September 2011
Company Overview
o NYSE:
1% Mixes
o Founded
o Headquartered
o 9,500 o 4,400 o 41
Product Mix
highly efficient bakeries 2011 sales growth of 7% to 11% (including the impact of the Tasty acquisition)
3% All other
6% Convenience store
o Estimated
Flowers Foods is a leading baking company with diversified revenue stream and a culture of excellence.
Sales Channels
26% Foodservice
22.9% Flowers branded Total Dollar Sales* For breads, buns, rolls, bagels, English muffins in IRI South Market $3.4 billion 8.2% Flowers private label
*South Market - IRI Data latest 52 weeks ending 8/7/11 Supermarket/Mass/Drug only (does not include Walmart); chart data should not be used for historical comparison because of changes in geographic definition
$7 billion
White bread Soft variety bread Specialty bread Buns & rolls Sandwich Rounds Breakfast breads Bagels English muffins Dinner breads & rolls
Source: IRI Panel Data all outlets; includes grocery, drug, mass, sc, club, c stores/gas, dollar, specialty
Total Flowers Foods Total BBU Total Hostess** Total Pepperidge Farm Total Sara Lee Total Store Brand Unit share
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 YTD*
Total Flowers Foods Total BBU Total Hostess** Total Pepperidge Farm Total Sara Lee Total Store Brand
Source: IRI Food/Drug/Mass Excl Walmart; excludes cake and tortillas Source: Flowers IRI database restatement July 2011
$20 billion
White bread Soft variety bread Specialty bread Buns & rolls Sandwich Rounds Breakfast breads Bagels English muffins Dinner breads & rolls
Source: IRI Panel Data all outlets; includes grocery, drug, mass, sc, club, c stores/gas, dollar, specialty
Total Flowers Foods Total BBU Total Hostess** Total Pepperidge Farm Total Sara Lee Total Store Brand Unit share Total Flowers Foods Total BBU Total Hostess** Total Pepperidge Farm Total Sara Lee Total Store Brand
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 YTD*
Source: IRI Food/Drug/Mass Excl Walmart; excludes cake and tortillas Source: Flowers IRI database restatement July 2011
Acquisitions since 2004 2004 2005 Sara Lee TX bakery Royal Derst Key Mix Holsum Bakery ButterKrust Bakery Specialty Blending Leos Foods Tasty Baking
Organic Growth 3% to 5%
Acquisitions/Mergers 2% to 5%
EPS
* 5 years
double digits
11
Growth Drivers
Organic Growth
Population growth Retail growth Foodservice growth
Expansion Markets
Recent expansion Future markets Greenfield facilities
Acquisitions
12
Sales Growth
2011 Guidance 7.0% to 11.0% Growth* CAGR: 8.36% 2006 - 2010 In billions $3
CAGR Price/mix 5.02% Volume Acquisition 3.34% 8.36%
$2.57
$1.89
1.5
0.5
% Growth 10.1% 7.8% 18.6% 7.7% <1.0>% 5.7%
13
EBITDA*
CAGR: 12.91% 2006 - 2010
$287.3 250 200 $182.7 150 100
% Growth 15.2% 15.4% 10.3% 21.5% 10.6% 12.2% 11.0% 1.3% 11.3% 3.2% 11.4%
In millions $ 300
$291.0
$256.0 $210.8
50
% of Sales 9.7%
14
Gross Margin*
% of sales 50.0 49.7% 49.0% 47.7% 46.5% 47.7% 47.8%
Grow gross margin dollars Focus on gross margin expansion 2011 input cost pressure down 75 to 100 bps.
