Chapter 2

PROBABILITY

By

Dr. A. Mustafa
Chapter 2. Probability. By Dr. A. Mustafa 1

1- Definitions:
Random Experiment
By an experiment (or random experiment) we will mean any procedure that:
1- can be repeated, theoretically, any number of times under identical conditions.
2- has a well-defined set of possible outcomes in advance.
3- any performance of the experiment results in an outcome that is not known to
certain occur in advance.

Sample Space.
The Sample Space, denoted by S, is the collection of all possible outcomes of that
experiment.

For example,
in throwing a six-sided die, then the corresponding sample space, S consists the six
possible scores, and this is usually written in the form
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }.
Event
An event A is a collection of some of the possible outcomes of the random
experiment.
¾ Union of Events.
A ∪ B is defined as the set of outcomes which belong to either A or B both. Thus,

the event ( A ∪ B ) occurs whenever A or B occurs or both occur.

¾ Intersection of events.
The intersection of A and B written as A ∩ B is defined as the set of outcomes
which belong to both A and B. The set ( A ∩ B ) occurs when both A and B occur.
¾ Mutually exclusive Events.
Two events A and B are called mutually exclusive if both A and B cannot
occur in the same time i.e. if A ∩ B = φ , so that A and B are disjoint

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Chapter 2. Probability. By Dr. A. Mustafa 2

¾ Complimentary event.
Given an event A, the complimentary, A , is defined as that subset of S which do
not belong to A.

2- Classical Probability
We may define probability in the classical sense as follows:
If a random experiment can result in N mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes,
n(A) of which corresponds to the occurrence of some event A, then the probability that
the event A will occur, denoted by P(A), will defined as the ratio n(A) / N,
symbolically.

n (A ) number of outcomes belong to A

P(A) = =
N total number of outcomes belong to S

Example 1. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least one head
occurs?

Solution The sample space for this experiment is

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
If the coin is fair, each of the outcomes would be equally likely to occur. If A represents
the event of occurring at least 1 head then,
A = {HH, HT, TH}
Hence,
P(A) = 3 4

Example 2 There are 15 balls numbered from 1 to 15 in a bag. If a person selects

one at random, what is the probability that the number printed on the ball will be
(i) a prime number greater than 5.
(ii) an odd number less than 9.

Solution Let A1 = {a prime number greater than 5}, A 2 = {an odd number less than
9}
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Chapter 2. Probability. By Dr. A. Mustafa 3

Then
A 1 = {7,11,13} , A 2 = {1,3,5,7} , N=15, n (A 1 ) = 3 , n (A 2 ) = 4

n (A 1 ) 3 1 n (A 2 ) 4
∴ P(A 1 ) = = = , P(A 2 ) = = .
N 15 5 N 15
Find P(A 1 ∪ A 2 ) and P(A 1 ∩ A 2 ) ?

3- Probability of an Event
The probability of A, denoted by P(A), for any event A, must satisfy the following
fundamental properties;
(i) P (A) ≥ 0, since for any event A, n(A) ≥ 0 and N > 0.
(ii) P(S) = 1, Since P(S) = N/ N = 1.
(iii) If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B),
Since;
n (A ∪ B) n (A) + n (B)
P(A ∪ B) = = = P(A) + P(B)
N N

Example 3 Three horses A, B and C are in a race. A is twice as likely to win as B

and B is twice as likely to win as C. what is their respective probabilities of winning, i.e.
P(A), P(B) and P(C)?

Solution Let, P(C) = p,

Since B is twice as likely to win as C, then
P(B) = 2p,
and since A is twice as likely to win as B, then P(A) = 4P.Now the sum of the
probabilities must be one (by property II), hence

P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1,

i.e.
4p + 2p + p = 1
Therefore, p = 1/7, and accordingly
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Chapter 2. Probability. By Dr. A. Mustafa 4

P(A) = 4p = 4/7, P(B) = 2p = 2/7 and P(C) = p = 1/7

4- Some Rules of Probability

1- If A is the complementary event of A, then P(A) = 1 − P(A)
2- For the impossible event (null set) φ, P(φ) = 0
3- If A and B are any two events, then

