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Working Paper Only David McMinn Helpful comments from the readership most appreciated Over recent centuries, major US and Western European financial crises have fallen preferentially in patterns based on multiples of 9 and 56 years. This panic cycle has been covered extensively in Financial Crises & The Number 56, while The Sun, The Moon & The Number 56 discusses the links between the 56 year cycle and Moon - Sun cycles. These luminaries are believed to influence cycles of human mass psychology, which in turn showed up in financial trends. Periods of widespread euphoria see a rising market and periods of mass pessimism produce a falling market. The dramatic crisis phase occurs when there is a sudden shift in sentiment from greed to fear. Evidence for a strong Moon - Sun influence in financial activity has been firmly established in papers presented on this web site. There are also several market forecasting techniques which use Fibonacci numbers to predict market trends. Thus, it may be reasonably hypothesised that there is some connection between Fibonacci - Lucas numbers, lunisolar cycles and market patterns. This paper attempts to assess such speculations. Some background information needs to be covered for those not familiar with various concepts discussed in this paper. Firstly, the Fibonacci numbers arise from adding two previous numbers in the series commencing with 1, 1 as follows: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233...... Secondly, the ratio of any two successive Fibonacci numbers is alternately greater or less than 1.618, as follows - 1/1 give 1.000; 2/1 - 2.000; 3/2 1.500; 5/3 - 1.667; 13/8 - 1.625; 21/13 - 1.619; 55/34 - 1.618 and so forth. This is the golden ratio or Phi of 1.618. It is found throughout nature and is believed by some sources to be evident in market activity. Thirdly, Lucas numbers are similar to the Fibonacci numbers but instead of commencing with 1, 1, they begin with 1, 3 producing the series 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 18, 29, 47,76, 123............ Each Lucas number can be derived by adding two Fibonacci numbers, as follows: 3=1+2 4=1+3 7= 2+5 11 = 3 + 8 18 = 5 + 13 29 = 8 + 21 47 = 13 + 34 76 = 21 + 55 For the larger numbers in the series, each Lucas number is equal to Phin.

n= 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

As for any series in which each number is the sum of the previous two, the ratio of any two successive numbers in the series will ever more closely equal 1.618 or Phi. This is a property of numbers generally and not only applicable to the Fibonacci and Lucas series. A glossary has been given to assist those not familiar with the numerous technical terms used in this paper, especially in relation to cycles of the Moon and Sun. For detailed information on eclipse cycles, please refer to Robert van Gent.

FIBONACCI & LUCAS NUMBERS IN MOON - SUN CYCLES Tropical Years. In Appendix 1, integral numbers of tropical years have been converted into equivalent synodic months and tropical months. The numbers presented in BOLD give the synodic months and tropical months which closely approximate to integral numbers minus 0.1 or plus 0.102. Clearly, a 3, 5, 3, 8 year cycle (all Fibonacci numbers) can be delineated, which continues to repeat every 19 years throughout the cycle. This series contains the well known Moon - Sun cycles of the 8 year Octaeteris, the 19 year Metonic and the 76 year Calippic. The basis of this cycle is that the same relative angle between the Moon and Sun (lunar phase) is repeated on a similar date. Thus, if a new Moon falls on April 8, then in 3, 5, 3, 8, 19, 76 years a full Moon will occur around that date within plus or minus a few days. For example: Sun Eo(a) 018 019 016 020 018 020 016 021 018

Add

Year 1902

SpEqNM April 8 April 9 April 6 April 11 April 8 April 9 April 6 April 11 April 7

+8 +3 +5 +3 +8 +3 +5 +3

(a) Ecliptical position of the new Moon. Abbreviation: SpEqNM - The spring equinox new Moon is the first new Moon after spring equinox.

No market cycles are known to correspond with this 3, 5, 3, 8 year cycle and thus it may be a research dead end. Within this 3, 5, 3, 8 years cycle is another sequence of numbers. Commencing with 3, 8 tropical years (both Fibonacci numbers), a series is produced in which each number is the sum of the previous two. As to be expected, the ratios of the larger numbers in this series align closely with Phi (1.618). This series holds well up to about 79 tropical years, but for larger numbers the cycle fades out.

Named Cycle

Tropical Years 3

Synodic Months 37.1048 98.946 136.051 234.997 371.048 606.045 977.093 1583.138 2560.230 4143.368

Tropical Months 40.1048 106.946 147.051 253.997 401.048 655.045 1056.092 1711.137 2767.229 4478.366

Octaeteris

8 11

Metonic

A much better outcome is achieved by starting with synodic months 37 (about three tropical years) and 99 (about 8 tropical years) to give the following series. The close alignment of tropical years and tropical months to integral numbers is maintained over hundreds of years.

