Wind wave

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

(Redirected from Water waves)

"Ocean wave" redirects here. For the film, see Ocean Waves (film).

North Pacific storm waves as seen from the NOAA M/V Noble Star, Winter 1989.

Ocean waves

In fluid dynamics, wind waves or, more precisely, wind-generated waves are surface waves that occur on the free surface of oceans, seas, lakes, rivers, and canals or even on small puddles and ponds. They usually result from the wind blowing over a vast enough stretch of fluid surface. Waves in the oceans can travel thousands of miles before reaching land. Wind waves range in size from small ripples to huge rogue waves.[1] When directly being generated and affected by the local winds, a wind wave system is called a wind sea. After the wind ceases to blow, wind waves are called swell. Or, more generally, a swell consists of wind generated waves that are notor hardlyaffected by the local wind at that time. They have been generated elsewhere, or some time ago.[2]Wind waves in the ocean are called ocean surface waves. Tsunamis are a specific type of wave not caused by wind but by geological effects. In deep water, tsunamis are not visible because they are small in height and very long in wavelength. They may

grow to devastating proportions at the coast due to reduced water depth.

Contents
[hide]

1 Wave formation 2 Types of wind waves 3 Wave breaking 4 Science of waves 5 Wind wave models 6 See also 7 Notes 8 References 9 External links

[edit]Wave

formation

NOAA ship Delaware II in bad weather on Georges Bank.

The great majority of large breakers one observes on a beach result from distant winds. Five factors influence the formation of wind waves:[3]

Wind speed Distance of open water that the wind has blown over (called the fetch)

Width of area affected by fetch Time duration the wind has blown over a given area Water depth

All of these factors work together to determine the size of wind waves. The greater each of the variables, the larger the waves. Waves are characterized by:

Wave height (from trough to crest) Wavelength (from crest to crest) Wave period (time interval between arrival of consecutive crests at a stationary point) Wave propagation direction

Waves in a given area typically have a range of heights. For weather reporting and for scientific analysis of wind wave statistics, their characteristic height over a period of time is usually expressed as significant wave height. This figure represents an average height of the highest one-third of the waves in a given time period (usually chosen somewhere in the range from 20 minutes to twelve hours), or in a specific wave or storm system. Given the variability of wave height, the largest individual waves are likely to be about twice the reported significant wave height for a particular day or storm. [4]
[edit]Types

of wind waves

Surf in a rocky irregular bottom. Porto Covo, west coast of Portugal

Three different types of wind waves develop over time:

Capillary waves, or ripples Seas Swells

Ripples appear on smooth water when the wind blows, but will die quickly if the wind stops. The restoring force that allows them to propagate is surface tension. Seas are the larger-scale, often irregular motions that form under sustained winds. They tend to last much longer, even after the wind has died, and the restoring force that allows them to persist is gravity. As seas propagate away from their area of origin, they naturally separate according to their direction and wavelength. The regular wave motions formed in this way are known as swells. Individual "rogue waves" (also called "freak waves", "monster waves", "killer waves", and "king waves") much higher than the other waves in the sea state can occur. In the case of the Draupner wave, its 25 m (82 ft) height was 2.2 times the significant wave height. Such waves are distinct from tides, caused by the Moon and Sun's gravitational pull, tsunamis that are caused by underwater earthquakes or landslides, and waves generated by underwater explosionsor the fall of meteoritesall having far longer wavelengths than wind waves. Yet, the largest ever recorded wind waves are commonnot roguewaves in extreme sea states. For example: 29.1 m (95 ft) high waves have been recorded on the RRS Discovery in a sea with 18.5 m (61 ft) significant wave height, so the highest wave is only 1.6 times the significant wave height.[5]
[edit]Wave

breaking

Big wave breaking

See also: surf wave and breaking wave. Some waves undergo a phenomenon called "breaking". A breaking wave is one whose base can no longer support its top, causing it to

collapse. A wave breaks when it runs into shallow water, or when two wave systems oppose and combine forces. When the slope, or steepness ratio, of a wave is too great, breaking is inevitable. Individual waves in deep water break when the wave steepness the ratio of the wave height H to the wavelength exceeds about 0.17, so forH > 0.17 . In shallow water, with the water depth small compared to the wavelength, the individual waves break when their wave height H is larger than 0.8 times the water depth h, that is H > 0.8 h.[6] Waves can also break if the wind grows strong enough to blow the crest off the base of the wave. Three main types of breaking waves are identified by surfers or surf lifesavers. Their varying characteristics make them more or less suitable for surfing, and present different dangers.

Spilling, or rolling: these are the safest waves on which to surf. They can be found in most areas with relatively flat shorelines. They are the most common type of shorebreak Plunging, or dumping: these break suddenly and can "dump" swimmerspushing them to the bottom with great force. These are the preferred waves for experienced surfers. Strong offshore winds and long wave periods can cause dumpers. They are often found where there is a sudden rise in the sea floor, such as a reef or sandbar. Surging: these may never actually break as they approach the water's edge, as the water below them is very deep. They tend to form on steep shorelines. These waves can knock swimmers over and drag them back into deeper water.

[edit]Science

of waves

Stokes drift in shallow water waves (Animation)

Wind waves are mechanical waves that propagate along the interface between water and air; the restoring force is provided by gravity, and so they are often referred to as surface gravity waves. As the wind blows, pressure and friction forces perturb the equilibrium of the water surface. These forces transfer energy from

the air to the water, forming waves. The initial formation of waves by the wind is described in the theory of Phillips from 1957, and the subsequent growth of the small waves has been modeled by Miles, also in 1957.[7][8]

Stokes drift in a deeper water wave (Animation)

Motion of a particle in a wind wave. A = At deep water. The orbital motion of fluid particles decreases rapidly with increasing depth below the surface. B = At shallow water (sea floor is now at B). The elliptical movement of a fluid particle flattens with decreasing depth. 1 = Propagation direction. 2 = Wave crest. 3 = Wave trough.

See also: Airy wave theory. In the case of monochromatic linear plane waves in deep water, particles near the surface move in circular paths, making wind waves a combination of longitudinal (back and forth)

and transverse (up and down) wave motions. When waves propagate in shallow water, (where the depth is less than half the wavelength) the particle trajectories are compressed into ellipses.[9][10] As the wave amplitude (height) increases, the particle paths no longer form closed orbits; rather, after the passage of each crest, particles are displaced slightly from their previous positions, a phenomenon known as Stokes drift.[11][12] For intermediate and shallow water, the Boussinesq equations are applicable, combining frequency dispersion and nonlinear effects. And in very shallow water, the shallow water equations can be used. As the depth below the free surface increases, the radius of the circular motion decreases. At a depth equal to half the wavelength , the orbital movement has decayed to less than 5% of its value at the surface. The phase speed of the surface wave (also called the celerity) is well approximated by

where c = phase speed; = wavelength; d = water depth; g = acceleration due to gravity at the Earth's surface. In deep water, where , so and the hyperbolic tangent approaches 1, the speed c, in m/s, approximates , when is measured in metres. This expression tells us that waves of different wavelengths travel at different speeds. The fastest waves in a storm are the ones with the longest wavelength. As a result, after a storm, the first waves to arrive on the coast are the long-wavelength swells. When several wave trains are present, as is always the case in nature, the waves form groups. In deep

water the groups travel at a group velocity which is half of the phase speed.[13] Following a single wave in a group one can see the wave appearing at the back of the group, growing and finally disappearing at the front of the group. As the water depth d decreases towards the coast, this will have an effect: wave height changes due to wave shoaling and refraction. As the wave height increases, the wave may become unstable when the crest of the wave moves faster than the trough. This causes surf, a breaking of the waves. The movement of wind waves can be captured by wave energy devices. The energy density (per unit area) of regular sinusoidal waves depends on the water density , gravity acceleration g and the wave height H (which, for regular waves, is equal to twice the amplitude, a):

The velocity of propagation of this energy is the group velocity.

