KILLING AL-AWLAKI RAISES OBAMAS APPROVAL ON TERRORISM EIGHT POINTS

Last week, a U.S. drone strike in Yemen killed Anwar al-Awlaki, the Englishspeaking imam linked to several attempted terrorist attacks on the United States. Al-Awlaki was an American citizen, but that doesnt bother many respondents in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll. Asked whether the military should try to kill U.S. citizens suspected of being terrorists, or arrest them to be tried in civilian courts, 43% would have the suspect targeted; 36% would give the American suspect the Constitutional right to trial.

Should terror suspects who are U.S. citizens be deliberately killed by U.S. military forces or should they be granted the constitutional right given to U.S. citizens to be tried in a court of law?
43% 36%

21%

Should be targeted for killing

Should be tried in a court of law

Not sure

Majorities of Republicans, conservatives, and those over 65 years old believe terror suspects should be killed, even if they are U.S. citizens. Men favor killing such suspects 51% to 32%, women divide 36% in favor and 39% opposed. As they did a year ago, Americans think any U.S. citizens captured as terror suspects should be treated as enemy combatants, not given the rights of U.S. citizens. Since Al-Awlakis death, the Presidents approval rating for handling terrorism has risen, just as it did after the killing of Osama bin Laden in May. In this poll, 52% approve of the way President Obama is handling terrorism, up eight points from last
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week. And though only 36% of Republicans approve of the Presidents handling of terrorism, that is the highest rating Barack Obama gets from them on any issue.

President Obama's Performance on Terrorism

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the issue of terrorism?"

70 Approve: 52%

Percent of Respondents

60

50

40
q

30 Disapprove: 37% 20 2009 2010 2011

Approval of the Presidents handling of terrorism rose 15 points after the killing of Osama bin Laden. However, ten years after the start of the war in Afghanistan, which began in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the public is not as positive about the Presidents performance managing that concern. Just 36% this week approve of how the President is handling the war in Afghanistan, and half disapprove. Approval for handling the war in Afghanistan has not changed signicantly in the last week.

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President Obama's Performance on the War in Afghanistan

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the war in Afghanistan?"

60 Disapprove: 50% Percent of Respondents

50

40
q

30

Approve: 36%

20 2009 2010 2011

DESPITE AL-AWLAKIS DEATH, 64% STILL SEE AL-QAEDA AS A SERIOUS THREAT

Although nearly half of those in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll say the country is safer now than in 2001, 64% still believe Al-Qaeda is a serious threat to the country. And just about half say that a terrorist attack in the next 12 month is at least somewhat likely. But the public is not as fearful today as it was in the week following the killing of Osama bin Laden. Then just about two-thirds of the public said they thought a terrorist attack was likely.

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What do you think are the chances of a terrorist attack against the United States in the next 12 months?
Very likely (more than 50%) Somewhat likely (10% to 50%) Not very likely (1% to 10%) Very unlikely (less than 1%) Not sure

44% 39%

22% 17% 12% 4% 14%

24% 15% 8%

May 24, 2011

October 14, 2011

Republicans worry more about the possibility of another terrorist attack than Democrats do. Fewer believe al-Qaeda is a threat to the U.S. than did in May. Then, 72% described al-Qaeda as a serious threat.

How serious a threat do you think Al Qaeda poses to the United States?
An immediate and serious threat to the United States A somewhat serious threat to the United States A minor threat to the United States Not a threat to the United States Not sure

48% 43%

24% 21% 15% 11% 2% 4% 12% 20%

May 24, 2011

October 14, 2011

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However, many Americans arent sure the Obama Administration policies have made the country safer. Even though a majority of the public approves of the way Barack Obama is handling the issue of terrorism, less than a third think his policies have made the U.S. safer. One in ve believes they have made the country less safe.