Named Cycle

Synodic Months 37

3, 8, 11, Series 3 8 11 19 30

Octaeteris

99 136

Metonic

235 371

Again the same lunar phase is repeated around the same date throughout the series (ie near the same ecliptical degree) and the ratio of the larger numbers give Phi. However, such patterns ignore the lunar nodes, which are a key factor in market activity. Nodical Years. In Appendix 2, integral numbers of nodical years are converted to equivalent synodic months and nodical months. The numbers presented in BOLD are synodic months and tropical months in integral numbers minus 0.1 or plus 0.105. As can bee seen, there is a 4, 4, 7, 4 cycle which repeats every 19 nodical years up to 57 nodical years. Then there is a cycle of 4, 4, 11, 4 nodical years to 80 nodical years after which there is series involving both 4, 4, 7, 4 and 4, 4, 11, 4 cycles. The numbers comprising this series - 4, 7, 11 - are all Lucas numbers, although why they are constructed in such a complex manner is unknown. Cumulative Total 19 38 57 80 99 118 141 160 179 202 221 240 Triple Short Calippic Double Short Calippic

Total 19 19 19 23 19 19 23 19 19 23 19 19

Eclipse Cycle Saros Double Saros Triple Saros Short Calippic (a) Double 47 Year Cycle Unnamed Double 56 Year Cycle Unnamed

(a) One Calippic is equal to 76.0 tropical years (940 synodic months) and is equivalent to four Metonic cycles of 19 tropical years each. The Short Calippic falls in eclipse cycles and is equal to the Calippic minus one synodic month (939 synodic months).

The basic time units in this cycle can be firmly linked to eclipse cycles. Total Nodical Years 19 23 42 61 80

Eclipse Cycle One Saros Double Tritos 40 Year Cycle (Unnamed) Double Inex One Short Calippic

Tropical Years 18 22 40 58 76

A common link between the tropical series and the nodical series is the number 19. 19 tropical years gives the Metonic cycle (235 synodic months) and 19 nodical years gives the Saros eclipse cycle (223 synodic months). The interval between these two cycles is 12 synodic months or one lunar year. Commencing with 1, 7 nodical years (both Lucas numbers), another series may be produced in which each number is the sum of the previous two. This gives a series in which the nodical months are all in integral numbers and is various double eclipse cycles. Again the ratio of the numbers in

Named Eclipse Cycle Lunar Year Double Hepton Double Octon Double Tzolkinex Double Tritos Double Saros Double Inex Double 47 Year Cycle Double Short Calippic

Nodical Months 12.738 89.164 101.901 191.065 292.967 484.031 776.998 1261.029 2038.027

A much better effect is achieved by starting with synodic months 6 (about 0.5 tropical years) and 41 (about 3 tropical years) to give the following series. The close alignment of nodical years and nodical months at integral and half integral numbers persists over the very long term. The equivalent tropical years in this series increasingly approximate to the Lucas numbers.

Named Cycle Half Lunar Year (a) Hepton Octon Tzolkinex Tritos Saros Inex 47 Year Cycle Unnamed Short Calippic Half 246 Year Cycle Unnamed

Nodical Years 0.511 3.493 4.004 7.497 11.501 18.998 30.499 50.497 80.996

Nodical Months 6.511 44.493 51.004 95.497 146.501 241.998 630.499 872.497 1502.996 1744.493

Tropical Years 0.485 3.315 3.800 7.115 10.915 18.030 28.945 46.975 75.920 129.895

Tropical Months 6.485 44.315 50.800 95.115 145.915 241.030 386.945 627.975 1014.920 1643.895

131.493

Van den Bergh (1955) found that the interval between two solar (or lunar) eclipses can be established from the simple formula: T = a.Inex + b.Saros where T is the interval between successive eclipses in numbers of synodic months. Saros is equal to 223 synodic months. Inex is equal to 358 synodic months. a and b are integral numbers (zero, negative or positive). The series, commencing with the synodic months 6 and 41, is composed in cycles based on the Inex and Saros cycles in patterns of the Fibonacci numbers. For the numbers less than 88 synodic months, the Saros or Inex may be positive or negative, for numbers greater than 88 the numbers are always positive. This links the Fibonacci numbers with eclipse cycles based on integral numbers of Saros and Inex cycles.

