The Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities Project (CEUS SSC):

(CEUS-SSC): Updating Seismic Source Models for the Next Generation of Critical Facilities
Jon Ake U.S. NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research Regulatory Information Conference March 11, 2009
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Outline
Regulatory Background Existing Seismic Hazard Models Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Report Need for a new study Scope and Status Summary
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Seismic Hazards-Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE)

Deterministic The earthquake which would cause the maximum vibratory ground motion at the site. Defined by peak ground acceleration (pga) and standardized response spectra.
(10 CFR Part 100 Appendix A)
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Probabilistic Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) incorporates the effects of all earthquakes capable of affecting the site including uncertainty.
(10 CFR Part 100.23, 1997present)

Current Regulatory Guidance

Regulatory Guide 1.208 provides general guidance on procedures acceptable to NRC staff to satisfy 10 CFR 100.23. -Perform a PSHA (incorporating uncertainty) -Conduct site and region specific geoscience/geotechnical investigations -Allows use of EPRI or LLNL probabilistic seismic hazard models as a starting point
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Previous PSHA Studies

The NRC began using PSHA in the early 1980s as a tool to better understand deterministic seismic hazard assessments (and associated uncertainties) and input for risk-informed and performance-based safety evaluations. l ti Two major PSHA regional-scale studies were performed in the 1980s and early 1990s, EPRI-SOG (1986,1989) and LLNL (1985, 1993). Both were multi-studies (multiple years, multiple millions of $, multiple experts, multiple feet of bookshelf space for documentation). Defined the state of the art at the time.
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However,
Comparison of Mean PHA Hazard: LLNL (NUREG-1488) and EPRI (NP-6935D)
1.0E-02
EPRI LLNL

Annual Frequency of Exceed dence

1.0E-03

1.0E-04

1.0E-05

1.0E-06 0.01

0.1

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Peak Horizontal Acceleration (g)

Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC)

A group of senior experts assembled to evaluate the differences between the EPRI and LLNL studies and provide guidance on the conduct of PSHA PSHA. Concluded the differences in the results were primarily procedural rather than technical. The report focused on the appropriate use of experts (NUREG/CR-6372). The guidance has now been used for several major studies (Yucca Mountain (2), Swiss PEGASOS study, EPRI ground motion update, BC Hydro).

SSHAC Methodology
Provides a framework for incorporating scientific assessments > The views of the larger scientific community are fundamental (Goal to incorporate the center, body and range of the Informed Technical Community (ITC)) > Competing scientific hypotheses can be compared and uncertainties captured > Leads to defined expert roles (Focus on evaluation and integration) and an emphasis on expert interaction > Results represent a snapshot in time
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SSHAC Framework

Courtesy of K. Coppersmith

TI: Technical Integrator TFI: Technical Facilitator Integrator

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The Need for a New CEUS-SSC Model

A need exists for a fully updated generic seismic source model for the CEUS that post dates issuance of 10 CFR 100.23. More than 20 years have past and significant new research results exist that are not represented in the original EPRI/LLNL models. Recent COL applications have used the EPRI model with updates. Expense and consistency of updates to the existing PSHA source model is an issue. The existence of multiple hazard models (LLNL, EPRI, USGS) is problematic. A model that meets the needs of multiple users/sponsors/regulators would be of great value.
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The CEUS-SSC Project

Multiple sponsors (Industry/EPRI, DOE, NRC) Conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 with a TI team, PPRP, and sponsor reviewers. Large pool of experience represented represented. Major emphasis on the compilation of a data base of relevant seismological, geological, geophysical, and tectonic information. SSC: where earthquakes will occur, how big will they be, and how often will they happen.
PPRP: Participatory Peer Review Panel
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Earthquakes and NPPs

USGS Catalog of Felt/Damaging Earthquakes in the USA 1568 - 2004

Nuclear power plant locations

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CEUS-SSC Project

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CEUS-SSC Project
Task
Retain Participatory Peer Review Panel Database Development Seismicity Catalog Assessment of Hazard-Significant Issues Workshop 1 Significant Issues and Databases Workshop 2 Alternative Interpretations Construct Preliminary SSC Model Develop Hazard Input Document and SSC Sensitivity Analyses Perform Preliminary Hazard Calculations and Sensitivity Analyses Workshop 3 Feedback Finalize SSC Model Document CEUS SSC Project in Draft Report Review Draft Report by PPRP and Others Finalize and Issue CEUS SSC report Meeting with NRC and DNFSB DNFSB: Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board

Schedule
April May 2008 April 2008 May 2009 April 2008 June 2009 April July 2008 July 22 23 2008 February 18 20 2009 December 2008 Aug 2009 May June 2009 June July 2009 August 25 26 2009 August November 2009 Oct 2009 February 2010 February March 2010 April July 2010 August 2010

1989 EPRI-SOG Source Regions

The EPRI-SOG study provided seismic source geometries for CEUS. Six independent expert teams developed independent models. The example shown is for the Dames and Moore source model.

In CEUS seismic sources are usually defined as area sources, since earthquakes cannot be correlated directly with existing faults.
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Tectonic-Based Seismic Sources

BEC: Bechtel Earth Science Team

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Alternative Tectonic Sources: USGS Model

Courtesy of K. Coppersmith 18

CEUS-SSC Results
Results will be a SSC Model (where, how big and how often). Must be used with Ground Motion Prediction Model to produce hazard estimates. To use for site licensing, applicable regulatory guidance (e.g. NRC R.G. 1.208) should be followed. Involves augmenting CEUS-SSC model with site specific evaluation within region (200 mile radius) and site vicinity (25 mile radius).
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SUMMARY: CEUS-SSC for Nuclear Facilities Project

A major multi-sponsor Seismic Source Characterization project is currently underway. The results will replace the existing EPRI-SOG and LLNL source models. The major objectives are to provide stability (public confidence that the views of the larger ITC have been represented) and longevity (technical framework remains valid in the future, even as new information becomes available). Broad participation from industry, NRC, DOE, USGS, academia. Target completion date of late-2010.
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