A NEW GOP FRONT-RUNNER: HERMAN CAIN LEADS THE FIELD WITH AND WITHOUT CHRIS CHRISTIE
The leaders in the Republican race for the GOP presidential nomination continue to change. And this week, despite the media frenzy over the possible candidacy of the Governor of New Jersey (who took himself out of contention Tuesday), it is Florida straw poll winner and businessman Herman Cain who now leads the Economist/YouGov Poll. Given a list of announced candidates and three unannounced possibilities (New Jerseys Chris Christie, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani), Cain gets 21% of the vote from registered voters who say they will vote in a 2012 Republican primary or caucus. His closest challenger is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with Texas Governor Rick Perry, Texas Congressman Ron Paul and Christie at or near double digits. Reallocating the second choices of those who favor Christie, Palin and Giuliani changes little in the relative standing although it does move former House Speaker Newt Gingrich into the second tier.

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If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012? (Registered voters who
are likely to vote in Republican primary or caucus)

For announced candidates only column, chart displays second choice candidate for respondents whose rst choice is an unannounced candidate

Announced unannounced candidates Sarah Palin Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Michele Bachmann Jon Huntsman Ron Paul Rudy Giuliani Herman Cain Rick Santorum Rick Perry Chris Christie Other No preference 5% 17% 7% 3% 3% 8% 5% 21% 1% 10% 9% 3% 8%

Announced candidates only 21% 10% 5% 3% 9% 26% 1% 12% 4% 9%

GOP voters have been ckle in their choices in recent weeks. When Perry announced, he soared to the top, displacing Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, and then faded. Christie emerged, and now Cain. One constant has been Romneys continued presence at or near the top of the eld.

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"If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012?" 30
q

Preferred Republican Nominee for President

Percent of Registered Voters Likely to Vote in Republican Primary or Caucus

q q q q

Cain: 21%

20

Romney: 17%
q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q

10

Perry: 10% Christie: 9% Paul: 8%

q

q q q q q q

Bachmann: 3%

August 2011

September 2011

October 2011

Bachmann and Perry had been favorites of the Tea Party, whose identiers comprise 42% of Republican primary voters. This week, of all the announced candidates 38% of Tea Party identiers favor Cain, 15% each choose Perry and Romney. But Cain does well even among those who are not Tea Partiers. He is the choice of 17% of them, trailing only Romneys 25%.

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If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012? (Announced candidates
only; chart displays second choice candidate for respondents whose rst choice is an unannounced candidate)

Registered voters who are likely to vote in Republican primary or caucus All Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Michele Bachmann Jon Huntsman Ron Paul Herman Cain Rick Santorum Rick Perry Other No preference 21% 10% 5% 3% 9% 26% 1% 12% 4% 9% Tea Party followers 15% 11% 5% 2% 2% 38% 1% 15% 6% 5% Non-Tea Party followers 25% 8% 5% 4% 13% 17% 2% 10% 3% 12%

OBAMA APPROVAL IS AT ONLY 39%, BUT HE LEADS POSSIBLE GOP CHALLENGERS

President Obamas approval rating remains low, as half the country sees the economy continuing to worsen. In this weeks Economist/YouGov Poll, 39% approve of the way the President is handling his job overall. 53% disapprove.

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"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?" 70

Obama Approval

Disapprove: 53% 60

Percent of Respondents

40

50

30

Approve: 39%

10

20

2009

2010

2011

However, the President still leads at least two of his Republicans challengers, and runs slightly better in hypothetical general election match-ups than he did just last week, perhaps buoyed by the rising ratings he received in handling terrorism following the killing of Muslim cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, linked to several terrorist attacks on the United States. This week, President Obama runs ahead of Texas Governor Rick Perry by 10 points among registered voters, including those who lean one way or the other. Last week, he led Perry by only four points.

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If the 2012 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Rick Perry, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or Rick Perry?
(Registered voters only)
Barack Obama Rick Perry Other Not sure

48% 45% 41% 38%

7%

7%

8%

7%

September 2427, 2011

October 14, 2011

And the President leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by one. Last week he trailed Romney by three.

