November 9, 2011

SE ASIA: Widespread Flooding Impacts Regional Rice Production in 2011

Heavy monsoon rainfall and multiple typhoons have innundated large areas of productive rice lands in Southeast Asia during September and October. Cultivated rice areas stretching from Burma in the west to the Philippines in the east have been negatively affected, with an estimated 2.6 million hectares or 6 percent of the regions total rice area experiencing flooded conditions. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) staff throughout the region have been investigating the ongoing impact of adverse weather and flooding on crops and have contributed to the overall assessment provided in this article. In addition, a special satellite-based flood assessment analysis was made in October to more clearly illustrate where flooding was directly impacting rice crops across mainland SE Asia, resulting in the map below.

A favorable summer monsoon and tropical cyclone season has prevailed throughout the region since early May, bringing normal to above normal rainfall to most rice growing areas in the region. Thailand, Cambodia, and portions of Laos and the Philippines have experienced well-above normal seasonal rainfall, especially over the past two months as remnants of tropical storms Nesat and Nanmadol brought drenching rains to broad sections of these countries. Recent episodes of large-scale flooding reported in Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines can be largely attributed to these late-season tropical weather systems. Though harvested rice acreage will be reduced as a result of flood-related damage to standing crops, rice fields in non-affected areas will have benefitted from the favorable season-long rainfall pattern. Crop yields in areas unaffected by flooding are forecast to have increased relative to last year as a result of near ideal moisture conditions. In addition, farmers in Burma, Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos typically grow 2 rice crops per year, with the dry season crop being irrigated. Rice production from these secondary harvests is expected to be significantly larger than last year, as growers attempt to recoup from losses suffered during the floods. As a result of these somewhat offsetting factors, region-wide total rice production in 2011/12 is estimated by USDA at 112.5 million tons, down 2.0 million or 2 percent from last month, and down 1 percent from last year's record level.

Country Summaries: Burma Above normal rainfall in north-central Burma caused widely scattered flooding along the lower Irrawaddy River delta during September and October. Crop losses were reported on roughly 315,000 hectares, which represents 5 percent of total estimated rice area in 2011/12. Burma s rice farmers cultivate both short and long duration rice varieties. Short season varieties are typically harvested in November and December, while traditional long season varieties are harvested from January through March. Floods occurring in October would have hit as short season rice varieties were in late grain-fill stage, and while long season crops were newly transplanted. Both seasonal varieties would have been vulnerable to flooding at these growth stages. Though Burma cultivates two rice crops each year, the vast majority of production (85-90 percent) occurs during the summer monsoon or wet season. Dry season irrigated rice area has reportedly stagnated over the last decade, and is unlikely to increase as a result of recent flooding and crop losses. USDA currently estimates Burma s rice production at 10.5 million tons (milled basis), down 0.5 million or 4 percent from last month and down 2 percent from last year. Thailand Thailand received well-above normal rainfall during the summer monsoon, with widespread areas recording up to 72 inches of precipitation between April and October 2011. The highland mountain watershed of the Chao Phraya River, which transects central Thailand, experienced some of the heaviest rainfall totals in the country. The higher than normal rainfall filled upstream mountain reservoirs, necessitating controlled releases from dams that were at full capacity. The releases from Dams combined with heavier than normal rainfall throughout an already saturated watershed to cause widespread flooding in central and southern Thailand. Serious flooding has affected a variety of regions in Thailand this year, with the most severe outbreak affecting the main central corridor of the country in October. Flood damage estimates have steadily risen with Ministry of Agriculture officials indicating in mid-October that roughly 1.3 million hectares of rice has been affected. This represents 12 percent of total estimated rice area in 2011/12. USDA staff in Bangkok estimate that total flood losses will amount to approximately 3.4 million tons of paddy or 2.25 million tons of milled rice. Historically, Thai farmers have been able to recover from such episodes by sowing unusually late crops and by increasing area under irrigation during the dry season. Both of these strategies are expected to be executed by growers during the next 6-9 months. The government has acted quickly to marshal available resources to assist farmers to replant, authorizing $53.3 million for seed distributions to affected farmers. These seed resources are estimated to be adequate to sow 1.1 million hectares. Floodwaters are already receding in the North, and farmers are reported to already be actively replanting the wet season crop. Harvest of this unusually late wet season crop is expected to occur in February 2012. Government authorities also expect record sown area and production during the upcoming dry season, with rice area increasing 5 percent and production rising between 8-12 percent. Reservoirs that

