Technical Research | November 14, 2011

Daily Technical Report

Sensex (17193) / NIFTY (5169)
We witnessed a gapdown opening on Fridays session and markets remained under pressure till the midpoint of the day. However, indices manage to give a minor bounce from the days low during the latter of the session to close marginally above the support level of 17165 / 5160. On the sectoral front, the Banking, Metal and Capital Goods counters were among the major losers whereas oil & Gas and auto sector ended on a gaining side. The advance decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters (A=937 D=1912). (Source www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation
The Daily 200 SMA is placed at 18000 / 5400 level. The 20 EMA on the Daily and Weekly chart is placed
Source: Falcon

at 17165 / 5165 and 17300 / 5200, respectively. We are observing a negative crossover in Daily RSI

Smoothened oscillator and the ADX (9) indicator. The Daily chart depicts the Japanese candlestick

Actionable points:
View Resistance Levels Support Levels Neutral 5199 - 5240 5142 5085

patterns such as Long Legged Doji and Spinning Top in Sensex and Nifty, respectively.

Trading strategy:
On Friday, indices registered a Weekly low of 17096 / 5142 and closed marginally above the lower level (17165 / 5165) of the trading range mentioned in our previous report. Therefore, going forward, this level may act as an important support. On Wednesday, we observed a negative crossover in RSI Smoothened oscillator and this crossover is still intact. In addition, the Daily chart depicts a negative crossover in ADX (9) indicator, which implies that if indices sustain below Fridays low of 17096 / 5142, then a further fall is expected. In this case, indices may test crucial support levels of 16900 16669 / 5085 5011. On the other hand, the Daily chart exhibits Japanese candlestick patterns such as Long Legged Doji in Sensex and Spinning Top in Nifty.

Both patterns indicate uncertainty prevailing at current levels and both patterns need further confirmatory signals. These patterns will be confirmed ONLY if the indices cross and close above the 17279 / 5199 mark. In such a scenario, indices may rally towards 17400 17570 / 5240 5285 levels. On the upside, 17700 / 5326 level remains to be a strong resistance. A sustainable move above this may push indices to test 18000 18100 / 5400 5450 levels. Therefore, we reiterate our view that traders should stay light on positions and continue to adopt a stock-specific approach.

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Technical Research | November 14, 2011

Bank Nifty Outlook - (9293)

Fridays sharp fall was an impact of a trend line breakdown as mentioned in our previous report. Due to massive selling pressure in banking counters, Bank Nifty closed substantially lower and tested the mentioned support level of 9323. The momentum oscillators on the Weekly chart coupled with the negative crossover of 5 & 20 EMA on daily chart suggests possibility of a further downside if index sustains below 9270 level. In this case, Bank Nifty may test lower levels of 9150 8950. However, looking at the oversold condition in hourly chart, the possibility of a pullback or consolidation cannot be ruled out. On the upside, 9510 9650 levels may now act as a resistance in coming trading sessions.

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Actionable points: View Resistance Levels Support Levels

Neutral 9510 9650 9270 - 9166
Source: Falcon

Stock Recommendations:
Stock Indraprastha Gas (NSE Cash) Action Buy Last close - ` 428.90 Buying Level - Buy above ` 432 Stop Loss - ` 423.50 Target - ` 452

Exhibit 3: Indraprastha Gas (NSE Cash) Daily chart

Justification On the Daily chart, we are witnessing a breakout from the downward sloping trend line with significant rise in volumes. Also, the ADX (9) indicator and 5 & 20 Day EMA are positively poised. Hence, we advise buying this stock ONLY above ` 432 for a target of ` 452 in coming 3 4 trading sessions.

Source: Falcon For Private Circulation Only |

Technical Research | November 14, 2011

Positive Bias: Stock Name IGL M&M Chambal Fert 5 Day EMA 422.6 834 92.3 20 Day EMA 417 827 92.7 Expected Target 452 880 102 Remarks View will change below 414 View will change below 805 View will change below 89.50

Negative Bias:

Stock Name Educomp Suzlon

5 Day EMA 259.3 35.9

20 Day EMA 259.6 36.8

Expected Target 225 33

Remarks View will change above 263 View will change above 37.40

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Technical Research | November 14, 2011

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 17,007 5,114 9,077 1,179 157 1,013 1,675 385 313 536 305 282 221 1,594 408 413 654 453 2,085 121 384 791 115 2,534 208 535 72 484 1,294 790 1,008 170 260 939 102 448 80 346 836 436 99 101 1,731 198 815 115 484 34 176 99 418 1,093 363 S1 17,100 5,141 9,185 1,199 160 1,035 1,710 390 319 548 310 284 224 1,607 412 420 660 458 2,129 125 390 806 117 2,655 210 546 74 492 1,312 816 1,034 172 263 947 104 458 82 353 861 445 100 103 1,765 202 822 116 494 34 179 100 424 1,112 373 PIVOT 17,190 5,170 9,378 1,211 162 1,074 1,732 394 324 556 314 287 228 1,617 416 427 670 468 2,159 130 394 832 120 2,731 213 554 77 498 1,341 832 1,063 173 267 956 105 469 84 359 875 458 101 105 1,815 206 828 118 500 35 183 102 429 1,126 380 R1 17,282 5,198 9,486 1,231 165 1,096 1,768 400 330 568 319 289 231 1,630 419 433 677 474 2,203 134 400 846 122 2,852 215 565 78 506 1,359 857 1,089 175 270 963 106 479 85 365 899 467 103 107 1,848 211 836 119 510 36 186 103 435 1,146 389 R2 17,372 5,226 9,680 1,244 167 1,135 1,789 404 335 576 323 292 235 1,640 423 440 686 484 2,233 140 404 872 124 2,928 217 573 81 512 1,387 873 1,118 177 275 972 107 490 87 371 913 481 104 109 1,898 214 842 121 516 36 191 104 440 1,160 397

Technical Research Team

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Technical Research | November 14, 2011 Technical Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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