May 2010
Africa 500000 ha
This document is a template with assumptions
Please ensure that the assumptions are correct for your specific project
Pieter Hoff
phoff@aquaproholland.com
+31 654 340 410
Wout Hoff
NOTES
In the 'sensitivity analysis' the columns 'conservative' and 'optimistic' are not interactive. Only the column 'base' is interactive with 'input and output'
values marked in blue are calculated automatically; do not amend these cells.
values marked in red are taken from the sheet 'Notes and Assumptions'; do not amend these cells.
Sheets
Front page
Notes and Assumptions
Input and Output
Workings
Annex 1 - Timber prices
Annex 2 - Bushes harvest prices
Annex 3 - Carbon credit prices
Annex 4 - FCF
Annex 5 - Plant scheme
Annex 6 - Employment
Cover page
Guidance note and regional assumptions for cost and employment calculation
Overview of key project information (financials, planning)
Financial model
Graphical presentation of development of timber prices over project duration
Graphical presentation of development of bushes harvest prices over project duration
Graphical presentation of development of carbon credit prices over project duration
Graphical presentation of development of Free Cash Flow
Graphical presentation of potential planting scheme for 1 ha
Graphical presentation of manpower needed during project lifetime
Model, calculations, values and assumptions have been validated by Forestry Service Group (www.forestryservicegroup.com)
ASSUMPTIONS
Units
Single value
This sheet lists the values which are market red in the Input and Output sheet.
Region
Category
Annual inflation rate costs
Cost of land (if freehold)
Land lease
Value of land at end of project
Land preparation cost
Custodial management cost
Costprice labour
Custodial management cost
Maintenance cost trees and bushes - year 2-8
Maintenance cost trees and bushes - from year 9
Harvesting cost timber - harvest until yr 20
Harvesting cost timber - harvest from yr 21
Harvesting cost bushes annual production (fruit/nuts)
Portfolio model
Start of planting
Project 1
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Project 7
Project 8
Project 9
Project 10
Number of projects
Groasis
Africa
value
%
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/day
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/ha
Europe
5.7%
100
0.10
2500
40
80
10
100
200
100
250
210
500
2.1%
350
70
10000
140
230
60
350
700
350
750
510
1500
USA
fix cost
2.2%
250
50
7500
120
200
50
300
600
300
650
450
1300
days
20
50
2
3
50
100
50
150
150
300
5
10
5
10
6
20
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
10
OUTPUT
Project size
Project duration
Cost of capital
Tax rate
Net Present Value (NPV)
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Capital employed
Payback (break even)
Tonnes of CO2 captured over project lifetime
Cost per tonne of CO2 (investment only)
NPV generated per tonne of CO2
Employment generated for 35 years (average)
Groasis
Units
ha
years
%
%
million USD
%
million USD
years
million tonnes
USD/tonne
USD/tonne
FTE
1 Project
50,000
35
10%
20%
1,249
18.7%
(547)
9
17.5
31.25
71.36
11,417
INPUT
Project dates and currency
Start of planting
Planting in year
