CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN HUONG RIVER BASIN AND ADAPTATION IN ITS COASTAL DISTRICT PHU VANG
Title of Program Title of Project Project Number Country Supervising Agency Implementing Agency
Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme (NCAP), follow up of NCCSAP Climate Change Impacts in Huong River Basin and Adaptation in its Coastal District Phu Vang Viet Nam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) of Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH) International Cooperation Department, Vietnam Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Water Resource Management, MONRE, Department of Natural Resources and Environment Thua Thien Hue (TTH), Peoples Committee Netherlands Climate Assistance Program TT Hue Province Peoples Committee Phu Vang District Peoples Committee TT Hue Department of Natural Resources and Environment Huong River Management Board Department of Agriculture and Rural Development Department of Science, Technology Department of Fishery Hydrometservice of Central Vietnam Department of Transportation Department of Planning and Investment TT Hue Tourism Department Viet Nam Red Cross and its TT Hue Branch Hue University
Collaborating Agencies
1. General
The development objective of the project is to strengthen the capacity and preparedness of the sectors, organizations and Vietnamese people to adapt and respond to the climate change in order to foresee and minimize its negative impacts on communities, their poverty and livelihoods, to reduce losses and efficiently recover from negative effects of climate change related disasters and phenomena, and to take advantage of their possible positive impacts. This project is one of the important projects of the on-going Netherlands Climate Assistance Program (NCAP), formerly called Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Program (NCCSAP), in 15 developing countries. The Vietnam project is a pilot study of climate change impacts on the natural environment, including water systems and flows, of the most vulnerable people and adaptation policies and measures in Viet Nam. The project regards the Huong River Basin in Thua Thien Hue Province in general and its lagoon population in particular. Future impacts of climate change on the water system and flows of the entire river basin will be projected in an integrated way. The social-economic focus is on the coastal district of Phu Vang in order to involve vulnerable stakeholders in preparing detailed measures to adapt to the projected climate change impacts in their local area. The project will be developed and implemented by the Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology (IMH) in Ha Noi, and the Department of Natural Resources and Environment in Hue (DONRE). The first phase of the project consists of the following major activities: 1. Collect and analyze data on meteo-hydrological factors and natural conditions in the study area. 2. Assess the impacts of climate change on water resources by conducting water and climate change modeling for the Huong River Basin with the help of MIKE 11 and MIKE Basin (or other suitable and available) software. 3. Collect and analyze data on administrative and socio-economic circumstances of the coastal zone of the river basin Phu Vang district. 4. Collect and analyze data on livelihoods and vulnerability to climate change and disasters of the poorest people in Phu Vang district. 5. Develop the stakeholder action plan (SAP) for one commune in Phu Vang district. 6. Carry out a large stakeholder meeting in a coastal commune to introduce the project to the local community and authority. 7. Carry out semi-structured interviews with different categories of local and external stakeholders.
8. Organize a decision making (or technical) workshop with key-stakeholders in one commune in Phu Vang district using scenarios structuring tool and decision making support software. 9. Guide key-stakeholders in their communication with the social environment. 10. Carry out a large stakeholder meeting in the commune to conclude the projects first phase. 11. Summarize and finalize the first phase works and prepare the second phase. Below the background of the project is described.
Studies showed that climate change will impose not only on the change in climatic variability, but also the frequency and intensity of extreme events that definitely will harm the long-term sustainable development of the country.
Environment and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. UK. This 24 month research project started in April 1996. It is an interdisciplinary study of socio-economic vulnerability to climate change impacts in the coastal zone of the Red River delta of Viet Nam. The ultimate goal is to develop an effective approach for policy development regarding for adaptation relevant to both the case study site and more generally to vulnerable groups and regions. "Capacity building for adaptation to climate change in Central Vietnam" funded by CIDA Canada (2002-2005) with the objective to strengthen capacity to plan and implement community-based anticipatory adaptation strategies through disasters preparedness and integration of risk reduction and mitigation into local development planning. "Preparedness for disasters related to climate change" supported by the Netherlands Red Cross and implemented by The Vietnam Red Cross Society. The objective of the project is to strengthen the most vulnerable people communities in the disaster-prone areas to climate change and disasters to response and adapt to these disasters.
associated macro economics; (b) land use and forestry; (c) Agriculture, and (d) energy. This project is implemented by the IMH in cooperation with relevant ministries and government agencies. Vietnam: Preparation of initial national communication related to the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change" funded by GEF and implemented by the IMH with the objective of enabling the country to harmonize and uptake the previous results, fill in gaps, further enhance its scientific and technical capacity, so that the country can prepare the reporting of its initial national communication. The Vietnam national communication report has been submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat in November 2003.
