Anda di halaman 1dari 7

Bronnen The report summarizes the outcome of 283 surveys gathered from across 23 provinces and municipalities.

According to the Sentiment Survey, 58% of hoteliers believe that occupancy would get better or much better than 2010, 28% felt that performance would remain the same, and only 13% felt that it would get worse or much worse. For the first time since the Survey was launched in 2009, the outlook on the growth of average room rates (ARR) was more positive than occupancy 67% stated that market-wide ARR performance was expected to be better or much better than 2010, 21% stated that ARR would remain constant, while only 12% were worried that ARR would decline. Local economic trends, local tourism trends and global economic growth trends were perceived to have the most positive impact on hotel market performance. Survey respondents also anticipated that all demand segments will perform better in 2011, with more optimistic outlook on domestic and MICE markets than foreign demand. All surveyed cities expressed keen optimism in 2011, with the exception of Shanghai. Almost 70% of hoteliers in Shanghai expect that there will be a significant drop in occupancy levels. In addition, Horwath HTL reported on the top gainers in occupancy and ARR in 2010. The strongest occupancy growth rates in 2010 were recorded by Shanghai, Beijing and Xiamen; at 13%, 11% and 11% respectively. Shanghai, Sanya and Guangzhou recorded the strongest ARR growth rates at 20%, 19% and 17% respectively. In terms of Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR), Shanghai led the pack with a 50% year-on-year growth in 2010, followed by Guangzhou at 37% and Beijing at 29%. Shanghais gains in occupancy and ARR were largely credited to the Shanghai Expo, which was held between May and October. Within the next 3 to 5 years, about 630 new projects are expected to enter the China hotel market, injecting more than 200,000 hotel rooms. About 275 of these new projects, representing more than 85,000 hotel rooms, will be opening in the top 15 Chinese cities. Shanghai and Sanya will be recipients of the bulk of this new supply, with 16,000 and 10,000 new rooms respectively in the next 3 to 5 years. Other cities like Tianjin and Guangzhou are also expecting inventory to grow significantly. About the China Hotel Development and Financing Conference The China Hotel Development and Financing Conference, co-organized by Horwath HTL, STR Global and the China Tourist Hotels Association (CTHA), is the premier hotel investment event that gathers hospitality industry professionals involved in hotel development in China. In its 7th year running, this 3-day conference has attracted about 600 participants in 2011. Participants include real estate

developers, hotel operators, architects, designers, lawyers, fund managers and banks.

summary The developments in the US and Europe have made our global economics team more concerned about the growth outlook in the developed world. Our team has cut developed world (G10) growth to 1.5% this year and next (down from 1.9% and 2.4% previously). As Head of Global Economics, Joachim Fels highlights the two main reasons for our growth downgrade are recent policy errors - Europe's slow and inadequate response to sovereign stress and the drama around lifting the US debt ceiling - plus the prospect of further fiscal tightening in Europe and the United States. Emerging markets, including China, are unlikely to stay completely unaffected from these developments. Implications for China's Growth Outlook Where Are We in the Growth Cycle? A number of growth indicators are showing that China's economy is slowing moderately, in line with our marginally below-consensus forecasts for 2011. Domestic demand indicators such as growth in retail sales, fixed asset investment, industrial production and electricity consumption have all shown signs of moderation in recent months. While nominal retail sales have been holding up well, real retail sales have been falling in recent months, suggesting that the high inflation rates have started to erode consumers' purchasing power. Labor shortages and power supply disruptions have also dragged down overall industrial production. Given that we are unlikely to see improvements in these supply-side constraints anytime soon, we do not expect to see an improvement in industrial production growth in the months ahead. Moreover, external demand, while stronger than our initial expectations, has also begun to moderate in line with what we have seen elsewhere in the region. We're comfortable with our 9.0% growth forecast for this year... We have been highlighting that economic growth is likely to moderate in the second half of this year and the data points that we have seen so far reaffirm our view. We have been building in a moderation in GDP growth from 9.7% in 1Q11 to 8.1% in 4Q11. Hence, we remain comfortable with our 9.0% growth forecast for this year. ...but we have made changes to the composition of growth: Reflecting mainly the stronger-thanexpected performance of exports over the last few months, we now expect net exports to contribute positively to GDP growth this year, while consumption should contribute less to GDP growth owing to the higher-than-expected inflation eroding purchasing power. Accordingly, we now expect a higher trade balance at 3.6% of GDP in 2011 compared with our earlier estimate of 3.3%. On inflation, we have marked to market our forecasts to 5% from 4.6%, reflecting higher-thanexpected inflation in the recent past. However, our view remains that inflation in China has likely peaked in July 2011 at 6.5% and will moderate in coming months. Food inflation is likely to soften via the stabilization of prices for foods such as pork and vegetables and the robust grain production expected in the autumn. The sequential momentum in global commodity prices has also eased and the technical factor of a high base in the second half of last year all point towards a moderation in inflation pressures. More Uncertain External Environment in 2012

