May, 2011
(Taka in crore) Tax Revenue NBR 50205.1 59741.6 19.0 7211 65416 (29.0%) Non-NBR 2652.9 2742.7 3.4 346 2889 (19.4%) Non-Tax Revenue 10989.3 13184.8 12.7 693 10543 (-5.0%) Total Revenue 63847.3 75669.3 17.2 8250 78848 (22.7%)
A ug us t S ep te m be r
O ct ob e r N ov em be r D ec em be r
Ja nu ar y F eb ru ar y
M ar ch
a.2 Grants
Up to May FY11 growth of total revenue was 22.7percent. NBR Tax revenue growth was 29.0 percent. Non-NBR Tax revenue increased by 19.4 percent Non-Tax revenue decreased by 5.0 percent.
2008-09 2131.3
45.7
Ju ne
Ju ly
A pr il
M ay
-52.16
(Taka in crore)
Growth (%) 9.10 27.81 54.73 -2.78 13.2 -0.42 -2.57 -68.19 124.52 -82.98 -3.15 2010-11 P May 7815.4 1168.78 1084.45 84.33 3362.96 2623.6 54.9 51.0 429.8 247.5 11232.6 July- May 63979.6 (22.63%) 12718.9 (3.99%) 11457.6 (4.26%) 1261.4 (1.60%) 24232.8 (32.5%) 19435.4 (7.95%) 465.3 (31.91%) 368.7 (407.06%) 3853.9 (103.05%) 3062.9 (--) 91536.0 (25.10%)
1.Non-Development Interest Domestic Foreign Subsidies & Transfer 2. ADP 3. Development Program Financed from Rev. Budget 4. Non-ADP FFW
5. Net Outlay on Food A/C
66073.5 13204.4 1963.5 1240.9 22792.2 24060.9 727.4 72.8 2707.9 941.9 95276.7
Source: Integrated Budgeting & Accounting System (iBAS), Finance Division. Figures in parentheses indicate growth over July, FY 10. ** excludes non-ADP projects, structural adjustment
Up to May FY 11, Total expenditure records a growth (growth: 25.1%), of which Subsidies and transfer (growth: 32.5 %) Interest payments (growth: 3.99%).
Chart 2: Monthly Trend of ADP and Non-ADP Expenditure (FY 09-FY11)
9000 8000 7000 6000 ADP 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
Au gu st Se pt em be r O ct ob er N ov em be r D ec em be r Ja nu ar y Fe br ua ry M ar ch Ju ne Ju ly Ap ri l M ay
20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Non-ADP
Hlth 6.1%
Edu 19.7%
Interest 20.1%
GPS = General Public Services, LGRD = LGD, RD & Cooperatives, CHTs, POS = Public Order and Safety, Edu = Education and Technology, Hlth = Health, SSW = Social Security and Welfare, RCRA = Recreation, Culture and Religious Affairs, Agri = Agriculture, Fisheries and Livestock, Land, Water Resources and Food, FE = Fuel and Energy, IES = Industries, Jute, Textiles, Commerce, Labor & Overseas, Trans = Transport and Communication
Sector wise revenue expenditure shows that highest expenditure is in Interest payment (20.1%) followed by Education (19.7%), Public order & safety (9.4%). Defense (11.0%)
Admn = General Public Services, Defence, and Public Order and Safety, SIS = Social Infrastructure, covers Edu, health, Housing and SSW & LGRD. PIS = Physical Infrastructure, covers FE and Trans; and Others include RCRA and IES
(Taka in crore) Overall Balance as % of GDP -2.38 -3.02 -0.12 -0.31 -16364.3 -20750.9 -2961.6 -12199.3
Up to May*
Source: Integrated Budgeting & Accounting System (iBAS), Finance Division. * excluding grants
Domestic Bank 9856.9 -2092.5 3084.3 15928.6 Non-Bank 3749.5 17669.3 -108.3 -3843.9
(Taka in crore) Total Financing as Financing % of GDP 16364.3 23760.4 2899.0 11435.9 2.38 3.3 0.09 -0.21
Up to May*
Source: Integrated Budgeting & Accounting System (iBAS), Finance Division. *including BPC ** excluding BPC
Nonbanking
Banking Item
Accounts 2010-11 (up to May) Account 2009-10 Account 2008-09
Domestic
Foreign
-1.0
0.0
1.0
3.0
4.0
July- May
Growth over July-May FY10
Source: National Savings Directorate.