Huong River basin belongs to Thua Thien Hue Province, which located in the specific monsoon climate area of Central Part of Vietnam with severe hydrological regime: very long dry season, short rain season but often with very big flow and discharge. Every year in this area there are number of extreme weather events such as typhoons, tropical cyclones which bring heavy rain with very high rainfall. Moreover, the topography of the basin changes rapidly from the upstream high mountain zone down to the plain and large lagoon system, with hardly any transition area. This results in a high runoff in the rainy season, and large floods and inundations downstream. In the dry season, salinity intrusion comes very high upstream, even upstream of Bach Ho bridge.
Every 2-3 years there are big floods and inundation in the Hue and adjacent areas. However, to reserve the landscape of Hue city and coastal tourist areas, it is not rational to build an embankment system around Hue city and the historical sites. Such a project would require very high budget from the central government and may harm the landscape of heritage and tourist areas. Because of the above characteristics, Huong River basin and Thua Thien Hue Province are very sensitive and vulnerable to climate change impacts and disasters. In recent years, Thua Thien Hue Province and Huong River Basin have been impacted and influenced by numerous natural disasters such as typhoons, storms,
floods and drought with significantly increasing frequency and intensity, causing enormous socio-economical losses, serious damages in downstream environment, effecting the World Heritage Hue city, destroying many people lives and property. For example, the losses in Thua Thien Hue Province caused by the historical big floods in October 1983 and September 1990 are presented in Table 1. Table 1. Losses caused by the floods in October 1983 and September 1990 No 1 2 Item Number of people dead and missing Damaged rice area Damaged/inundated subsidiary crop area Damaged industrial crop area Fields swept away/filled up Infrastructure Collapsed houses Hospitals Flood in Oct. 1983 30 6152ha 8754 ha 65 ha 30 ha 1340 52 Flood in Sep. 1990 5 7066ha 1994 ha 1577 ha 370 ha 735 91
Irrigation structures: Soil swept away Stone swept away Concrete Transport Soil Concrete Damaged bridges Electrical cable poles 4 Other properties Sunk boats Dead buffaloes/cows Dead domestic cattle Total losses
1.24 mil. m3 1050 m3 240 m3 821000 m3 198 m3 54 32 915 425 heads 170000 75 bills. VNDong
1.29 mil. m3 1265 m3 151 m3 742000 m3 285 m3 55 35 270 heads 194210 120 bills. VNDong
The main stream of Huong River - Huu Trach - has the length of more than 100km. Originating from the altitude of 1,318m, it runs in the general direction of South-North, passing the Hue city then flows into the Tam Giang Cau Hai lagoon system and finally goes to the sea at Thuan An river mouth. Main branch of Huong River called Ta Trach has 51km of length, the basin area of 729km2. Ta Trach meets Huu Trach at Tuan confluence (in 10km upstream from Hue). Besides, there is Bo river (length: 94km, basin area: 938km2) that converges with Huong River at Sinh confluence (8km in the north from Hue). During the past decades, the natural forests in the uplands in the basin have been badly degraded, due to recent uncontrolled logging, timber extraction for construction and fuel wood, the destruction and spraying of defoliants during the war. Erosion and large-scale flooding are the result. The new forests are mainly pine, casuarinas tree and some industrial plants. Hard stone is distributed in high mountainous area; schist, laterite and bazan soil - in midland, sandy-clay - in the plain and sandy - along the coast. The soil is poor with low humus and strongly eroded. Yet, during the dry season from January to August, the flow of Huong River diminishes to such an extent that salt water traverses up-river and causes salinity intrusion, threatens the domestic water intake of the city. This insufficient water sources have been occurred seriously in many years. Up to now, the irrigated area is about 50 to 60% of cultivated area. Tam Giang Cau Hai lagoon system in Huong River basin is the largest lagoon in Vietnam and unique ecosystem. Tam Giang-Cau Hai was included on a list of 16 proposed by MOST wet land and marine protected areas in 1998. On this list, the area of the proposed marine protected area of Tam Giang Cau Hai lagoon was given as 24,876 ha. However, because of developing aquaculture without planning, the environment and water quality of the lagoons has been changing with negative impacts. Building the anti-salinity weir in Huong River is decreasing freshwater income to downstream and impacting to fauna and flora in lagoons. Hydro-meteorological conditions The basin has the highest rainfall in Vietnam, with more than 5 meters of rain per year in the highlands and up to 3 meters of rain in the Hue city. Annual rainfall in Huong River basin is very abundant, about 2500 mm in coastal areas to 3500 mm in the upper part of the basin. Besides, the topography of the basin changes