* Excludes depreciation & amortization. See reconciliation to GAAP gross margin on the companys Web site, www.flowersfoods.com. ** 53-week year
15
Efficiencies
Production Efficiency %
93 92 91 90 89 88 87.1% 87 86 85 84 2006
*53-week year
87.9% 87.2%
2007
2008*
2009
2010
1H2011
16
Other* 14.7%
Flour, 40.6%
Ingredients 49.0%
Other, 40.0%
Packaging 8.5%
* Includes natural gas
17
Control growth to low single digits Leverage technology 2011 down 80 to 100 bps
18
Earnings
Income
In millions $ 140
120
Diluted EPS
2011 Guidance Flat to 5%**
$ 1.6 CAGR: 17.69% 2006 - 2010
$130.3 $119.2
1.4 1.2 1
100 80 60 40
% Growth 19.1% 4.0% 26.4% 4.6% 26.0% 4.9% 9.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 3.1%
$94.6 $74.9
$76.8**
$.94
$.99
$.56**
20
% of Sales 5.3%
% Growth
22.7%
25.9%
25.0%
10.6%
5.3%
3.7%
19
Improved Productivity
Net Sales / Employee
In thousands $ 350 300 $261 250 200 150 100 50 0 2006
*53-week year
$296 $274
$292
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
$242
2007
2008*
2009
2010
2006
2007
2008*
2009
2010
20
Uses of Cash
$354.2
$169.3
$166.1
2010
Acquisitions*
Capital expenditures
Share repurchases
*In addition to cash, stock and debt are used to fund acquisitions. **Free cash flow is operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. ***53-week year
21
Growth/Expansion
Debt Maturities*
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $28.4 million $42.1 million $53.9 million $2.5 million $0.4 million
*In addition, at the end of Q2 2011 (July 16, 2011), $204.0 million was outstanding under the companys unsecured credit facility. This is being paid as excess cash is available.
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Bakery Investments
Total Capital Expenditures
In millions $ 120
13.5
$111.9
13.5
100
$97.0
$103.1
15.0
$89.0
2.1
$86.8
14.7
80
35.2
0 2006
*53-week year
2007
2008*
2009
2010
Capex
23
Operating leases
14.0% 12.0%
14.7% 13.6%
14.4%
*53-week year Numerator Income from continuing operations; Denominator Average beginning and ending shareholders equity and debt
24
CAGR 25.39%
$0.383 $0.305 $0.211
$0.450
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Dividend yield
1.2%
1.9% 44.9%
2.4% 45.1%
2.8% 47.9%
2.9% 52.2%
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2011 Outlook
o Uncertain environment
o Input costs
still volatile
confidence
7% to 11%*
27
2011 Outlook*
Sales growth
- Price/mix - Volume - Tasty Baking
7% to 11% 3% to 5% Flat to 1% 4% - 5% Forecast down 35.0% to 35.5% 137.0 million $85 to $90 million
28
Long-Term Growth
Market expansion Acquisitions New products Cost/margin management Exceptional execution
Driving
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Focus on
Growth
Core Markets Expansion Markets Acquisitions
30
FLO Growth
Growth strategycore, expansion, acquisitions
o Grow
in core markets by increasing share, innovative new products, further penetration of market geographic reach through market expansions
o Expand
Access to 58 million in population added since 2004 16 new lines added since 2004
o Build
new bakeries with efficient capacity located close to new markets acquisitions that extend our reach into new markets, bring synergistic savings, and new capacity
o Make
Flowers Foods has demonstrated success in a variety of avenues for sustainable growth
31
FLO Growth
DSD & capacity growth 2004 to present
DSD Territory
New bakeries/capacity since 2004 2011 DSD (direct store delivery) territory 2004 DSD territory The Direct Store Delivery (DSD) Segment handles fresh breads, buns, rolls, and snack cakes that are sold regionally through a system that reaches about 61% of the U.S. population.