Removing of waterboxes in year
First bushes (fruit/nuts) harvest in year
Last hardwood harvest in year
Units
year
Location of project
Currency
Annual inflation rate - costs
Cost of capital
2011
1
2
5
35
Africa
USD
5.70%
10.0%
Investment
Ownership type of land
Cost of land (if freehold)
Land lease
Number of ha
Value of land at end of project
USD/ha
USD/ha/yr
USD/ha
Baseline study
Land preparation cost
Custodial management cost
Number of trees per ha
Number of trees planted
of which softwood
of which hardwood
Number of bushes per ha
Number of bushes planted
Number of m2 per tree/bush
USD
USD/ha
USD/ha
%
%
m2
USD/box
%
USD/box
USD/tree
USD/bush
minutes
USD/day
USD/tree or bush
USD/waterbox
USD/ha
USD/tree
USD/bush
USD/ha
USD/ha
Groasis
Single value
USD
USD
freehold
100
0.10
50,000
2,500
125,000
40
80
2,667
133,350,000
80%
20%
1,333
66,650,000
2.5
lease
10%
5
10%
0.00
100,000,000
0.20
0.25
1.5
10
0.03
0.01
75
0.26
0.31
693
413
150,000
1,050,000
USD/yr
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/ha
USD/ha
250
210
500
minutes
USD/waterbox
USD/waterbox
USD/ha
2
0.04
0.05
103
2%
USD
USD
USD/ha
USD/ha
25,000
10,000
2.0
4.0
%
%
%
%
90%
95%
95%
14.4%
USD/m3
USD/m3
%
400
150
50%
1.0%
% of trees
m3
10
36%
0.30
% of trees
m3
20
17%
0.70
% of trees
m3
25
16%
1.00
% of trees
m3
35
16%
1.00
Groasis
712,500
100
200
100
5
2.00
3.0%
0.75
2.0%
kg
% per year
USD/kg
yes
year
tonnes/ha
t of CO2
USD
%
%
2
10
1
6.00
6%
80%
30.0%
60.0%
10.0%
USD
25
1
1.0%
10
USD
7.0%
USD
Tax
Corporate tax
20.0%
linear
years
USD
OUTPUT - DETAIL
Employment
In year 1
Baseline study
Land preparation
Custodial management
Planting
Carbon - Upfront admin and verification costs
Units
Single value
hr
hr
hr
hr
hr
1,280
800,000
1,200,000
12,500,000
4,800
hr
hr
hr
hr
hr
hr
hr
hr
hr
hr
hr
hr
8,800
70,000,000
16,666,667
28,000,000
54,000,000
240,000,000
1,440,000
684,000
389,880
389,880
4,000
163,200
hr
213,126,253
hr
FTE
639,378,760
11,417
Groasis
10
year of operation
Units
1
2011
Total
2
2012
3
2013
4
2014
5
2015
6
2016
7
2017
8
2018
9
2019
10
2020
11
2021
12
2022
13
2023
14
2024
15
2025
16
2026
17
2027
18
2028
Cash flow
Investment costs
Cost of land - freehold
Baseline study
Land preparation
Custodial management
Waterbox costs for trees
Waterbox costs for bushes
Planting costs trees
Planting costs bushes
Carbon - Upfront admin (only if CDM = yes)
Carbon - Upfront control (only if CDM = yes)
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
(5,000)
(132)
(2,114)
(4,228)
(317,140)
(158,510)
(36,647)
(21,839)
(159)
(1,110)
(5,000)
(132)
(2,114)
(4,228)
(317,140)
(158,510)
(36,647)
(21,839)
(159)
(1,110)
kUSD
(546,879)
(546,879)
O&M costs
Land lease - leasehold
kUSD
Overhead and management
kUSD
Custodial management
kUSD
Maintenance year 2-8
kUSD
Maintenance from year 9
kUSD
Removal of waterboxes
kUSD
Trees - first partial harvest
kUSD
Trees - second partial harvest
kUSD
Trees - third partial harvest
kUSD
Trees - final harvest
kUSD
Bushes - annual harvesting
kUSD
Unforeseen
kUSD
FSC - Admin in year before first harvest
kUSD
FSC - Project lifetime admin and control costs kUSD
Carbon - Project lifetime admin costs (only if CDM
kUSD
= yes)
Carbon - Project lifetime control costs (only if CDM