Looking into 2012, our global economics team is now expecting the developed world to grow by just 1.5% as compared to 2.4% previously. This reflects recent policy errors and the prospects of fiscal tightening in both the US and Europe (see Global Economics: Dangerously Close to Recession by Joachim Fels and Manoj Pradhan, August 17, 2011), resulting in a weaker external environment. Hence, we expect external demand to be a drag on GDP growth in 2012. However, its impact would be limited as compared to 2008, because the external environment is not likely to be quite as weak. More importantly, over the last few years, China's dependence on net exports has decreased significantly. In 2011, we are expecting contribution of net exports to be just 0.3pp down from 1% in 2010 and an average of 2.4pp during 2005-07. Moreover, we are expecting domestic demand to display some resilience in 2012, for four reasons: 1) Easing inflation should help to repair some of the damage to purchasing power that we have seen this year. 2) Wage growth in the economy is expected to remain strong, supporting consumption.

3) We believe that the government will accelerate policy reforms to support steady improvement in private consumption growth. 4) While investment in commodity housing will remain moderate, the pick-up in construction of the social housing investments and select central government sponsored infrastructure projects should ensure adequate support to overall investment growth. In general, we think the government will continue to focus on rebalancing and aim to sustain domestic demand. On inflation, the stabilization of food prices is expected to continue into 2012 and slowing economic activity will help to cap overall demand pressures. No Further Rate Hikes - but No Easing Either Since the growth and inflation dynamics are largely panning out according to our expectations, we are not making any changes to our policy calls for 2011 - that is, we do not expect further rates hikes this year. For 2012, we had called for a rate hike but now think that with the renewed uncertainties in the global economy, moderating growth and inflation pressures, there is very little reason to see further rate hikes. Hence, we are now expecting policy rates to remain at their current levels until end-2012. On liquidity management, we believe that future RRR hikes will be dependent on net foreign exchange reserves buildup. Moreover, the appreciation of the RMB has gained pace recently and this will help in easing domestic liquidity pressures. In our view, the PBoC may now have a greater tendency to use the more flexible OMOs as compared to RRR hikes. What if DM Faces Recession? While our global team highlights that`` the developed world will be dangerously close to recession, it is not their base case. Clearly, in the event of recession of the developed world, downside to Chinese growth will increase significantly. We believe that in such a case, the policy-makers in China are likely to rely more on fiscal policy than monetary policy. Trailing high inflation stress means that monetary easing will not come easily as policy-makers will be wary of stoking inflation pressures further. Moreover, the elevated asset prices and the concerns of banking sector asset quality issues also means that policy-makers would be hesitant to rely push credit to GDP higher.

Hence, we believe that fiscal policy will be used more actively to manage the downside risks to growth. While the overhang of the local government financing vehicles (LGFV) issues means that local government will be somewhat constrained in pursuing policy stimulus, we believe that the central government retains a strong balance sheet which can be employed to boost growth when necessary. The additional fiscal spending may include more focus on supporting social housing construction, select infrastructure projects to be sponsored by the central government, and incentives for boosting consumer spending. Moreover, the government could speed up the pilot program for local bond issuance to raise funds to support social housing construction - but would likely maintain restrictive measures on the housing market so as to retain control assets prices. Since this is the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan, many infrastructure projects are ready to proceed. If necessary, it should be easy for the central government to bring forward some strategically important investments to jump-start the economy. Most importantly, the government will likely initiate measures to boost private consumption. The renewed weakness in the developed world has brought into focus the structural weakness of an external demand-led growth model. Policy-makers could thus accelerate the pace of structural reforms, which would be helpful in rebalancing the economy and boosting consumption on a sustainable basis. One of the policy options we think the government could consider is registering the part of the urban population, which has moved from rural China. The government could choose to bring back its subsidy scheme to boost consumption. If it happens this time, we expect the subsidies to focus more on rural households and low-income urban population, households that have a higher marginal propensity to consume. In our view, this potential policy shift would be the key to watch regarding the government's determination to rebalance China's growth model, which could bring about far-reaching implications.

Important Disclosure Information at the end of this Forum Press release) At the 7th Annual China Hotel Development and Financing Conference that kicked off today, Horwath HTL released results from its China Hotel Market Sentiment Survey. Part of a global initiative and conducted twice a year, the China Hotel Market Sentiment Survey was designed to provide the China hotel industry a quick assessment of the future market outlook. The report summarizes the outcome of 283 surveys gathered from across 23 provinces and municipalities. According to the Sentiment Survey, 58% of hoteliers believe that occupancy would get better or much better than 2010, 28% felt that performance would remain the same, and only 13% felt that it would get worse or much worse. For the first time since the Survey was launched in 2009, the outlook on the growth of average room rates (ARR) was more positive than occupancy 67% stated that market-wide ARR performance was expected to be better or much better than 2010, 21% stated that ARR would remain constant, while only 12% were worried that ARR would decline. Local economic trends, local tourism trends and global economic growth trends were perceived to have the most positive impact on hotel market performance. Survey respondents also anticipated that all demand segments will perform better in 2011, with more optimistic outlook on domestic and MICE markets

