OGDCL
Target Price: PKR 182
Short Term—NEUTRAL
Long Term—BUY
Important Data
Introduction
The Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) was created in 1961, to
undertake a comprehensive exploratory program and promote Pakistan’s oil and gas
prospects. In 1997, it was converted into a Public Limited Company. The
Government of Pakistan holds 95% stake in the company after off-loading 5% in
the market through an IPO in 2003. It holds 48% of the country’s oil reserves and
35% of total gas reserves.
Additional oil production of 1500bpd is expected from Chanda and 1750bpd from
Bobi in the FY2005. In addition to the development of existing fields, OGDCL is
aggressively seeking new fields; it has an excellent success ratio of 1:3. The company
plans to drill 17 exploration wells and 6 development wells in FY2005. International
exploration areas in Egypt, Syria and Libya are also being considered by OGDCL.
Keeping these things in mind we can safely say that the long-term production
growth is expected to remain high.
SC SECURITIES (PVT) LTD.
Corporate Member: Karachi Stock Exchange (Guarantee) Ltd.
C Corporate Office: 706, 7 th Floor, Business Plaza, Mumtaz Hasan Road, Off. I.I. Chundrigar Road, Karachi.
Tel:2412542-3
Stock Exchange Office: 441, 4 th Floor, Karachi Stock Exchange Building, Stock Exchange Road, Karachi. Tel : 2432367
Email: research@scsecurities.net
Future Outlook
OGDCL’s PAT for the FY2005 is expected to be Rs.36.4b with EPS of Rs.8.46.
This growth seems to continue for at least few years and the picture looks good.
However, the world oil prices together with the future exploration costs are the key
to future growth in earnings.
Recommendation
With our forecasted EPS of 8.46 for the FY2005, OGDCL is currently trading at a
PE ratio of 13.4 that is almost in line with the market PE ratio. Using this as a basis,
our short-term target price comes to around Rs.114, so we rate OGDCL as
NEUTRAL for the short-term at current levels.
Based on DCF valuation, our long-term fair value comes to around Rs.182.
Therefore we may rate OGDCL as a BUY for the long-term.
DCF valuation
Discount rate
Terminal growth
APPROPRIATIONS:
Transfer to contingency reserve 913,089 295,647
Transfer to reserve for issue of bonus shares 17,531,139 0
First interim dividend @ Re 1.00 (2003: Rs 9.30) per share 9,999,659 4,300,928
Second interim dividend @ Rs 1.25 (2003: Rs 2.70) per sh are 0 7,526,625
Final dividend @ Rs 1.25 (2003: Rs 2.70) per share 2,903,127 5,376,161
31,347,014 17,499,361 26,224,568
Unappropriated profit carried forward 21,087,495 26,002,595 36,180,818
Balance Sheet
As at 30th June FY2003A FY2004A FY2005F
Rs '000 Rs '000 Rs '000