[edit]Wind

wave models

Main article: Wind wave model Surfers are very interested in the wave forecasts. There are many websites that provide predictions of the surf quality for the upcoming days and weeks. Wind wave models are driven by more generalweather models that predict the winds and pressures over the oceans, seas and lakes. Wind wave models are also an important part of examining the impact of shore protection and beach nourishment proposals. For many beach areas there is only patchy information about the wave climate, therefore estimating the effect of wind waves is important for managing littoral environments.

[edit]

Swell (ocean)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Breaking swell waves at Hermosa Beach, California

Swell near Lyttelton Harbour, New Zealand

A swell, in the context of an ocean, sea or lake, is a series surface gravity waves that is not generated by the local wind. Swell waves often have a longwavelength but this varies with the size of the water body, e.g. rarely more than 150 m in the Mediterranean, and from event to event, with swells occasionally longer than 700 m away from the most severe storms. Swells have a narrower range of frequencies and directions than the wind sea, because swell waves have dispersed from their generation area and have been dissipated.
Contents
[hide]

1 Swell dissipation 2 Swell dispersion and wave groups 3 Swell and surfing 4 Swell and coastal impacts 5 Swell and navigation 6 References 7 External links

[edit]Swell

dissipation

The dissipation of swell energy is much stronger for short waves, which is why swells from distant storms are only long waves. The dissipation of waves with periods larger than 13 s is very weak but still significant at the scale of the Pacific Ocean.[1] These long swells lose half of their energy over a distance that varies from over 20000 km (half the distance round the globe) to just over 2000 km. This variation was found to be a systematic function of the swell steepness: the ratio of the swell height to the wavelength. The reason for this behaviour is still unclear but it is possible that this dissipation is due to the friction at the air-sea interface.
[edit]Swell

dispersion and wave groups

Swells are often created by storms thousands of nautical miles away from the beach where they break, and the propagation of the longest swells is only limited by shorelines. For example swells generated in the the Indian Ocean have been recorded in California after more than half a round-the-world trip.[2] This distance allows the waves comprising the swells to be better sorted and free of chopas they travel toward the coast. Waves generated by storm winds have the same speed and will group together and travel with each other, while others moving at even a fraction of a metre per second slower will lag behind, ultimately arriving many hours later due to the distance covered. The time of propagation from the source t is proportional to the the distance X divided by the wave period T. In deep water it is t = 4X / (gT) where g is the acceleration of gravity. For a storm located 10000 km away, swells with a period T=15 s will arrive 10 days after the storm, followed by 14 s swells another 17 hours later, and so forth. This dispersive arrivals of swells, long periods first with a reduction in the peak wave period over time, can be used to tell the distance at which swells were generated. Whereas the sea state in the storm has a frequency spectrum with more or less always the same shape (i.e. a well defined peak with dominant frequencies within plus or minus 7% of the peak), the swell spectra are more and more narrow, sometimes as 2% or less, as waves disperse further and further away. The result is that wave

groups (called sets by surfers) can have a large number of waves: from about seven waves per group in the storm, this rises to 20 and more in swells from very distant storms.
[edit]Swell

and surfing

Information on swell size and period is useful for surfers, as swells are generally more desirable to surf on than normal, locallygenerated waves and chop. Swell size is typically the average height of the largest 33% of waves in a set, measured from the highest point of a wave (crest) to the lowest point (trough). Swell size is also known as the significant wave height. Period is the average length of time between each wave in a set. The significant period is the average period between the third largest waves in a wave record.
[edit]Swell

and coastal impacts

Just like for all water waves the energy flux is proportional to the significant wave height squared times the group velocity. In deep water this group velocity is proportional to the wave period. Hence swells, with usually longer periods, can pack a lot more energy that shorter wind seas. Also, the amplitude of infragravity waves increases dramatically with the wave period (typically like the period squared), which results in higher run-up.
[3]

Since swell-generated waves are mixed with normal sea waves, they can be difficult to detect with the naked eye (particularly away from the shore) if they are not significantly larger than the normal waves. From a signal analysis point of view, swells can be thought of as a fairly regular (though not continual) wave signal existing in the midst of strong noise (i.e., normal waves and chop).
[edit]Swell

and navigation

Swells were used by Polynesian navigators to maintain course when no other clues were available, such as on foggy nights. [4]
[edit]

Rogue wave
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article is about the deep ocean rogue waves which occur far out at sea. For tsunami and tidal wave phenomena, see those respective articles. For other uses, see Rogue wave (disambiguation).

The Draupner wave, a single giant wave measured on New Year's Day 1995, finally confirmed the existence of freak waves, which had previously been considered near-mythical

Rogue waves (also known as freak waves, monster waves, killer waves, extreme waves, and abnormal waves) are relatively large and spontaneous ocean surface waves that occur far out in sea, and are a threat even to large ships and ocean liners.[1] In oceanography, they are more precisely defined as waves whose height is more than twice the significant wave height (SWH), which is itself defined as the mean of the largest third of waves in a wave record. Therefore rogue waves are not necessarily the biggest waves found at sea; they are, rather, surprisingly large waves for a given sea state. "Rogue waves are not tsunamis, which are set in motion by earthquakes [and] travel at high speed, building up as they approach the shore. Rogue waves seem to occur in deep water or where a number of physical factors such as strong winds and fast currents converge. This may have a focusing effect, which can cause a number of waves to join together."[1]
Contents
[hide]

1 Background 2 History 3 Occurrence 4 Causes 5 Applications 6 Reported encounters

o o

6.1 Nineteenth century 6.2 Twentieth century

o o

6.3 Twenty-first century 6.4 Loss estimates

7 See also 8 References 9 External links

o o

9.1 MaxWave report and WaveAtlas 9.2 Other

[edit]Background Once thought by scientists to exist only in legends, rogue waves are now known to be a natural ocean phenomenon. Eyewitness accounts from mariners and damages inflicted on ships have long suggested they occurred; however, their scientific measurement was only positively confirmed following measurements of the "Draupner wave", a rogue wave at the Draupner platform, in the North Seaon January 1, 1995. During this event, minor damage was inflicted on the platform, confirming that the reading was valid. Satellite images have also confirmed their existence.[2] Freak waves have been cited in the media as a likely source of the sudden, inexplicable disappearance of many ocean-going vessels. One of the very few cases in which evidence exists that mayindicate a freak wave incident is the 1978 loss of the freighter MS Mnchen, detailed below. In February 2000, a British oceanographic research vessel sailing in the Rockall Trough west of Scotland encountered the largest waves ever recorded by scientific instruments in the open ocean, with a SWH of 18.5 meters (61 ft) and individual waves up to 29.1 meters (95 ft).[3] "In 2004 scientists using three weeks of radar images from European Space Agency satellites found ten rogue waves, each 25 meters or higher."[1] A rogue wave is not the same as a tsunami.[1] Tsunamis are caused by mass displacement, such as sudden movement of the ocean floor. They propagate at high speed over a wide area and are more or less unnoticeable in deep water, only becoming dangerous as they approach the shoreline and the ocean floor becomes shallower. They do not present a threat to shipping at sea (the only ships lost in the 2004 Asian tsunami were in port). A rogue wave, on the other hand, is a highly localized phenomenon both in space and duration, most frequently occurring far out at sea.[1]

Rogue waves may sometimes be referred to as "hundred-year waves," due to the supposed likelihood of their occurrence.[4] They should not be confused, however, with the hundred-year wave, which is a statistical prediction of the highest wave likely to occur in a hundred-year period in a particular body of water. These predictions are typically based on wave models which do not take rogue waves into account.[citation needed] [edit]History

Merchant ship labouring in heavy seas as a huge wave looms astern. Huge waves are common near the 100-fathomline in the Bay of Biscay.

