The Daily Tck

Race to the Future: www.tcktcktck.org

Summary of the Current status/situation

1 October 2011

At the end of the last session in Bonn we said that the job is unfinished and there is a need to continue work. And here we are gathered at the Centro de Convenciones ATLAPA in Panama City as the last round of negotiations before COP17 in Durban kicks off. We do stress negotiations and we do hope the Parties have come to truly negotiate and not simply dig their heels in on stated positions. One big question is what will happen to the Kyoto Protocol, the only international agreement on climate change we have, given that the first commitment period ends next year. Common sense would dictate that we need to keep the law we already have and build out from there. But these are climate negotiations where good sense is not that common. A second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is essential to provide certainty to business (and they can hardly afford more uncertainty) and keep confidence in international governance. However, we know full well that we can only avoid going above 2 degrees of warming if we have a deal that greatly increases the level of emission cuts and that includes all major emitters. After the failure of the climate bill in the U.S. it is clear that the political conditions are not there for an international deal. Weve seen this movie before and we know what to do. The world simply cannot afford to wait for those conditions to change in the U.S. nor should they take their foreign policy cues from the U.S. We need to go on without them, and the US need to both put up and shut up stop undermining other efforts to get a deal. One encouraging sign is that the major emitters outside of the U.S. understand the huge costs of inaction and at the end of the day they need a multilateral solution which must go well beyond a promise or whats called a pledge and review process, it must be in a legally binding form to ensure all Parties a level playing field and to ensure we achieve the needed targets the earth has no wiggle room to negotiate. The second big question is about money. The Green Climate Fund was established in Cancun at COP16, but currently it is empty. We need to find the money to fill the fund. However, a hard discussion on finance is made even more difficult in the current economic conditions, but fortunately there are some innovative sources being supported even by bodies such as The World Bank and IMF who recently reported that a global shipping levy could raise up to $26 billion/year with minimal impact on trade.

What is happening?
Dropping the commitment to a 2nd period of the Kyoto protocol would defy any economic or political logic. Just this week, the EU outlined conditions to agree to a supporting the Protocol. This is in the best economic and political interests of the EU whose markets and corporations will only benefit. A proposal has come from Norway and Australia calling for a new global pact in the future has really only muddied the waters.

We need a deal now not sometime. The 2nd commitment period of the KP should be adopted without reservation; however countries do need to start to discuss a process and timeline for a deal that includes all major emitters while respecting the UNFCCC principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. These negotiations need to begin in earnest now, here in Panama.

Message for the day

It is to the huge economic and political benefit for Europe to support the 2nd commitment of the Kyoto protocol. Other countries, particularly Australia and New Zealand among others, should also add their support which is important, not only from an international perspective but for their own sovereign interests. The U.S. should heed the advice that many of us heard as children if you havent got anything nice to say, dont say anything at all.

What you can do today?

Fill the Fund; support innovative sources of finance in particular a levy on Bunkers. Check out http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bn-out-of-the-bunker-050911en.pdf and support the campaign to fill the fund. If you want to update your supporters on whats going on in Bonn, check out the latest blogs and videos the Adopt-A-Negotiator team has posted on their website (www.adoptanegotiator.org)

Other materials:
Check out CANs expectations for Durban at http://climatenetwork.org/publication/cansdurban-expectations Summaries are available in a range of languages.