PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI

Forecasting

1
 What is Forecasting?

Proses prediksi
Sales will
terhadap kejadian/hal be $200
dimasa depan Million!

Cakupan forcasting di
dunia bisnis
 Produksi
 Inventory
 SDM
 Fasilitas

2
Jenis Forcasting berdasarkan
rentang waktu

Short-range forecast
 S/d 1 th; biasanya kurang dari 3 bulan
 Penjadwalan pekerjaan, penugasan operator

Medium-range forecast
 3 bulan s/d 3 tahun
 Perencanaan penjualan & produksi, budget

Long-range forecast
 > 3 tahun
 Perencanaan produk baru, Pemilihan lokasi

3
Pengaruh dari Product Life Cycle
Introduction, Growth, Maturity, Decline

Pada tahapan introduction and growth

membutuhkan peramalan yang lebih lama
dari pada tahapan maturity and decline

Peramalan berguna dalam memperkirakan :
 Jumlah karyawan,
 Tingkat inventory
 Kapasitas pabrik,dsb
dari setiap tahapan Product Life Cycle

4
 Strategi and Isu selama Product’s Life
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Masa terbaik Practical to change Poor time to change Cost control
untuk price or quality image, price, or quality critical
meningkatkan image
Market Share Competitive costs
Strengthen niche become critical
R&D product
Company Strategy/Issues

engineering Defend market position

critical Drive-thru restaurants Fax machines
3 1/2” Floppy
disks
CD-ROM
Sales
Station
Internet wagons
Color copiers

HDTV

Product design and Forecasting critical Standardization Little product

development critical Product and process differentiation
Less rapid product
Frequent product and reliability changes - more minor Cost minimization
OM Strategy/Issues

process design changes Competitive product changes

Over capacity in the
improvements and Optimum capacity
Short production runs options industry
High production costs Increasing stability of Prune line to eliminate
Increase capacity process items not returning
Limited models Shift toward product good margin
focused Long production runs
Attention to quality Reduce capacity
Enhance distribution Product improvement
and cost cutting
5
Jenis Peramalan/Forcasting

Economic forecasts
 Terkait dengan siklus bisnis, seperti laju
inflasi, supply uang, dsb

Technological forecasts
 Peramalan perkembangan teknologi
 Memperkirakan tingkat penerimaan produk
baru di konsumen

Demand forecasts
 Memperkirakan permintaan/penjualan
terhadap produk yang sudah ada

6
7 Langkah dalam Forecasting

Tentukan kegunaan/tujuan peramalan

Pilih item yang akan diramalkan

Tetapkan jangka/rentang waktu peramalan

Pilih model Forcasting yang sesuai

Kumpulkan data

Lakukan perhitungan peramalan/forcasting

Lakukan validasi dan terapkan hasil
peramalan.

7
 Grafik permintaan produk dalam kurun
4 tahun
Puncak musiman Garis trend/kecendrungan
Permintaan produk/jasa

Garis
permintaan
aktual
Rata-rata
permintaan
Variasi selama kurun
acak waktu4 tahun
th th th th
1 2 3 4

8
Pendekatan Peramalan
Metode Kualitatif Metode Kuantitatif

Digunakan untuk
Digunakan pada situasi
situasi yang tidak pasti yang stabil dan data
dan data yang sedikit pendukung lengkap
 Produk baru (history)
 Teknologi baru  Produk saat ini

Melibatkan intuisi dan  Teknologi saat ini
pengalaman
Melibatkan perhitungan
 Contoh : peramalan matematis
penjualan di internet  Contoh : peramalan
penjualan TV berwarna

9
Beberapa Metode Kualitatif

Jury of executive opinion
 Merangkum opini/pendapat para pimpinan
tertinggi perusahaan

Delphi method
 Kumpulan para ahli, membahas tentang satu
masalah spesifik secara berkesinambungan

Sales force composite
 Tiap sales ditanyakan target penjulannya yang
masuk akal, lalu diakumulasikan

Consumer Market Survey
 Memberikan pertanyaan pada konsumen
10
Jury of Executive Opinion

Melibatkan grup kecil dari manager tingkat

tinggi
 Grup memperkirakan permintaan dengan

diskusi secara bersama sama

Mengkombinasikan pengalaman manajerial
dan model statistik

Relatif lebih cepat

Pemikiran grup

11
© 1995 Corel Corp.
 Sales Force Composite

Tiap sales memperkirakan

Sales
target penjualannya

Datanya diakumulasikan di
tingkat wilayah & nasional

Sales mengetahui
kebutuhan pelanggannya

Cenderung terlalu
optimistik
© 1995 Corel Corp.