It is common for mid-ocean storm waves to reach 7 meters (23 ft) in height, and in extreme conditions such waves can reach heights of 15 meters (49 ft). However, for centuries maritime folklore told of the existence of vastly more massive waves veritable monsters up to 30 meters (98 ft) in height (approximately the height of a 10-story building) that could appear without warning in mid-ocean, against the prevailing current and wave direction, and often in perfectly clear weather. Such waves were said to consist of an almost vertical wall of water preceded by atrough so deep that it was referred to as a "hole in the sea"; a ship encountering a wave of such magnitude would be unlikely to survive the tremendous pressures of up to 980 kPa (142 psi)[citation needed] exerted by the weight of the breaking water, and would almost certainly be sunk in a matter of minutes. Many years of research have confirmed that waves of up to 35 meters (115 ft) in height are much more common than mathematical probability theory would predict using a Rayleigh distribution of wave heights.[citation needed] In addition, pressure readings from buoys moored in the Gulf of Mexico at the time of Hurricane Katrina also indicated the presence of such large waves at the time of the storm. In fact, they seem to occur in all of the world's oceans many times

every year. This has caused a re-examination of the reasons for their existence, as well as reconsideration of the implications for ocean-going ship design. Rogue waves also occur on the Great Lakes. A phenomenon known as the "Three Sisters" is said to occur in Lake Superior when a series of three waves form that are one-third larger than the regular waves. The second wave hits the ship's deck before the first wave clears. The third incoming wave adds to the two accumulated backwashes and suddenly overloads the ship deck with tons of water. The House Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Navigation took testimony from commercial fisherman Lyle A. McDonald of Laurium, Michigan that the "Three Sister" phenomenon may have contributed to the infamous sinking of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior in November 1975.[5] [edit]Occurrence In the course of Project MaxWave, researchers from the GKSS Research Centre, using data collected by ESA satellites, identified a large number of radar signatures that have been portrayed as evidence for rogue waves. Further research is under way to develop better methods of translating the radar echoes into sea surface elevation, but at present this technique is not proven. [6][7] [edit]Causes Because the phenomenon of rogue waves is still a matter of active research, it is premature to state clearly what the most common causes are or whether they vary from place to place. The areas of highest predictable risk appear to be where a strong current runs counter to the primary direction of travel of the waves; the area near Cape Agulhas off the southern tip of Africa is one such area; the warm Agulhas current runs to the southwest, while the dominant winds are westerlies. However, since this thesis does not explain the existence of all waves that have been detected, several different mechanisms are likely, with localised variation. Suggested mechanisms for freak waves include the following:

Diffractive focusing According to this hypothesis, coast shape or seabed shape directs several small waves to meet in phase. Their crest heights combine to create a freak wave.[8] Focusing by currents Waves from one current are driven into an opposing current. This results in shortening of wavelength, causing shoaling (i.e., increase in wave height), and oncoming wave trains to compress together into a rogue wave.[8] This happens off the South African coast, where the Agulhas current is countered by westerlies.

Nonlinear effects It seems possible to have a rogue wave occur by natural, nonlinear processes from a random background of smaller waves.[9] In such a case, it is hypothesised, an unusual, unstable wave type may form which 'sucks' energy from other waves, growing to a near-vertical monster itself, before becoming too unstable and collapsing shortly after. One simple model for this is a wave equation known as the nonlinear Schrdinger equation (NLS), in which a normal and perfectly accountable (by the standard linear model) wave begins to 'soak' energy from the waves immediately fore and aft, reducing them to minor ripples compared to other waves. The NLS can be used in deep water conditions. In shallow water, waves are described by the Kortewegde Vries equation or the Boussinesq equation. These equations also have non-linear contributions and show solitary-wave solutions. A rogue wave consistent with the nonlinear Schrdinger equation was produced in a laboratory water tank in 2011.[10] Normal part of the wave spectrum Rogue waves are not freaks at all but are part of normal wave generation process, albeit a rare extremity.[8] Wind waves While it is unlikely that wind alone can generate a rogue wave, its effect combined with other mechanisms may provide a fuller explanation of freak wave phenomena. As wind blows over the ocean, energy is transferred to the sea surface. When strong winds from a storm happen to blow in the opposing direction of the ocean current the forces might be strong enough to randomly generate rogue waves. Theories of instability mechanisms for the generation and growth of wind wavesalthough not on the causes of rogue wavesare provided by Phillips[11] and Miles.[12]

The spatio-temporal focusing seen in the NLS equation can also occur when the nonlinearity is removed. In this case, focusing is primarily due to different waves coming into phase, rather than any energy transfer processes. Further analysis of rogue waves using a fully nonlinear model by R.H. Gibbs (2005) brings this mode into question, as it is shown that a typical wavegroup focuses in such a way as to produce a significant wall of water, at the cost of a reduced height. A rogue wave, and the deep trough commonly seen before and after it, may last only for some minutes before either breaking, or reducing in size again. Apart from one single rogue wave, the rogue wave may be part of a wave packet consisting of a few rogue waves. Such rogue wave groups have been observed in nature.[13] There are three categories of freak waves:

"Walls of water" travelling up to 10 km (6.2 mi)[citation needed] through the ocean "Three Sisters", groups of three waves[14] Single, giant storm waves, building up to fourfold the storm's waves height and collapsing after some seconds[15]

A research group at the Ume University, Sweden in August 2006 showed that normal stochastic wind driven waves can suddenly give rise to monster waves. The nonlinear evolution of the instabilities was investigated by means of direct simulations of the time-dependent system of nonlinear equations.[16] [edit]Applications The possibility of the artificial stimulation of rogue wave phenomena has attracted research funding from DARPA, an agency of the United States Department of Defense. Bahram Jalali and other researchers at UCLA studied microstructured optical fibers near the threshold of soliton supercontinuum generation and observed rogue wave phenomena. After modeling the effect, the researchers announced that they had successfully characterized the proper initial conditions for generating rogue waves in any medium.[17]. Additional works carried out in optics have pointed out the role played by a nonlinear structure called Peregrine soliton that may explain those waves that appear and disappear without leaving a trace [18] [19]. [edit]Reported

encounters

Main article: List of rogue waves It should be noted that many of these encounters are only reported in the media, and are not examples of open ocean rogue waves. Often, in popular culture, an endangering huge wave is loosely denoted as a rogue wave, while it has not been (and most often cannot be) established that the reported event is a rogue wave in the scientific sense i.e. of a very different nature in characteristics as the surrounding waves in that sea state and with very low probability of occurrence (according to a Gaussian process description as valid for linear wave theory). This section lists a limited selection of notable incidents. [edit]Nineteenth

century

The Eagle Island lighthouse (1861) water broke the glass of the structure's east tower and flooded it, implying a wave that surmounted the 40 m (130 ft) cliff and overwhelmed the 26 m (85 ft) tower.[20]

Flannan Isles (1900) three lighthouse keepers vanished after a storm that resulted in wave-damaged equipment being found 34 meters (112 ft) above sea level.[21][22]

