State of the Market

November 2011

State of the Market

Visitation Trends
Economic Indicators
Market Performance Indicators
Forecasts

ORLANDO VISITATION

2010 Impact of Tourism

$28.3 billion in visitor spending
Tourism accounted for estimated 216,000+ direct
industry jobs; 24.4% of total private employment in
the Metro Orlando area (Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford)

$13.4 billion annual earned wages ($7.3 billion direct,

$6.1 billion indirect and induced)

Updated: August 2011

Source: Tourism Economics

Visitor Snapshot
Visitor Volumes (millions)

2007

2008

2009

48.745

48.888

46.583

51.455

53.37

3.7%

45.907

45.515

43.319

47.780

49.56

3.7%

Leisure

35.334

35.282

33.992

38.263

39.68

3.7%

Business

10.574

10.233

9.326

9.517

10.26

3.8%

International

2.838

3.343

3.264

3.675

3.82

3.8%

.783

.910

.865

.960

1.00

5.3%

Overseas

2.055

2.433

2.399

2.715

2.80

3.3%

U.K.

.990

.959

.831

.839

0.83

-0.9%

Total
Domestic

Canada

2010 f 2011

11/10

Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates; Office of Travel & Tourism Industries; Tourism Economics

millions

Metro Orlando Visitor Volume

60

International

Domestic

50
2.6
40

3.7

2.4

2.7

2.7

2.8

3.3

2.3

3.7
3.3

3.1

30

20

39.8

37.7

2000

2001

40.6

42.7

45.2

2002

2003

2004

46.7

45.1

45.9

45.5

43.3

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

47.8

10

0
2010

Sources: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries

Overnight Domestic Visitors

Over night visitors account for nearly two-thirds (64%) of all domestic
visitors. Leisure travelers represent 83% of domestic overnight visitors.
35.0
Overnight Transient Business

Overnight Conv-Group Meeting

Overnight Leisure

30.0
1.5

1.6

1.7

4.0

3.8

3.5

1.4
3.2

22.8

23.6

22.7

23.6

23.7

22.9

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

1.7

millions

25.0
20.0

1.6
4.1

1.4
3.6

1.5

1.6

3.5

3.5

1.7

3.6

3.8

1.4
3.2

15.0
10.0

19.0

18.6

20.1

2000

2001

2002

20.6

2003

25.8

5.0
0.0
2010

Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates

International Visitors
The United Kingdoms share of international visitors has declined from 35% in
2000 to 25% 2009.
4,000

Other

United Kingdom

Canada

3,500

thousands

3,000

1,761
1,474

2,500

1,394
897

2,000

984

956

1,020

830

1,312

1,000
500

889

1,568

1,065

1,500
1,073

1,876

938

990

959

831

839

1,054

1,060

973

657

693

783

910

865

960

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

657

595

505

531

631

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Sources: Visit Orlando , US Department of Commerce, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries

Overseas Visitor and U.S.

Market Share
Overseas visitors (excluding Canada & Mexico) to Orlando increased in 2010,
and Orlandos share of overseas arrivals to the U.S. increased for the third
consecutive year.
3.5

20%
Overseas Visitors

Share of US arrivals

3.0
15%

millions

2.5
2.0
1.5

11.6% 11.3%
9.8%

9.8%

9.6%

9.3%

9.2%

8.6%

10.3%
9.6% 10.1%

3.01
2.47

1.0

1.87

1.77

1.95

2.02

1.99

2.06

2.43

2.40

10%

2.72
5%

0.5
0.0

0%
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: US Department of Commerce, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries

Overseas Arrivals to the U.S.

Millions

The Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (US Department of Commerce) only
releases destination figures at year-end; monthly data is only available at the
U.S. level.
4
3
3
2
2

2011

18.4 million (+6.4%) Aug YTD

2010

26.4 million (+11.0%)

2009

23.8 million (-6.3%)

2008

25.3 million (+6.1%)

1
0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: US Department of Commerce, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries

U.S. Arrivals from Key

Overseas Markets*
U.S. arrivals from the United Kingdom and Ireland continue to decline, while
South American origin markets are showing strong growth.
2008