Up to May of FY11, the growth rate in net sale is 76.59 percent lower compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year.
A. MONETARY SECTOR
b.1 Monetary and credit development
(Taka in crore)
Growth (%) 41.31 18.84 17.90 -1.66 -6.52 21.07 24.24 22.44
2010-11p Growth(%) over May, FY10 May 67877.20 361398.60 421171.10 84532.80 65632.80 18899.90 336638.30 429275.80 4.20 25.88 28.29 31.57 32.73 27.70 27.50 21.88
At the end of May FY11, broad money growth stands to 21.88 percent. Growth in Net Foreign Asset is 4.20 percent. Growth in Govt. (net) 32.73 percent Growth in private sector credit is 27.50 percent.
Source: Export Promotion Bureau. *Growth over the same period of the previous fiscal year.
FY11
FY10
FY09
Jute and Jute Goods 5.0% Frozen Food 2.8% Leather 1.3%
Up to May of FY11, export earnings increased by 41.61 percent over the same period of previous year. This growth mainly contributed by Knitwear (46.76%), Woven Garments (39.44%), Frozen food (47.56%), Leather (34.82%), Raw Jute & Jute goods (42.04%), Footwear (45.57%), chemical Products (12.48%), Agricultural Products (20.93%), Rubber (122.5%) and manufactured commodities (41.82%); While exports of Engineering Products (1.93%), Tea (48.28%), Petroleum Products (11.6%) have declined significantly comparing the same period of FY10.
(In million US$) 2010-11p July-May 30747.1 42.6 35873.27 39.4 29178.73 40.3
Import payments Growth (%) LCs Opened Growth (%) LCs Settled Growth (%)
Source: Bangladesh Bank. p-provisional; Growth rate (in percent) over the same period of the previous fiscal year.
FY11
FY10
In 2009-10, import payments increased by 5.47 percent compared to the previous fiscal year. However, up to May FY11, import payment increased by 42.6 percent compared to the same period of FY10. C.2.1 Structure of Imports (Based on LCs settled)
Chart 9: Structure of Imports (Based on LCs settled, July-May FY'11)
Up to May FY11, import of consumer goods recorded an increase of 41.41 percent over the same period of previous fiscal year. In the similar periodImport of intermediate goods decreased by 2.84 percent. Import of industrial raw materials increased by 50.51 percent.
Source: Bangladesh Bank, EPB. p. provisional, - indicates data are not available
A ug us S ep t te m be r O ct ob er N ov em be D r ec em be r Ja nu a Fe ry br ua ry M ar ch
In FY10 remittances inflow records a moderate growth of 13.4 percent. In FY10 remittances as percent of GDP and Export were 11.06 percent and 67.65 percent respectively which are relatively higher than previous fiscal year.
Up to May FY11, remittances inflow recorded a growth of 5.1 percent compared to the same period of FY10.
Ju ne
Ju ly
A pr il
M ay
End of the period 68.52 69.06 69.445 69.5850 70.2150 70.7850 70.3670 70.7450 71.1500 71.3000 72.7350 72.9000 73.4850
68.60 68.80 69.18 69.4886 69.6744 70.5474 70.3913 70.6170 71.0363 71.1735 71.9456 72.8235 73.1919
Chart 11: Period Average Exchange Rate (TK-US$) movement during last 12 month
74 73 72
Taka
71 70 69 68 67
Exchange rate of Taka per US$ increased to Tk.73.485 at the end of May, 2011 from Tk.69.585 at the end of August, 2011. Taka depreciated by 5.60 percent as of end May, 2011 over end August, 2011.
