MDM4U – Mathematics in

Data Management:
As unemployment rate rises the rate of crime will
increase.
Stephanie Lui and Jennifer Yeung
May 2008
INTRODUCTION
CRIME RATE IN CANADA

According to recent statistics from StatCan, Canada’s crime rate has been at its lowest point in 25 years for
the year of 2006. From 2005, the crime rate has dropped 3 percent in total. In all provinces, homicide rates
have been on the decline since the early 90s. Although the general crime rate in Canada has increased, there
have been more cases of youth coming in contact with the police for offenses. However, the number of
charges is still lower in 2006 compared to the year before.
In the above map, you can see the distribution of the crime rates through the 10 provinces and 3 territories
of Canada. The territories all have darker shades of red, meaning that crime rates in those areas are much
higher than the ones with lighter shades like Ontario or Quebec. The province of Ontario sees the lowest
crime rate – consecutively topping the list for the 3rd year

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN CANADA

In 1993, the unemployment rate in Canada reached its peak of 10.8% and then declined to 6.1% in 2001.
However, in 2003, it increased again. Over the past 12 months, employment has increased steadily.
However, as more and more people entered the labour market, the number of people who are unemployed
has increased. Ken Georgetti, president of the Canadian Labour Congress says,

“Over and above the self-employment figures, the continuous bleeding of the manufacturing
sector and the steep rise in youth unemployment further raise the spectre of a looming
economic slowdown. More than ever, the government should consider the labour movement’s
practical proposals to address sustained creation of good jobs.”

It seems that in the recent increase of jobs, they were not paid employment but self-employment that are
most often insecure and low-paying, Unemployment rate among youth is also increasing where young adults
who joined the labour market could not find any jobs. In addition, an interesting point is that the crime rate
varies from coast to coast. From history, the East has had lower crime rates than the West.
THESIS BACKGROUND
We began this year by exploring what interested us. From chapter 2.1 in the textbook, we compiled a
personal interest inventory and compared our results with other classmates. After choosing our favourite
academic and non-academic subjects from a list, we ranked them in order and finally, used an index to
measure the similarity between ourselves. Eventually, both of us ended up together since our interests were
fairly similar. Here are our mind maps:

For this project, we wanted to do something about teenagers and their lifestyle. We first thought of doing a
project on Facebook and Myspace. We began to go on the Internet to see what we could find. However,
after conducting some research, we concluded that these websites were still relatively new and it would be
difficult for us to find more in-depth statistics on them.

Eventually we moved on to research about food, especially the significance of fast food in our lives. We
decided that since we are in Hong Kong, we will include both Western and Chinese food specifically
McDonalds and Hong Kong styled cafes. We believe that the two represents an average teenager’s eating
habits in Hong Kong. Over the course of researching for our project, we found a lot of information on the
calories of different foods from Western and Chinese styled fast food stores. Even though the topic was very
interesting, we thought that just focusing our project on the food we eat did not give us enough opportunities
to use what we have learned in Data Management. Hence, after some more research and some more
discussion, we decided that we would like to know more about a teenager’s daily habits and how breakfast
may influence their health overall. We went on the Statistics Canada website and began to search for
information that would help us with our topic. We found only a few pieces of information that would be
helpful to us.

Again, we thought that the topic did not allow us to fully use the knowledge we have gained in the Data
Management course. We went back to understanding what topics would satisfy our interests. We discussed
for a while and found out that both of us were concerned about crime rates in Canada. The topic is pretty
important to us because after this year, our senior year in CDNIS, we will be going off to universities in
Canada by ourselves. A lot of parents feel uncomfortable to let their children go away to study
independently. Particularly when we are walking to school, anything could happen. Therefore, we figured we
would do something about the crime rate in Canada. It seems that Hong Kong is one of the safest cities
where not much would happen on the streets at midnight and it is relatively safer than other places. Of
course, Canada is not the same as Hong Kong. So we wanted to know about crime rates and what affects
it. Eventually, we thought that the unemployment rate and income level could influence the crime rate of a
place. Finally, we came to a conclusion that we would like to know if there is a direct correlation between
crime rate and the unemployment rate in Canada.
 THESIS QUESTION:

How does the unemployment rate and income level affect the crime rate in Canada?

We think that the unemployment rate does affect the crime rate in Canada because when people do not
have enough money to sustain their daily lifestyle they tend to seek other ways to earn money, sometimes
involving illegal activity or methods. Also, with an unstable unemployment rate in Canada at the moment, it is
possible that people will go against the law to support themselves and possibly their family.