2009

2010

10/09

YTD
Aug 2011

Total Overseas

25,341,451

23,756,184

26,362,616

+11.0%

18,381,944

6.4%

United Kingdom

4,565,000

3,899,167

3,850,864

-1.2%

1,449,128

1.3%

Germany

1,782,000

1,686,825

1,726,193

+2.3%

1,182,967

5.9%

Brazil

769,000

892,611

1,197,866

+34.2%

939,617

27.2%

Colombia

419,000

424,526

494,739

+16.5%

311,234

1.4%

Argentina

318,000

356,428

436,192

+22.4%

341,591

17.0%

Ireland

531,000

411,203

360,492

-12.3%

221,834

-3.5%

11/10

* The Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (US Department of Commerce) only releases yearend destination figures; monthly data is only available at the U.S. level.
Source: US Department of Commerce, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Labor Market
4.7 million jobs lost in 2009; 8.36 million during 2008 & 2009
combined Approximately 2.6 million lost Jan 2001-June2003
Payroll Change

700

Natl. Unemployment

0.12

300
0.08
October

July

Apr

Jan-11

Oct

Jul

Apr

Jan-10

Oct

Jul

Apr

Jan-09

Oct

Jul

Apr

Jan-08

Oct

Jul

Apr

Jan-07

Oct

Jul

Apr

Jan-06

Oct

Jul

-100

Apr

100
0.06

Unemployment Rate

0.1

Jan-05

Job Gains or Losses (000s)

500

-300
0.04
-500
0.02
-700
-900

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Confidence Index

The Consumer Confidence has increased three consecutive months but remains below
levels associated with healthy economy (90 indicates the economy is stable, 100 or
above indicates strong growth.)
140
120
100
80

Recession
Mar-Nov 2001
9/11/01

Hurricane Katrina
August 29, 2005

60
40
20

Iraq Invasion
(Mar 03)

Recession
2008/2009

Source: The Conference Board

U.S. GDP

$14,000

GDP

Growth Rate

3%

$13,500

2%

$13,000

1%

$12,500

0%

$12,000

-1%

$11,500

-2%

$11,000

-3%

Annualized Growth Rate

Annualized Gross Domestic Product

Economic output has experienced seven consecutive quarters of growth since

bottoming in 2009 Q2, and output has surpassed prerecession levels of 2007 Q4.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

MARKET PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

o
o
o
o

Airport Passenger Traffic

Port Canaveral Cruise Passengers
Convention Center Attendance
Motel metrics

Orlando International Airport

Passenger Traffic
3,500,000
3,300,000
3,100,000
2,900,000
2,700,000
2,500,000
2,300,000
2011

24.4 million (+2.7%) Aug YTD

1,900,000

2010

34.9 million (+3.5%)

1,700,000

2009

33.7 million (-5.5%)

2,100,000

1,500,000
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority

Orlando-Sanford International Airport

Passenger Traffic
250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

2011

1.1 million (+30.6%) Aug YTD

2010

1.7 million (-7.3%)

2009

1.8 million (+3.2%)

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: Sanford Aviation Authority

Port Canaveral
Cruise Traffic
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
2011 2.4 million (+15.3%) Sep YTD

100,000

2010 2.8 million (-11.5%)

50,000
2009 3.2 million (-8.9%)
0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: Canaveral Port Authority

Orange County Convention Center

Convention & Tradeshow Attendance*
250,000

200,000

2011

872,015 (+6.8%) Sep YTD

2010

912,235 (+17.0%)

2009

779,740 (-21.7%)

Aug

Sep

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source : Orange County Convention Center

Lodging Results
Encouraging growth in demand for hotel rooms through June, partially offset by
inventory growth. Local occupancy rate exceed state and national averages.
2011 Sep YTD
Demand (% change)
Occupancy*

Orange County

Metro Orlando

Florida

National

7.5%

7.8%

7.0%

5.3%

72.6%

6.6%

68.6%

7.1%

64.4%

6.8%

61.6%

4.6%

Average Daily Rate*

$100.82

5.2%

$94.37

4.5%

$109.25

4.1%

$101.45

3.6%

RevPAR*

$73.23

12.1%

$64.74

11.9%

$70.36

11.2%

$62.54

8.3%

*Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR from Smith Travel Research does not include Disney-owned hotels
or alternative forms of accommodations such as vacation homes, timeshares, or campgrounds.