[edit]Twentieth

century

SS Waratah - In 1909, it left Durban, South Africa with 211 passengers and crew but did not reach Cape Town, South Africa.[1] Voyage of the James Caird - In 1916 Sir Ernest Shackleton encountered a wave he termed "gigantic" while piloting a lifeboat/whaler from Elephant Island to South Georgia Island.[23] USS Ramapo (1933) triangulated at 112 feet (34 m).[24] RMS Queen Mary (1942) broadsided by a 92-foot (28 m) wave and listed briefly about 52 degrees before slowly righting. SS Michelangelo (1966) hole torn in superstructure, heavy glass smashed 80 feet (24 m) above the waterline, and 3 deaths.[24] SS Edmund Fitzgerald (1975) lost on Lake Superior. A Coast Guard report blamed water entry to the hatches, which gradually filled the hold, or alternatively errors in navigation or charting causing damage from running onto shoals. However, another nearby ship, the SS Arthur M. Anderson, was hit at a similar time by two rogue waves and possibly a third, and this appeared to coincide with the sinking around ten minutes later.[5] MS Mnchen (1978) lost at sea leaving only "a few bits of wreckage" and signs of sudden damage including extreme forces 66 feet (20 m) above the water line. Although more than one wave was probably involved, this remains the most likely sinking due to a freak wave.[9] Esso Languedoc A 2530m wave washed across the deck from the stern of the French supertanker, and was photographed by the first mate, Philippe Lijour, in 1980.[25] Fastnet Lighthouse Struck by 48 m (157 ft) wave in 1985 [26] Draupner wave (North Sea, 1995) First rogue wave confirmed with scientific evidence, it had a maximum height of 25.6 meters (84 ft).[27] RMS Queen Elizabeth 2 North Atlantic, September 1995, 29 meters (95 ft), during Hurricane Luis: The Master said it "came out of the darkness" and "looked like the White Cliffs of Dover." [28]Newspaper reports at the time described the cruise liner as attempting to "surf" the near-vertical wave in order not to be sunk.

[edit]Twenty-first

century

MS Bremen and Caledonian Star (South Atlantic, 2001) encountered 30meter (98 ft) freak waves. Bridge windows on both ships were smashed, and all power and instrumentation lost.[28] U.S. Naval Research Laboratory ocean-floor pressure sensors detected a freak wave caused by Hurricane Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico, 2004. The wave was around 27.7 meters (91 ft) high from peak to trough, and around 200 meters (660 ft) long.[29] Norwegian Dawn, (Georgia,[U.S.] 2005) On April 16, 2005, after sailing into rough weather off the coast of Georgia, Norwegian Dawn encountered a series of three 70-foot (21.34 m) rogue waves. The third wave damaged several windows on the 9th and 10th decks and several decks were flooded. Damage, however, was not extensive and the ship was quickly repaired.[30] Four passengers were slightly injured in this incident.[31] Aleutian Ballad, (Bering Sea, 2005) footage of what is identified as a rogue wave appears in an episode of Deadliest Catch. The wave cripples the vessel, causing the boat to tip for a short period onto its side. One of the few video recordings of what might be a rogue wave.[32] It has been suggested that these types of waves may be responsible for the loss of several low-flying aircraft, namely U.S. Coast Guard helicopters on Search and Rescue missions.[33] MS Louis Majesty, (Gulf of Marseille, Mediterranean Sea, March 2010). An unexpected pack of three waves of 26 feet (7.9 m) hit the ship while on a cruise between Carthagena and Marseille. Two passengers were killed in a lounge by flying glass from a shattered window. Damage to the ship was done by the second and third waves.[34][35] While this wave was much lower than freak waves appearing in open oceans, published evidence indicates that its behaviour was similar to that of freak waves.

[edit]Loss

estimates

Freak waves have been cited in the media as a likely source of the sudden, inexplicable disappearance of many ocean-going vessels. However, although this is a credible explanation for unexplained losses, there is to date little clear evidence supporting this hypothesis nor any cases where the cause has been confirmed, and the claim is contradicted by information held by Lloyd's Register.[36][37]One of the very few cases in which evidence exists that may indicate a freak wave incident is the 1978 loss of the freighter MS Mnchen.

Wave Basics Waveriders like you and I

share a unique relationship with the ocean. The waves we ride give us much pleasure, but also demand much from us. We spend countless hours in the water, and when we're not there it seems we spend equal time thinking about it. Eventually the object of our passion can become a demanding partner. Even when we try and deny her, we are drawn back. The sea can dominate our thoughts and control our lives, it can become an obsession. But do we really understand what makes the waves we lust after? Do we appreciate the gift that nature freely gives us? It seems knowledge and appreciation come with age. The more you experience, the more you want to know. The more you learn, the greater the appreciation and reverence. It is that knowledge and wisdom that build perspective and maturity. Here we hope to share some of our knowledge so that you can continue to build your own private relationship with the source of energy that gives so much to us. Today's satellite and modeling technology, in combination with the power of the Internet, provide us an opportunity to learn and know more about what makes the waves we ride than any previous generation of waveriders. Everything you'd possibly want to know is available at the tip of a finger. These pages are for those ready to step beyond the here and now; to jump forward to a new plane of understanding; to make a leap in appreciation for a sport that can

Central America Photo Courtesy: Joe Trotter

be easily taken for granted. How are waves made? Imagine a small pond, with no wind blowing on it, just pure calm glassy water. Now toss a pebble into the center of the pond. Once the pebble makes contact with the water, notice that small ripples move out in all directions from the point of impact. The ripples continue traveling away from each other until they encounter land, where they break (if you look real close) and dissipate. There's three things to consider from this example: 1) The ripples have a measurable size or height, 2) They travel towards shore with a measurable speed, and 3) They cover measurable distance that spans from their point of origin until they reach the shore. After the pond calms down, throw a bigger rock into it. Of course bigger ripples result. Observe that the ripples have a larger height and are moving away from their source faster this time. If you toss yet a bigger rock, bigger and faster waves result. Congratulations, you know all the basics about wave mechanics. But how does this translate into the real-world of open ocean swells? Simple, the ocean is our pond, and a storm is our rock. All the same principles apply, just on a much grander scale. Our pond is now 3000 or more miles wide and our rock is now 500 or more miles wide. A storm makes waves in much the same way as a rock, it uses mass to move or displace water. Wind can have a tremendous effect on water, especially when it blows for a long time. Waves are made by 'something' causing water to be displaced, and for our purposes, that 'something' is wind. How does wind make waves? Imagine our little pond again, only this time notice a slight breeze is starting to blow towards you at say maybe at 5-10 nautical miles per hour (kts). It's starting to texture the surface of the pond, nothing really measurable, but texture nonetheless. How is this happening? In short, molecules of moving air, being pushed by the breeze, are rubbing against the surface of the water, causing some water molecules on the surface to move in the same direction as the wind. As a few molecules of water start moving, they collide with others and set them in motion, and as the air keeps moving, so does the water. It's just basic friction. Now imaging the wind is kicking up a bit more, like say 20 kts per hour. As would be expected, the water texture turns a bit choppier as more and more molecules are set in motion. Over distance, the little chops start merging to create larger chops. As chops combine, the energy present in each one creates a larger and more energetic chop. The more energy, the faster the chop moves. The little chops have height, and they travel with a measurable speed, and if you could follow an individual one, you could measure the amount of time it takes to travel from one side of the pond to the other. As the wind continues to pick up, now to nearly gale force (34 kts), the chops are starting to whitecap and it starts looking downright stormy. The chops start combining into wind waves and they are bigger and moving faster still, and have more momentum energy associated with them. But let's consider a real open-ocean storm. Some storms are small in size but have very strong winds, while others are huge in size but have comparatively less wind velocity. Hurricanes are relatively small storms, that is, they rarely exceed more than

500 nautical miles (nmiles) in diameter, but can have maximum sustained wind speeds of over 150 mph over a small area near the center. Conversely, strong winter storms can cover well over a thousand miles but typically have sustained wind speeds of only 50-60 kts. Both are capable of making big wind waves, but not all wind waves are the same. What distinguishes a good windwave from just a bunch of chop? Ah, now we get to the fun stuff that has real relevance to wave riding sports. Wind waves, though rideable, are not the optimal type of wave one likes to ride. Swells are much better. Wind waves are only the raw material that swells are made from. But, the more energy wind waves accumulate while being driven by wind, the greater the likely-hood they will transform into a swell. Wind waves loose energy and height after they move away from the wind that produces them. What? That's right, wind waves start degenerating once they move away from the wind source that created them, unless enough underlying energy is present to transform the wind wave into a swell. Only if it accumulates enough energy while it's within the influence of the storm will it be able to survive for long once clear of it's source. Not enough energy and it dissipates due to the surface tension of the calm water that it moves through, enough energy and it can travel the entire circumference of the globe with only a slow decay in size!