FINAL THESIS :

VARIABLES:
Crime Rate: (measured by the number of Criminal Code incidents reported to the police)
Unemployment Rate:
Property Crime:
Crimes of Violence:
Criminal Code offenses:

DATA
RAW DATA + ANALYSIS OF DATA

Unemployment/Income

To look for information on our topic, Statistics Canada became the website we frequented the most. On this
website were numerous pieces of information that became helpful to us. We especially used the statistics on
the labour force in Canada and the employment/unemployment rates that were collected over certain
periods of time.

We first decided to find out more about the employment rates in Canada to further understand the labour
force of the country. From Statistics Canada, we obtained monthly statistics on the unemployment rate.
 Unemployment Rate
8
7
Unemployment rate (%)

6
5
y = -0.0383x + 7.081
4 R² = 0.34507
3
2
1
0
2005/01
2005/02
2005/03
2005/04
2005/05
2005/06
2005/07
2005/08
2005/09
2005/10
2005/11
2005/12
2006/01
2006/02
2006/03
2006/04
2006/05
2006/06
2006/07
2006/08
2006/09
2006/10
2006/11
2006/12
2007/01
2007/02
2007/03
2007/04
2007/05
Time (Year/Month)

We graphed the statistics using Excel and created a trend line with the equation. As the equation suggests:

y = -0.0383x + 7.081

The trend is a negative correlation meaning that the unemployment rate has gone through a decline.
However, the R2 value shows that this trend line cannot properly fit to the points, as the ideal value should be
closer to 1. But overall, this shows us that the unemployment rate in Canada is decreasing.

Since the r-value was so low, we decided to analyze the data by the distance between the data points and
the line of best fit. This is called the residual value and is calculated by subtracting the calculated value from
the actual value
R 1 = y 1 – [ a(x 1 ) + b ]
where a and b are the slope and the intercept of the line. We graphed another set of statistics:
unemployment rate over a longer period of time (1990-2005) and made a residual plot.
 Unemployment Rate from 1990-2005 Scatter Plot

12
11
10
9
8
7
6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year
2
0
-2

1990 1992 1994 1996

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year
unemployment_rate = -0.25794year + 523.9; r2 = 0.62

From the residual plot above, we can see that the points are fairly close to the line of best fit with the point
from 1990 being a bit further away than the other ones. Overall, the two graphs shows that less and less
people are getting unemployed.

2500
Labour force (Employment)
# of people employed (in thousands)

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years
45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years
Next, we moved on to look at the labour force in Canada to see which age group accounts for the most part
of the labour force. From Statistics Canada, we found a survey conducted about the labour force in Canada.
It included both unemployment and employment. So, we graphed the variable of employment first, to see
which age group is the biggest. From the above histogram, we can see that the orange bars reach the
highest and therefore, we can conclude that the largest age group in the labour force is from 40 to 44 years
old. Following closely is the age group of 45 to 49 and then 35 to 39. Basically, the labour force is mostly
made up of people from ages 40 to around 50.

250
Labour Force (Unemployed)
# of people unemployed (in thousands)

200

150

100

50

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years
45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years
Next, we looked at the unemployed people in the labour force. Unemployment is the:
“number of persons who, during the reference week, were without work, had actively looked for work in the
past four weeks, and were available for work. Those persons on layoff or who had a new job to start in four
weeks or less are considered unemployed.” (Statistics Canada)
From the above, it shows that the age group represented by the dark blue colour is the most unemployed.
Looking at the legend, this turns out to the 15 to 19 year olds. Next are the 20 to 24 year olds, and then 40
to 44 year olds. In general, the histogram shows us that people aged 15 to 24 make up a large portion of the
unemployed population. This could be explained because of the continuation of education or the level of
education needed for regular office jobs.
 Distribution of total income of individuals
(2005)
Under $5,000
$5,000 to $9,999
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $19,999
$20,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $29,999
$30,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $39,999
$40,000 to $44,999
$45,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $54,999
$55,000 to $59,999
$60,000 to $64,999
$65,000 to $69,999
$70,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $79,999
$80,000 to $84,999
$85,000 to $89,999
$90,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $124,999
$125,000 to $149,999
$150,000 and over

After obtaining the distribution of the total income of individuals in Canada in the year 2005 from Statistics
Canada, we put it into a pie graph to visually show the percentages of each income group. Obviously, the
dark blue colour takes up the most area, meaning that there are more people who have an income under
$5000 than any other levels of income. From the graph, we see that around half of the population earns less
than around $25,000.