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rapidly from upper stream down to plain, there is almost not a transition area. This results in a high runoff in the rainy season, big floods and inundation in wide areas. Rainy season prolongs from August to December, 3 months of rain predominantly are SeptemberNovember, with total rainfall of 1,850 mm, accounting for 65.9 % of yearly rainfall, of which rainfall of October is recorded at 796 mm, accounting for 43 % of seasonal rainfall. Maximum 3-day rainfall is 600-1,000 mm corresponding to frequency of 5 % in the Basin of Huong River. Typhoon, tropical depression could cause extremely big flood on Huong River. Cold air surge operated particularly or cold air surge combined with typhoon, or with low atmosphere, could also cause flood above alarming level 3. Large floods usually occur from September -November, but at the end of May 1989, there was a flood spell that hit Hue at 1 m higher than alarming level 3. As the characteristic of Thua Thien-Hue seacoast, therefore, prior disembarking to the North (Quang Binh-Thanh Hoa), so tropical storms went along the seacoast of this region and causing heavy rain, and enormous flood here. In 1990, there were 5 times that tropical storms caused flood above alarm level 3 at Hue, although, in those 5 times, typhoons did not enter directly to Thua Thien Hue. When flood on Huong River, Bo River was up, then jointed directly typhoon, they cause extremely enormous losses. From 1976-1998, there was two times that low atmosphere disembarked directly to the Huong River Delta, causing flood at above alarm level 3. Land use Thua Thien-Hue Province has a total area of 500,920ha, among this 49,107ha is agricultural land, 180,412ha is forest. Except Nam Dong district that is located in the mountainous area, other districts are in the plain and strongly affected by inundation. Agricultural lands are described in Table 3. Fields in Huong River plain are low in comparison to sea level and flood water level so almost all of them are inundated when flood exceeding the alarm level 3 (at Hue, the alarm level 3 is 3.00m). 2/3 of population and 2/3 of houses in Huong River Basin may be inundated when a big flood occurs. The distribution of population and houses by altitude is described in Table 2. Table 2: Distribution of population and houses by elevation Elevati on (m) 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 Total Populati on 101,135 187,689 301,028 87,807 39,339 717,018 No. of household 21,438 40,025 58,742 16,896 7,662 144,763 House Concrete Health School houses Station with tile roofing 14,991 79 9 49 23,615 219 21 110 16,231 305 24 45 3,335 462 5 26 1,086 105 2 13 59,258 1,170 61 243 Warehouse 25 45 43 24 8 145 Office
93 44 70 18 7 232
Land type Specialized in Rice nursery Double rice Spring Winter rice Summer Autumn rice 1 rice +1 subsidiary Specialized in subsidiary area Total
South part of Huong River 585 7,568 1,746 2,666 134 3,342 1,5471
Northern part of Huong River Southern part Northern part Subof Bo river of Bo river Total 204 242 446 2,991 370 237 265 2,064 6,131 5,019 906 551 182 1,478 8,378 8,011 1,276 788 447 3,542 14,509
Table 4. Distribution of cultivated area (ha) by elevation Elevation (m) Below 0 0-0.5 m 0.5-1 m Above 1 m Total Southern part Of Huong River 5,145 2,800 1,897 5,629 15,471 Northern part of Huong River Southern part Northern part of of Bo river Bo river 500 1,528 1,528 2,762 2,640 1,567 1,463 2,521 6,131 8,378 Total 7,173 7,090 6,104 9,613 29,980
Social-economic development In 2004 Thua Thien Hue maintain a good growth rate; the industrial production value increased 15.5% in comparison with that of 2003. Agriculture-forestry-aquaculture production has overcome difficulties and challenges on weather, diseases..., and the growth rate obtained 5.4% in comparison with in 2003. The agriculture value decreased respectively from 59.9% to 58.6% and 57% of GDP. In 2004 the tourism and service sectors has developed and meet the demands for production, business and living standard of the people. The economic growth rate is expected 9-10% during the period 2001-2005, and 12-13% during the period 2006-2010. Transportation Railway and national road 1A run across the province from the northwest to the southeast. The section from Phu Oc to Hue with the length of more than 15km crosses inundated fields, and the section on the right riverside of Hue is located in a rather high area. A lot of inter-provincial, inter-county, inter-regional roads crossing the plain are often inundated when a big flood occurs. Water resource management structures
