Steel Industry Update/265

August 2011

Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007

Tel: 212-962-2980

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, June & Year-to-Date, 2011
Month of June
2011
2010
7,987
7,816

(000 net tons)

Raw Steel Production ...............

% Chg
2.2%

2011
47,054

Year-to-Date
2010
45,038

% Chg
4.4%

Capacity Utilization .................

76.2

75.4

--

74.4

72.1

--

Mill Shipments ..........................

7,639

7,292

4.8%

44,780

42,233

6.0%

Exports .....................................

1,095

1,048

4.5%

6,408

6,222

3.0%

Total Imports.............................

2,706

2,035

33.0%

14,645

11,706

25.1%

Finished Steel Imports ............

2,145

1,563

37.2%

11,092

9,189

20.7%

Apparent Steel Supply*.............

8,689

7,807

11.3%

49,464

45,200

9.4%

Imports as % of Supply* .........

24.7

20.0

--

22.4

20.3

--

Average Spot Price** ($/ton) ......

$898

$735

22.2%

$917

$720

27.3%

Scrap Price# ($/gross ton) ..........

$440

$317

38.8%

$440

$346

27.3%

Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker

*Excl semi-finished imports

**Avg price of 4 carbon products

#shredded

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Steel Products, August & Year-to-Date, 2011
($ per net ton)

Hot Rolled Band....

Cold Rolled Coil.......
Coiled Plate..................

Month of August
2011
2010
% Chg
664
581
14.3%
778
690
12.8%
1,021
775
31.7%

Average Spot Price....

821

682

OCTG.

1,963

#1 Heavy Melt...
Scrap Steel-Shredded.
#1 Busheling.

406
436
481

2011
794
889
1,011

Year-to-Date
2010
631
737
766

% Chg
25.8%
20.6%
32.0%

20.4%

898

711

1,823

7.7%

1,859

1,716

8.4%

311
345
399

30.5%
26.4%
20.6%

404
440
475

310
341
413

30.4%
29.0%
14.9%

Sources: World Steel Dynamics SteelBenchmarker, Spears Research; OCTG data is July, 2011

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26.2%

Steel Industry Update/265

Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, July & Year-to-Date, 2011
Month of June
Year-to-Date
(000 metric tons)
Region
2011
2010
% Chg
2011
2010
European Union.
14,579
13,763
5.9%
108,008
103,509
Other Europe.
3,068
2,595
18.2%
21,167
17,471
8,617

9.7%

66,106

62,035

% Chg
4.3%
21.2%

C.I.S.

9,450

6.6%

North America

10,540

9,486

11.1%

69,858

65,672

6.4%

South America...

4,297

3,835

12.0%

28,746

25,071

14.7%

Africa...

1,207

1,303

-7.3%

8,168

9,684

-15.7%

Middle East.

1,587

1,297

22.3%

11,943

10,880

9.8%

Asia..

82,187

72,738

13.0%

568,329

520,176

9.3%

Oceania......

561

736

-23.8%

4,569

4,710

-3.0%

Total

127,477

114,372

11.5%

886,893

819,209

8.3%

China.......
Japan...

59,300
9,108

51,348
9,223

15.5%
-1.2%

410,364
63,180

372,060
63,800

10.3%
-1.0%

United States..

7,457

6,764

10.2%

50,143

47,662

5.2%

India(e).

6,160

5,794

6.3%

41,796

39,788

5.0%

Country

Russia(e).

5,950

5,505

8.1%

40,692

38,357

6.1%

South Korea....

5,659

4,649

21.7%

39,525

33,236

18.9%

Germany..

3,669

3,472

5.7%

26,865

26,217

2.5%

Brazil..

3,121

2,885

8.2%

20,948

19,264

8.7%

Turkey..

2,858

2,396

19.3%

19,262

15,917

21.0%

Ukraine(e)....

2,730

2,476

10.3%

20,432

19,158

6.6%

All Others....