Central America Courtesy: Casey Jones

What conditions are best for making swells? There are three factors that influence the level of energy contained in swells. Wind velocity, wind area (fetch), and duration. That is, the speed of the wind, the amount of ocean surface area affected by wind blowing in the same direction (also known as fetch), and the amount of time those winds blow over the same part of the ocean. Ideally, to make a huge swell, one would want strong steady winds blowing at maximum velocity over thousands of miles in the same direction (fetch aimed towards your beach) for days on end. But, our atmosphere is highly dynamic, and rarely do such conditions exist

or persist for long. During a typical open ocean winter storm, one could expect to see winds of 45-55 kts blowing over 600-1000 nmiles for 36 hours. In such a storm, the average highest wind waves (or 'seas') commonly reach 30-35 ft towards the center of the fetch area and produce a swell with a period of 17-20 secs. An interesting point to consider, as the winds in a fetch start to die, say from 50 kts down to 40 kts, they can't add any additional energy to the raw swell produced when the winds were at 50 kts. Instead they can only create new swells of lesser energy. Typically a North Pacific winter storm will start fading from it's max, with a prolonged fetch of 30-35 kts at the end of it's life. The swells produced at this time are not added to the peak swell energy produced when the storm was in it's prime. Instead, this results in production of other swells with lesser energy in the 11- 13 second range, which arrive at a far away beach long after the more energetic ones have hit and died. OK, so storms make large seas, but how does it actually transform into a swell? As the seas build under a storm, the speed of individual wind waves start accelerating as they combine and merge. The higher the wind velocity and larger the area and longer the time the wind blows, the greater the opportunity wind waves have to combine and grow. Within the storm, waves of many different energy levels are created. Eventually either the storm dies or the wave speed exceeds the forward speed of the storm, and these seas 'escape' into relatively calm waters. But these windwaves are rough, ragged and cover a wide energy spectra. Each individual wave is a mass of chop, bump and unruly un-groomed energy. But these waves have inertia and they're moving forward. Earlier it was mentioned that chop has little inertia or energy, so it dissipates when traveling distance. This works against swell production when a wind wave has little energy, because it dissipates. But when a wave has lots of time to accumulate energy, this works in its favor. In short, as a wind wave moves away from the storm, the choppy components dissipate, leaving only the pure swell energy to travel. For example, if seas heading towards a shore escaped close to land (say 500 nmiles or so), only some of the bump would have time to dissipate, and a combination of chop and swell energy would hit shore. But if the storm faded 2000 nmiles from shore, all chop would fade and clean swell energy would result (assuming there weren't local winds to create new chop to contaminate the swell). Such swells are known as ground swells. Ground swells from winter storms off New Zealand travel over 6000 nmiles to reach the beaches of South California, groomed clean of chop. (Technically a swell is not classified as a 'ground' swell until it starts to 'feel bottom', normally fairly close to shore. But most surfers consider a ground swell any swell with a period of 13 secs or greater. But more on this later). Swells that have more energy move faster than those with less energy. Over long distances, the more energetic swells, because they are moving faster, eventually over take and pass slower, less energetic swells. And swells that don't have enough energy, eventually die. So when swells pass a buoy or hit a beach after traveling several thousand miles, the ones with the most energy will arrive first, followed by slower moving ones (perhaps days later). For example, the first waves of a new swell might have a period of 20-25 seconds (secs), followed by 17 sec swells 2 days later, then 14 sec periods and 13 sec periods even days later, and so on. But more

on this later.

Velocity, Fetch and Duration Three factors come together to make huge waves: Wind Velocity, Fetch Area, and Fetch Duration All are present here as seas in excess of 40 ft are aimed right at the Western US coast. NOAA Wave Model Courtesy: Scripps Research Institute

Wave Trains, Groups, Sets and Consistency In deep water, as waves move away from the fetch that generated them, they form a continuous chain of swells known as a wave train. Wave trains radiate outward in all direction from the fetch, with the largest waves moving in the same direction as the winds within in the fetch. Over distance and time, waves that are moving at nearly the same speed keep pace with one another and form a group. There can be anywhere from 3-15 or more waves in a group. An interesting thing occurs as the group travels. A group normally consists of smaller waves in the lead, larger waves in the middle, and smaller waves again at the rear of the pack. Waves in the back of the pack move forward and build in size, peaking somewhere in the middle of the pack. When they reach the front, they start getting smaller again, then disappear, only to reappear again at the back of the pack. It becomes impossible to track an individual wave within a group in deep water due to this phenomenon. What is actually happening is rooted in the physics of deep water wave propagation (and is not just limited to ocean waves, but also other naturally occurring waves both in and out of the water). Individual waves in the pack move at twice the speed of the group, but are bound to the group by the energy they share. So though the individual waves move faster than the group, when they reach the front of the pack they get pulled back. It's two steps forward and one step back. Ultimately they only propagate at the group speed (which is half the individual wave speed) in deep water (more on this in a minute). Another explanation for the disappearing wave theory goes as follows: Groups of similarly paced waves eventually encounter other waves moving at close to the same speed and in the same direction. Minor differences in the speed of individual waves can give an observer the impression that waves in a group disappear. In fact, it is very difficult to track an individual wave in deep water because there are normally multiple wave trains interacting with one another. As one wave train moves 'into-phase' with another (that is, the two wave trains come close to matching each others speed for a short period of time), the height of those waves appears to increase. In essence, the waves move on top or through one another as one wave train overtakes another, giving them false height as they momentarily match speed.

