Lab Assignment 1

STA 217

Sec 4

Submit to : Basanta Kumar Barmon

Department of Business Economic
East West University

Submit by : Shatil Sharyer

ID no. 2007-1-10-081

Date of Submission: March 27, 2011

Answer to question no. 1

Year
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

i)

Net
Sales
50600
67300
80800
98100
124400
156700
201400
227300
256300
280900

Time(X)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

New Net
Sales(Y)
50681
67381
80881
98181
124481
156781
201481
227381
256381
280981

Here, by using statistical software MS Excel,

Coefficients

Standar
d Error

Intercept

5447.667

8377.182

X-Variable

27093.33

1350.105

t Stat
0.65029
8
20.0675
7

P-value
0.53372
5
3.97E-08

Lower
95%
-13870.2
23979.9
8

Here we find the least square equation,

Y = a + b(t)
Y = 5447.667 + 27093.33(t)
On the Basis of this information,
Here, for 2010 t will be 14
So, The estimated sales for 2010, Y = 5447.667 + 27093.33(14)
= $ 384754.3

Upper
95%
24765.
5
30206.
7

Lower
95.0%
-13870.2
23979.9
8

Upper
95.0
%
24765
30207

ii)

Here is the net sales & trend line,

Net Sales

Net Sales & Trend Line

400000

200000

Predicted Y

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
Time

Answer to question no. 2

Year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

Import
124
175
306
524
714
1052
1638
2463
3358
4781
5388
8027
10587
13537

Time(X)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

New
import(Y)
205
256
387
605
795
1133
1719
2544
3439
4862
5469
8108
10668
13618

Log(Y)
2.311754
2.40824
2.587711
2.781755
2.900367
3.05423
3.235276
3.405517
3.536432
3.686815
3.737908
3.908914
4.028083
4.134113

i)

Here, by using statistical software MS Excel,

Coefficient
s

Intercept

2.183498

X Variable

0.144268

Standard
Error
0.02601
2
0.00305
5

t Stat
83.9428
2
47.2247
4

P-value
5.45E18
5.31E15

Lower
95%
2.12682
4
0.13761
2

Upper
95%
2.24017
3
0.15092
4

here we find the logarithmic trend,

Y* = log a + log b(t)
Y* = 2.183498 + 0.144268(t)

ii)

Here, the annual rate of increase is,

log b = 0.144268
b = antilog(0.144268) - 1
=1.394017 - 1
=.394017
=39.4017%
So, the imports of Carbon block increase at a rate 39.4017% by increasing year by a
unit.
iii)

On the Basis of this information,

For 2006, here t will be 17

So, The estimated sales for 2006, log Y = 2.183498 + 0.144268(17)
log Y = 4.636054
Y= antilog(4.636054)
Y = 43256.76 thousands of ton
So, The estimated sales for 2006 will be 43256.76 thousands of ton.

Lower
95.0%
2.1268
2
0.1376
1

Upper
95.0%
2.24017
3
0.15092
4

Answer to question no. 3

i)

Develop a Seasonalize index for each quarter.

Computation of Seasonal Index:

Year

Production
90

New
Production
171

Spring

85

166

Summer

56

137

102

183

Quarter
Winter

1998

4 quarter
Moving
Avg.

