Contents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................................................... 2 PRODUCTION & SUPPLY SITUATION ............................................................................................... 3 DEMAND & CONSUMPTION PATTERN............................................................................................ 4 Peak Oil Mega-trend ....................................................................................................................... 6 IMPORTERS & EXPORTERS .............................................................................................................. 7 EFFECT OF FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS ON CRUDE OIL ..................................................................... 8 6.1. 6.2. 6.3. 6.4. 7. OPEC cartel.............................................................................................................................. 8 Geopolitical Factors ................................................................................................................ 9 Weather Conditions .............................................................................................................. 10 World demand supply situation............................................................................................ 11
VARIOUS MARKET FACTORS AND CRUDE OIL ............................................................................... 11 7.1 Inflation Factors .......................................................................................................................... 12 7.2 Exchange Rates and currency pressure ...................................................................................... 13 7.3 Interest Rates .............................................................................................................................. 15 7.4 Oil Price Impact on the Stock Market ......................................................................................... 16 7.5 Gold and Silver prices.................................................................................................................. 17 7.6 Crude oil prices and the S&P500 index ....................................................................................... 18
FUTURE TRENDS.................................................................................................................................... 18 Berclay's Analysis 0f crude oil in 2008 vis a vis 2011 ............................................................................ 19
List of Figures and Tables Fig 1 : Crude oil production in world Fig 2: Region-wise share in production of oil Fig 3: OPEC Oil Production 1973-2009 Fig 4: World GDP and oil production
Fig 5 : World crude oil production and consumption
Fig 6: World oil consumtion viz-a-viz Non-OPEC production growth Fig 7: Forecast projection for global Peak Oil Fig 8: Correlation between crude oil prices and major currencies Fig 9: Correlations: Oil vs CAD/USD Fig 10 : Correlations: Oil vs CAD/USD Fig 11 : Price trend for gold, silver and oil Fig 12: Correlations Of Gold and silver prices with crude oil Fig 13: Correlations Of Gold and silver prices with crude oil Fig 14: Oil production world summary
Table 1: Top 14 exporters and their net oil exports Table 2: World Crude Oil Production and Consumption (2000-2009), Million Barrels Per Day Table 3: Monthly Change in the Price of Crude Oil MBA-AB 2010 Page 1
1. OVERVIEW
Crude oil is the most important energy source in a global perspective. About 35 percent of the worlds primary energy consumption is supplied by oil, followed by coal with 25 percent and natural gas with 21 percent. Transport relies to well over 90 percent on oil, be it transport on roads, by ships or by aircrafts. Total world production of crude oil is around 85 million barrels per day. The crude oil feeds a network of refineries at key locations located close to consuming centers or next to pipelines or shipping facilities. The crude oil is processed at the refineries and transformed into finished oil products. Therefore, the economy and the lifestyle of industrialised societies relies heavily on the sufficient supply of oil, moreover, probably also on the supply of cheap oil. Economic growth in the past was accompanied by a growing oil consumption. But in recent years the growth of the supply of oil has been slowing and production has now practically reached a plateau. This is happening despite historically high oil prices. It is very likely that the world has now practically reached peak oil production and that world oil production will soon start to decline at initially probably increasing rates. Because of the importance of oil as an energy source, and because of the difficulties of substituting oil by other fossil or renewable energy sources, peak oil will be a singular turning point. This will have consequences and repercussions for virtually every aspect of life in industrialised societies. Because the changes will be so fundamental, the whole topic is not popular. The oil industry is now admitting to the fact that the era of easy oil has ended. And the International Energy Agency, in stark contrast to past messages, is now warning of an imminent oil crunch in a few year time. The oil is primarily secured via term contracts as refiners are typically loath to rely too heavily on spot supplies as these may be unreliable and exhibit high price volatility. End users (airlines, manufacturers, etc.) operate similarly. The mechanisms for pricing crude and products vary by market sector and geographical region. Only 5-10%, is sold on the spot market. A spot deal is usually defined as a one-off deal between willing counterparties for a physical commodity. Because the deals are on a one-off basis, the spot market is representative of the marginal barrel in terms of supply and demand. Typically, spot sales are surpluses or amounts that a producer has not committed to sell on a term basis or amounts that do not fit scheduled sales. Thus main facts pertaining to crude oil are: 1. It accounts for 40% of worlds energy demand. 2. US hold 1.6% of world reserves but represent 23% of demand and imports 2/3rd of its oil requirement. 3. OPEC controls 80% of the world oil reserves. 4. Crude oil is characterised by high price volatility.