24,195

22,336

8.3%

174,118

162,908

6.9%

Source: World Steel Association, 8/11; e=estimate

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production

Source: World Steel Association, 8/11; in million metric tons

-2-

Steel Industry Update/265

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization Ratio

Source: World Steel Association, 8/11; in million metric tons

Table 4: Worlds Total Metallics for Steelmaking, 2006-2010

Crude Steel Production
of which Oxygen (BOF)
Electric (EAF)
(Share EAF of Crude Steel) in %

2006
1,247
820
395
31.7

2007
1,347
901
416
30.9

2008
1,327
890
409
30.8

2009
1,230
863
342
27.8

2010
1,412
988
405
28.7

% Chg
14.8%
14.5%
18.5%

Pig Iron
(Ratio Pig Iron/Crude Steel) in %

880
70.6

961
71.4

935
70.4

914
74.4

1,028
72.8

12.5%

Steel Scrap
(Ratio Steel Scrap/Crude Steel) in %

500
40.1

540
40.1

530
39.9

460
37.6

530
37.5

15.2%

60
4.8

67
5.0

68
5.1

64
5.1

65
4.6

1.6%

1,440
115.5

1,568
116.5

1,533
115.4

1,438
116.9

1,623
114.9

12.9%

(in million tonnes)

DRI
(Ratio DRI/Crude Steel) in %
Total Metallics
(Ratio Total Metallics/Crude Steel) in %

Source: Bureau of Intl Recyclings World Steel Recycling Report, August, 2011; % Chg is 2010-2009

Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright 2011 by Locker Associates, Inc. All
rights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.

-3-

Steel Industry Update/265

Table 5: Worlds Top Steel Scrap Importers, 2006-2010

2006
2007
2008
(in 000 tonnes)
Turkey
15,100
17,141
17,415
South Korea
5,621
6,887
7,319
China
5,386
3,395
3,590
India
3,359
3,041
4,579
Taiwan
4,459
5,418
5,539
EU
7,294
5,142
4,809
USA
4,814
3,692
3,571
Canada
1,476
1,435
1,674
Malaysia
2,941
3,688
2,293
Indonesia
1,063
1,260
1,899
Thailand
1,373
1,805
3,142

2009
15,665
7,800
13,692
5,336
3,912
3,270
2,986
1,408
1,683
1,484
1,323

2010
19,194
8,091
5,848
3,211*
5,364
3,629
3,773
2,227
2,292
1,642
1,282

% Chg
22.5%
3.7%
-57.3%
-24.6%
37.1%
9.7%
26.4%
58.1%
36.2%
10.6%
-3.1%

Source: Bureau of Intl Recyclings World Steel Recycling Report, August, 2011; *Jan-Sep 2010

Table 6: Worlds Top Steel Scrap Exporters, 2006-2010

(in 000 tonnes)

USA
EU
Japan
Canada
Russia
Australia
South Africa

2006
13,978
10,083
7,654
4,000
9,797
1,335
555

2007
16,642
10,566
6,449
4,100
7,855
1,501
752

2008
21,712
12,799
5,344
4,084
5,128
1,708
1,271

2009
22,439
15,779
9,398
4,792
1,202
1,925
1,144

2010
20,557
18,970
6,472
5,154
2,390
1,636
1,225

% Chg
-8.4%
20.2%
-31.1%
7.6%
98.9%
-15.0%
7.0%

Source: World Steel Recycling Report, Bureau of International Recycling, August, 2011

Table 7: US Exports of Ferrous Scrap by Destination, June 2011

(in 000 tonnes)

Country
Canada
China
Hong Kong
India
Japan
Malaysia
Mexico
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
Others
Totals

June 11
109
336
9
129
11
116
54
190
258
5
739
356
2,313

Month
May 11
148
362
10
140
86
72
22
337
323
75
660
346
2,580

April 11
149
427
13
81
11
176
30
445
312
119
361
130
2,254

Source: American Metal Market, 8/16/11

-4-

2011
806
2,078
64
458
163
586
297
1,672
1,597
445
2,683
1,317
12,166

Year-to-Date
2010
717
1,544
47
493
94
587
366
1,720
1,139
246
1,696
994
9,643

% Chg
12.5%
34.6%
35.6%
-7.2%
74.2%
-0.1%
-18.8%
-2.8%
40.2%
80.7%
58.2%
32.4%
26.2%

Steel Industry Update/265

Table 8: Steel Dynamics Long Product Shipments, 2Q 2011

(in tons)