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Huong River is a main source of irrigation for agriculture, aquaculture, provides water supply for industry and energy generation, municipal and civil use, for existence of aquatic and water related environment, ecosystems and wild life on the large area. Most of people in the Huong River basin are living near poverty line; their livelihoods strongly depend on its water (hydrological) regime. In Huong River basin there is a unique ecological and economical site Tam GiangCau Hai lagoons - the largest and most complicated lagoon system in Vietnam, which is very sensitive to climate change. In the basin, there are 10 medium and small reservoirs with the volume from 2 to 10 million m3, 6 water storage dams, 56 irrigation/drainage pumping stations, dyke system for preventing the plain from sea water intrusion and dyke system along Huong River from Qui Lai to Tan My, along Tam Giang, Dong lagoons and Hai bridge. There is high concentrated population in Huong River plain, most of cultivated land are rice fields. The peoples livelihood strongly depends on water resource management. Water demand for agriculture, aquaculture, other economical sectors and human life in the area is very high. Huong River is a huge water source but the water distribution in different times of year is very unequal. Very high discharge in rainy season causes flood and inundation, low flow in long dry season often causes water supply crisis, increases water pollution, salinity intrusion, ecological and wild life degradation. Because of geographical and socio-economical characteristics, the water resource of Huong River basin is highly influenced by climate change impacts. The uplands in the basin have been badly degraded, due to timber extraction for construction and fuel wood, the spraying of defoliants during the war and recent uncontrolled use of wood for fuel.
Lagoons, small bays, deltas, sand beaches, islands, soft and hard sea beds, and brackish aqua-cultural ponds have varying structures and functions. There are many fishery and farming activities along the lagoons. More then 300,000 people, mostly poor, are living along the lagoon. The problem of managing of the entire system needs deep analysis. Hue and Huong River are World Heritage sites and tourist places. Protection and adaptation for Huong river system to any change is very important for these activities. The coastal zone of the river basin, including Phu Vang district, is a very complicated combination of downstream flows and the unique Tam Giang - Cau Hai lagoon system with some poorest, most vulnerable communities of fisherfolk and peasant households. Phu Vang is among the most vulnerable districts in the Thua Thien Hue province. Most damages and losses in Phu Vang are caused by rain water floods from the upstream area as well as by storms arriving from the sea. The low level of poor peoples culture and awareness, their very limited sources of income, along with their unwillingness or disability to resettle - all this contribute to the losses of human lives and properties in the case of a large storm or flood. In the historical 1999 flood, 64 households of Hoa Duan village of the lagoon were washed out to the ocean and hundreds of people died or remained missing. Together with more severe floods and storms in the rainy season, the stronger and longer drought season leads to deeper salinity intrusion, environmental pollution, land and wild life degradation, may bring bankruptcy to many small agricultural and aqua-cultural farms in the lagoon. Poor people are getting trapped into a downward cycle of needing more subsidy-credits, increasing debts and more poverty. One of the biggest problems of the district is erosion and land loss along the Huong river banks and sea coasts, due to floods and the complicated mechanism of opening and closing the salt water intrusion barrier where the river enters the lagoon. There must be a governmental program for anti-erosion constructions in the coastal zone from the Thuan An estuary to the Tu Hien estuary. The government and local authorities have been trying to cope with some of the problems. They established Disaster Management and Preparedness Centers in district and local level. They also plan the project of Ta Trach Reservoir for the purposes of flood control, water regulation and distribution for agriculture, aquaculture and household use. But these measures are still in stage of preparation and not yet effectively coordinated.