As they move out of phase (separate because of difference in speed) the wave height decreases back to normal. Regardless of the explanation, as groups of waves move further away from their source in deep water (a thousand or more nmiles) the group becomes better defined, with waves of the exact same speed traveling together. If the waves in a wave train have sufficient energy (normally a period equal to or greater than 15 seconds), they can continue with little loss of size or energy, for thousands of miles or until they reach land and break. That's because at these periods (or wavelength) all the energy is traveling deep under the oceans surface, and there's little that can stop it (except for shallow water). A wave with a 14 second period reaches down into the ocean about 516 feet. A 17 second period wave at 761 ft, 20 second at 1053 ft and 25 secs to a whopping 1646 ft! So you can see how little impact an opposing wind wave with a 7 sec period reaching down only 129 ft would have on one of these long period deep water swells. Also, wave groups of different heights and periods can pass right through each other with no effect to each. In fact, other than shallow water or land, the only factor that causes significant decay is the surface tension of the ocean itself. The same tension that allows an insect to carefully walk on water has the long term cumulative ability to slowly sap the height out of a long period swell, but only over thousands of miles. Conversly, a short period swell is much more vulnerable to the affects of surface tension and opposing wind and waves becuase of it relative lack of energy. Eventually the group starts to encounter shallower water. When this happens the group velocity and the individual wave velocity become the same. As mentioned before, a group can have anywhere from 3-8 or upwards of 15 waves in it. In shallow water, this group is known as a 'set'. If watching the surf, you will occasionally notice a group of waves break that are bigger than the normal background surf. These 'sets' appear as often as every few minutes to once every half hour or more, depending on how far they have traveled to reach your shore. The further the travel time, the better the organization. In shallow water, the in-phase/out of phase phenomenon is no longer applicable. From a surfers perspective, this is good. It would indeed be difficult to catch waves if they disappeared from under you. Now it's time for a little math. The speed (in nautical miles per hour) of an individual deep water wave is about 3 times it's period (in seconds). That is, an individual wave with a 13 second period travels at 39 kts/hr. Contrary to what you might intuitively think, there is a linear relationship between wave period and wave speed. But because most deep water waves move in groups, the group speed is half that of an individual wave (within the group), or in this example about 19.5 kts/hr. As the wave moves into shallow water, the group speed and the individual wave speed become the same, so the individual wave starts traveling at the group speed, or 19.5 kts per hour. This wave speed formula is approximate, and actually wave speeds are a fraction different, but this is close enough for all but the most detailed surf forecaster. With this knowledge we can begin to understand the nature of sets, and what governs their frequency at your beach. As mentioned earlier, the further away the swell source (fetch), the better the opportunity for the deepwater group to organize. Since groups are really a collection of individual waves moving at the same period,

we can begin to understand why there is so much time between sets that travel a long distance. Consider a summer swell that reaches California and was generated 6000 nmiles away near New Zealand. Assume that two groups were generated at nearly the same time, one with a period of 17 secs, and another at 16.95 secs. That's right, only .05 secs difference. The 17 sec period group would take 226.24 hours to reach the coast, while the 16.95 sec group would take 226.91 hours, or a difference of .67 of an hour (40 minutes). Considering that 20-30 minutes is the standard 'wait-time' for southern hemi swells in California, you can see how this example is not too far off the mark. Each set is just a small fraction of a second shorter in period than it's predecessor. Now if the storm was a bit closer to the coast, say 4500 nmiles, then the travel time would be 169.68 hrs and 170.18 hrs respectively for the 17 and 16.95 sec period groups, or a difference of .5 of and hour or 30 minutes between sets. As the fetch moves closer to the coast, the wait time between sets progressively decreases. This holds true up to a point were the fetch gets too close to the shore, somewhere in the 1000 nmile mark. Now not all beaches have access to a thousand or more nmiles of exposed ocean, and even on coasts that do have such access, storms may form close to shore. In these conditions, sets (of sorts) still occur, but on a much less organized scale. Because the individual waves haven't have time and distance to organize into well defined groups of waves moving at the same speed, the sets have fewer waves in them, typically from one to three. And the sets don't arrive a the coast arranged with the most energetic wave first, but rather a mix of short and longer period waves jumbled together. If fact, these sets really aren't sets at all in the classical sense, but are really just a wave or two that are larger than the average. This could be due to a combination of any number of factors coming together at the same time and place to make a grouping of larger than average waves. It could be that a just a few waves of nearly equal speed arrive at the coast at the same time but haven't traveled sufficient distance or had time to be joined by many more waves (like classical set theory), or that waves of different periods are overtaking one another just at the point where they are interacting with land (modified rogue wave theory), or that a real swell from far off is arriving but buried under locally generated wind waves creating the impression of a local set. Or two groundswells or windswells from different directions are interacting to produce peaks. All these conditions can and do occur, which often makes it difficult to know exactly what swell you are riding and where it came from. Previously 'fetch' was defined as the amount/distance of ocean surface area affected by winds blowing in the same direction. One might presume that a storm sits relatively stationary over fixed area of the ocean, blowing up chop and waves equally in all directions. But, in reality, most large storms (other than hurricanes) typically follow the jet-stream, taking a course from west to east at anywhere from 20-30+ kts. In some instances, a storm's forward speed comes close to matching the speed of the waves it's generating. This allows progressively more chop (and energy) to start piling up on top of wind waves generated earlier in the storms lifecycle (providing the waves are traveling in the same direction the storms is heading). The wind waves arent given the chance to escape, but rather, build up to tremendous heights averaging 50 or more feet. Though a storm might have only 700 nmiles of proper fetch, if the storm travels 2,000 miles over several days heading in a constant direction at the right speed, the effective fetch area is 2000+ nmiles. That's the equivalent of 2000+ nmiles of core fetch over a multi-day period aimed at someone's

beach! There are tables that predict wave heights and period based on wind speed and fetch, but by any standard, such a situation is sure to create huge swells. When this situation occurs, it's called 'traveling fetch'. Traveling fetch is as much bound by meteorology as it is by simple geography. There are only a few west facing locations in the world which are bordered by several thousand miles of open ocean and positioned near the tracks taken by winter storms. Such locations include the Northwest United States, Western Australia, Chile/Peru and to a lesser extent Southern Europe. Hurricanes can create traveling fetch too, but since their fetch area is typically much smaller, the effect is less pronounced. Because some level of traveling fetch occurs in most every storm, this explains why the largest waves come from the front of the storm, and smaller or no waves come from the sides and back of a storm. But within the domain of traveling fetches, there is a category we call 'virtual fetch'. It is a special type of traveling fetch that is identified only by running the swell arrival calculations. When the fetch travels directly at a beach at just the right speed such that the swell it generates over multiple 12 hour intervals arrives a nearly the same time for a given frequency (period), then we call the fetch a 'virtual fetch'. That is if the 17 second period swell generated from a storm on say Saturday a 5 AM, 5 PM and Sunday 5 AM all is expected to arrive a location X on Tuesday at noon, then we say the storm produced virtual fetch. But what does virtual fetch have to do with sets? Well not every swell generated from over a thousand miles away produces sets with 10 or more waves. It is really a factor of the internal organization of the storm that generates the swells and it's propensity to generate virtual fetch. The better the internal organization and more virtual fetch, the greater the potential to generate sets that contain a large number of waves. For swells generated over the North Pacific that impact the US west coast, it is not uncommon for a set to contain upwards of 15 waves. Such swells can be traced directly to the storms capacity for generating virtual fetch. What common units of measure are applied to open ocean waves? There are two attributes used to measure open ocean waves: Height and Period. Wave height is the distance from a wave's trough to its crest (i.e. amplitude). The crest is the top of an unbroken wave, the trough is at the bottom of the front of the wave. Wave period is the amount of time (in seconds) it takes from the moment one wave crest passes a fixed point until a second wave crest passes that same point. Typically one will hear waves described like, " It's 5 ft @ 13 seconds". What this means is that the average height of the largest 33% of the waves are 5 ft and that the average period (time between wave crests) of the most prevalent swell is 13 seconds. But waves measurements come in two flavors: SignificantSeas and Swell. In general, if you have a choice between obtaining Significant Sea or Swell data, use Swell data. Significant Seas dont exist in the real world from a surfing perspective. "Seas" are the combined sum of the heights of all waves present at the reporting station. Think of it as the average wave size. For example, it there is a 5 ft swell coming from the north, and a 3 ft swell coming from the south, it would be reported as a 6 ft sea. ('Seas' are actually the square root of the sum of the squares of all wave energy present). Add in a bunch of open-ocean chop and it really starts to skew the results. Surfers don't typically ride two separate waves coming from two different directions