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Region-wise share in the production is as below: Fig 2: Region-wise share in production of oil
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In addition to the pace of world economic activity, oil demand has been further supported by the composition of growth across countries. China, India, and the Middle East use substantially more oil to produce a dollars worth of real output than the United States. These economies are among the fastest growing in the world; together they have accounted for nearly two-thirds of the rise in world oil consumption since 2004. Moreover, these economies still consume relatively little oil on a per capita basis. Over the longer term, as these economies continue to develop and incomes rise, per capita energy use is likely to increase further. While global demand has remained strong, overall non-OPEC production growth has slowed. In the past three years, non-OPEC production growth has been well below rates seen earlier this decade. World oil consumption growth has simply outpaced non-OPEC production growth every year since 2003. This imbalance increases reliance upon OPEC production and/or inventories to fill the gap. However, since 2003, OPEC oil production has grown by only 2.4 million barrels per day while the call on OPEC (defined as the difference between world consumption and non-OPEC production) increased by 4.4 million barrels per day. As a result, the world oil market balance has tightened significantly.
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Major demand centers are USA, EU, China, Japan and India. But the consumption was always more than production. The consumption pattern vis--vis production can be seen from the graph below: Fig 5 : World crude oil production and consumption
100,000.00 90,000.00 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 production consumtion
The rise in global economic activity has been accompanied by corresponding growth in world oil consumption. As depicted by table since 2003, world oil consumption growth has averaged 1.8 percent per year, representing an estimated 1 million barrels per day in 2008. Non-member countries of the OECD, especially China, India, and the Middle East, represent the largest part of this growth. Despite higher prices, growth in world oil consumption remains strong. But the reliance is majorly on OPEC countries only(refer below graph).
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Fundamental and Market Analysis of Crude oil Fig 6: World oil consumtion viz-a-viz Non-OPEC production growth
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Fundamental and Market Analysis of Crude oil Fig 7: Forecast projection for global Peak Oil
Peak Oil is a reality, the major cheap oil fields across the big producing nations have already passed their peak outputs and are declining fast in output and where discoveries of new economically recoverable reserves are not keeping pace with. We got a taste of the consequences of peak oil during 2008 when Crude oil soared to $147, where a small shift in the supply demand balance can cause extreme shifts in price as MARKET SENTIMENT (speculators) drives prices into ever increasingly volatile price trends.
Fundamental and Market Analysis of Crude oil barrels per day). The rest of the top ten sources, in order, were Algeria (0.336 million barrels per day), Iraq (0.325) million barrels per day), Angola (0.266 million barrels per day), Brazil (0.181 million barrels per day), and Colombia (0.179 million barrels per day). Total crude oil imports averaged 8.133 million barrels per day in December, which is a decrease of 0.576 million barrels per day from November 2009. Major exporters for crude oil are listed below:
Table 1: Top 14 exporters and their net oil exports Net oil (million of barrel /day) Exporters2
1. Saudi Arabia 2. Russia 3. Norway 4. Iran 5. United Arab Emirates 6. Venezuela 7. Kuwait 8. Nigeria 9. Algeria 10. Mexico 11. Libya 12. Iraq 13. Angola 14. Kazakhstan
exports (2009-2010)
8.65 6.57 2.54 2.52 2.52 2.2 2.15 2.15 1.85 1.68 1.52 1.43 1.36 1.11
Fundamental and Market Analysis of Crude oil output limits. Basically, OPEC acts as the swing producer in the world oil market. It controls that part of the world supply curve which is easiest to change and if it wants to keep oil prices high, then it can keep tight control on short run production so that supply does not run too far ahead of demand. OPEC has to tread a fine line, because if prices remain too high for a long period, then oil consumers have a clear incentive to look for alternative sources of energy or other non-oil substitutes in production.
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Fundamental and Market Analysis of Crude oil ruptured pipeline exploded as villagers scavenged for fuel in Nigeria, killed up to 200 and caused a 50% drop in the nation's oil output for a week. Also the world's biggest oil exporter is Saudi Arabia and thus it can highly affect the prices. On February 24, 2006, Islamic extremists took a bold daytime attack on the world's largest oil-processing facility, called Abqaiq close to Saudi Arabia's main export terminals on the Gulf coast. Although the attack was defeated at the security roadlock and did not affect the oil-processing facility's daily production at all, future contract 1 of WTI (to be delivered in March 2006) had a 3.4% price increase the next day. This is a terrific example of the magnitude of Saudi oil's influencing power to the global market.
6.3.