Source: Smith Travel Research; Visit Orlando Market Research & Insights

Key Lodging Markets

Occupancy Rate
2011 Sep YTD

Average Daily Rate

Rooms Sold

2011

%Change

2011

% Change

Miami, FL
Orlando, FL
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY
Las Vegas, NV *
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA
Philadelphia, PA
Atlanta, GA
San Diego, CA
Chicago, IL
Boston, MA
Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA
Washington, DC
Top 25 Markets

9.4%
7.8%
6.9%
6.2%
5.9%
5.2%
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
3.7%
3.4%
2.3%
1.1%
5.8%

75.9%
68.6%
73.4%
80.4%
85.2%
72.6%
67.3%
61.0%
71.4%
65.0%
72.4%
57.5%
69.2%
67.9%

7.8%
7.1%
6.7%
-0.6%
4.1%
5.0%
3.9%
4.5%
3.9%
3.8%
3.4%
2.8%
-0.2%
4.8%

$151.82
$94.37
$124.09
$231.49
$104.52
$114.22
$113.68
$82.84
$127.64
$115.59
$146.48
$87.71
$144.91
$122.16

4.8%
4.5%
6.2%
6.6%
10.7%
4.7%
5.4%
0.1%
3.4%
4.9%
4.6%
-0.5%
1.2%
4.6%

All Other Markets

5.1%

58.8%

4.4%

$90.51

2.8%

Source: Smith Travel Research; Visit Orlando Market Research & Insights
* Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority website June YTD

FORECASTS

Economic Forecasts
The fear of a double-dip recession has eased since the previous (2010 Q3)
survey, but the anticipated rate of growth for the US economy has slowed.
Forecasters predict GDP will grow 2.7% in 2010, down slightly from the 2.9% forecasted
in the Q3 survey. Growth rates for 2011 and 2012 were also lowered.
Slower anticipated growth translated into lower expectations for payroll growth, slower
improvement in the unemployment rate, and slightly lower inflation expectations.
2010 Q4 Survey of Professional Forecasters

2007

2008

2009

2010 f

2011 f

2012 f

Gross Domestic Product (growth rate)

2.1%

0.4%

-2.4%

2.7%

2.5%

2.9%

Unemployment

4.6%

5.8%

9.3%

9.7%

9.3%

8.7%

Inflation (headline)

2.8%

3.8%

-0.4%

1.0%

1.6%

1.9%

2.3%

2.3%

1.7%

0.8%

1.3%

1.7%

Core Inflation (excl. food & energy)

Risk of a Negative Quarter

2010 Q4

2011 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Current Survey (2010 Q4)

11.0%

12.9%

13.6%

13.2%

13.8%

Previous Survey (2010 Q3)

16.8%

16.5%

15.0%

14.9%

n/a

Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Metro Orlando Visitor Forecast

Visitor Volumes (millions)

2010

2011

11 vs 10

2012

12 vs 11

Total

51.46

53.37

3.7%

54.34

1.8%

47.78

49.56

3.7%

50.36

1.6%

38.26

39.68

3.7%

40.10

1.1%

Business

9.52

9.88

3.8%

10.26

3.8%

International

3.68

3.82

3.8%

3.98

4.2%

Canada

0.96

1.01

5.3%

1.03

2.3%

Overseas

2.72

2.80

3.3%

2.94

4.9%

.84

.83

-.9%

.85

2.8%

Domestic
Leisure

United Kingdom

Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates; Office of Travel & Tourism Industries; Tourism Economics

Metro Orlando Hotel Forecasts

Millions of Room Nights

45
40

36.9

38.4

39.7

39.7

41.1

41

29.1

29

42

42.3

40.6

40.6

40.9

27.5

27.6

26.9

26.3
25.4
24.6
Room Night Supply

2008

2009

40.8

35
30
25

26.7

20

24.5

24.9

25.5

Room Night Demand

15
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

70.9%

70.8%

2006

2007

67.7%

67.9%

2010p

2011p

75%
70%

72.6%

65%
63.7%

60%

62.6%

65.8%

62.7%

60.7%

60.6%

62.1%

55%
Metro Orlando Occupancy
50%
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010p

2011p

Source: Visit Orlando Market Research & Insights; Smith Travel Research; IHS Global Insight