kUSD
= yes)
(78,750)
(547,345)
(92,926)
(500,882)
(5,772)
(7,834)
(6,477)
(6,820)
(11,872)
(2,648,063)
(78,135)
(41)
(985)
(11,053)
(22,105)
(753)
(15)
(106)
(211)
(796)
(5,586)
(11,172)
(5,772)
(467)
(112)
(223)
(841)
(5,905)
(11,809)
(371)
(118)
(236)
(889)
(6,241)
(12,482)
(392)
(125)
(250)
(940)
(6,597)
(13,194)
(32,985)
(1,074)
(132)
(264)
(994)
(6,973)
(13,946)
(34,865)
(1,136)
(139)
(279)
(1,050)
(7,370)
(14,741)
(36,852)
(1,200)
(147)
(295)
(1,110)
(7,791)
(15,581)
(38,953)
(1,269)
(156)
(312)
(1,173)
(8,235)
(8,235)
(41,173)
(1,176)
(41)
(165)
(329)
(1,240)
(8,704)
(8,704)
(7,834)
(43,520)
(1,400)
(17)
(174)
(348)
(1,311)
(9,200)
(9,200)
(46,001)
(1,314)
(18)
(184)
(368)
(1,386)
(9,725)
(9,725)
(48,623)
(1,389)
(19)
(194)
(389)
(1,465)
(10,279)
(10,279)
(51,394)
(1,468)
(21)
(206)
(411)
(1,548)
(10,865)
(10,865)
(54,324)
(1,552)
(22)
(217)
(435)
(1,636)
(11,484)
(11,484)
(57,420)
(1,640)
(23)
(230)
(459)
(1,730)
(12,139)
(12,139)
(60,693)
(1,734)
(24)
(243)
(486)
(1,828)
(12,831)
(12,831)
(64,153)
(1,833)
(26)
(257)
(513)
(1,933)
(13,562)
(13,562)
(67,809)
(1,937)
(27)
(271)
(542)
kUSD
(4,019,061)
(1,085)
(24,129)
(19,281)
(20,380)
(55,186)
(58,332)
(61,657)
(65,171)
(60,528)
(71,942)
(67,597)
(71,450)
(75,522)
(79,827)
(84,377)
(89,187)
(94,270)
(99,644)
Income
Value of land
Waterboxes residual value
Trees - first interim harvest
Trees - second interim harvest
Trees - third interim harvest
Trees - final harvest
Bushes - annual harvest
Carbon credits income
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
125,000
1,193,141
1,460,750
4,167,142
12,274,980
8,131,713
280,946
2,697
2,858
3,030
113,692
3,212
119,445
3,404
125,489
3,609
131,838
3,825
138,509
4,055
1,193,141
145,518
4,298
152,881
4,556
160,617
4,829
168,744
5,119
177,283
5,426
186,253
5,752
195,677
6,097
205,579
6,463
215,981
6,850
Total income
kUSD
27,633,673
2,697
2,858
3,030
116,904
122,849
129,097
135,664
142,564
1,342,957
157,437
165,446
173,863
182,709
192,005
201,774
212,041
222,831
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
kUSD
9,475,443
(4,330,190)
5,145,253
(1,895,089)
(547,964)
(547,964)
-
(21,432)
(547,964)
(569,397)
-
(16,422)
(569,397)
(585,819)
-
(17,350)
(585,819)
(603,169)
-
61,718
(603,169)
(541,451)
-
64,518
(541,451)
(476,934)
-
67,441
(476,934)
(409,493)
-
70,493
(409,493)
(339,000)
-
82,037
(339,000)
(256,964)
-
1,271,015
(256,964)
1,014,052
(202,810)
89,840
89,840
(17,968)
93,996
93,996
(18,799)
98,341
98,341
(19,668)
102,882
102,882
(20,576)
107,628
107,628
(21,526)
112,588
112,588
(22,518)
117,771
117,771
(23,554)
123,188
123,188
(24,638)
7,580,355
854,575
66,038,770
(547,964)
(498,149)
(547,964)
(21,432)
(17,713)
(569,397)
(16,422)
(12,338)
(585,819)
(17,350)
(11,850)
(603,169)
61,718
38,322
(541,451)
64,518
36,418
(476,934)
67,441
34,608
(409,493)
70,493
32,885
(339,000)
82,037
34,792
(256,964)
1,068,205
411,839
811,241
71,872
25,191
883,114
75,197
23,960
958,311
Tax
Earnings before tax
Tax loss carry forward
Taxable income
Total Tax
Free cash flow
Discounted FCF
Cumulative FCF (not discounted)
NPV
IRR
Capital employed
Payback
Groasis
78,673
22,789
1,036,983
82,305
21,674
1,119,289
86,102