simultaneously. So the seas measurement is actually overstates actual wave size. But if you're in a boat at sea, significant sea heights are very important. They help set an expectation concerning the size of waves you might encounter. If you're in or near a major fetch area (a storm), waves of different heights and period momentarily combine as they pass through each other to form larger waves. It makes no difference whether it's chop or swell. On average, about 15% of waves will equal or exceed the significant wave height. The highest 10% of waves could be 25-30% higher than the significant wave height. And on occasion (about one per hour) one can expect to see a wave nearly twice the significant wave height. And then there are rogue waves, those that exceed twice the significant wave height. For example, in 1933 the USS Ramapo reported encountering a record 112 ft wave. On September 6th 1995, the ship Teal Arrow was in the center of Hurricane Luis where central pressure was measured at 942 mbs. The ship reported sustained winds of 64 kts and later at 99 kts. Gust were 125 kts and wave heights to 50 ft were reported. But on September 11th, during the same hurricane, the Queen Elizabeth 2 (QE2) hit a 95 ft wave 200 nmiles south of eastern Newfoundland and 120 nmiles southeast of Luis's center. In these cases the large waves were probably the result of 2 large waves traveling at about the same speed/period momentarily combining to form one giant wave. In 1995, the QE2 was reporting significant seas of 46 ft and winds were sustained at 80 kts with gusts over 100 kts. A nearby Canadian buoy reported peak waves of 98 ft at about the same time. Clearly they were in the middle of a storm. Statistically, one would have expected the QE2 to encounter about 1 wave twice the significant sea height once per hour (46 ft x 2 = 92 ft). It is theorized that such waves dont last for more than a minute or so, as slight differences in speed cause them to separate. And once seas escape their source, and start to travel long distances, these raw wind waves start getting groomed into swells, and their highly variable character fades. On average, most boaters encounter waves that are only about 65% the height of the reported significant sea, since most avoid storms for obvious reasons. From a surfing perspective, rogue waves are far from the norm, since surfing is near impossible in winds over 25 kts. Perhaps the largest wave a surfer will ever encounter on any particular day is that which is reported as the significant sea height. This happens when a ground swell and a locally generated wind wave coming from the same direction converge. But swells have more energy, and are easier to catch, so they will be what most of us ride. If both a swell and reasonably long period wind waves are present, then the upper limit one might experience could approach the significant sea height. Surfers and boaters notoriously overestimate the size of the waves they encounter, and statistically, significant sea measurements help sustain that practice. But, a far better measure of unbroken waves is the Swell height and period. Swell height is the 'average' height of the highest 1/3 of the most energetic swells present at that reporting station (a buoy), and is most likely what one would ride if surfing near that location. Likewise, swell period is the average period of the most energetic swells. Use swell data whenever possible. Chop tends to have a period ranging from 3-8 seconds. That is, there is anywhere from 3-8 seconds between each wave crest. Wind waves range from 9-12 seconds. Ground swells range from 13-15 seconds, and strong ground swells have a period

anywhere from 16-25 or more seconds. The next time you're in the water, try measuring the amount of time between wave crests. Though shallow water tends to distort the times as compared to what you'll see reported at buoys, the comparative effect is still the same. What you should find is that on days where the surf seems weak, the period will be short. And on days where waves of equivalent height seem strong, the period will be longer. You should also find that on long period swells, it seems like a lot more water is moving around as compared to shorter period swells of the same height. That's because it is! Longer period swells have a lot more energy and are moving a lot faster than their short period counterparts, and so there's a lot more water movement. A 3 foot swell with an 8 second period moves at about 12.48 nautical miles per hour. But the same 3 foot swell with a 22 second period moves at about 34.32 nautical miles per hour. Thats almost 3 times as fast! And moreso, the longer the period, the larger the wave will be when it breaks (all other things being equal). That's because a longer period swell affects water much deeper in the ocean than short period swells. Long period waves move faster and deeper. In short, swell period is more important than height. Also, swell speed is directly proportional to its period. It's a linear relationship. As period increases so does swell speed. And all swells of the same period travel at the same speed, regardless of size. That's right. A 2 ft swell with a 20 sec period moves the same speed as a 25 ft swell with a 20 sec period. If you can predict the period of a forecasted swell, and know how far away the storm is from your location (in nautical miles), you can accurately determine the arrival time of the swell, regardless of it's size. You've also undoubtedly noticed that swells come from different directions. Some swells come from the north, others from the south, depending on the time of year and location of your beach. Swells and waves are directional, that is, they originate from different locations and arrive at your beach from different angles. The angle a swell originates from relative to a fixed location (your beach) is called swell direction or swell angle. Swells coming to you beach from due north (and are therefore heading south) are said to be coming from 0 degrees. Swells coming from due east and heading due west are coming from 90 degrees. Swells originating from due south and heading north are coming from 180 degrees, and so on around the 360 degree compass. Likewise, if you know where a storm is located relative to your beach, and you know that storm has fetch aimed in your direction, then you can estimate what the swell direction will be when it hits. If the fetch area in the storm is located due north of you, the swell will come from 0 degrees. If it's located due east of you, then the swell will come from 90 degrees, and so on. Swells travel away from their source on Great Circle paths or routes. A Great Circle path is the shortest distance between two locations on a spherical object, like our planet. Surf forecasters use great circle paths to determine whether fetch (wind) is blowing towards your beach. One end of the path is your beach, and the other is located at the center of a suspected swell generating fetch area. If sufficient wind is blowing down (parallel) to a great circle path that ends unobstructed at your beach, then a swell could result. Winds blowing less directly down that path result in smaller swells. Typically, swell size decreases to 85% of it's potential if the wind in a fetch area is blowing 30 degrees off axis (non-parallel). Use QuikSCAT satellite imagery to verify whether fetch is blowing down a path that ends at your beach. For distances less than 500 nmiles, the great circle paths to your beach are generally a straight line. But for distances greater than 500 nmiles, the curve of a great circle path

becomes important. Great circles are also used to mark the edges or boundaries of a swell window. Click here to see great circle paths for many breaks around the world.

Great Circle Paths Here is a sample of the great circle paths from the South Pacific and Indian Oceans to Southern California. The great circle paths are the black lines that radiate out from Southern California. If winds (within a storm that is positioned on these paths) are blowing parallel to the paths, then the swell these winds produce will travel right down the path to the California coast. Also notice how the paths converge again in the Indian Ocean, exactly half way around the planet. It would take a tremendous storm to produce waves that would actually be measurable by the time they reached the California coast, but theoretically it is possible.

Great circles are the line that results on the surface of a sphere when you pass any plane through that sphere so that the plane intersects the sphere's center. In layman's terms, it's the path that results when you try and draw a true straight line on a globe. Rather than using globes, meteorologist and surf forecasters use maps to view the surface of the earth. When you take a sphere (a 3 dimensional object) and try to flatten it out to two dimensions (like a map or computer image), distortion results. There are many types of map projections and each attempts to deal with this distortion in different ways. The most common map is the Mercator projection, but it grossly exaggerates surface area towards the poles. This results in Greenland looking to be as large as the continental United States, when in reality it is about one third as large. When looking at great circle charts, map distortion exaggerates the natural curve of great circles, especially over long distances towards the poles. Great circles paths tend to curve towards the poles, and for a good reason. That's because the shortest distance between two points on a globe is not a straight line. This phenomenon become really pronounced over longer distances. Say you want to map the shortest course from Orlando Florida to London England. Your natural inclination would be to draw a freehand straight line between Orlando and London. But if you use the straight edge of a piece of paper as a guide, you'd soon find that it was nearly impossible to recreate the freehand line you drew previously. Every time you pull the paper tight between the two endpoints, the paper starts creeping to the north. The resulting track ultimately starts creeping over Newfoundland, almost 300 nmiles north of your freehand track. If you were to measure the two tracks, you'd also find the northern most route was the shortest. That path is the great circle path. Obviously waves that encounter land or shallow water break and dissipate. So, for a