Synodic Months 6 41 47 88 135 223 358 581 939 1520 1878 2459 2817

Eclipse Cycle Half Lunar Year Hepton Octon Tzolkinex Tritos Saros Inex 47 Year Cycle Short Callippic 123 Year Cycle 199 Year Cycle 322 Year Cycle 521 Year Cycle

Inex 5 -3 2 -1 1 0 1 1 2 3 5 8 13

Saros -8 5 -3 2 -1 1 0 1 1 2 3 5 8

Source of Data on the Inex and Saros cycles: Robert van Gent.

The reason for this link between the Fibonaccis, the Saros and the Inex may possibly have something to do with terrestrial latitude and longitude. In the Saros, a similar solar eclipse is repeated about 120o further west in terrestrial longitude every 18 tropical years and 19 nodical years. In the Inex, a similar solar eclipse is repeated at the same terrestrial longitude, but in the opposite latitude (ie: north to south or south to north) every 29 tropical years. Alex Harvey & Eclipse Lucas Numbers Using a different, more complex approach, Alex Harvey also noted the importance of Lucas numbers in lunar eclipse cycles. He listed "the peak lunar eclipse in a concurrent or overlapping set of Saros sequences". (The peak lunar eclipse occurs when the cone of the Earth's shadow aligns most closely with the centre of the lunar disc. This rarely takes place during the middle eclipse of a particular Saros sequence.) Harvey then noted the intervals between the calendar years in which the successive peak eclipses happened when the Moon was near the north node. The same approach was also adopted for the south node. For Saros numbers 96 to 130, the earliest peak eclipse was in 1027 and the last will be in 2029. The summary of intervals between years of successive north node and south node lunar eclipse peaks is presented in Table 3:

PEAK LUNAR ECLIPSE CYCLES & THE LUCAS NUMBERS Interval - Years (a) 112 94 76 65 47 29 11 7 4 Short Calippic Unidos (unnamed) Inex Tritos Tzolkinex Hexon Eclipse Cycle Double 56 Yr Cycle Number of Times 3 5 6 3 3 10 1 1 1 47 + 18 = 65 (b) Harvey 76 + 2X18 = 112 76 + 18 = 94 McMinn (2002B) 2 X 56 2 X 47 (b) 2 X 38 (b)

(a) This is the interval between calendar years in which peak lunar eclipses occur. (b) These 38 and 47 year cycles show up in artifact sub-cycles associated with the 56 year cycle (see Section 2.4, McMinn, 2002B). According to Harvey, "the only non-Lucas numbers are sums of Lucas numbers plus multiples of 18: 47 + 18 = 65, 76 + 18 = 94, 76 + 2*18 = 112.

Note that 47 and 76 are the first two Lucas numbers differing by more than 18 and that 76 and 123 are the first differing by more than 36". Curiously, the 18 year Saros does not show up in the intervals between peak lunar eclipses and is not listed in Table 3. This seems strange as it is the most famous eclipse cycle in astronomical literature. Some of the numbers multiplied by 2 give key cycles associated with the 56 year panic cycle - 112 = 2 X 56; 94 = 2 X 47; 38 X 2 = 76 . The numbers 47, 56 and 76 are exceedingly important in the 56 year cycle.

Market Forecasting Techniques Various techniques use Moon - Sun cycles to predict the markets - with varying degrees of success. The common factor in the Spiral Calendar and Delta was the lunar year of 12 synodic months. The Delta Phenomenon is claimed to have market predictability based on lunisolar cycles. According to this theory, markets repeat themselves directly or inversely. They either behave in a very similar fashion form one period to another or they invert to a totally opposite pattern. Five Moon Sun cycles form part of the Delta market forecasting technique. * * * * * The four day period - four revolutions of the earth on its axis. Four synodic months - intermediate term - four orbits of the Moon around the Earth. 12 synodic months or one lunar year - medium term - 12 cycles new Moon to new Moon. Four tropical years (super long term - four orbits of the Earth around the Sun). This is equivalent to half an Octaeteris cycle. 19 tropical years (super long term - 19 orbits of the Earth around the Sun). This is equivalent to one Metonic cycle.