20,612
1,205,391
90,070
19,602
1,295,461
94,217
18,640
1,389,677
98,550
17,725
1,488,228
1,248,738
18.7%
(546,879)
9
19
2029
20
2030
21
2031
22
2032
23
2033
24
2034
25
2035
26
2036
27
2037
28
2038
29
2039
30
2040
31
2041
32
2042
33
2043
34
2044
35
2045
(2,043)
(14,335)
(14,335)
(71,675)
(2,048)
(29)
(287)
(573)
(2,159)
(15,152)
(15,152)
(6,477)
(75,760)
(2,294)
(30)
(303)
(606)
(2,282)
(16,016)
(16,016)
(80,078)
(2,288)
(32)
(320)
(641)
(2,412)
(16,929)
(16,929)
(84,643)
(2,418)
(34)
(339)
(677)
(2,550)
(17,893)
(17,893)
(89,467)
(2,556)
(36)
(358)
(716)
(2,695)
(18,913)
(18,913)
(94,567)
(2,702)
(38)
(378)
(757)
(2,849)
(19,991)
(19,991)
(6,820)
(99,957)
(2,992)
(40)
(400)
(800)
(3,011)
(21,131)
(21,131)
(105,655)
(3,019)
(42)
(423)
(845)
(3,183)
(22,335)
(22,335)
(111,677)
(3,191)
(45)
(447)
(893)
(3,364)
(23,609)
(23,609)
(118,043)
(3,372)
(47)
(472)
(944)
(3,556)
(24,954)
(24,954)
(124,771)
(3,565)
(50)
(499)
(998)
(3,759)
(26,377)
(26,377)
(131,883)
(3,768)
(53)
(528)
(1,055)
(3,973)
(27,880)
(27,880)
(139,401)
(3,983)
(56)
(558)
(1,115)
(4,199)
(29,469)
(29,469)
(147,346)
(4,210)
(59)
(589)
(1,179)
(4,439)
(31,149)
(31,149)
(155,745)
(4,450)
(62)
(623)
(1,246)
(4,692)
(32,925)
(32,925)
(164,623)
(4,703)
(66)
(658)
(1,317)
(4,959)
(34,801)
(34,801)
(11,872)
(174,006)
(5,209)
(70)
(696)
(1,392)
(105,324)
(117,934)
(117,673)
(124,380)
(131,470)
(138,963)
(153,841)
(155,257)
(164,106)
(173,460)
(183,348)
(193,798)
(204,845)
(216,521)
(228,863)
(241,908)
(267,807)
226,910
7,261
1,460,750
238,391
7,697
250,454
8,159
263,127
8,648
276,441
9,167
290,429
9,717
4,167,142
305,125
10,300
320,564
10,919
336,785
11,574
353,826
12,268
371,729
13,004
390,539
13,784
410,300
14,611
431,061
15,488
452,873
16,417
475,789
17,402
125,000
12,274,980
499,863
18,447
234,171
1,706,838
258,613
271,775
285,609
300,146
4,482,568
331,483
348,358
366,094
384,734
404,323
424,912
446,550
469,291
493,191
12,918,291
128,848
128,848
(25,770)
1,588,904
1,588,904
(317,781)
140,940
140,940
(28,188)
147,395
147,395
(29,479)
154,139
154,139
(30,828)
161,183
161,183
(32,237)
4,328,727
4,328,727
(865,745)
176,226
176,226
(35,245)
184,252
184,252
(36,850)
192,634
192,634
(38,527)
201,386
201,386
(40,277)
210,525
210,525
(42,105)
220,067
220,067
(44,013)
230,028
230,028
(46,006)
240,428
240,428
(48,086)
251,283
251,283
(50,257)
12,650,484
12,650,484
(2,530,097)
103,078
16,854
1,591,306
Groasis
1,271,124
188,944
2,862,429
112,752
15,236
2,975,181
117,916
14,486
3,093,098
123,311
13,771
3,216,409
128,946
13,091
3,345,355
3,462,982
319,619
6,808,337
140,981
11,829
6,949,318
147,401
11,243
7,096,719
154,107
10,686
7,250,826
161,109
10,156
7,411,935
168,420
9,652
7,580,355
176,053
9,172
7,756,408
184,023
8,716
7,940,431
192,342
8,282
8,132,773
201,026
7,869
8,333,799
10,120,387
360,125
18,454,186
year of portfolio
FCF
Waterbox investment
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Project 7
Project 8
Project 9
Project 10
Total EBIT
Units
kUSD
1
2011
Total
(475,650)
5
2015
6
2016
(475,650)
kUSD
23,543,383
kUSD
23,543,383
kUSD
23,543,383
kUSD
23,543,383
kUSD
23,543,383
kUSD
23,543,383
kUSD
23,543,383
kUSD
23,543,383
kUSD
kUSD
23,543,383
234,958,180
kUSD
kUSD