If the 2012 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Mitt Romney, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
(Registered voters only)
Barack Obama Mitt Romney Other Not sure

45% 42%

44%

43%

7%

6%

6%

7%

September 2427, 2011

October 14, 2011

Americans see Romney as more electable than Perry.

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TWO YEARS AFTER THE PRESIDENTS NOBEL PEACE PRIZE, 48% SAY THE PRIZE WAS A MISTAKE
Americans are even less likely today to approve of the Nobel Committees decision to award the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize to President Barack Obama than they were two years ago, immediately after the award was announced. And according to the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, their opinion of the decisions made by the Nobel Committee which is about to announce this years winner has also gotten worse. Two years ago, a plurality of the public believed that the Nobel Peace Prize Committee generally made good decisions. This year, opinion is much more divided, and the percentage that agrees the committee makes good decisions has dropped 17 points.

In general, do you think the Nobel Peace Prize Committee makes good decisions about who wins the prize?
(Asked of half of respondents)
Good decisions Bad decisions Not sure

44%

43%

27%

29%

30% 27%

October 1113, 2009

October 14, 2011

There is a very partisan divide. Democrats say the Nobel Committee makes good decisions 47% to 8%, Republicans say it doesnt by an even larger margin. That question was asked of half the sample in each poll. The other half was asked how they felt about the committee after being reminded that the Nobel Peace Prize has gone to people like Jimmy Carter, Nelson Mandela and the Dalai Lama. In
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2009, Al Gore was on the list, in 2011, Barack Obamas name replaced Gores. The Nobel Committee fared just about as poorly when names of winners were included and here, too, approval has declined since 2009.

In the past, winners of the Nobel Peace Prize have included people like the Dalai Lama, Jimmy Carter, Mikhail Gorbachev, Barack Obama and Nelson Mandela. In general, do you think the Nobel Peace Prize Committee makes good decisions about who wins the prize?*
(Asked of half of respondents)
Good decisions Bad decisions Not sure

50%

35% 26% 24%

33%

32%

October 1113, 2009

October 14, 2011

*2009 wording mentioned Al Gore instead of Barack Obama

Many Americans believe the decision to award Barack Obama the 2009 Peace Prize was simply wrong. Twice as many now disapprove as approve (in 2009, disapproval outpaced approval by only 10 points.

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In 2009, President Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama receiving the Nobel Peace Prize?
Approve Disapprove Not sure

51% 45% 35% 26% 20% 22%

October 1113, 2009

October 14, 2011

Although a majority of the Presidents partisans approve of the award, 20% of them dont and another 20% of Democrats arent sure. And while Democrats might approve in principle, most arent sure the President really deserved the Peace Prize. Half of Democrats are happy he won, but think the Nobel Committee should have waited longer before considering him. And 16% of Democrats say the prize was a mistake. That percentage is much higher among the public overall, 48% of whom now say the award to Obama was a mistake up seven points from two years ago.

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Which of these statements best describes how you feel about Barack Obama being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009?
I think Barack Obama deserved the Nobel Peace Prize I am happy Barack Obama received the prize, but the Nobel Committee really should have waited until he had been president longer and had accomplished more I think that awarding the prize to Barack Obama was a mistake; he did not deserve it

48%

39%

41% 35%

20% 16%

October 1113, 2009

October 14, 2011

THE TRIAL OF MICHAEL JACKSONS DOCTOR: BY TWO TO ONE, THOSE WITH AN OPINION WOULD VOTE GUILTY
More than eight in ten American adults are following the trial of Dr. Conrad Murray, charged with involuntary manslaughter in the death of Michael Jackson more than two years ago. And in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, twice as many say that if they were on the jury they would vote guilty than not guilty.

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If you were a member of the jury in the trial of Conrad Murray, how would you vote on the charge of involuntary manslaughter?
(Asked if respondent is aware of Conrad Murray trial)

45% 38%

18%

Guilty

Not guilty

Not sure

Nearly half say they have not yet formed an opinion. Women are more likely than men and blacks are more likely than whites to say they think Murray is guilty.

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