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Catalysts: successful adoption of MiFi hotspot devices; improved operational performance attracting analyst re-rating; almost no European exposure (95% of 2010 revenue in North Amer.)
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Investment Thesis
Novatel represents an excellent opportunity to invest in a growth company at a stock price below liquidation value. NVTL is a premiere player in the fast growing mobile hotspot industry which is currently benefiting from the 3G 4G upgrade cycle
Novatels MiFi product line is in the early stages of rollout and is the market share leader The MiFi4082 offers fast 4G WiMAX mobile broadband and allows up to five devices to get access to WiFi on the go Teamed up with the right partner in Verizon: 1) heavily promoting NVTL product, 2) best 4G network
Substantial, unrecognized value in Novatels M2M business. The wireless metering business is in its infancy; via its Enfora unit, NVTL has substantial exposure to this dynamic industry. This is a quiet growth engine that we believe is worth at least the current TEV of the entire company. At a $48.5 million TEV and $375 million of LTM growth revenues (0.1x LTM Rev.), Novatel represents one of the cheapest growth stocks in the market today
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Valuation Multiples based on Current Capitalization LTM 12 m onths 12 m onths 12 m onths Jun-30-2011A Dec-31-2011E Dec-31-2012E 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x NM NM 0.8x 0.8x 3.3x 7.0x 0.7x -
For the Fiscal Period Ending TEV/Total Revenue TEV/EBITDA P/Diluted EPS (Cash adj.) P/BV Price/Tang BV
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Sum of the parts: M2M Segment conservatively worth price paid (i.e. $42.5MM)
SOP = $8-$12 share price Novatel currenty trades for $3.86/share (not for long, in our opinion)
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Management is targeting 10% operating margins by 2013 Implies $40-$50 million of operating earnings power
At a conservative 15-17x LTM EPS in 2013, stock could be $10-$15/share within 24 months (2-4x current price)
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As Fridays price action shows (+16.6%), it is our experience that when the stock moves, it moves fast and powerfully
Latest Holders
Holder Royce & Associates, LLC Severn River Capital Management, LLC BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) Wellington Management Company L.L.P. The Vanguard Group, Inc. Diker Management, LLC Brightfield Capital Management, L.L.C.
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Potential Risks
Can the Company manage growth? Servicing very demanding OEM customer base (i.e. Verizon, others) Foreign competition over time Samsung MiFi product offering is competitive Further delays in 3G 4G rollout M2M is still in cash burn mode in order to grow the platform can management manage FCF well?
Always the risk of a poor acquisition when sitting on all that cash
Proliferation of embedded hotspot technology on the horizon when will smartphones have hotspot technology embedded that can meet the small size and battery demands? (2014 will see greater embedded penetration according to research done by InStat and ABI)
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Novatel Wireless
Novatel Wireless, Inc. is a leader in the design and development of intelligent wireless solutions based on 2G, 3G and 4G technologies providing wireless connectivity Serving the burgeoning wireless market Quality, reliable, innovative products that serve a broad audience Partnering with wireless network operators, distributors, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and vertical markets worldwide to offer wireless connectivity solutions An innovation leader First to introduce USB in North America Invented Intelligent Mobile Hotspot First with mobile broadband solutions for all 3G-4G platforms Significant technological and IP achievements Leader and innovator in mobile broadband solutions Smart M2M platforms with Enfora Strong patent portfolio: 42 issued and 60 patent applications pending
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Business Description
Novatel has two business segments Mobile Computing and M2M - each offering a suite of products to growth markets in the wireless space
Mobile Computing Products Segment Offers MiFi Intelligent Mobile Hotspots, which offer a connectivity option for Wi-Fi-enabled devices, such as the iPad, Kindle, tablets, PCs, MP3 players, and gaming devices USB and wireless PC-Card modems that are used to access wireless broadband networks Embedded modules, which are used in a range of computing devices, including laptop PCs, netbooks, and various other electronic products to provide wireless broadband access MobiLink mobile communications software suite, an object-oriented application that enables a user to gain access to connectivity features, such as SMS, multimedia messaging, and virtual private networking. M2M Products and Solutions Segment Provides asset-management solutions utilizing wireless technology and machine-to-machine (M2M) communications devices. It offers Spider MT, SA, and AT integrated solutions and accessories for monitoring and managing mobile and fixed assets, vehicle tracking and telemetric, and workforce tracking and management N4A software and design services that include software, as well as design services primarily for asset management solutions and custom product designs. This sub-segment serves transportation companies, industrial companies, manufacturers of medical devices and geographical-location aware devices, and providers of security systems.
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Verizon Wireless has heavily promoted the Novatel MiFi device on TV The more devices Verizon can sell, the more wireless customer contracts it can capture in order to leverage the fixed cost of its investment in its 4G network
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Customer Reviews
Customer Reviews (n=293) have been strong Average rating of 3.5/5 stars Biggest pros: Flies like the wind. Speed, Speed, Speed. Powerful. Easy to use Great signal and small Management estimates that Novatels MiFi suite of products are capturing approximately 70% of the market[1] Most frequent cons: Drops connection Not as fast as I had hoped. [These complaints are related to Verizons 4G rollout and are largely temporary network issues] Battery life *we think this has a positive side it will be a long time before embedded technology will reach the size requirements or battery life of Novatels wallet sized device]
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Source: Company presentation given at Cowen conference June 2, 2011; Q3E11 and Q411E based on CapitalIQ consensus estimates.
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Catalysts: successful adoption of MiFi hotspot devices; improved operational performance attracting analyst re-rating; almost no European exposure (95% of 2010 revenue in North Amer.)
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