The Half Octaeteris and 19 year Metonic cycles may offer clues to unravelling the Delta mystery. Similarly, a possible 3, 5, 3, 8 year cycle could have relevance to the Delta theory, although no evidence can be offered to support such a proposition and it is pure conjecture. A commentary on the accuracy of the Delta Phenomenon cannot be given. The Spiral Calendar was discovered by Chris Carolan, who published a book of that title in 1992. In this approach, extremes in market sentiment repeat in time according to the formula: Sqrt Phi to the power N multiplied by Lunar Year where: Phi = 1.618034 and square root Phi = 1.272 N is an integral number One lunar year = 12 synodic months of 29.5306 days each = 354.37 days This equation yields the following time periods in solar days: 1.272 n X 354.37 N=1 451 N=2 573 N=3 729 N=4 923 N=5 1180 N=6 1501 N=7 1909 N=8 2429 N=9 3089 N = 10 3929 and so forth Carolan's formula may be linked to the Lucas numbers found in eclipse cycles as Sqrt Phin gives a Lucas number when n is an even integral number. This and the lunar year of 12 synodic months may be strongly linked to eclipse cycles. Human Lunar Physiology There is some evidence that both human and animal physiological cycles do alter in accordance with the lunar month. Jackson (1960) published the results of a four year study of surgical patients at the Tallahasee Memorial Hospital (Florida). Over 1000 tonsillectomy patients were assessed in relation to excessive bleeding and lunar phase. He found an amazing association of the full Moon and the increased incidence of bleeding. Some 82 % of such bleeding episodes took place between the Moons first quarter and one day before the third quarter, despite the fact that people admitted for surgery in fact declined around each full Moon. Thus, the true proportion of the patient population affected by adverse bleeding events was actually higher. In 1975, Rounds (1975) of the Wichita State University (Kansas) found that near the full and new Moons, the blood of men, mice and male cockroaches contained greater amounts of certain substances that increased the heart rate. These chemicals peaked two days after the full Moon and three days after the new moon. He concluded that The data...leave little alternative to the hypothesis that there is some sort of a direct or indirect relationship between lunar movements and the blood chemistry of cockroaches, mice and men.

Cutler et al (1987) demonstrated that women who have a regular menstrual cycle of 29.5 days (+ or - one day) tended to commence menstruation with the onset of full moon, with a least likelihood of menses around the new Moon. Additionally, women with a regular 29.5 day menstrual cycle are most likely to have fertile cycles. These findings were based on four sets of data from different years and seasons. Women whose cycles deviate most from the 29.5 day average have a proportionately lower incidence of fertile cycles and their menses did not correlate with the synodic month. According to Cutler et al, In 1979, we reported that although previous investigators had failed to find a relationship between menses onset and the lunar cycle, their failure derived from the inappropriateness to the methods employed. By selecting the subpopulation of women (approximately 30%) who cycle as often as the moon does, i.e. 29.5+1 day, a significant pattern was revealed. There was an increased likelihood of menstruation onset in the light half of the lunar month. Nautilis Shells Curiously, the shell of the nautilus shows a strong connection between Moon Sun cycles and the Fibonacci numbers. This animal lives in a spiral shell that radiates out from the centre in accordance with the Fibonacci numbers and the golden ratio of 1.618. As it grows, it secretes a new lamination (a growth ring) each solar day and progressively grows into the new outermost chamber. As this process is occurring, it also seals off the old chamber with walled partition called a septum. For present-day nautili, there is an average of 29 or 30 fine laminations per chamber, which is linked to the 29.5 day synodic month. Thus, the secretion of each lamination is linked to the solar day and the formation of the septa is tied to the 29.5 day synodic month. The curious factor is how the nautilus is able to grow its shell in harmony with the Fibonacci numbers and phi. What biocycles are these species able to tap into to produce such shapes? Clearly, it must have something to do with Moon Sun cycles, as a new chamber/septa grows each synodic month and a new lamination is laid down each solar day. Kahn & Pompea (1978) established that the ratio of laminations per chamber shows an almost linear decrease over geological time the older the species, the fewer laminations are evident. About 420 million years ago, there were only 9 or 10 laminations per chamber, indicating that the synodic month would have been only 9 or 10 days long. Some 170 and 25 million years ago, the number of laminations per chamber was 17 and 25 respectively, while for modern day species it is about 30. The increase in the number of days of the synodic month is probably due to the tidal drag of the oceans on the Earths surface. This has the effect of slowing the Earths rotation and thereby causing the Moon to move further away from the Earth over the eons. The time span of the synodic month is related to the Earth - Moon distance. Some 420 millions ago, this distance was much less (about 165,000 km) than it is today (about 490,000 km) (Greding, 1995). Conclusions Clearly, Fibonacci and Lucas numbers do show up in Moon - Sun cycles, as does the Phi ratio. If this finding can be further substantiated, it would, in turn, provide theoretical support for the use of Fibonacci numbers in financial forecasting. This would involve a number of techniques including the 56 year cycle, the Delta Phenomenon, the Spiral Calendar and possibly the Elliott Wave. It would also foster the design of much needed follow up research. The conclusions derived from this paper are very preliminary and further work is needed to either prove or negate the Fibonacci - Lucas hypothesis. Even if links between Moon - Sun cycles and the Fibonacci-Lucas numbers can be proven convincingly, they still may not offer much in reliable forecasting of market trends. The next research hurdle is to gain insights into how human psychological cycles function in relation to such Moon Sun cycles. Over millions of years, Homo sapiens presumably have evolved physiological responses to these cycles, which are unique to the species. Nothing is known about this topic as it is completely beyond current science. Even so, Moon - Sun cycles are believed to influence mass human physiology, which in turn induce cyclic changes in mass human emotions between optimism and fear thereby driving financial market cycles. This view can explain how millions of investors react in the same erratic manner at the same time, a factor most evident during the all too frequent manias and panics of the capitalist system. Proving firm links between lunisolar cycles, Fibonacci/Lucas numbers, Phi, human physiology and financial markets remains to be achieved. Even so, such an interconnection remains a valid hypothesis and may potentially be crucial in understanding how various observed financial phenomena are activated.