M ay '1 0 Ju ne '1 0 Ju ly '1 Au 0 gu Se st '1 pt em 0 be r'1 O 0 ct ob er N '1 ov em 0 be D r'1 ec 0 em be r'1 Ja 0 nu ar y'1 Fe 1 br ua ry '1 1 M ar ch '1 1 Ap ril '1 1 M ay '1 1
10
(In million US$) 2009-10 10749.74 4.5 As on end of May'11 10431.23 3.82
7470.96 3.98
The gross foreign exchange balances held abroad by commercial banks stood at US$ 10431.23 million by end May, 2011 against US$11316.44 million by end April, 2011.
On the basis of average import payment during May 2010 to April 2011, the foreign exchange reserve is equivalent to 3.82 months import payments.
Chart 12: Outstanding Stock of Gross Foreign Exchange Reserve at the end of the month (May, 2010 to May, 2011)
11600 11400 11200 11000 10800 10600 10400 10200 10000 9800 9600 9400
M ay '1 0 Ju ne '1 0 Ju ly '1 0 Au gu st Se '1 pt 0 em be r'1 0 O ct ob er N '1 ov 0 em be D r'1 ec 0 em be r' 10 Ja nu ar y '1 Fe 1 br ua ry '1 1 M ar ch '1 1 Ap ril '1 1 M ay '1 1
million US$
2009-10 R
(July-May)
11
In FY10, Current Account Balance recorded a surplus of US$ 2966 million, which was US$ 2416 million in the same period of the previous fiscal year.
Current account balance records a surplus of 609 million US$ during July-May of FY 11, which was 2966 million US$ in the same period of the previous fiscal year.
C. REAL SECTOR
d.1 Gross Domestic Product
2005-06 GDP at constant prices Growth (%) Agriculture Industry Service GDP at current prices Growth (%) GNI at current prices Per capita GDP (Tk.) Per capita GNI (Tk.) Per capita GDP (US$) Per capita GNI (US$) 284673 6.63 4.94 9.74 6.40 415728 12.14 442935 29955 31915 447 476 2006-07 302971 6.43 4.56 8.38 6.92 472477 13.65 507752 33607 36116 487 523 2007-08 321726 6.19 3.20 6.78 6.49 545822 15.52 594212 38330 41728 559 608
(Taka in Crore )
2008-09 340197 5.74 4.12 6.46 6.32 614795 12.60 670696 42628 46504 620 676
2009-10R 360047 5.83 4.67 6.01 6.38 692380 12.62 758684 47405 51945 685 751
Real GDP growth in FY10 was 5.83 percent of which Growth in Agriculture as per revised was 4.67 percent Growth in Industry is estimated 6.01 percent Service sector growth is estimated at 6.38 percent.
Per capita GDP in FY10 exceeded US$ 650 mark and reached to US$ 685.
12
G D P g r o w th r a te a t c u r r e n t a n d c o n s ta n t p r ic e s
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
1 3 .6 5 1 1 .3 3 1 0 .0 2 7 .9 1 6 .9 4 7 .7 5 1 0 .7 8 1 2 .1 4 1 5 .5 2 1 2 .6 2 1 2 .6 4
Growth (%)
6 .6 3 5 .2 6 6 .2 7 5 .9 6 6 .4 3
6 .1 9
5 .7 4 5 .8 3
5 .9 4
5 .2 7
4 .4 2
1999- 200000 01
200102
2002- 200303 04
200405 Year
2005- 200606 07
200708
C u r r e n t P r ic e
C o n s t a n t P r ic e
d.2 Quantum Index of Industrial Production (Large and Medium Scale Manufacturing Industry, Base: 1988-89=100)
0.00
13
Twelve-Month Average Basis National Food Non-Food 7.20 8.11 5.90 9.94 12.28 6.32 6.66 7.19 5.91 7.31 8.53 5.45 Twelve-Month Point to Point Basis 7.26 8.72 7.52 9.64 7.61 9.72 6.86 8.43 7.54 9.80 8.28 11.01 9.04 11.91 9.79 12.77 10.49 13.87 10.67 14.36 10.20 13.16
229.55 233.31 236.53 238.68 238.89 240.75 242.48 244.28 245.97 246.24 246.39
4.87 3.76 3.69 3.82 3.33 3.27 3.85 4.36 4.32 3.97 4.78
General
Food
Non-Food
14
15