7. Objectives Development objectives The main development objective of the project is to strengthen the capacity of the sectors, institutions and Vietnamese people to adapt and respond to the climate change impacts in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change and disasters by raising their understanding and preparedness, to foresee, minimize the negative impacts and losses. Through this, the project may also contribute to the implementation of Vietnam national strategy on poverty elimination and sustainable development. The results and findings of the project may be analyzed to develop a participatory climate change adaptation and integrated water resources management model, which can be used in other basins and areas nation-wide. Project objectives 1. To combine water flow modeling for an entire river basin with participatory management tools for a coastal commune. 2. To study existing and future climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin and understand how poor peoples livelihoods strongly depend on climate and water resource changes. 3. To improve awareness, a pro-active attitude and preparedness regarding climate change and its impacts among all related stakeholders, especially the most vulnerable communities and individuals; 4. To assess, prioritize and improve the existing adaptation measures with stakeholders participation. 5. To prepare and develop, with stakeholders participation, the optimal feasible adaptation plan and policy at district level with view to replicate at provincial and national levels.
Water modeling tools The project will use mathematical models with various physical scenarios. 1. Rainfall-runoff model - for calculation of runoff flow caused by rainfall on the basin. When rainfall, rain distribution change and rain amount lost by evapo-transpiration and temperature increase, the runoff and discharge will change. The results of this model may serve as inputs for other models. 2. Water use simulation models - used for calculation water demand and supply of all water users in the basin, based on predicted demand of sectors for the next 50, 70, 100 years, in the context that water resources change together with climate change. The results will help the policy makers and managers on strategy development, integrated water resources management according to climate change scenarios. 3. Hydrodynamic model - will calculate and simulate the flood regime, the inundation areas, the salinity intrusion for the downstream plain with the context of water resources changing and sea level rise. 4. Secondary analysis models - will analyze the consequent impacts of the water resources changing to the regional socio-economical situation of the province and the basin, using GIS and some economy analytical models. Mostly MIKE11 and MIKEBASIN will be used. The computer software for these models and skills to handle this software are already available at IMH. Also the data for the Huong River Basin are available. The larger part of the work will consist of transforming the results into presentation materials that are understandable for the uneducated in the village. Participatory tools 1. The project will be structured a stakeholder action plan (SAP) designed by IMH in Hanoi and DoNRE in Hue. The SAP format, included in the annex of this report. The designed SAP format supports the planning and meaningful integration of various tools of the project. The SAP format supports the identification of relevant stakeholders and the further selection of stakeholders to be interviewed or to remain as informants all along in the project. The SAP format also facilitates meaningful modifications and further decisions in the course of the project. 2. Systematic communication with authorities, scientific institutes and development agencies working in the province and district will avoid overlap and create meaningful integration of activities. 3. A large meeting in the study commune will create the opportunity to introduce the project in the village and present the modeling results in accessible ways. 4. Semi-structured interviews (based on a list of issues be discussed) and informal talks will be conducted among a selection of relevant categories of stakeholders. These interviews and talks bring out worries, felt needs and possible measures. They help improving the quality of adaptation measures. They also generate ownership of the adaptation plan by the poor which reinforces their pro-active attitude and participation in the implementation and future maintenance of measures. Pilot questionnaires are
designed and tested in a small of interviews. The findings will shape the final design of questionnaires that will be used in more interviews. An estimated number of 10 interviews for each category will be held. The categories may be: poor fishermen, their wives, poor farmers, their wives, better-off villagers, government officials, relevant outsiders such as merchants. The SAP format supports the selection criteria and precisely adjusted times and places for interviews. 5. A decision making workshop is held with a small number of educated representatives for future scenario structuring and decision making about best adaptation measures. The supporting computer software DEFINITE is freely available. This workshop helps defining so far implicit problems. It clarifies the implicit criteria that stakeholders have in mind. It structures thinking about the future. It brings about compromise among stakeholders with different interests, opinions and power positions. It results in clear policy recommendations. This workshop requires both careful preparation and follow-up. The other participatory tools bring about this care. 6. Key stakeholders remain guided in their communication with their immediate social environment by the project staff. The local communication by key stakeholders helps maintaining the momentum of the project in the village and providing more information to the project staff. 7. A large meeting in the commune by the end of the project is organized to present the results and have discussions with the involved stakeholders.