12
 Delphi Method

Proses
berkesinambungan Decision Makers
dalam 1 grup (Sales?)

3 kelompok perwakilan Staff (Sales will be 50!)
grup (What will
 Pengambil keputusan sales be?
 Staff survey)
 Responden

Mengurangi pemikiran 1 Respondents
grup saja (Sales will be 45, 50, 55)

13
Consumer Market Survey

Berapa lama anda akan

Menanyakan menggunakan internet
konsumen tentang bulan depan?
rencana pembelian

Apa yang dikatakan
konsumen dengan
yang sebenarnya
dilakukan sering
berbeda

Kadang susah untuk © 1995 Corel

dijawab Corp.

14
Quantitatif : Naive Approach

Mengasumsikan
permintan periode
berikutnya sama dengan
periode terakhir
sebelumnya
 Contoh : jika penjualan di
bulan Mei 1000, maka
penjualan di bulan Juni 1000

Terkadang cukup efektif
dan efisien, terutama dari
sudut pandang biaya © 1995 Corel Corp.

15
Quantitative Forecasting Methods
(non naïve)
Quantitative
Forecasting

Time Series Associative

Models Models

Moving Exponential Trend Linear

Average Smoothing Projection Regression

16
What is a Time Series?

Kumpulan data rerata numerik
 Diperoleh dengan mengumpulkan respon dalam
periode tertentu

Peramalan hanya berdasarkan data masa lalu
 Mengasumsikan bahwa faktor2 yang mempengaruhi
masa lalu dan saat ini akan terus berlanjut dimasa
yang akan datang

Contoh
Tahun : 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Penjualan: 78.7 63.5 89.7 93.2 92.1

17
Pola data Time Series

Trend Siklus

Musiman Acak

18
Pola Trend

Terjadi bilamana terdapat kenaikan atau
penurunan sekuler jangka panjang dalam
data

Terjadi pada populasi, teknologi, dsb

Untuk jangka waktu beberapa tahun

Response

Mo., Qtr., Yr. © 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

19
Pola Musiman

terjadi bilamana deret dipengaruhi oleh
faktor musiman, seperti kuartal tahun
tertentu, bulanan, harian pada minggu
tertentu

Contoh : Cuaca, baju.

Terjadi dalam kurun waktu 1 tahun

Summer
Response
© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Mo., Qtr.
20
Pola Siklus

Terjadi bilamana datanya dipengaruhi oleh

fluktuasi ekonomi jangka panjang seperti
yang berhubungan dengan siklus bisnis

Durasi : biasanya 2-10 tahun

Cycle
Response


Mo., Qtr., Yr.
21
Pola Random/Acak

Fluktuasi acak, tidak bisa diprediksi

Contoh : Buruh mogok, Tornado
© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Durasi Pendek dan tidak berulang

22
Moving Average Method

Merupakan bentuk dari rerata aritmatik

Jika data yang ada sedikit dan tidak ada
trend

Rumusnya :

MA = ∑ Permintaan di n periode sebelumnya

n

23
Moving Average Example
Anda adalah manajer dari toko penjual
replika benda museum. Anda ingin
memperkirakan penjualan tahun 2003
(dalam juta rupiah) menggunakan Moving
Average dengan 3 periode :
1998 4
1999 6
2000 5
2001 3
2002 7
© 1995 Corel Corp.

24
Jawaban contoh soal Moving Average

Time Response Moving Moving

Yi Total Average
(n=3) (n=3)
1998 4 NA NA
1999 6 NA NA
2000 5 NA NA
2001 3 4+6+5=15 15/3 = 5
2002 7
2003 NA

25
Jawaban contoh soal Moving Average

Time Response Moving Moving

Yi Total Average
(n=3) (n=3)
1998 4 NA NA
1999 6 NA NA
2000 5 NA NA
2001 3 4+6+5=15 15/3 = 5
2002 7 6+5+3=14 14/3=4 2/3
2003 NA

26
Jawaban contoh soal Moving Average

Time Response Moving Moving

Yi Total Average
(n=3) (n=3)
1998 4 NA NA
1999 6 NA NA
2000 5 NA NA
2001 3 4+6+5=15 15/3=5.0
2002 7 6+5+3=14 14/3=4.7
2003 NA 5+3+7=15 15/3=5.0

