University of Mumbai

QUANTITATIVE METHODs IN FINANCE

Assignment on Time Series and Regression

analysis

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Apollo Hospital Enterprises Ltd.

The company was incorporated on 5th December, at Chennai. The company was promoted by Dr. Prathap C. Reddy and his associates. The Main object of the Company is to run Hospitals. The Company had set up a comprehensive 250-bed hospital with an emphasis on speciality and super specialities in over fifty departments at Greams Road, Chennai. The main items and medical equipment acquired included operating surgery unit, autoanalyser, angioscope, gamma cemera, CAT scan, etc.

Apollo Hospitals is the largest healthcare group in Asia. Apollo group owns and manages 41 hospitals in and around India and has a total capacity of 7000 beds. Apollo Hospitals was founded by Dr. Prathap C Reddy in 1979 and is the first group of hospitals that pioneered the concept of corporate healthcare delivery in India. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited (AHEL), the flagship company of the group, is a listed Company on the Bombay Stock Exchange. Today, AHEL is the leading private sector healthcare provider in India and owns and manages a network of speciality hospitals and clinics. The company also operates a chain of pharmacy retail outlets across the country, and provides consultancy services for commissioning and managing hospitals. The consultancy division of Apollo Hospitals offers project and operations management consultancy services to clients that vary from conceptualization to commissioning of a wide range of healthcare models.

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Group Companies of Apollo Hospitals

Apollo Health Street Limited: It is a global healthcare services company that offers business process outsourcing and IT solutions and services to a global clientele. Apollo Pharmacies: It is the largest retail pharmacy chain in India with over 70 round-the-clock retail outlets in India. Apollo Pharmacies is moving towards offering e-prescription based services to the end user and the doctor. Apollo Health & Lifestyle Limited: Apollo Health & Lifestyle Limited (AHLL) is engaged in establishing a network of clinics in India and neighbouring countries. It intends to address the day-to-day health needs of common people by providing a range of superior quality healthcare services at affordable prices. MedVarsity Online Limited (MOL): MedVarsity Online Limited is promoted by Apollo Hospitals and NIIT Ltd. MedVarsity has developed over 1500 hours of medical content that is accessible to the medical community anytime and anywhere. Apollo Telemedicine Enterprises Limited (ATEL): Apollo Telemedicine Enterprises Limited has developed the 'Apollo Telemedicine Network' that allows the participant sites to collaborate with institutions in the country and abroad and provides their clientele access to better healthcare in areas not adequately served by the medical community. Family Health Plan Limited (FHP): The company deals in the healthcare insurance sector and is the largest Third Party Administrator (TPA) in Asia. Equipment World: Equipment World sources and selects high-end medical equipment, catalogues and provides expert advice and services
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on technology, techno-commercial issues. Keimed.com Limited: Keimed.com Limited is a unified national pharmaceutical procurement and supply chain management company for a wide range of medical goods, consumables, drugs, surgical, health and personal care products.

Major Achievements of Apollo Hotels

Apollo Hospital, Chennai is the first Indian hospital to be awarded the 1S0 9002 and ISO 14001 Certifications. Apollo Hospital, Chennai is the first Indian hospital to introduce newer techniques in coronary angioplasty, stereotactic radiotherapy and radio-surgery (for CNS tumors). Apollo Hospital, Chennai is the first to perform liver, multi-organ and cord blood transplants in India. Apollo Hospital, Delhi is first Indian hospital to receive the Joint Commission International (JCI) USA accreditation-the gold-standard in hospital certifications worldwide. Apollo Hospital, Delhi performed the first successful liver-kidney transplant in the Indian sub-continent.

Expertise at a Glance
Among the largest healthcare consulting experience globally Over 40 large projects from concept to commissioning Clients include leading business houses across the Globe Proprietary methodologies for commissioning and managing healthcare operations

The strengths emanate from being a part of the Apollo Hospitals Group, which is credited with revolutionizing healthcare in India. Apollo, with over twenty five years of operations, is probably the only healthcare group in the world to have a comprehensive presence 4|Page

across the entire healthcare space. It is the leading player across all healthcare delivery systems including primary, secondary and tertiary care, pharmacy operations, health insurance, healthcare consulting, health informatics, nursing education and post graduate training for doctors.

DATA For the calculatuion of Time Series and Regression analysis a sample data of closing share price and sensex values has been considered from 15th September 2011 to 05th October 2011.

Script : Apollo Hospital Enterprises Ltd.