Centered
moving
average

Specific
Seasonal

164.25
167.375

0.818521

171

1.070175

172.125

1.138707

173.75

0.978417

181

0.78453

189.875

1.005925

197.125

1.247939

219

0.872146

240.75

0.74351

249.25

1.31996

254.75

1.106968

259.5

0.859345

269

0.710037

278.125

1.276404

282.875

1.173663

288.625

0.852317

291.25

0.707296

289.125

1.335063

170.5
Fall

171.5
Winter

115

196

Spring

89

170

172.75
1999

174.75
Summer

61

142
187.25

Fall

110

191

Winter

165

246

192.5
201.75
Spring

110

191

2000

236.25
Summer

98

179

248

329

245.25
Fall

253.25
Winter

201

282

Spring

142

223

256.25
2001

262.75
Summer

110

191
275.25

Fall

274

355

Winter

251

332

281
284.75
Spring

165

246

2002

292.5
Summer

125

206

Fall

305

386

290
288.25

Winter

241

322

Spring

158

239

289.125

1.113705

289.25

0.826275

291.5

0.730703

297.875

1.275703

302.5

1.143802

308

0.863636

314.375

0.709344

315.25

1.313243

315.875

1.149189

319.875

0.800313

323

0.736842

327.25

1.317036

334.25

1.109948

344.25

0.819172

290
2003

288.5
Summer

132

213

Fall

299

380

294.5
301.25
Winter

265

346
303.75

Spring

185

266

Summer

142

223

2004

312.25
316.5
Fall

333

414
314

Winter

282

363

Spring

175

256

317.75
2005

322
Summer

157

238
324

Fall

350

431
330.5

Winter

290

371
338

Spring

201

282

Summer

187

268

Fall

400

481

2006

350.5

Calculation of Seasonal Index :

Year
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total
Mean
Adjusted
Mean
Index

Winter

Spring

Summer
0.8185213
0.7845304
0.7435099
0.7100372
0.7072961
0.7307033
0.7093439
0.7368421

Fall
1.070175
1.005925
1.31996
1.276404
1.335063
1.275703
1.313243
1.317036

1.138707
1.247939
1.106968
1.173663
1.113705
1.143802
1.149189
1.109948
9.183921

0.978417
0.872146
0.859345
0.852317
0.826275
0.863636
0.800313
0.819172
6.871621

5.9407841

9.91351

1.14799

0.858953

0.742598

1.239189

1.151234
115.1234

0.86138
86.13797

0.7446963
74.46963

1.24269
124.269

Total
3.98872946

Correction factor for adjusting quarterly means:

Correction factor =

= 1.002826

Adjusted Mean = Mean * Correction Factor

Mean

Adjusted Mean

Index

Winter

1.14799007

1.151233827

115.123383

Spring

0.858952656

0.86137971

86.137971

Summer

0.742598019

0.744696301

74.4696301

Fall

1.239188714

1.242690162

124.269016

Interpretation : The production of Winter quarter are 15.12% above the typical quarter, The production
of Spring quarter are 13.87% below the typical quarter, The production of Summer quarter are 25.54%
below the typical quarter, The production of Fall quarter are 24.26% above the typical quarter.

ii)

Production for 2007 for different quarters:

Estimated Sale:
Intercept =
X variable (a) =

5.5629
163.71

Y = a + b(t)

Y = 163.71 + 5.5629(t)
Quarterly forecast production = Estimated sale(Y) * Seasonal Index

Quarter
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

Time(t)
37
38
39
40

Estimated
sale(Y)
369.5373
375.1002
380.6631
386.226

Seasonal
Index
1.151234
0.86138
0.744696
1.24269

Quarterly
forecast
production
425.4238
323.1037
283.4784
479.9593

iii)

Plot of original data and deseasonalize data :

Deseanolizes Production =

Year
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Quarter
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

Production
90
85
56
102
115
89
61
110
165
110
98
248
201
142
110
274
251
165
125
305
241
158
132
299
265
185
142
333
282
175
157
350
290
201
187
400

New
Production
171
166
137
183
196
170
142
191
246
191
179
329
282
223
191
355
332
246
206
386
322
239
213
380
346
266
223
414
363
256
238
431
371
282
268
481

Code(t)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Seasonal
Index
1.151233827
0.86137971
0.744696301
1.242690162
1.151233827
0.86137971
0.744696301
1.242690162
1.151233827
0.86137971
0.744696301
1.242690162
1.151233827
0.86137971
0.744696301
1.242690162
1.151233827
0.86137971
0.744696301
1.242690162
1.151233827
0.86137971
0.744696301
1.242690162
1.151233827
0.86137971
0.744696301
1.242690162
1.151233827
0.86137971
0.744696301
1.242690162
1.151233827
0.86137971
0.744696301
1.242690162

Deseanolizes
Production
148.5362886
192.7140819
183.9676117
147.2611642
170.2521203
197.3577948
190.6817581
153.6988108
213.6837836
221.737287
240.3664416
264.7482133
244.9545813
258.8869896
256.4803929
285.6705645
288.3862446
285.5883383
276.6228322
310.6164448
279.6999119
277.4618409
286.0226372
305.7882099
300.5471103
308.8069024
299.45093
333.1482076
315.3138759
297.1976203
319.5933692
346.8282065
322.262942
327.3817537
359.8782477
387.0634972

Interpretation : We get the deseanolize data in by dividing the New production by seasonalize index. As
a result we remove the new seasonality from the production.