Weather Conditions
In terms of demand, the impact of weather is felt mainly for particular crude oils that enjoy especially wide cuts of the middle distillates that are needed for making heating fuels.In general, there is a swing between winter and summer oil demand of about 6 million barrels per day, or roughly 8.5% of average annual demand. This seasonal demand is driven primarily by winter fuel requirements across the developed countries of the Northern Hemisphere. Other seasonal patterns such as the peak in summer gasoline demand in the US and Europe or the winter fuel requirements of the Southern Hemisphere provide only a slight offset. The main fuels that drive this seasonal pattern are heating oil or gas oil in North America and Europe and kerosene in Asia. Also for example, For certain fields, such as those in Alaska and the North Sea, production peaks in the winter. In Alaska this is because of the greater efficiency of gas injection and in the North Sea it is because field maintenance is concentrated in a few summer months. Nigerian Forcados crude in the Atlantic Basin or Malaysian Tapis Blend in Asia. When demand for winter fuels is strong, refiners seek out these grades and pay premiums for them that reflect their richer yields. The heating oil markets of the US and Northwest Europe follow similar seasonal patterns and cope with the vagaries of the weather in fairly similar ways. The markets are also intertwined through arbitrage and cargoes will move east or west across the Atlantic according to relative price signals. In a peak week, arbitrage volumes can exceed 1 million barrels per day or more. The impact of weather is not all on the demand side. In periods of extreme cold, refinery operations are sometimes disrupted and the market looses extremely important sources of supply. This obviously exacerbates any tightness that the market is feeling from increased, weather-driven demand. These kind of incidents are rare but both the US Gulf Coast and the Mediterranean, which are both important export centers for heating oil and other products, have lost considerable refinery capacity for periods of days and weeks as a result of unexpected hard freezes that have disrupted operations. In Northeast Asia, the main winter heating fuel is kerosene, which is used in individual heaters rather than furnaces. Seasonality is most pronounced in Japan and
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Fundamental and Market Analysis of Crude oil Korea, and as with the heating oil markets of the US and Europe, refiners manage these requirements through a combination of inventories and processing flexibility. Consumer stocks are quite small relative to seasonal requirements, but the distribution systems have multiple layers of inventories.
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Fundamental and Market Analysis of Crude oil Fig 8: Correlation between crude oil prices and major currencies
During the month, EUR/USD rose by 0.88%; AUD/USD inclined by 0.58%; and USD/CAD fell by 0.56%. These figures show that US dollar depreciated during the month compared to other currencies. That being said, the daily fluctuations (around the trend) and not the trend of these exchange rates were probably linked to the daily percent changes of crude oil prices. Next figure shows the clearly positive relationship between oil and the Canadian loonie. In fact, it should come as no surprise that the price of oil actually acts as a leading indicator for the price action of the CAD/USD. Since the traded instrument is the inverse, or USD/CAD, it's important to note that based on the historical relationship, when oil prices go up, USD/CAD falls and when oil prices go down, USD/CAD rises. Fig 9: Correlations: Oil vs CAD/USD
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Fundamental and Market Analysis of Crude oil Source: FXCM Also looking at this from a net oil exporter/importer perspective, the currency pair that tops the list of currencies to trade to express a view on oil prices is the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen. Figure 2 illustrates the tight correlation between oil prices and CAD/JPY. More often than not, oil prices tend to be the leading indicator (as with USD/CAD) for CAD/JPY price action with a noticeable delay. As oil prices continued to fall during this period, CAD/JPY broke the 100 level to hit a low of 76. Fig 10 : Correlations: Oil vs CAD/USD
Source: FXCM
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As mentioned earlier, rising oil prices are part of an inflationary mega-trend, which means that as higher oil prices trend higher, the associated costs can be expected to be passed into consumers in an orderly manner, thus the peak oil mega-trend is bullish for nominal stock prices. The only fly in the ointment is that as illustrated by the oil price trend during the first half of 2008, when there was a serious divergence between the stock market and the oil price as mania gripped the market that sent inflation soaring, and thus as the oil price soared the stock market entered into a severe bear market. However this divergence did not persist as oil price bubble burst sending the oil price literally crashing lower, playing catch up to the stocks bear market into the March 2009 low.
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During June, daily percent changes of crude oil price (WTI) were strongly and positively correlated with gold and silver prices. The correlation was weaker than in May, but stronger than in February- April. Fig 12: Correlations Of Gold and silver prices with crude oil
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The abovementioned findings suggest that crude oil was strongly linked with the US stock market and gold and silver.
