Andhra Bank
Performance Highlights
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 4.5 (1.8) (18.0) 2QFY11 783 565 303 % chg (yoy) 21.4 21.7 4.3
`109 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 2QFY2012, Andhra Bank registered 4.3% yoy growth in its PAT to `316cr, slightly above our estimate due to higher net interest income and lower tax expenses than factored in by us. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Asset quality deteriorates significantly: The banks loan book declined sequentially by 2.8% to `73,592cr (up 21.5% yoy); however, deposits grew by 3.9% qoq to `94,435cr (up 20.2% yoy). CASA deposits declined by 2.4% qoq (up by weak 3.4% yoy), leading to CASA ratio dropping sequentially by 169bp (substantial 435bp yoy decline) to 26.1%. The banks yield on advances rose by 22bp qoq to 12.5% in 2QFY2012, however further deposit re-pricing during 2QFY2012 led to cost of deposits increasing by relatively higher 43bp qoq to 7.5%. Consequently, reported NIM remained flat sequentially at 3.8%. The banks asset quality deteriorated substantially during 2QFY2012, with gross NPA rising by 68.9% qoq to `1,987cr and net NPA more than trebling to `1,087cr. The bank switched over accounts worth `25lakhs and above to system-based NPA recognition during the quarter. Gross NPA ratio as of 2QFY2012 stood at 2.7% (1.6% in 1QFY2012) and net NPA ratio stood at 1.5% (0.5% in 1QFY2012). Provision coverage ratio (including technical write-offs) declined sharply to 61.7% in 2QFY2012 from 82.0% in 1QFY2012. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2013E ABV compared to its five-year range of 0.8x1.4x one-year forward ABV with a median of 1.1x. Considering the banks hefty exposure to the power sector (more than 20% of the loan book) and sharp deterioration in asset quality during 2QFY2012, we recommend Neutral on the stock. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 58.0 15.8 13.2 12.9
3m (1.7) (17.6)
FY2010 2,195 34.9 1,046 60.1 2.8 21.6 5.1 1.2 1.3 26.0
FY2011 3,221 46.8 1,267 21.2 3.3 22.6 4.8 0.9 1.3 23.2
FY2012E 3,800 18.0 1,341 5.8 3.3 24.0 4.6 0.8 1.1 19.2
FY2013E 4,115 8.3 1,242 -7.3 3.0 22.2 4.9 0.7 0.9 15.6
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
2QFY12
2,783 1,831 951 178 1,129 442 687 261 426 110 316 5.6 39.2 25.8 1.5
Actual 951 178 1,129 442 687 261 426 110 316
Estimates 886 201 1,087 457 630 211 419 126 293
Var. (%) 7.4 (11.7) 3.9 (3.3) 9.0 23.4 1.8 (12.4) 7.9
8.9 12.3
6.0 5.2
8.3 4.5
6.0
3.9
70.0
30.4
28.5
29.1
27.8
(1.4)
(5.0)
(2.8)
65.0 60.0
26.2
26.0
3.4
5.0 -
3.80
3.72
3.60
954 926
1,564
1,587
1,632
1,640
1,652
1.3 0.5
1.3 0.5
1.4 0.4
1.6 0.5
2.7 1.5
0.5
15.0 -
880 840
14.7
260
260
298
273
274
42.1
39.7
38.7
37.9
(10.0) (20.0)
10.0 -
39.2
(9.4)
(8.3)
1.5 1.4
Investment concerns
Continual weak performance in fee income and likely drop in margins to be a drag on profitability
During the last four years (FY200711), fee income (non-interest income excluding treasury) has risen at a CAGR of only 12.8% compared to advances growing at a CAGR of 26.5%. This resulted in fee income dropping to 0.8% of average assets (as of FY2011) from 1.1% in FY2007. We expect the weak performance with regards to fee income to continue and, hence, have estimated moderate growth of 3.3% and 15.3% in FY2012 and FY2013, respectively. The bank has one of the highest yields in the industry (12.5% as of 2QFY2012), also reflected in the relatively stronger calculated NIM of 3.3% (as of FY2011). Although reported NIM rose sequentially by 5bp during 2QFY2012, the cost of deposits increased substantially by 43bp qoq to 7.0%. The bank also has a relatively weaker liability profile with a calculated CASA base of sub-30% at 26.2%. Given the high yield on advances, we also expect asset quality pressures to be on the higher side for the bank.