than foreign demand. All surveyed cities expressed keen optimism in 2011, with the exception of Shanghai. Almost 70% of hoteliers in Shanghai expect that there will be a significant drop in occupancy levels. In addition, Horwath HTL reported on the top gainers in occupancy and ARR in 2010. The strongest occupancy growth rates in 2010 were recorded by Shanghai, Beijing and Xiamen; at 13%, 11% and 11% respectively. Shanghai, Sanya and Guangzhou recorded the strongest ARR growth rates at 20%, 19% and 17% respectively. In terms of Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR), Shanghai led the pack with a 50% year-on-year growth in 2010, followed by Guangzhou at 37% and Beijing at 29%. Shanghais gains in occupancy and ARR were largely credited to the Shanghai Expo, which was held between May and October. Within the next 3 to 5 years, about 630 new projects are expected to enter the China hotel market, injecting more than 200,000 hotel rooms. About 275 of these new projects, representing more than 85,000 hotel rooms, will be opening in the top 15 Chinese cities. Shanghai and Sanya will be recipients of the bulk of this new supply, with 16,000 and 10,000 new rooms respectively in the next 3 to 5 years. Other cities like Tianjin and Guangzhou are also expecting inventory to grow significantly.
Russell Leigh Moses is a Beijing-based analyst and professor who writes on Chinese politics. He is writing a book on the changing role of power in the Chinese political system.

Russell Leigh Moses


Some Chinese commentators have appeared to take a certain delight pinning the blame for the U.S. debt crisis on the waffling political culture in Washington. But as the global economy flirts dangerously with another recession, it is far from clear that political leaders in Beijing widely praised for taking decisive action in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis are poised to make the tough choices that lie before them. While the U.S. and Europe are struggling, China faces plenty of economic obstacles of its own. Inflation hit a new three-year high in July amid signs that growth is slowing. Meanwhile, any significant downturn in the U.S. or Europe stands to hit the countrys exporters hard just as it did in 2008. Now more than before, there is pressure on the government to shift the country away from investment-heavy super-growth to a more balanced, albeit less thrilling, style of growth driven primarily by domestic consumption.

Making that transition is not going to be easy. Apart from the limited economic options available to Beijing, there is a very muscular status quo in place politically. No one powerful in China is eager to sacrifice their advantages. State agenciesand the entrepreneurs in heavy industry and energy they supportwant to protect the perks of access and influence they have earned. Well-connected exporters are not eager to see further RMB revaluation anytime soon, for that would further erode market share for them. This lack of political support for a new direction is much the same outside of Beijing. Provinces and localities see no need to interrupt the dispatch of largesse to their regions. Cadres recognize the pains caused to the public by an overpriced property market, but many are anxious about any stoppage in the flow of money from Beijing for new projects. Likewise, as Beijings financial commitment to better health care and social insurance in the countryside continues to grow, local officials based there and bent on promotion would surely resist if those outlays were suddenly redirected to deal with an economic crisis created largely by urban overinvestment. The political price of such policy shifts has to give the Hu leadership pause. Debates breaking out in the Party media reflect that hesitancy in the central leadership. In an editorial published Monday, the authoritative Peoples Daily complained about monopolistic (read: state-run) enterprises in transportation and telecoms charging sky-high fees while regular people struggle to contend with rising prices and suggested price controls as a smart way to ease the Chinese consumers burden (in Chinese); elsewhere in the same issue, an essay insisted that the best remedy for Chinas economic ills was an adjustment in the tax structure (in Chinese). Meanwhile, Premier Wen Jiabao on Tuesday appeared to deviate from the stream of anti-U.S. invective flowing out of Beijing by saying the international community should strengthen communication and coordination (in Chinese) hardly the stuff of nationalist outrage and probably designed to calm both the markets and the masses. Discussions are healthy, but with the economy wobbling, its not a good time for the Party to be as indecisive or deadlocked as the U.S. Congress recently was. Party meetings on the economy underway at the northern seaside resort of Beidaihe remain in lockdown, leaving us to guess at what, if any, major decisions will get made. The political consequences of a misstep here look very unpromising. The policy-making process in China may be well suited to crisis management: Tactical adjustmentssuch as a tightening of monetary policy for a brief periodhave worked and support for the leaderships economic approach has remained generally solid among the powerful. But what happens if an economic tsunami arrives and major restructuring is called for? How willing are Hus supporters to take a major financial hit, or support fewer loans, less investment and more social subsidies to cushion the impact of a slump? Moreover, many major cities and the cadres that captain them depend heavily on land sales revenue. With property firms already being throttled where loans are concerned, a crucial source of political support for rising officials is at risk of evaporating. These are the same officials whose backing is critical in implementing central policies. If disgruntled officials balk and start casting about for allies, that would disrupt Party unitya precious commodity as China heads gets closer to a leadership transition in 2012. Policies based on economic necessity could well create political disruptions for Hu and his followers, making the changeover to the new leadership even more contentious than it already is starting to look. The economic scenarios for China have almost always assumed a happy trajectory for growth and expansioncomforting to Beijing and worrisome to some in the United States. The assumption about a smooth political transition from Hu to whoever is next has likewise rested on the same belief. Both are about to get tested.

Anda mungkin juga menyukai