Date Open Price
520.00 520.00 525.00 529.15 522.00 518.00 515.35 519.00 510.00 519.95 518.00 516.00

High Price
522.00 529.00 529.00 529.15 525.90 524.00 523.95 524.00 522.00 528.00 519.05 522.95

Low Price
516.00 518.05 518.05 519.45 518.20 518.00 515.35 507.05 510.00 516.05 512.70 512.15

Close Price
520.00 525.15 519.85 520.05 518.85 520.35 519.05 508.55 514.45 518.95 513.65 518.60

Sensex
16,876.54 16,933.83 16,745.35 17,099.28 17,065.15 16,361.15 16,162.06 16,051.10 16,524.03 16,446.02 16,698.07 16,453.76
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15-Sep-11 16-Sep-11 19-Sep-11 20-Sep-11 21-Sep-11 22-Sep-11 23-Sep-11 26-Sep-11 27-Sep-11 28-Sep-11 29-Sep-11 30-Sep-11

03-Oct-11 04-Oct-11 05-Oct-11

518.00 515.00 523.85

518.00 524.50 524.50

510.50 214.00 506.00

518.60 515.95 508.95

16,151.45 15,864.86 15,792.41

Time Series
Time Series Calculation has been shown for three days & 4days moving average.

3rd day moving

Xt Da ys
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Date
15-Sep-11 16-Sep-11 19-Sep-11 20-Sep-11 21-Sep-11 22-Sep-11 23-Sep-11 26-Sep-11 27-Sep-11 28-Sep-11 29-Sep-11 30-Sep-11 03-Oct-11 04-Oct-11 05-Oct-11 Forecasted

Price
520.00 525.15 519.85 520.05 518.85 520.35 519.05 508.55 514.45 518.95 513.65 518.60 518.60 515.95 508.95

Ft Averag e

Er Erro r

521.67 521.68 519.58 519.75 519.42 515.98 514.02 513.98 515.68 517.07 516.95 517.72 514.50

1.62 2.83 0.77 0.70 10.87 1.53 4.93 0.33 2.92 1.53 1.00 8.77

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7761.00

6728. 00

37. 80

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) =

i.e average of Errors where,

(Er) n

= Summation
n = Number of periods considered for calculating the error

3rd Day Moving

37.80 13.00

MAD

2.91

Error (Er)

Er = Xt - Ft

3rd Day Moving

Er

7761.00-6728.00

Er

1033.00

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Exponential Smoothing

F(t+1) = * Xt + (1-) * Ft

F(t+1)

0.7*7761.00+(10.7)*6728.00 5432.7 2018.40

F(t+1)

7451.10

4th day moving

Xt Day s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Date
15-Sep-11 16-Sep-11 19-Sep-11 20-Sep-11 21-Sep-11 22-Sep-11 23-Sep-11 26-Sep-11 27-Sep-11 28-Sep-11 29-Sep-11 30-Sep-11 03-Oct-11 04-Oct-11 05-Oct-11 Forecaste d

Price
520.00 525.15 519.85 520.05 518.85 520.35 519.05 508.55 514.45 518.95 513.65 518.60 518.60 515.95 508.95

Ft Averag e

Er Erro r

521.26 520.98 519.78 519.58 516.70 515.60 515.25 513.90 516.41 517.45 516.70

2.41 0.63 0.73 11.03 2.25 3.35 1.60 4.70 2.19 1.50 7.75

515.53

7761.0 0

6209. 13

38. 13
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Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) =

i.e average of Errors where,

= Summation

n = Number of periods considered for calculatin

4th Day Moving

Error (Er)

4th Day Moving

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Exponential Smoothing

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x Sr No.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

y Sensex
16876.54 16933.83 16745.35 17099.28 17065.15 16361.15 16162.06 16051.10 16524.03 16446.02 16698.07 16453.76 16151.45 15864.86 15792.41 247225.06

xy

Date
15-Sep-11 16-Sep-11 19-Sep-11 20-Sep-11 21-Sep-11 22-Sep-11 23-Sep-11 26-Sep-11 27-Sep-11 28-Sep-11 29-Sep-11 30-Sep-11 03-Oct-11 04-Oct-11 05-Oct-11 TOTAL

Price
520.00 525.15 519.85 520.05 518.85 520.35 519.05 508.55 514.45 518.95 513.65 518.60 518.60 515.95 508.95 8352.30

270400.00 275782.52 270244.02 270452.00 269205.32 270764.12 269412.90 258623.10 264658.80 269309.10 263836.32 268945.96 268945.96 266204.40 1210550.06 4967334.61

284817602.37 286754598.47 280406746.62 292385376.52 291219344.52 267687229.32 261212183.44 257637811.21 273043567.44 270471573.84 278825541.72 270726218.14 260869337.10 251693782.82 249400213.61 4077151127.15

8775800.80 8892800.82 8705070.20 8892480.56 8854253.08 8513524.40 8388917.24 8162786.91 8500787.23 8534662.08 8576963.66 8532919.94 8376141.97 8185474.52 17375599.10 137268182.51

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r=

Nxy-xy

Nx-(x) x NY-(y)

r=

238266.45 151803826987.061

r= r=
r=

238266.45 389620.11

0.6115353523 Or 61.15%

Since the value of 'r' is 61.15% this means the variables are low co-related

Since r < 0.70, Regression equation is not calculated

If r > 0.70 , then

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