References Andrews, Edson. Moon Talk: The Cyclic Periodicity of Postoperative Hemorrhage. Journal of the Florida Medical Association. 1960. 46 (11), 1366. Cutler, W B et al. Lunar Influences on The Reproductive Cycle in Women. Human Biology. December 1987. Vol 59. Number 6. Greding Jr, Edward. Journey into Deep Time. Astronomy, March, 1995, pp 16-18. Harvey, Alex. http://mathforum.org/discuss/sci.math/a/m/244513/244515 Kahn, Peter & Pompea, Stephen. Nautiloid Growth Rhythms and Dynamical Evolution of the Earth Moon System. Nature. 1978. 275 (5681). 606. Rounds, Harry. A Lunar Rhythm in the Occurrence of Blood-Borne Factors in Cockroaches, Mice & Men. Comparative Biochemistry & Physiology. 1975. 50-C, 194. Van den Bergh, G. Periodicity and Variation of Solar (and Lunar) Eclipses. H D Tjeenk, Willink & Zoon. 1955.

Subject: Re: Lunar eclipses and Lucas numbers Author: Axel Harvey <axe@cam.org Date Posted: Dec 7 1999 5:45:32:000PM

Probably I underestimated the variability of the number of eclipses in a Saros. It may be more like 50 to 80 than the "71 to 73" mentioned hereunder. Going through several Saros sequences requires picking through a lot of files. Still no idea why Lucas numbers turn up here? On Mon, 6 Dec 1999, Axel Harvey wrote: List the peak lunar eclipses in a concurrent or overlapping set of Saros sequences: the peak eclipse is the one in which the axis of the Earth's shadow cone passes closest to the Moon's centre, and is not necessarly the middle eclipse of the sequence (in fact it very rarely is). Then note the intervals between the calendar years in which successive peak eclipses occur when the Moon is near its ascending node; and between years in which successive peak eclipses occur when the Moon is near its descending node. For Saros numbers 96 through 130 the earliest peak eclipse was in 1027 and the latest will be in 2029. The tally of intervals between years of successive "ascending" or successive "descending" peaks is as follows:

112 years occurs 3 times 94 " 5 " 76 " 6 " 65 " 3 " 47 " 3 " 29 " 10 " 11 " 1 time 7 " 1 " 4 " 1 ".

FYI, Lucas numbers (1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 18, 47, 76, 123... where L_[n+1] = L_n + L_[n-1] ) become increasingly close to the nth power of the Golden Number as n increases. In the table of eclipse intervals, the only non-Lucas numbers are sums of Lucas numbers plus multiples of 18:-- 47 + 18 = 65, 76 + 18 = 94, 76 + 2*18 = 112. Note that 47 and 76 are the first two Lucas numbers differing by more than 18, and that 76 and 123 are the first differing by more than 36. Is there a way of explaining the likelihood of this phenomenon, given that successive eclipses in a Saros sequence are 18.03 years apart, a sequence (as used by Fred Espenak in the catalog referenced below) may contain some 71 to 73 eclipses, and peak eclipses cluster around the middle eclipses of their respective sequences? (Tallies provided by astrologer colleagues and verified with data from

sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse/LEcat/LEcatalog.html .)

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