FUTURE TRENDS
Fig 14: Oil production world summary
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The oil production capacity of middle east, Africa, Latin America, South Asia, China and other oil producing countries after reaching a peak around 2008 dropped and are expected to drop even further by 2025. Bullish View for Crude Oil 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. More supply shocks Spare capacity cushion Refining bottleneck Robust demand for oil Rise in oil prices have not depressed oil demand.
Bearish View for Crude Oil 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Resolution of any geopolitical factors Knockdown risk premium Chinese economic growth Non OPEC supply will respond to higher oil prices Global demand for oil would
Fundamental and Market Analysis of Crude oil Barclays Capital in an analysis points out five factors that could make a repeat of 2008 impossible in the present scenario. 1) Libyan supplies are unexpected to return to world market in 2011: Considering the civil war and political tensions which means that 1.5 mn barrels per day would be out of supply from the market for a longer time. As of today, the cumulative loss of Libyan output since the start of the civil war amounts to 233 mb, nearly four times the amount released by the IEA and almost a third of the total size of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The absence of Libya has allowed Saudi Arabia to move its output above 9.5 mb/d and to eye 10 mb/d, without to date having to run any risk of oversupplying the market. 2) OPEC may not sell below breakeven: In 2008 when prices crashed to below $70 there was a strong compulsion on the part of OPEC to allow price to go below breakeven levels to kick start demand in consuming economies as they slid into recession. The present underlying issue for recessionary trends is caused by sovereign debt while Saudi Arabia and much of OPEC member nations. Barclays Capital said that it is very unlikely that Saudi Arabia will feel the need to sacrifice revenues to sell below breakeven levels. 3) No major demand crash expected: Barclays Capital points out there was a massive fall in US oil demand in 2008 September at 2.56 mn b/d on year-on-year basis and OECD oil demand fell 3.9 mn b/d in November 2008. In 2011 there are no projections or expectations of any falls in demand of that severity or anywhere close. Yes, US oil demand has weakened , but the damage has been contained to falls of 0.5 mb/d, not 2.5 mb/d. Considering demand for the main oil products. 4) Call on OPEC still rising: Even after a fairly sharp paring in estimates of oil demand growth, we are still forecasting a call on OPEC crude and inventories of 30.3 mb/d in Q3 and 30.5 mb/d in Q4). OPEC crude output in Q2 amounted to just 29.5 mb/d. In other words, we could cut our H2 demand estimates by a further 1 mb/d before OPEC even needed to cut anything if it wished to avoid an overall inventory build. To justify the scale of cut that OPEC made in 2008/9, H2 demand would have to be lower than the current forecast by 4 mb/d. The macroeconomic concern at the moment is of frustratingly low growth and more austerity, but not yet the sort of economic implosion that could produce a 4 mb/d fall in oil demand across all of H2. The call on OPEC in H2 that is larger than OPEC output in Q2. While another round of monthly reports due in the next week is likely to cut that gap, we doubt that it will remove it completely, particularly in the case of the IEA projections. We expect that the IEA will still think that OPEC should be adding oil the market, precisely at the time when OPEC thinks it should be taking oil away. That combination seems unlikely to be associated with any price collapse that could be sustained. In short, current fundamentals appear to be a far cry from those that drove the 2008/9 cycle, Barclays Capital said in the analysis. 5) The cycle repeats itself: During downswings below breakeven levels renewable economics and also oil sand economics began to break, and the whole supply-side reaction led much of the market to conclude that $100 per barrel for the back of the curve was now the new normal, and below that would represent low prices. The oil
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Fundamental and Market Analysis of Crude oil industrys ability to cope with lower prices without damaging future supply is limited On the demand side, lower prices fed into a sharp global demand upswing, leading to the fastest demand growth for 30 years, with demand growth in 2010 running at least twice as fast, and perhaps three times as fast, as the maximum the supply side could cope with into the medium term, Barclays Capital noted. Spare capacity of 6.5 mb/d quickly became spare capacity of just 2.5 mb/d. The lesson of the last cycle is that the further prices are forced below $90 and the longer they stay there, the faster the market tightens in the upswing. During that last downswing we wrote that we did not believe prices could be sustained into the medium term below $90. In the final analysis we believe that proved to be correct, prices could move below $90 but they could not be sustained below that level. Since then, cost inflation has returned and, as noted above, producer aspirations have moved upwards by some $20. We thus feel even more confident this time to reiterate that 2008 view that prices are not sustainable below $90 per barrel because of the associated damage to supply and the stoking up of demand that prices below that level represent. Indeed, in this particular aspect we suspect that $100 for Brent is probably the new $90 in terms of what is a sustainable price, Barclays Capital report said.
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