27
Permintan Aktual vs Moving Average

35

30
Actual sales
25
Sales Demand

20
15
10
Moving average
5
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month

28
Exponential Smoothing Method

Merupakan pengembangan dari metode Moving Average

Terdapat konstanta penghalus (smoothing constant (α)
 Range dari 0 - 1
 Ditentukan secara subjektif

Menghaluskan data historis untuk mengurangi kerandoman
dengan - menganggap setiap data mempunyai bobot yang
berbeda

Rumusnya :

Ft +1 = α X t + (1 - α ) Ft

29
Exponential Smoothing Equations

Ft = αAt - 1 + α(1-α)At - 2 + α(1- α)2·At - 3

+ α(1- α)3At - 4 + ... + α(1- α)t-1·A0
 Ft = Forecast value
 At = Actual value
 α = Smoothing constant

Ft = Ft-1 + α(At-1 - Ft-1)
 Use for computing forecast

30
Exponential Smoothing Example
Berikut data permintaan untuk 8 periode. Dengan (α = .10), dan
hasil peramalan di periode 1 = 175, perkirakan permintaan di
periode 9 dengan metode eksponential smoothing..
Periode Actual
1 180
2 168
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205
7 180
8 182
9 ?

31
Exponential Smoothing Solution
Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Forecast, F t
Quarter Actual
α = .10
(α .10))
1 180 175.00 (Given)
2 168 175.00 +
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205

32
Exponential Smoothing Solution
Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Forecast, F t
Quarter Actua
Actual
α = .10
(α .10))
1 180 175.00 (Given)
2 168 175.00 + .10
.10((
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205

33
 Exponential Smoothing Solution
Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Forecast, Ft
Quarter Actual
(α = .10
.10))
1 180 175.00 (Given)
2 168 175.00 + .10
.10(180
(180 -
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205

34
Exponential Smoothing Solution
Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Forecast, Ft
Quarter Actual
(α
α = .10
.10))
1 180 175.00 (Given)
2 168 175.00 + .10
.10(180
(180 - 175.00
175.00))
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205

35
Exponential Smoothing Solution
Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Forecast, Ft
Quarter Actual
(α = .10
.10))
1 180 175.00 (Given)
2 168 175.00 + .10
.10(180
(180 - 175.00
175.00)) = 175.50
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205

36
Exponential Smoothing Solution
Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Forecast, F t
Quarter Actual
(α
α = .10
.10))
1 180 175.00 (Given)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
3 159 175.50 + .10
.10(168
(168 - 175.50
175.50)) = 174.75
4 175
5 190
6 205

37
Exponential Smoothing Solution
Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Forecast, F t
Quarter Actual
(α = .10)
1995 180 175.00 (Given)
1996 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
1997 159 175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.75
1998 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75)= 173.18
1999 190
2000 205

38
Exponential Smoothing Solution
Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Forecast, F t
Quarter Actual
(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
3 159 175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.75
4 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.18
5 190 173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.36
6 205

39
Exponential Smoothing Solution
Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Forecast, F t
Quarter Actual
(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
3 159 175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.75
4 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.18
5 190 173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.36
6 205 173.36 + .10(190 - 173.36) = 175.02

40
Exponential Smoothing Solution
Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Forecast, F t
Time Actual
(α = .10)
4 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.18
5 190 173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.36
6 205 173.36 + .10(190 - 173.36) = 175.02
7 180 175.02 + .10(205 - 175.02) = 178.02
8
9

41
Exponential Smoothing Solution
Ft = Ft-1 + 0.1(At-1 - Ft-1)
Forecast, F t
Time Actual
(α = .10)
4 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.18
5 190 173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.36
6 205 173.36 + .10(190 - 173.36) = 175.02
7 180 175.02 + .10(205 - 175.02) = 178.02
8 182 178.02 + .10(180 - 178.02) = 178.22
9 ? 178.22 + .10(182 - 178.22) = 178.58

42
Forecast Effects of
Smoothing Constant α

Ft = α At - 1 + α(1- α)At - 2 + α(1- α)2At - 3 + ...

Weights
α= Prior Period 2 periods ago 3 periods ago
α α(1 - α) α(1 - α)2

α= 0.10 10%
α= 0.90

43
Forecast Effects of
Smoothing Constant α

Ft = α At - 1 + α(1- α) At - 2 + α(1- α)2At - 3 + ...