provide irrigation supplies for dry season cultivation are at full capacity, while the government s generous Paddy Pledging Scheme has set intervention prices 50 percent above the current market price for white rice. There are strong financial incentives in place to encourage farmers to expand rice production in the nearterm. At the same time national rice yields in non-flooded areas (totaling 85 percent of wet season rice area) are forecast to have increased this year owing to highly beneficial rainfall, with a bumper harvest expected in the key Northeast region where 60 percent of wet season production originates. All of these factors are expected to increase rice production by approximately 1.25 MMT (milled basis) and help offset aggregate national crop losses already incurred due to flooding. USDA currently estimates Thailand s rice production at 20.3 million tons (milled basis), down 1.0 million or 4 percent from last month and essentially unchanged from last year. Cambodia Heavy rainfall throughout the northern Mekong River watershed of Thailand and Laos accentuated downstream flooding in Cambodia this year. The country s major central inland water body, Lake Tonle Sap, expanded significantly in September and October as excess floodwaters backed up into it from the Mekong River. The summer wet season rice crop, which accounts for roughly 80 percent of the country s total rice production, was in tillering to grain-fill growth stages when the floods arrived. The rice harvest typically runs from November to February, with the largest volumes being harvested in December and January. Early-maturing rice varieties which are ready to harvest by November would have been particularly susceptible to flood damage. Eighteen provinces have reportedly been affected by serious flooding, with the worst crop losses reported along the lake s northwest border and throughout southeast Cambodia. Though government officials estimate that 415,000 hectares of rice has been inundated by recent floods, they also report that only 220,000 hectares of the crop is a complete loss. This represents 8 percent of total estimated rice area in 2011/12. The remaining 195,000 hectares will recover to some degree. Cambodia has two seasonal rice crops, with the second crop grown under irrigated conditions during the winter dry season. Irrigation supplies should be plentiful this year in areas where irrigation infrastructure was not heavily damaged by the floodwaters, and thus production prospects following the summer monsoon should be quite favorable. Dry season irrigated rice area has been expanding at a rate of nearly 20,000 hectares per year over the last 10 years, and this season should also see that trend continue. Rice yields in the dry season on average are 50 percent higher than in the wet season, enabling growers to make up for some of the crop lost to flooding. USDA currently estimates Cambodia s rice production at 4.8 million tons (milled basis), down 0.4 million or 7 percent from last month and down 7 percent from last year. Laos Regional authorities in Laos estimated that roughly 70,000 hectares of rice was damaged from flooding along the Mekong River in September. This represents 8 percent of total estimated rice area in 2011/12. Flooding was concentrated in southern lowland rice producing districts near the Cambodian border. These areas are typically where use of high-yielding varieties is common, rice yields are some of the highest in the country, and where modest annual surpluses are produced. Laos also produces two crops of rice in a year, with the summer wet season crop yielding 90 percent of total production. Government officials indicated that irrigated rice area would definitely increase this year in the coming dry season in response to the floodrelated crop losses. The southern flood-affected region is one of the few areas where dry season irrigation infrastructure is already developed, and farmers will want to make up for crops lost during the wet season. USDA currently estimates Cambodia s rice production at 1.85 million tons (milled basis), down 0.15 million or 8 percent from last month but up 3 percent from last year. Vietnam The primary region affected by recent flooding is the Mekong River Delta (MRD), the rice bread basket of Vietnam. This region is highly prone to flooding during the summer monsoon period, and is perennially inundated by floodwaters flowing through the vast Mekong River watershed. As such the government has engineered a vast system of dams and dikes to protect critical farmland. Farmers have also adapted to the threat of persistent annual flooding by concentrating summer cultivation on lands that are best protected. Though the satellite assessment indicated that roughly 680,000 hectares of agricultural land in the MRD is currently inundated by Mekong floodwaters, representing 45 percent of the total rice paddy land in the region, the government estimates only 22,700 hectares of actively growing crops has been affected, and of that total only 7,920 hectares was a total loss. This indicates that the vast majority of flooding visible in the MRD is on seasonally fallowed land. Field reports also indicate that owing to high export prices, rice farmers in the MRD may increase late Autumn rice area this year, thus providing additional future rice supply. Farmers in flooded areas will also benefit in future growing seasons from enhanced fertility owing to the copious quantities of newly deposited silt after the floodwaters recede. This is one of the annual benefits of flooding in the lower Mekong River. USDA currently estimates Vietnam s rice production at 40.69 million tons (milled basis), unchanged from last month. Philippines Two powerful typhoons (Nanmadol, Nesat) struck major northern rice producing provinces in September, causing widespread crop losses. Total rice area lost to flooding was estimated at 440,000 hectares, representing almost 10 percent of total estimated rice area in 2011/12. Disaster response authorities rapidly made their assessments known, enabling USDA to revise its rice production forecasts in October. In

November USDA currently estimates Philippine s rice production at 10.65 million tons (milled basis), unchanged from last month.

Additional resources: SE Asia crop area maps http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/al/seasia_croparea.htm SE Asia crop production maps http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/al/seasia_cropprod.htm Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.
For more information contact Michael Shean | michael.shean@fas.usda.gov | (202) 720-7366 USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis

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