228,096,552
Total Tax
kUSD
(46,991,636)
(72,314)
(547,964)
(6,861,628)
187,966,544
10,710,425
4,769,384,258
NPV
10,710,425
Payback
4
2014
23,543,383
Taxable income
Capital employed
3
2013
kUSD
IRR
2
2012
29.1%
(1,198,793)
9
(547,964)
(547,964)
(498,149)
(547,964)
(21,432)
(16,422)
(17,350)
61,718
(72,314)
(21,432)
(16,422)
(17,350)
64,518
61,718
(72,314)
(21,432)
(16,422)
(17,350)
(72,314)
(21,432)
(16,422)
(72,314)
(21,432)
(72,314)
(93,747)
(110,169)
(127,519)
(65,801)
(1,284)
(547,964)
(641,711)
(751,880)
(879,398)
(945,200)
(641,711)
(751,880)
(879,398)
(945,200)
(946,483)
(93,747)
(77,476)
(641,711)
(110,169)
(82,772)
(751,880)
(127,519)
(87,097)
(879,398)
(65,801)
(40,857)
(945,200)
(1,284)
(725)
(946,483)
7
2017
8
2018
9
2019
10
2020
11
2021
12
2022
13
2023
14
2024
15
2025
67,441
70,493
82,037
1,271,015
89,840
93,996
98,341
102,882
107,628
64,518
67,441
70,493
82,037
1,271,015
89,840
93,996
98,341
102,882
61,718
64,518
67,441
70,493
82,037
1,271,015
89,840
93,996
98,341
(17,350)
61,718
64,518
67,441
70,493
82,037
1,271,015
89,840
93,996
(16,422)
(17,350)
61,718
64,518
67,441
70,493
82,037
1,271,015
89,840
(21,432)
(16,422)
(17,350)
61,718
64,518
67,441
70,493
82,037
1,271,015
(72,314)
(21,432)
(16,422)
(17,350)
61,718
64,518
67,441
70,493
82,037
(72,314)
(21,432)
(16,422)
(17,350)
61,718
64,518
67,441
70,493
(72,314)
(21,432)
(16,422)
(17,350)
61,718
64,518
67,441
(21,432)
1,651,856
(16,422)
1,767,285
61,718
2,002,280
64,518
2,048,189
66,157
136,650
218,686
(72,314)
1,489,702
(946,483)
(880,326)
(743,676)
(524,990)
(880,326)
(743,676)
(524,990)
964,712
66,157
33,949
(880,326)
136,650
63,748
(743,676)
218,686
92,744
(524,990)
(192,942)
1,296,759
499,957
771,769
(17,350)
1,882,048
1,651,856
1,767,285
1,882,048
2,002,280
2,048,189
(330,371)
1,321,485
463,172
2,093,254
(353,457)
1,413,828
450,489
3,507,082
(376,410)
1,505,638
436,130
5,012,721
(400,456)
1,601,824
421,810
6,614,544
(409,638)
1,638,552
392,256
8,253,096
16
2026
17
2027
18
2028
19
2029
20
2030
21
2031
22
2032
23
2033
24
2034
112,588
117,771
123,188
128,848
1,588,904
140,940
147,395
154,139
161,183
107,628
112,588
117,771
123,188
128,848
1,588,904
140,940
147,395
154,139
102,882
107,628
112,588
117,771
123,188
128,848
1,588,904
140,940
147,395
98,341
102,882
107,628
112,588
117,771
123,188
128,848
1,588,904
140,940
93,996
98,341
102,882
107,628
112,588
117,771
123,188
128,848
1,588,904
89,840
93,996
98,341
102,882
107,628
112,588
117,771
123,188
128,848
1,271,015
89,840
93,996
98,341
102,882
107,628
112,588
117,771
123,188
82,037
1,271,015
89,840
93,996
98,341
102,882
107,628
112,588
117,771
70,493
82,037
1,271,015
89,840
93,996
98,341
102,882
107,628
112,588
67,441
2,096,259
70,493
2,146,590
82,037
2,199,285
1,271,015
2,246,096
89,840
2,563,985
93,996
2,615,085
98,341
2,668,484
102,882
2,724,282
107,628
2,782,583
2,096,259
2,146,590
2,199,285
2,246,096
2,563,985
2,615,085
2,668,484
2,724,282
2,782,583
(419,252)
1,677,008
364,966
9,930,103
(429,318)
1,717,272
339,753
11,647,375
(439,857)
1,759,428
316,449
13,406,803
(449,219)
1,796,877
293,804
15,203,679
(512,797)
2,051,188
304,896
17,254,867
(523,017)
2,092,068
282,702
19,346,935
(533,697)
2,134,787
262,250