Weights
α= Prior Period 2 periods ago 3 periods ago
α α(1 - α) α(1 - α)2

α= 0.10 10% 9%
α= 0.90

44
Forecast Effects of
Smoothing Constant α

Ft = α At - 1 + α(1- α)At - 2 + α(1- α)2At - 3 + ...

Weights
α= Prior Period 2 periods ago 3 periods ago
α α(1 - α) α(1 - α)2

α= 0.10 10% 9% 8.1%

α= 0.90

45
Forecast Effects of
Smoothing Constant α

Ft = α At - 1 + α(1- α)At - 2 + α(1- α)2At - 3 + ...

Weights
α= Prior Period 2 periods ago 3 periods ago
α α(1 - α) α(1 - α)2

α= 0.10 10% 9% 8.1%

α= 0.90 90%

46
Forecast Effects of
Smoothing Constant α

Ft = α At - 1 + α(1- α) At - 2 + α(1- α)2At - 3 + ...

Weights
α= Prior Period 2 periods ago 3 periods ago
α α(1 - α) α(1 - α)2

α= 0.10 10% 9% 8.1%

α= 0.90 90% 9%

47
Forecast Effects of
Smoothing Constant α

Ft = α At - 1 + α(1- α) At - 2 + α(1- α)2At - 3 + ...

Weights
α= Prior Period 2 periods ago 3 periods ago
α α(1 - α) α(1 - α)2

α= 0.10
10% 9% 8.1%
α= 0.90
90% 9% 0.9%

48
Impact of α
250

200 Forecast (0.5)

A c tu a l T o n a g e

150 Forecast (0.1)

Actual

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Quarter
49
Regression

50
Least Squares

Actual
observation Deviation
Values of Dependent Variable

Deviation Deviation

Deviation
Deviation
Point on
regression
Deviation
line
Deviation

Yˆ = a + bx
Time
51
Actual and the Least Squares Line
160

140

120
Regression Line
100

Actual Demand
80

60

40

20

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year

52
Linear Trend Projection

Used for forecasting linear trend line

Assumes relationship between response
variable, Y, and time, X, is a linear
function
Yi = a + bX i

Estimated by least squares method

 Minimizes sum of squared errors

53
Computation Table

2 2
Xi Yi Xi Yi X iY i
2 2
X1 Y1 X1 Y1 X 1Y 1
2 2
X2 Y2 X2 Y2 X 2Y 2
: : : : :
2 2
Xn Yn Xn Yn X nY n
2 2
ΣX i ΣYi ΣXi ΣY i ΣX iY i

54
Using a Trend Line
The demand for
Year Demand
electrical power at
1997 74
N.Y.Edison over the
1998 79 years 1997 – 2003 is
1999 80 given at the left. Find
2000 90 the overall trend.
2001 105
2002 142
2003 122

55
Finding a Trend Line
Year Time Power x2 xy
Period Demand
1997 1 74 1 74
1998 2 79 4 158
1999 3 80 9 240
2000 4 90 16 360
2001 5 105 25 525
2002 6 142 36 852
2003 7 122 49 854
Σx=28 Σy=692 Σx2=140 Σxy=3,063

56
The Trend Line Equation
Σx 28 Σy 692
x= = =4 y= = = 98.86
n 7 n 7

Σxy - nxy 3,063 − (7)(4)(98. 86) 295

b= 2 2
= 2
= = 10.54
Σx − nx 140 − (7)(4) 28

a = y - bx = 98.86 - 10.54(4) = 56.70

Demand in 2004 = 56.70 + 10.54(8) = 141.02 megawatts

Demand in 2005 = 56.70 + 10.54(9) = 151.56 megawatts

57
Actual and Trend Forecast
Electric Power Demand

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year

58
Linear Regression Model

Shows linear relationship between

dependent & explanatory variables
 Example: Sales & advertising (not time)

Y-intercept Slope

Y^ i = a + b X i
Dependent Independent (explanatory)
(response) variable variable