Structural and rail

Special-bar quality
Roanoke
Steel of West Virginia
Total

2Q11
213,368
144,280
152,906
74,882
585,436

2Q10
159,252
128,802
109,393
52,720
450,167

% Chg
1H11
34.0%
404,029
12.0%
303,295
39.8%
274,211
42.0%
146,938
30.0% 1,128,473

11H10
314,601
253,861
218,579
106,125
893,166

% Chg
28.4%
19.5%
25.5%
38.5%
26.3%

1H11
0.88
4.42
5.30
1.84
5.68
7.52

11H10
0.89
4.23
5.12
1.82
5.32
7.14

% Chg
-2%
4%
3%
1%
7%
5%

Q2 '10
20,154
2,809
1,603
127
1,706
1.13
12.8
6.9
24.3
22.3
126

H1 '11
47,310
5,995
3,683
461
2,604
1.68
24.9
12.9
47.9
44.1
136

Source: AMM 7/20/11

Table 9: Severstal Production of Hot Metal and Crude Steel, 2Q 2011

(in million tonnes)

North America
Russian Steel
Total Hot Metal
North America
Russian Steel
Total Crude Steel

2Q11
0.45
2.21
2.66
0.92
2.95
3.87

2Q10
0.43
2.20
2.64
0.91
2.74
3.65

% Chg
4%
0%
1%
1%
8%
6%

Source: AMM 7/20/11

Table 10: ArcelorMittal Financial Results, 2Q 2011

Item
Q2 '11
Q1 '11
Sales
25,126
22,184
EBITDA
3,413
2,582
Operating income
2,252
1,431
Income from discontinued operations
461
Net income
1,535
1,069
Basic EPS (USD)
0.99
0.69
Own iron ore production (Mt)
13.1
11.8
Iron ore shipment (Mt)
7
5.9
Crude steel output (Mt)
24.4
23.5
Steel shipments (Mt)
22.2
22
EBITDA/tonne (USD/t)
154
118
Source: Steel Guru, 7/28/11

-5-

H1 '10
37,582
4,510
2,180
179
2,346
1.55
23.4
12.3
46.8
43.3
104

Steel Industry Update/265

Locker Associates Steel Track: Spot Prices

U.S. Flat-Rolled Prices

U.S. Scrap Prices

($ per ton)

($ per ton)

500

1100

#1 Busheling

Plate
1000

450

900
400

#1 Heavy Melt
800

Shredded Scrap
350

Rebar
CR Coil

700

300

600

HR Band
250

500

200

400
'06 '07 '08 '09 1q 2q J

S O N D

F M A M

'07 '08 '09 1q 2q

Locker Associates Steel Track: Performance

U.S. Raw Steel Production

10.0

(mil net tons)

9.0

2011

80%

7.0

70%

6.0

60%

5.0

50%

4.0

40%

2010

90%

8.0

3.0

U.S. Capacity Utilization

100%

2011
2010

30%

2011 7.9 7.4 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.0

2011 73% 75% 75% 74% 73% 76%

2010 6.9 6.9 7.8 7.7 8.0 7.8

2010 64% 71% 73% 74% 75% 75%

Steel Mill Products: US Imports, June & Year-to-Date

Imports: Country of Origin
(000 net tons)

Canada..
Mexico
Other W. Hemisphere..
European Union
Other Europe*..
Asia.
Oceania.
Africa..
Total
Imports: Customs District
Atlantic Coast
Gulf Coast/Mexican Border
Pacific Coast.
Gr Lakes/Canadian Border.
Off Shore

Month of June
2011
2010
% Chg
526
527
-0.2%
211
253
-16.6%
268
190
41.1%
371
341
8.8%
368
201
83.1%
848
451
88.0%
86
56
53.6%
92.9%
27
14
2,705
2,035
32.9%
312
1,235
471
679
8

231
646
487
662
8

Source: AISI; *includes Russia

Update
- 6 -#265

35.1%
91.2%
-3.3%
2.6%
0.0%

2011
3,108
1,615
1,519
2,201
1,499
4,075
533
96
14,645
1,874
6,238
2,831
3,597
105

Year-to-Date
2010
3,521
1,535
546
2,018
1,047
2,641
349
49
11,706
1,631
3,776
2,201
3,994
104

% Chg
-11.7%
5.2%
178.25
9.1%
43.2%
54.3%
52.7%
95.9%
25.1%
14.9%
65.2%
28.6%
-9.9%
1.0%

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