wave to reach your beach, it must be able to propagate unobstructed from it's source (a storm) to you, without encountering a continent, island, isthmus, point, or shallow underwater shelf. Even land masses a thousand miles away can have a significant impact on arriving swells. The set of compass headings or great circle paths that provide unobstructed swell access to your beach is know as your 'swell window'. Each beach or break has a different swell window. For example, Cocoa Beach, Florida is bound on the north by Cape Canaveral and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It is also constrained from the south by the Bahama Islands. The effective swell window for this location is about 31 degrees through about 115 degrees south. Any storms that have sufficient fetch aimed at Cocoa Beach, and are positioned within that 'window' of great circle paths, have the potential to generate surf there. So far we've discussed only individual swells from a single source. But in reality, any beach can experience multiple swells coming from multiple directions simultaneously. If you were to observe and catalog all the waves passing a fixed point anywhere in the ocean, during a 10 minute time period, you might find a large variety of waves present. A few waves might be coming from 180 degrees with a height of 1-1.5 feet and periods ranging from 15-18 seconds. Many others might come from 270 degrees with a height of 4-5 feet and periods ranging from 10-13 seconds. And yet others from 310 degrees with a heights of 5-6 inches and periods from 4-8 seconds. A Directional Spectrum image depicts the period, direction and density of all waves present at a fixed location for a preset period of time. Spectral analysis data is produced from buoys that have height, period and directional sensors installed. The output from these buoys is very useful for getting a quick yet comprehensive analysis of the sea conditions at the buoys location. Unfortunately, such buoys are relatively rare.

Directional Spectrum Notice a weak wind swell at 11 secs from 305 degrees, with even less period chop from the same angle. Also some weak energy at 13 secs coming from 165 degrees (most likely an anomaly). Image Courtesy: Coastal Data Information Program

But earlier we mentioned wave density or spectral density. What is spectral density? It is an image that identifies the relative wave energy present at all frequency/periods at a fixed location for a predefined time period, regardless of the energy's directional heading. Though wave density charts dont show direction, they provide a good image of what period bands have the most energetic waves. And of greater interest, operational buoys with this capability are fairly common. If you are expecting arrival of a high energy swell, and there is lot's of low energy 'noise' wind waves present, monitoring wave density or spectral analysis data can provide early signs of the swells initial arrival.

Spectral Density The Spectral Density image depicts all the energy present in each wave period range. Notice most energy is concentrated at the 15-17 sec range, but chop energy is present down to 4 seconds, and very powerful groundswell energy is present from 17 secs out to 25+ secs. Image Courtesy: National Data Buoy Center

It's matter of experience and choice as to what size, period, and swell direction each of us prefers, but if you know what the swell conditions are before you set foot in the water, you'll be a lot better prepared. Much more explanation about buoy measurements and how this translates into a breaking wave face heights can be obtained here.
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Weather Basics
What is a storm? We've determined that swells are made by wind, and wind comes from storms. But what really is a storm? Well, let's start with some basics. Air covers the surface of our planet and has mass, that is, it has weight and volume, and it can be made to move. That's fairly obvious. But what causes it to move? Our atmosphere is dynamic, and it's temperature constantly changes in response to rotation of the planet, changes in seasons and earth's orbit around the sun. Why is temperature important? Because hot air is less dense than cold air, and when hot and cold air collide, the hot air is forced to rise over the colder air. Cold air typically is

dryer than warm air and originates from our planet's poles. Warm air comes from the tropics/equator. Whenever cold dry air moves away from the poles, it eventually encounters warm wet air moving away from the equator. The warm wet air is forced up and over the cold air. When the warm air is forced up, it causes surface air pressure to drop, sort of like having a small vacuum develop at the earth's surface at the boundary between the two air masses. Cold air rushes in to fill the area of lower air pressure, which causes more warm air to be displaced upward, and more cold air moves in, forcing more warm air upward, and a cycle starts to develop. Also, factorin that the earth rotates from west to east, dragging the atmosphere with it. The lowpressure area (also known as a low pressure center or system) starts to rotate, and all this moving air creates wind, and lots of it. In the north hemisphere, wind rotates counter-clockwise around a storm center, and clockwise in the south hemisphere (this driven by the Coriolis effect). So a storm forms in response to an extreme difference in air pressure, driven by the movement of cold and warm air. Eventually either the cold or warm air dissipates, and equilibrium becomes re-established and calm, less-windy weather prevails. A storm can last as short as a few days to over a week. Our atmosphere is covered with areas of relatively high and low pressure, all driven by collisions between cold polar and warm equatorial air masses (for the most part). From a bird eye view, it is this difference in pressure between high and low-pressure systems that makes wind.

Storm Surface Pressure Image

An extreme difference in air pressure: 1016 mbs outside the storm center to 963 mbs in the center, 53 millibars of difference! Image Courtesy: University of Washington

Our atmosphere likes equilibrium and dislikes differences is pressure. So when low pressure develops, air pours in to fill it. It's just like pulling the plug out of a bathtub full of water. The water from the tub rushes in to fill the hole in the drain. You might think the water is pulled down by gravity, but if the drain were already full of water, the water in the tub would stay put. In the atmosphere, rather than the air draining 'down', it drains 'up' towards the less dense environment of the upper atmosphere. Air moves from areas of relatively high pressure towards areas of relative low

pressure to create equilibrium. The greater the pressure difference, the stronger the wind. Surface air pressure can be measured by a device called a barometer. A barometer indicates pressure in units known as millibars (mbs) or inches of mercury. Without getting into the mechanics of how barometers operate, it's safe to say that barometers are the standard for measuring surface air pressure for weather purposes. If you live at sea level near the equator, standard 'normal' sea level air pressure would be about 1000 mbs. If a relatively strong high-pressure system were to move over your home, the barometer might indicate the pressure at around 1020 mbs. Conversely, if a strong low-pressure system were to move in, the barometer might register about 970 mbs. (Surface air pressure tends to be less as you travel north or go up in elevation). Of note, both high and low pressure systems typically cover at least many hundreds of miles in area, and move rather slowly. So you typically wont see a change in pressure from one extreme to the other in a matter of hours, but more over a time periods of days or weeks. And it's highly doubtful you'll feel the change in air pressure, but you'll certainly see the weather changes associated with pressure change. Under high pressure, weather is typically fair, skies cloudless. But under low pressure, rain, wind and inclimate conditions prevail. The greater the difference in air pressure between two competing systems, the greater the wind. And the greater the surface area covered by low pressure, the greater the size of the area of wind will be. Since strong wind is typically associated with storms, and since storms are characterized by low pressure, surf forecasters typically track and look for developing areas of low pressure, preferably large ones. The deeper or lower the pressure, the stronger the storm, the stronger the wind, and the greater the probability for surf to be generated. The larger the area of low pressure, the larger the fetch or ocean surface that will be affected by the resulting wind. Of course, to generate a large swell, the three requirements we discussed earlier must be met: High wind velocity, large fetch area, and long lasting winds. The ideal big wave set-up is to have a massive deep storm surrounded by extreme high pressure. And the systems must be positioned so that the fetch is aimed towards your beach for a long time. In reality, this rarely happens, but rather you get either a massive storm surrounded by relatively normal conditions, or a moderate storm surrounded by strong high pressure for a day or two at best. So does this set-up look like? Funny you should ask