59
Linear Regression Model

Y Y i = a + b X i +Error

Error
Regression line

Y^i = a + b X i
X
Observed value

60
Linear Regression Equations

Equation: Ŷi = a +bxi

n
∑ x i y i − nx y
i =1
Slope: b = n
∑ x i2 − n x 2
i =1

Y-Intercept: a = y − bx

61
Computation Table

2 2
Xi Yi Xi Yi X iY i
2 2
X1 Y1 X1 Y1 X 1Y 1
2 2
X2 Y2 X2 Y2 X 2Y 2
: : : : :
2 2
Xn Yn Xn Yn X nY n
2 2
ΣX i ΣYi ΣX i ΣY i ΣX iY i
62
Interpretation of Coefficients

Slope (b)
 Estimated Y changes by b for each 1 unit
increase in X

If b = 2, then sales (Y) is expected to increase by 2
for each 1 unit increase in advertising (X)

Y-intercept (a)
 Average value of Y when X = 0

If a = 4, then average sales (Y) is expected to be 4
when advertising (X) is 0

63
Standard Error of the Estimate
n
2
(
∑ i c
y − y )
i =1
S y, x =
n−2

n n n

∑y i =1
2
i − a∑ yi − b∑ xi yi
i =1 i =1
=
n−2

64
Guidelines for Selecting Forecasting
Model

You want to achieve:
 No pattern or direction in forecast error

Error = (Yi - ^Yi) = (Actual - Forecast)

Seen in plots of errors over time

 Smallest forecast error

Mean square error (MSE)

Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

65
Pattern of Forecast Error

Trend Not Fully

Accounted for Desired Pattern
Error Error

0 0

Time (Years) Time (Years)

66
Forecast Error Equations

Mean Square Error (MSE)
n

∑ (y
i =1
i − ŷ i ) 2
∑ forecast errors
2

MSE = =
n n

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
n

∑| y
i =1
i − yˆ i |
∑ | forecast errors |
MAD = =
n n

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
n actual i − forecast i
∑
i =1 actual i
MAPE = 100
n

67
 Selecting Forecasting Model Example

You’re a marketing analyst for Hasbro Toys. You’ve forecast sales with a
linear model & exponential smoothing. Which model do you use?

Actual Linear Model Exponential

Smoothing
Year Sales Forecast Forecast (.9)

1998 1 0.6 1.0

1999 1 1.3 1.0
2000 2 2.0 1.9
2001 2 2.7 2.0
2002 4 3.4 3.8

68
Linear Model Evaluation
|Error|
Year Yi Y^ i Error Error2 |Error|
Actual
1998 1 0.6 0.4 0.16 0.4 0.40
1999 1 1.3 -0.3 0.09 0.3 0.30
2000 2 2.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00
2001 2 2.7 -0.7 0.49 0.7 0.35
2002 4 3.4 0.6 0.36 0.6 0.15
Total 0.0 1.10 2.0 1.20
MSE = Σ Error2 / n = 1.10 / 5 = 0.220
MAD = Σ |Error| / n = 2.0 / 5 = 0.400
MAPE = 100 Σ|absolute percent errors|/n= 1.20/5 = 0.240
69
Exponential Smoothing Model
Evaluation
|Error|
Year Y Y^ Error Error2 |Error|
i i Actual
1998 1 1.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00
1999 1 1.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00
2000 2 1.9 0.1 0.01 0.1 0.05
2001 2 2.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00
2002 4 3.8 0.2 0.04 0.2 0.05
Total 0.3 0.05 0.3 0.10
MSE = Σ Error2 / n = 0.05 / 5 = 0.01
MAD = Σ |Error| / n = 0.3 / 5 = 0.06
MAPE = 100 Σ |Absolute percent errors|/n = 0.10/5 = 0.02

70
Exponential Smoothing Model
Evaluation
Linear Model:
MSE = Σ Error2 / n = 1.10 / 5 = .220
MAD = Σ |Error| / n = 2.0 / 5 = .400
MAPE = 100 Σ|absolute percent errors|/n= 1.20/5 = 0.240
Exponential Smoothing Model:
MSE = Σ Error2 / n = 0.05 / 5 = 0.01
MAD = Σ |Error| / n = 0.3 / 5 = 0.06
MAPE = 100 Σ |Absolute percent errors|/n = 0.10/5 = 0.02

71
Forecasting in the Service Sector

Presents unusual challenges

 special need for short term records
 needs differ greatly as function of industry and
product
 issues of holidays and calendar
 unusual events

72
Forecast of Sales by Hour for Fast
Food Restaurant
20

15

10

0
+11-12 +1-2 +3-4 +5-6 +7-8 +9-10
11-12 12-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11

73