3. Analyze, assess and process the collected data in context of climate change adaptations. 3. Assess the impacts of climate change on water resources by conducting water and climate change modeling for the Huong River Basin with the help of MIKE 11 and MIKE Basin or other suitable and available software. 1. Study and develop climate change scenarios for the study area: the overall consideration for Huong River Basin with focus on impacts to coastal area and district Phu Vang. 2. Apply the modeling method like MIKE 11 and MIKE Basin (or other) software for the Huong River Basin. 3. Study and assess the climate change impacts to water resources of the study area based on calculation results of stream-flow, evapo-transpiration, ground water, flood and drought, water quality, socioeconomical development trends. 4. Collect and analyze, in Hanoi, data on administrative and socio-economic circumstances of Phu Vang district. 1. Collect the administrative and socio-economical data (including development plan of main sectors: agriculture, irrigation, industry, energy, infrastructure, transportation; data on poverty and vulnerability), water management data (water use, supply and demand) of Phu Vang district in context and with consideration of whole Huong river basin. 2. Systematize, analyze and process collected data. 5. Collect and analyze in Hanoi, data on livelihoods and vulnerability to climate change of the poorest people in Phu Vang district. 1. Collect reports on vulnerability assessment to possible climate change impacts and disasters of the communities, particularly the poor people in Phu Vang district. 2. Collect other data on living conditions, livelihoods and vulnerability to the possible climate change impacts and disasters of the poorest people in the area. 3. Assess from these reports and other data the preparedness and coping capacity of the poor in Phu Vang and their felt needs of improvement or intervention. 4. Assess options and priorities for adaptation for the poor to impacts of climate change. 6. Conduct exploratory meetings with key-stakeholders in Thua Thien Hue province and Phu Vang district. 1. Introduce the project at provincial and district level.
2. Identify the vulnerable sectors and communities, determine the linkage between poverty and climate change impacts in this areas. 7. Develop and implement a stakeholder action plan (SAP) for Phu Vang district (see annex for SAP format). 1. Use SAP format to identify local and external stakeholders in the Phu Vang district with their roles, interests, power positions, opinions, responsibilities and social interactions. 2. Use SAP format to select stakeholders to be invited for the large gathering. 3. Use SAP format to select stakeholders for interviews. 4. Use SAP format to identify best places and times for interviews. 5. Use SAP format to select key-stakeholders for a technical workshop. 6. Use SAP format to foresee obstacles that may come up. 7. Use SAP format to foresee solutions to these problems. 8. Carry out a large stakeholder meeting in a coastal village to introduce the project to the local community and authority. 1. Identify stakeholders to be invited and prepare these people for the meeting. 2. Design a plan for the meeting. 3. Prepare materials to explain climate change impacts at the meeting. 4. Carry out the meeting. 5. Assess and report the meetings results. 9. Carry out semi-structured interviews with different categories of local and external stakeholders. 1. Prepare the questionnaire and subjects for interview. 2. Enlist interviewees according to different categories of stakeholders. 3. Carry out pilot interviews for each category of interviewees. 4. Analyze the feedback information from pilot interviews and improve questionnaires and methods if needed. 5. Carry out the interviews.