We also did some calculations on weight mean. We realized that after $89,999, the income levels were not
equally split, so we used the statistics up to $89,999.
Income Frequency (f) Midpoint (m) fxm
Under $4,999 12.4 2499.5 30993.8
$5,000 to $9,999 10.3 7499.5 77244.85
$10,000 to $14,999 10.8 12499.5 134994.6
$15,000 to $19,999 9.8 17499.5 171495.1
$20,000 to $24,999 8 22499.5 179996
$25,000 to $29,999 7.1 27499.5 195246.45
$30,000 to $34,999 6.8 32499.5 220996.6
$35,000 to $39,999 6 37499.5 224997
$40,000 to $44,999 4.9 42499.5 208247.55
$45,000 to $49,999 4 47499.5 189998
$50,000 to $54,999 3.3 52499.5 173248.35
$55,000 to $59,999 3 57499.5 172498.5
$60,000 to $64,999 2.3 62499.5 143748.85
$65,000 to $69,999 1.8 67499.5 121499.1
$70,000 to $74,999 1.8 72499.5 130499.1
$75,000 to $79,999 1.3 77499.5 100749.35
$80,000 to $84,999 1.1 82499.5 90749.45
$85,000 to $89,999 0.9 87499.5 78749.55
We calculated the weighted mean according to what we have been taught.
Sum of all f x m 2645952.2
Sum of all f 95.6
Weighted Mean 27677.32427
We took the sum of (f x m) and divided it by the sum of all the frequencies to get the weighted mean. The
final answer $27,677.32, represents the mean (or average) income. So, we can say that the average income
an individual earns is approx. $27,677. However, we did not consider the higher income groups, so we
cannot take this answer as the definite average income.

Distribution of income
14
12
10
Frequency

8
6
4
2
0
$0 to $5,000
$5,000 to $9,999
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $19,999
$20,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $29,999
$30,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $39,999
$40,000 to $44,999
$45,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $54,999
$55,000 to $59,999
$60,000 to $64,999
$65,000 to $69,999
$70,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $79,999
$80,000 to $84,999
$85,000 to $89,999
$90,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $124,999
$125,000 to $149,999
$150,000 and over
Income
Another way to analyze the piece of information was to put it in a histogram. When we created a frequency
distribution in which the frequency is the percentage of the people who earn a specific income, the
histogram showed a right-skewed distribution. This meant that there are more people who fall in the lower
half of the incomes.
 Total income of individuals
35000

30000

25000
Income ($)

20000
Average income
15000 Median income

10000

5000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year

Average Income in Individuals Scatter Plot

33200

33000

32800

32600

32400

32200

32000

31800

31600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year
Average_Income = 248.57Year - 4.6548e+05; r2 = 0.88
 Distribution of income
14
12
10
Frequency

8
6
4
2
0
$0 to $5,000
$5,000 to $9,999
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $19,999
$20,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $29,999
$30,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $39,999
$40,000 to $44,999
$45,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $54,999
$55,000 to $59,999
$60,000 to $64,999
$65,000 to $69,999
$70,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $79,999
$80,000 to $84,999
$85,000 to $89,999
$90,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $124,999
$125,000 to $149,999
$150,000 and over
Income
When we created a frequency distribution in which the frequency is the percentage of the people who earn a
specific income, the histogram showed a right-skewed distribution. This meant that there are more people
who fall in the lower half of the incomes.

Unemployment Rate vs Crime Rate from 1990-2005 Scatter Plot

11

10

0.080 0.095 0.100 0.085 0.090 0.105 0.110 0.115

crime_rate
unemployment_rate = 128crime_rate - 3.5; r2 = 0.72

u
 12000
Rates of Criminal Code in Canada

10000
Rate per 100,000 population

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1977

1987

1997
Year

Total, Criminal Code, excluding traffic Total, crimes of violence

Total, property crimes Total, other Criminal Code

700000
Total Criminal Incidents

600000

500000
Number of Incidents

400000
Youths
charged
300000
Adults
200000 charged

100000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
 4500
Youth Crime 1990-2005
4000

3500
Rate per 100,000 population

3000

2500 Violence
2000
Robbery
1500
Property
1000
Drugs
500

Year

Youth Unemployment Rate vs Youth Crime rate (2000-2005) Scatter Plot

13.5

13.0

12.5

12.0

11.5

3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800

Crime_rate
Unemployment_rate = 0.000977Crime_rate + 8.97; r2 = 0.56
Unemployment rate vs Property Crime rate (1990-2005) Scatter Plot

6500

6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

7 8 9 10 11
Unemployment_rate
1200
800
400
0
-400
7 8 9 10 11
Unemployment_rate
Property_Crime_rate_per_100000 = 448Unemployment_rate + 9.1e+02; r2 = 0.77

Unemployment rate vs Crimes of Violence (1990-2005) Scatter Plot

1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
7 8 9 10 11
Unemployment_Rate
40
20
0
-20

7 8 9 10 11
Unemployment_Rate
Crimes_of_Violence = 27.5Unemployment_Rate + 7.6e+02; r2 = 0.87