Earlier estimates FY2012 15.0 21.0 27.7 3.0 (0.2) 7.0 14.0 1.6 81.0 FY2013 17.0 17.0 27.4 2.7 14.1 13.0 15.0 1.8 74.0
Revised estimates FY2012 13.0 19.0 28.2 3.3 (6.4) 6.0 14.0 2.4 70.0 FY2013 17.0 17.0 27.8 3.0 13.9 13.0 15.0 2.4 70.0
FY2013 Earlier estimates 3,717 1,021 4,738 2,123 2,615 775 1,840 597 1,243 Revised Var. (%) estimates 4,115 956 5,072 2,110 2,962 1,123 1,839 597 1,242 10.7 (6.3) 7.0 (0.6) 13.2 44.9 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)
Earlier estimates 3,522 895 4,417 1,866 2,551 754 1,797 539 1,258
Revised Var. (%) estimates 3,800 840 4,640 1,855 2,784 869 1,915 575 1,341 7.9 (6.2) 5.0 (0.6) 9.1 15.2 6.6 6.6 6.6
0.6x
0.8x
1x
1.2x
1.4x
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries); # without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY growth (%) Other income - YoY growth (%) Operating income - YoY growth (%) Operating expenses - YoY growth (%) Pre-prov. profit - YoY growth (%) Prov. & cont. - YoY growth (%) PBT - YoY growth (%) Prov. for taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY growth (%) FY07 1,418 21.3 522 12.5 1,940 18.8 933 8.8 1,007 29.8 222 1.8 785 40.8 247 31.5 538 10.8 FY08 1,340 (5.5) 626 19.9 1,966 1.3 909 (2.6) 1,057 5.0 139 (37.2) 918 16.9 342 37.3 576 7.0 FY09 1,627 21.5 765 22.2 2,392 21.7 1,104 21.5 1,288 21.9 390 179.9 898 (2.1) 245 27.3 653 13.5 FY10 2,195 34.9 965 26.0 3,159 32.1 1,350 22.2 1,810 40.5 374 (4.1) 1,436 59.9 390 27.2 1,046 60.1 FY11 3,221 46.8 897 (7.0) 4,118 30.3 1,705 26.3 2,413 33.3 646 72.8 1,767 23.1 500 28.3 1,267 21.2 FY12E 3,800 18.0 840 (6.4) 4,640 12.7 1,855 8.8 2,784 15.4 869 34.5 1,915 8.4 575 30.0 1,341 5.8 FY13E 4,115 8.3 956 13.9 5,072 9.3 2,110 13.7 2,962 6.4 1,123 29.2 1,839 (4.0) 597 32.4 1,242 (7.3)
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY07 485 2,671 41,454 22.2 734 480 1,717 47,541 2,949 1,075 14,301 27,889 26.2 192 1,135 47,541 16.9 FY08 485 2,764 19.3 591 1,115 2,201 4,902 793 FY09 485 3,162 20.1 1,311 2,040 2,081 4,853 434 FY10 485 3,925 77,688 30.8 2,832 3,020 2,392 6,699 4,469 20,881 56,114 27.1 356 1,825 31.9 FY11 560 5,933 18.6 4,620 3,020 2,612 7,184 3,275 24,204 71,435 27.3 317 2,485 20.5 FY12E 560 6,948 19.0 5,475 3,413 2,997 7,128 3,226 FY13E 560 7,865 17.0 6,391 3,993 3,526 8,340 3,766
49,437 59,390
56,592 68,469
14,898 16,911 34,238 44,139 22.8 219 1,542 19.0 28.9 335 1,796 21.0
34,672 40,242 80,722 94,445 13.0 365 2,945 18.5 17.0 413 3,437 16.7
56,592 68,469
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 3.2 0.5 2.7 0.1 2.8 1.1 3.9 2.1 1.8 0.6 1.2 14.6 17.8 2.6 0.3 2.3 0.2 2.5 1.0 3.5 1.7 1.8 0.7 1.1 16.3 18.0 2.6 0.6 2.0 0.4 2.3 0.9 3.2 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.0 18.1 18.9 2.8 0.5 2.3 0.4 2.7 0.8 3.5 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.3 19.7 26.0 3.2 0.6 2.6 0.1 2.7 0.8 3.5 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.3 18.3 23.2 3.2 0.7 2.5 0.0 2.5 0.7 3.2 1.6 1.6 0.5 1.1 17.0 19.2 2.9 0.8 2.1 0.0 2.2 0.6 2.8 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.9 17.6 15.6 9.9 1.7 3.5 9.2 1.6 3.7 8.1 1.5 4.1 5.1 1.2 4.6 4.8 0.9 5.0 4.6 0.8 4.6 4.9 0.7 4.6 11.1 65.1 3.8 11.9 67.0 4.0 13.5 75.2 4.5 21.6 90.9 5.0 22.6 116.0 5.5 24.0 131.4 5.0 22.2 146.5 5.0 1.4 0.2 1.1 0.2 88.1 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 85.6 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.3 78.5 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.4 80.4 1.4 0.4 1.4 0.5 72.5 3.0 1.2 2.4 0.6 70.0 4.1 1.4 2.4 0.7 70.0 34.5 67.3 11.3 10.0 33.6 69.3 11.6 8.5 31.4 74.3 12.2 8.0 29.4 72.2 12.9 7.6 29.1 77.5 13.3 9.0 28.2 73.6 12.9 8.7 27.8 73.6 12.5 8.4 3.3 48.1 1.2 17.8 2.7 46.2 1.1 18.0 2.7 46.2 1.0 18.9 2.8 42.7 1.3 26.0 3.3 41.4 1.3 23.2 3.3 40.0 1.1 19.2 3.0 41.6 0.9 15.6 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
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Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Andhra Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
10