6. Assess the results of the interviews. 10. Organize a decision making workshop (technical workshop) with key-stakeholders in Phu Vang district using software for scenario structuring, multi-criteria analysis and decision making support. 1. Select and invite capable representatives of the poor fishermen, their wives, poor farmers, their wives, better-off villagers, government officials, relevant outsiders such as merchants, and external experts, with a maximum of twelve people. 2. Develop possible options of adaptation to climate change in the Phu Vang district, with focus on solutions of problems related to water resources and the coastal and lagoon system. 3. Send this preliminary documentation to invited key-stakeholders. 4. During the workshop, introduce and discuss the possible climate change adaptation scenarios. 5. Discuss with the participants potential involvement conflicts and potential for compromise. 6. Process the results with the help of a software package for multi-criteria analysis and future scenario structuring (DEFINITE or other). 7. If needed, again hold discussions and process with the software until the outcome has reached a optimal compromise for all. 8. Report the meeting. 11. Guide key-stakeholders in their communication with the social environment. 1. Keep contacts with the key-stakeholders from the technical workshop, guide them in communicating and working with their social environment about the workshop information and adaptation measures that they committed to implement. 2. Collect, analyze and process the feedback data and information. 12. Carry out second large stakeholder gathering in the village to conclude the projects first phase. 1. Prepare to the gathering: schedule and plan, prepare information and documentation using results of the interviews, the Workshop and feedbacks. 2. Conduct the gathering. 3. Report of the results of the gathering. 13. Summarize and finalize the first phase works and prepare the second phase.
1. Overview and revise all the project reports and results. 2. Develop the outline of the First Phase final report. Draft the report.. 3. Send the report for consultant's comments. 4. Finalize the report. 5. Submission and publication of the report.
Local authorities and some key project agents will be responsible for part of the survey, vulnerability and need assessment. Other project partners will be relevant MONREs departments, other research institutes and universities, representatives of relevant NGOs or from other projects related to climate change or disasters in the area (such as Hue offices of CECI, ICZM, IMOLA etc.). Specific links will be established with the authorities in TT Hue who are responsible for the Integrated Coastal Zone Management Strategy, prepared under the Netherlandssupported ICZM project. Links will also be established with the national and provincial disaster management system, including specifically the follow up to the National Disaster Management Strategy (NDMS). The preparation of a climate change adaptation strategy and Stakeholder Action Plan will build on the strategic framework and stakeholder consultation processes provided by the ICZM Strategy for Hue and the NDMS with the goal of enhancing these strategies to include climate change adaptation. The policy analysis and recommendations will also reflect these policy frameworks as well as key national development policies such as the National Water Strategy, Viet Nam CPRGS, decentralization and socialization.
7. Proceedings and report of the exploratory meetings in Hue and Phu Vang district. 8. Detailed stakeholder action plan (SAP) for Phu Vang district following SAP format with information about all possible stakeholders, their interrelationship, potential obstacles and solutions, to be changed, revised and improved in the process of implementation. 9. The list of participants, plan and materials for the large meeting in the village. The meetings report. 10. The interviewees list, the initial questionnaire and improved questionnaire after pilot interviews. Results and analysis of the interviews results. 11. Report of the decision making workshop with results of discussion and using the software package. Adaptation options to climate change impacts in the Phu Vang district. 12. Report and feedback data and information of the key-stakeholders from the technical workshop, after their communication and work with their own social environment. 13. Report of the second large stakeholders gathering in the village. 14. Progress reports and finance statements (of every 6-months period). Outline, draft and final version of the first phase final report. Recommendation and plan for the second phase.
Consultants
Involved Stakeholders
IMH, NCAP, MoNRE DoNRE, IMH IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE IMH DoNRE, IMH IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE, NCAP Key-stakeholders IMH, DoNRE, NCAP IMH IMH, DoNRE IMH IMH IMH, Stakeholders DoNRE, IMH IMH, DoNRE IMH IMH
2005 11 12
2006 6 7
10
11
12
2007 2
4.
5.
6. 7. 8. 9. 10 . 11 . 12 . 13 . 14
. 15 . 16 . 17 . 18 . 19 . 20 . 21 .
Workshop for future scenario structuring and decision making on policy recommendations
Guide key-stakeholders in communication with their social environment. Exploring feasibility of recommendations
Second progress report and finance statement Second large stakeholder gathering in the village to conclude the projects first phase Writing and submitting the first phases final report. Follow-up contacts with stakeholders. Writing the proposal for second phase. Preparing adaptation measures. Third progress report and finance statement