32
2008 Holsum Bakery 2009 Leos Foods 2006 Derst Baking 2008 ButterKrust Bakery
33
34
100%
Salty Snacks Imitation Cheese Loaf Margarine RTE Cereal Carbonated Coffee Beverages Cookies Yogurt Orange Juice English Muffins Jam/Jellies Flour Ice Cream Pet/Convenience Water Mustard
Total US
Fresh Bread Cream Cheese Fresh Buns/ Natural Chuck Canned Vegetables Rolls/Bagels Cheese Cheese Slices Flavored Milk/ Buttermilk Processed Cheese Cottage Cheese
Rfg Butter Frozen Plain Vegetables Natural Cheese Shredded Whole Milk Eggs Skim Milk
50%
Commodities
0%
Source: Symphony IRI Reviews; Total US Region Foods, 52 weeks ending Source: Symphony IRI Reviews Total US FDMX; 52 weeks ending 12/26/11 12/26/10
35
Strong Brands
36
Natures Own
#1 soft variety bread brand in U.S. #2 loaf bread in U.S.
Source: Symphony IRI
37
Volume Sales
Total Arnold, Oroweat, & Brownberry $734,426,048 Total Natures Own incl. Whitewheat $449,102,112 Total Pepperidge Farm $448,689,472 Total Sara Lee Brand $382,169,120 Total Wonder $240,125,424 Total Stroemann $110,411,600 Total Freihofer $93,820,712 Flowers Sunbeam $83,214,312 Total Mrs. Bairds $76,306,048 Private Label Fresh Bread $1,697,064,832
(1.8) 3.6 0.5 (2.9) (0.7) (7.0) (4.0) (5.3) (2.6) (1.3)
333,688,224 217,076,016 157,469,968 191,299,184 125,602,344 60,744,516 49,050,736 49,753,368 50,390,144 1,394,236,288
(8.3) (2.0) (1.8) (6.7) (3.1) (15.6) (11.5) (14.1) (4.5) (3.9)
Source: Symphany IRI Reviews; Total US F/D/Mx; 52 weeks ending August 7, 2011
38
Brand Strength
In millions
$ 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
11.6% 6.3% 12.1% 17.5% 10.9% 19.2% 19.9% 18.9% 7.5% 8.2%
5.9%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Est.
Sales estimated using internal sales data; All dollars shown as retail; Includes Whitewheat
39
2005
2009
2010
2011
Thin Sliced Bagels First to the market with re-sealable bags The Thin Sliced Bagels are leading the segment growth in units and dollars in the South.
40
41
Cake Brands
42
Foodservice Sales
Total U.S. foodservice bread sales: $5.8 billion*
Flowers share of foodservice sales
47% 49% 31% 15% 26% 14% 6% Loaf/pan breads Commodity buns Sandwich rolls & wraps Meal accompaniment breads Total 13%
22%
24%
National
South
43
Full service
-1.3
1.5
Beyond restaurants
1.1
3.1
Total foodservice
0.7
-2 0 2
2.8
2010
Source: Technomic; May 2011 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages only
2011 forecast
44
45
Strengths
Flowers Foods
Focus on bakery foods category Proven strategies Supply chain excellence Technology advantage Experienced team Company culture
46
Investment Highlights
Experienced, dedicated management team Strong historical performance as foundation for growth Diversified product offering serving retail and foodservice channels 22.7% brand share in IRI South markets Proven growth strategy organic, market expansion, acquisitions Competitive advantages efficient bakeries, product innovation, independent distributors, information system Baked foods category strength
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2011 Events
February 8 February 15 March March May May August 1 22 19 25 17 2010 release/conference call FLO management at Deutsche Bank Conference/Naples, FL FLO management at KeyBanc Conference/NY Analyst Event at NYSE 1Q release/conference call Shareholders Meeting/Thomasville, GA 2Q release/conference call 3Q release/conference call
November 10
48
Forward-looking statement
Todays presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, particularly statements regarding future financial and operating results of Flowers Foods and its business. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs, and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied by the statements, due to changes in economic, business, competitive, strategic or regulatory factors, and factors affecting the operation of the business of Flowers Foods. More detailed information about these factors may be found in filings by Flowers Foods with the Securities and Exchange Commission, especially its Form 10-K, in the sections entitled Forward Looking Statements. Flowers Foods is under no obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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