21,481,722
(544,856)
2,179,426
243,394
23,661,148
(556,517)
2,226,067
226,003
25,887,214
25
2035
26
2036
27
2037
28
2038
29
2039
30
2040
31
2041
32
2042
33
2043
4,328,727
176,226
184,252
192,634
201,386
210,525
220,067
230,028
240,428
161,183
4,328,727
176,226
184,252
192,634
201,386
210,525
220,067
230,028
154,139
161,183
4,328,727
176,226
184,252
192,634
201,386
210,525
220,067
147,395
154,139
161,183
4,328,727
176,226
184,252
192,634
201,386
210,525
140,940
147,395
154,139
161,183
4,328,727
176,226
184,252
192,634
201,386
1,588,904
140,940
147,395
154,139
161,183
4,328,727
176,226
184,252
192,634
128,848
1,588,904
140,940
147,395
154,139
161,183
4,328,727
176,226
184,252
123,188
128,848
1,588,904
140,940
147,395
154,139
161,183
4,328,727
176,226
117,771
123,188
128,848
1,588,904
140,940
147,395
154,139
161,183
4,328,727
112,588
7,003,683
117,771
7,067,321
123,188
7,133,802
128,848
7,203,248
1,588,904
7,275,786
140,940
5,897,407
147,395
5,976,533
154,139
6,059,166
161,183
6,145,455
7,003,683
7,067,321
7,133,802
7,203,248
7,275,786
5,897,407
5,976,533
6,059,166
6,145,455
(1,400,737)
(1,413,464)
(1,426,760)
(1,440,650)
(1,455,157)
(1,179,481)
(1,195,307)
(1,211,833)
(1,229,091)
5,602,946
517,130
31,490,161
5,653,857
474,389
37,144,017
5,707,042
435,320
42,851,059
5,762,598
399,598
48,613,657
5,820,629
366,929
54,434,286
4,717,925
270,377
59,152,211
4,781,227
249,096
63,933,438
4,847,333
229,582
68,780,771
4,916,364
211,683
73,697,135
34
2044
35
2045
36
2046
37
2047
38
2048
39
2049
40
2050
41
2051
42
2052
251,283
12,650,484
240,428
251,283
12,650,484
230,028
240,428
251,283
12,650,484
220,067
230,028
240,428
251,283
12,650,484
210,525
220,067
230,028
240,428
251,283
12,650,484
201,386
210,525
220,067
230,028
240,428
251,283
12,650,484
192,634
201,386
210,525
220,067
230,028
240,428
251,283
12,650,484
184,252
192,634
201,386
210,525
220,067
230,028
240,428
251,283
12,650,484
176,226
184,252
192,634
201,386
210,525
220,067
230,028
240,428
251,283
4,328,727
6,235,555
176,226
14,557,312
184,252
14,381,086
192,634
14,196,834
201,386
14,004,201
210,525
13,802,815
220,067
13,592,290
230,028
13,372,223
240,428
13,142,195
6,235,555
14,557,312
14,381,086
14,196,834
14,004,201
13,802,815
13,592,290
13,372,223
13,142,195
(1,247,111)
(2,911,462)
(2,876,217)
(2,839,367)
(2,800,840)
(2,760,563)
(2,718,458)
(2,674,445)
(2,628,439)
4,988,444
195,260
78,685,579
11,645,850
414,407
90,331,428
11,504,869
372,173
101,836,297
11,357,467
334,004
113,193,765
11,203,361
299,520
124,397,125
11,042,252
268,376
135,439,377
10,873,832
240,257
146,313,209
10,697,779
214,879
157,010,988
10,513,756
191,984
167,524,744
43
2053
44
2054
45
2055
12,650,484
251,283
12,901,767
12,650,484
12,650,484
0
-
12,901,767
12,650,484
(2,580,353)
(2,530,097)
10,321,414
171,338
177,846,157
10,120,387
152,728
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
187,966,544
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
In the 'sensitivity analysis' the columns 'conservative' and 'optimistic' are not interactive. Only the column 'base case' is interactive with 'input and output'
Base case: Assumes a project in
Africa
of
50,000
ha freehold land / leasing the waterbox.