Using of Deseasonalize Data to Forecast

y = 5.5629x + 163.71
2
R = 0.8864

500

Deseasonalized
Index

400
300

Linear
(Deseasonalized
Index)

200
100
0
0

10

20

30

40

Answer to question no. 4

i)

Here, we select a random sample of 50 cases from 105 cases.

When k = 6,
> 50 or, 64> 50
Class interval range =

= 343.23 = 400

Confidance Interval
N
Valid

50
0

Missing
Std. Deviation

1.1843

Range

5.00

Minimum

1.00

Maximum

6.00

confidance Interval

Valid

1300-1700
1700-2100
2100-2500
2500-2900
2900-3300
3300-3700
Total

Frequenc y
3
22
12
7
5
1
50

Percent
6.0
44.0
24.0
14.0
10.0
2.0
100.0

Valid Percent
6.0
44.0
24.0
14.0
10.0
2.0
100.0

Cumulativ e
Percent
6.0
50.0
74.0
88.0
98.0
100.0

ii)

Selling Price
N

Valid

50

Missing

Mean

2224.4520

Median

2110.6500
2090.30a

Mode
Std. Deviation

467.7359

Variance

218776.9

Range

2059.40

Percentiles

10
25

1710.1400

50

2110.6500

75

2525.3000

90

2938.3100

1875.4000

a. Multiple modes exist. The smallest value is shown

iii)

Bar Diagram for Variable Confidance Interval :

confidance Interval
N
Valid

50

Missing

confidance I nterval
30

20

Frequency

10

0
1 30 0-1 70 0 1 70 0-2 10 0 2 10 0-2 50 0 2 50 0-2 90 0 2 90 0-3 30 0 3 30 0-3 70 0

c onfidanc e Int erval

Comment: From the Bar diagram, we find, the the majority number of selling price (22) in 1700-2100
class interval. and fewer number of selling price (01) is in 3300-3700 class interval.

iv)
Bar Diagram for Variable Township :
Statistics
Tow ns hip
N
Valid
Mis sing

50
0

Township
16
14
12
10
8

Frequency

6
4
2
0
Gulsha n

Utta ra

DOHS

Dha nm on di

Ban an i

Township

Comment: From the Bar diagram, we find, the the majority number of apartment situated in Dhanmondi
(14) and fewer apartment is situated in Banani (6).

Pie chart for Variable Township :

Township
B an an i
1 2.0 %

Gulsha n
2 0.0 %

Dha nm on di
2 8.0 %

Utta ra
1 8.0 %

DOHS
2 2.0 %

Comment: From the Pie chart, we find, the the majority portion of apartment situated in Dhanmondi
(28.0%) and fewer apartment is situated in Banani (12.0%).

v)

Develop a box plot for variable Distance

Cas e Proce ss ing Summ ary

Valid
Percent

N
Distance f rom the
centre of the city

Cases
Mis sing
N
Percent

50

100.0%

.0%

Total
Percent

50

100.0%

Distance from the ce

10

20

30

Comment : a) The distribution is negatively skewed.

b) Mean < Median

c) There is no outlier.

Answer to question no. 5

i)

Determining the coefficient of skewness for variable Selling Price

Selling Price
N

Valid
Missing

Skewness
Std. Error of Skewness

50
0
.696
.337

Comment : A positive skewness indicates a greater number of smaller values, and a negative value
indicates a greater number of larger values. The coefficient of skewness is .696 .So the distribution
is positively skewed. And mean > median .

ii)
Cas e Proce ss ing Sum m ary

N
Selling Price

Valid
Percent
50
100.0%

Cases
Mis sing
N
Percent
0
.0%

Total
Percent
50
100.0%

Sell ing Price

1000

2000

3000

4000

Comment : From the box plot, we find, there are no Outlier. And the distribution is positively
skewed. And mean > median .