NVTC Newsletter080704

NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter
Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Add B-9-12, Block B, Level 9, Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Newsletter for the week ending 04 July 2008
THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

Page
1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

What is the goal of trading? …… 2
Richard L. Muehlberg, full-time trader and online publisher
2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) …….. 3
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 4
ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) …….. 5
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 6
iii) Thailand SET Index (SETI) …….. 7

Additional SETI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 8
iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) …….. 9
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 10
v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) …….. 11
Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 12
3. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 13
Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 18
© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

1. Trading/Investment Related Articles:
What is the GOAL of Trading?
By Richard L. Muehlberg, full-time trader and online publisher
As a trader, if all you want to do is make money, then you probably won't make money. You'll fail.
How, then, do you make money? What should your goal be? I will answer based on my own
experience.
I was channel-flipping one day and found a TV documentary on a French free solo climber. He had
been free climbing for decades. He was an "old" guy at the time the scenes were shot. I think he
was in his late forties, early fifties. He climbed in a part of France known for its spectacular, bizarre
cliff formations. What struck me were his skill, focus...age ...and unique outlook on "winning".
According to Wikipedia, free solo climbing is an extreme sport that involves ascending a cliff face
without ropes or gear, other than your hands, feet, chalk and special shoes. As I understand this
passion, it evolved as a mental challenge over a physical one. Your body needs to be in good shape.
Your mind needs to be in better shape. The challenge is about skill, focus and achievement within
the context of extreme risk: If you fail, you can die.
You climb familiar routes rather than unfamiliar routes. You are exploring your own internal mental
world rather than the external physical world. Your skill and a route’s familiarity are safety factors.
Risk factors are represented well enough. The documentary’s storyline showed how this veteran
upset the younger climbers.
The younger climbers would scamper up a cliff face, vault over the uppermost edge and celebrate.
The "old" climber would get within inches of the uppermost edge, then climb back down. For him, his
skill and focus were his achievement: His goal. So, here he was, as "old" as he was, still climbing.
The younger ones seemed shaken, wondering when the cliffs would become too hard, mentally or
otherwise, for them to climb.
I know what it is to win as a trader. The climb feels good and, yet, can feel hollow. Celebrating can
set me up to lose. I can become overconfident and lazy. I can get sloppy and hit a wall. Result: My
worst trading days have repeatedly followed my best.
I acknowledge that solo climber, in part, for showing me how to win without feeling hollow. That solo
climber faced his wall. Long distance runners talk about the same wall: A mental and physical barrier
that can block them from going farther. A trader can talk about a wall: A dollar level that he or she
somehow cannot move past.
As a trader, maybe the "trick" is not to think about the money. Do not celebrate a "win". Think about
your skill. Just think about trading well. Trade to achieve the goal of trading well. The money will
come.

2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI)
Technical Analysis as of 04/07/2008
Basic Price information

Close: 1,134.14
Trend Analysis
MACD (-25.3277)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(1,179.4150), 30-day(1,220.4384), 60-day(1,248.4858), 100-day(1,263.7205).

SHORT-Term Trend: Very bearish
LONG-Term Trend: Very bearish
Support and Resistance Analysis

Immediate Support: 1,119.9700
Longer term Support: 1,119.9700
Immediate Resistance: 1,241.5900
Longer term Resistance: 1,305.0900
100 day SMA Resistance: 1,263.7205

Stochastic(6.0915) is currently oversold and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: No bar chart bullish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : No bar chart bearish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The 3-period ATR (18.1268) has increased therefore price action is more volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 270,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 198,467 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group
Technical rebound expected
Negative sentiments from rising inflation to the comical political instability have taken toll into the stock
market. The KLCI fell about 1200 points or 9% in 2 weeks. The KLCI easily broke the 1,200 points support
level and it is now at 1134.14. The aggressive downward movement has caused technical indicators to show
that the down trend has turned strong. The average prices is currently between 1,190 points and 1,250 points.
This means that the KLCI is oversold and this is also indicated on the Stochastic and RSI indicators. The daily
price movement on Friday suggests a price reversal. Therefore, a technical rebound is expected, IF there are
no negative follow ups to the current problems that causes negative sentiments. Support level is at 1,100
points while immediate resistance is at 1,190 points. In the long term, the KLCI is expected to continue to its
down trend to the major support level at 1,000 points.

ii) FT Singapore Straits Times Index (FTSTI)

Close: 2,892.54
Trend Analysis
MACD (-54.0673)
however, weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(2,939.8340), 30-day(3,037.7949), 60-day(3,103.5112), 100-day(3,059.1565).




Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: Engulfing Bull is detected today
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : Stochastic crossed above its %D today.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are contracting therefore price action is less volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 153,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 201,400 shares.
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group
Technical Rebound expected
The Singapore market was drifting sideways with a downward bias as worries about soaring crude oil price and
other commodities may lead to lack of confidence in the equities market. As of Friday, the STI closed at
2,892.54 points. The STI went to a low of 2,862.27 on Thursday and formed a Candlestick “Doji” pattern
which represents uncertainty and on Friday, that pattern turned into a “morning star” which represents a price
reversal. Therefore, a technical rebound is expected to happen. Furthermore, the STI is currently oversold in
the short term as Stochastic is below 30 and the average price range for STI is between 3,000 points and
3,100 points.
The current trend is still down and with strong momentum. This means that the technical rebound may be
small and down trend shall resume once the rally on the rebound is over. Resistance is expected to be at
3,000 points while support level, which is a major one, is at 2,750 points.

iii) Thailand SET Index

Close: 743.03
Trend Analysis
MACD (-17.3743)
strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(764.3870), 30-day(793.9280), 60-day(818.6135), 100-day(819.5076).


Immediate Support: 737.8300
Longer term Support: 737.8300
Immediate Resistance: 795.6700

Longer term Resistance: 886.5700
100 day SMA Resistance: 819.5076

200 day SMA Resistance: 826.4448
Stochastic(18.9786) is currently oversold and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Volume Analysis
Volume: 193,684,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 453,520,544 shares.
Volume strength is weak. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional SETI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group
More downside for the SETI
A string of street protests against the current government has caused confidence in the equity market to be
weak as well. The SETI is now back to its level where it was before the new government was formed. It is at
the major support level of 734 points. The SETI closed at 743.03 on Friday. The current trend is obviously
down and the momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are still indicating a strong down trend.
There are no indications of price reversal detected on the SETI as opposed to other markets. Therefore, more
downside for the SETI is expected and it may test the support level of 734 points again and most probably
would break below this level this time to continue the down trend. The next support level is at the
psychological 700 points level. Current resistance level is at 786 points.

iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Close: 21,423.82
Trend Analysis
MACD (-689.4087)
however, weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(22,152.2813), 30-day(23,312.4727), 60-day(24,224.2910), 100-

day(23,819.0879).



Stochastic(7.4065) is currently oversold and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Volume Analysis
Volume: 1,796,344,064 shares, 30-day average volume: 1,878,025,728 shares.
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group
Expected to test crucial 20,500 points support level.
Like the rest of the regional markets, especially the US, the HSI continues to slide down further and fell about
2,000 points or 10% in one month. The Hong Kong market is also affected by the weak performance in the
Shanghai equity market. As of Friday, the HSI closed at 21,423.82 points. The movement on Friday has
formed an uncertainty Japanese Candlestick pattern called “Doji” which indicates uncertainty. When price is
uncertain in a down trend, an upward rebound is expected.
The rebound may be short-lived because the current down trend is strong. Although an immediate rebound is
expected, it may face resistance at 22,300 points and later continue its down trend to test the crucial 20,500
points support level.

v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

Close: 11,288.5400
Change: + 73.0303
Volume: 148,755,008 shares
Trend Analysis
MACD (-307.4354)
however, weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(11,534.0557), 30-day(12,086.9482), 60-day(12,439.5352), 100-

day(12,403.4004).


Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: Long Lower Shadow was detected 2 days ago
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: Key Reversal UP detected today
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : Stochastic crossed above its %D 2 days ago.
Volatility Analysis
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are contracting therefore price action is less volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 148,755,008 shares, 30-day average volume: 240,913,168 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group
Price Reversal Up on DJI
Negative economic data and rising crude oil and commodities prices have put some fear on investors. The DJI
continues to fall about 1,000 points or 9% in one month. The current trend is strongly down and although it
has been heavily oversold, a technical rebound has yet to be seen. The DJI even broke below the crucial
support level at 11,700 points. The market brings a little cheer for investors just the day before the
Independence Day holiday because it closed up and formed a price reversal up pattern.
Can the reversal turn into an upward rally. It may happen because the DJI is heavily oversold and has been in
this position for weeks. The average price range for the DJI is between 12,100 and 12,400 points. The DJI
closed at 11,288.54 points last Thursday. However, the upward rebound may be small because the down trend
is strong with a resistance at 11,600 points. Support level is expected to be at 10,600 points.

3. Regional Traders Education Events this week
MALAYSIA

SINGAPORE

HONG KONG

________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) and NextView Traders Club (NVTC) are NOT licensed
investment advisors. This publication, which is generally available to members of NVTC, falls under Media Advice provisions. These
analysis notes are based on our experience of applying technical analysis to the market and are designed to be used as a tutorial showing
how technical analysis can be applied to a chart example based on recent trading data. This newsletter is a tool to assist you in your
personal judgment. It is not designed to replace your Licensed Financial Consultant, your Stockbroker. It has been prepared without
regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because readers come from diverse
backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek advice from
your broker or other investment advisors as appropriate before taking any action. The decision to trade and the method of trading is for
the reader alone to decide. The author, contributors and publisher expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, whether the
purchase of this publication or not, in respect of anything and of the consequences of anything done or omitted to be done by any such
person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this publication. Neither NextView Sdn Bhd
(including offices in other countries) nor its officers, employees and agents, will be liable for any loss or damage incurred by any person
directly or indirectly as a result of reliance on the information contained in this publication. The information contained in this newsletter is
copyright and for the sole use of NVTC Members. It cannot be circulated to other readers without the permission of the publisher. This is
not a newsletter of stock tips. Case study trades are notional and analyzed in real time on a weekly basis. NextView Sdn Bhd does not
receive any commission or benefit from the trading activities undertaken by readers, or any benefit or fee from any of the stocks reviewed
in the newsletter. NextView Sdn Bhd is an independent financial education organization and research is supported by NVTC annual
membership fees.
OFFICES;
Head Office Malaysia: B-9-12, Block B, Level 9 Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Singapore: 5 Shenton Way,
#02-03/05 UIC Building, Singapore 068808. Thailand: The Millennia Tower, 18th Floor, Unit 1806, 62 Langsuan Road, Lumphini, Pathumwan Bangkok,
10330, Thailand. Hong Kong: Room B, 16/F, Crawford Tower, 99 Jervois Street, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. China: 98 Liuhe Road, 16A GangLu
HuangPu Center Building, Shanghai 200001

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NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter

Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Newsletter for the week ending 04 July 2008

THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

iii) Thailand SET Index (SETI) …….. 7

Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 18

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 2

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(1,179.4150), 30-day(1,220.4384), 60-day(1,248.4858), 100-day(1,263.7205).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 3

100 day SMA Resistance: 1,263.7205

Stochastic(6.0915) is currently oversold and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

Technical rebound expected

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 4

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(2,939.8340), 30-day(3,037.7949), 60-day(3,103.5112), 100-day(3,059.1565).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 5

100 day SMA Resistance: 3,059.1565

Stochastic(12.1421) is currently oversold and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

Technical Rebound expected

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 6

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(764.3870), 30-day(793.9280), 60-day(818.6135), 100-day(819.5076).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 7

100 day SMA Resistance: 819.5076

Stochastic(18.9786) is currently oversold and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

More downside for the SETI

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 8

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(22,152.2813), 30-day(23,312.4727), 60-day(24,224.2910), 100-

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 9

100 day SMA Resistance: 23,819.0879

Stochastic(7.4065) is currently oversold and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Expected to test crucial 20,500 points support level.

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 10

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(11,534.0557), 30-day(12,086.9482), 60-day(12,439.5352), 100-

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 11

100 day SMA Resistance: 12,403.4004

Stochastic(10.5168) is currently oversold and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

Price Reversal Up on DJI

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 12

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 13

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 16

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 17

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 18

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