Scenario 1 - Biomass at harvest
kUSD
%
Conservative
0.15
0.35
0.50
0.50
631,649
15.5%
Base case
0.30
0.70
1.00
1.00
1,248,738
18.7%
Optimistic
0.45
1.05
1.50
1.50
1,830,484
20.9%
kUSD
%
Conservative
0%
150
400
994,339
17.7%
Base case
1%
192.36
566.64
1,248,738
18.7%
Optimistic
2%
246.09
799.96
1,536,818
19.4%
kUSD
%
Conservative
60%
60%
60%
527,362
15.4%
Base case
90%
95%
95%
1,248,738
18.7%
Optimistic
98%
98%
98%
1,389,055
19.1%
kUSD
%
FTE
Conservative
1.00
1%
0.50
1%
471,198
13.4%
11,417
Base case
2.00
3%
0.75
2%
1,248,738
18.7%
11,417
Optimistic
3.00
5%
1.00
3%
3,228,865
26.9%
11,417
kUSD
%
Conservative
2.00
2%
3.28
1,219,832
18.4%
Base case
6.00
6%
25.75
1,248,738
18.7%
Optimistic
6.00
6%
25.75
1,248,738
18.7%
kUSD
%
Conservative
15
1,137,390
17.8%
Base case
10
1,248,738
18.7%
Optimistic
5
1,360,087
19.6%
No bushes planted
assumes no bushes
planted, no harvest
406,022
13.5%
11,157
Groasis
Base case
10
the values to the left
90% need to be amended to
95% the values in the column
95% to the right to get NPV =
2.00
0
3.0%
0.75
2.0%
Changes to
90
60%
60%
60%
1.96
2.0%
0.75
2.0%
605.00
Price (USD/m3)
505.00
405.00
305.00
205.00
105.00
5.00
Year
hardwood timber price (USD/m3)
1.60
1.40
Price (USD/kg)
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
Year
bushes harvest price (USD/kg)
50.00
45.00
Price (USD/credit)
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Year
Carbon credit prices (USD/credit)
(5,000,000)
Year
2045
2044
2043
2042
2041
2040
2039
2038
2037
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
15,000,000
Break even
in 2019
10,000,000
5,000,000
Legend
2 trees, planted in 1 waterbox
2667 trees / ha
2 bushes, planted in 1 waterbox 1333 bushes / ha
Planting scheme (the grid below represents 1ha, 100m x 100m)
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
Baseline study
Overhead and management
Waterbox removal
Maintenance - year 8 onwards
Harvesting of trees (timber) - first interim harvest
Harvesting of trees (timber) - third interim harvest
FSC - Admin and control
Carbon - Admin, verification and control
Planting
Custodial management
Maintenance - year 2-8
Harvesting of bushes (fruit/nuts)
Harvesting of trees (timber) - second interim harvest
Harvesting of trees (timber) - final harvest
Carbon - Admin, verification and control
Secondary employment generated