truong Tan Sang also threw strong support behind Indias strengthened presenceintheSouthChinaSea.Whatisthesignificanceofsuchmoves? ANSWER: India aspires to a global role. It has emerged as a potential strategic partner of the United States. Both countries share convergent security interests: theymustdealconstructivelywitharisingChinabutprotecttheirmaritimeinterests at the same time. The significance of recent diplomatic moves is that the United States is encouraging India to join with the U.S., Japan and other allies to uphold freedomofnavigationandoverflightintheSouthChinaSeaasameanstoreinforce thestatusquoandputChinaonnoticethatitsambitclaimtotheSouthChinaSea mustbemodified.TheseactionswillpreventChinafromsinglingoutVietnamorthe PhilippinesandinternationalizetheissueofmaritimeaccesstotheSouthChinaSea. 2. India will slowly but surely become a pivotal balancing power in the South ChinaSea.Whatisyourassessmentofthis?HowcanVietnamcashinonthis toleverageitsadvantageintheSouthChinaSeadispute? ANSWER: India has growing commercial and trade interests in the AsiaPacific. EconomistspredictthatinseveraldecadesIndiawillbecomethelargesteconomyin theworld.Indiaisalsodependentonimportsofoilandgastomeetenergyneeds. Indiathereforewillhaveagreaterstrategicinterestinmaintainingsafeandsecure sea lines of communication, especially through the South China Sea. Vietnam has alreadytakenthefirststepbyofferingcommercialrepairfacilitiesatCamRanhBay to all countries. This action is not directly aimed at China but it does demonstrate that other major powers have a national interest in the South China Sea. Vietnam canalsodevelopclosermilitarytieswithIndiabecauseofthecompatabilityoftheir Russianmademilitaryequipment.Indiaalsohasusefulmilitarytechnologyitcould sharewithVietnam.AstrengthenedIndiaVietnamrelationshipwillmakeChinatake noticeoftheircommoninterests.

2 3. What has most concerned India when it comes to the South China Sea dispute? Does Vietnam and India have any other shared concerns over Chinasgrowingaggressiveness? ANSWER:IndiaismainlyconcernedwithresolvingitslandborderdisputewithChina, andwiththeChinaPakistanirelationship.India,since1991,haspursuedaLookEast policytoadvanceitseconomicandsecurityinterests.IndiaisamemberoftheARF and East Asia Summit. Indian concerns are focused on emergence of China as a potential dominant power in the South China Sea with the ability to control its strategic sea lanes. Some Indian defence analysts looks on their relationship with VietnamasacountertotheChinaPakistanirelationship.Inthisview,Chinawillhave toactwithmorecircumspectionwithPakistanorfacetheprospectsofacloserIndia Vietnamrelationship.BothIndiaandVietnamneedtocooperateandstrugglewith Chinatopromotetheirinterests.