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

In particular, when A and B are mutually exclusive,
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B).
Example 4. The probability that a student passes mathematics is 0.85, and the
probability that he passes English is 0.8. If the probability of passing at least one course
is 0.9, what is the probability that he will pass both courses?
Solution If M is the event "passing mathematic" and E the event "passing English",
then by transposing the terms in the Additive Rule, we have

P(M ∪ E) = P(M) + P(E) – P(M ∩ E)

0.9 = 0.85 + 0.80 – P(M ∩ E)

P(M ∩ E) = 0.75

5- Conditional probability
The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by P(B/A), is
P(A ∩ B)
P( B | A ) = if P(A ) > 0
P(A )

Example 5. The probability that a student, selected at random from a certain

College, will pass a certain economics course is 4/5 and will pass both economics and
statistics courses is 1/2 What is the probability that he will pass statistics if it is known
that he had passed economics?

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Chapter 2. Probability. By Dr. A. Mustafa 5

Solution If E is the event "passing economics" and T the event "passing statistics",
then
P( E ∩ T ) 1 / 2 5
P(T | E ) = = =
P( E ) 4/5 8

6- Independent Events
Informally speaking two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence or
nonoccurrence of either one does not affect the probability of the occurrence of the
other.
Symbolically, the events A and B are said to be independent if either

P(B|A) = P(B) Or P(A|B) = P(A)

Then
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B) .

Otherwise, A and B are dependent.

Example 6. A fair coin is tossed three times. If A is the event that a head occurs on
each of the first two tosses, B is the event that a tail occurs on the third toss, and C is the
event that exactly two tails occur in the tree tosses, how that
(a) events A and B are independent;
(b) events B and C are dependent.

Solution Since the coin is fair then the eight possible outcomes, HHH, HHT, HTH,
THH, HTT, THT, TTH, and TTT, are equally likely, and

A = {HHH, HHT}, B = {HHT, HTT, THT, TTT}, C = {HTT, THT, TTH}

A ∩ B = {HHT}, B ∩ C = {HTT, THT}

The assumption that the eight possible outcomes are all equiprobable yields

P(A) = 1 4 , P(B) = 1 2 , P(C) = 3 8 , P(A ∩ B) = 1 8 , P(B ∩ C) = 1 4

(a) Since P(A).P(B) = 1 2 . 1 4 = P(A ∩ B), the events A and B are independent.

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Chapter 2. Probability. By Dr. A. Mustafa 6

(b) Since P(B).P(C) = 1 4 . 1 2 ≠ P(B ∩ C), the events B and A are not independent.

Example 7. One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second bag
contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from the first bag and placed
unseen in the second bag. What is the probability that a ball now drawn from the second
bag is black?
Solution Let B1 , B 2 , and W1 represent, respectively, the drawing of a black ball from
bag 1, a black ball from bag 2, and a white ball from bag 1. We are interested in the
union of the mutually exclusive events (B1 and B 2 ) , ( W1 and B 2 ) . Then,

P[(B1 and B 2 ) or ( W1 ∩ B 2 )] = P[(B1 ∩ B 2 ) ∪ ( W1 ∩ B 2 )]

= P(B1 ∩ B 2 ) + P( W1 ∩ B 2 )

= P(B1 )P(B 2 / B1 ) + P( W1 )P(B 2 / W1 )

3 6 4 5 38
= ( )( ) + ( )( ) =
7 9 7 9 63
7- Methods of Enumeration
Multiplication Rule
If one operation can be performed in n, different ways and a second operation can be
performed in n 2 different ways,.., and finally a k-th operation can be performed in
n k different ways, then the number of ways all these k operations can be carried out is

the product
n 1 n 2 ... n k

Permutations
Suppose that we are given n distinct objects and wish to arrange of these objects in a
line. Then the number of different arrangements, or permutations as they are often
called, is given by

n
Pr = n (n − 1)(n − 2)...(n − r + 1)

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Chapter 2. Probability. By Dr. A. Mustafa 7

n!
=
(n − r )!

In the particular case when r = n, n Pr becomes

n
Pn = n (n − 1)...3 × 2 × 1 = n!

which is called n factorial.

Example 8. The number of different arrangements or permutation consisting of 3
letters each which can be formed from the 7 letters A, B, C, D, E, F, G is
7! 7!
7
P3 = = = 7 × 6 × 5 = 210.
(7 − 3)! 4!

Suppose that a set consists of n objects of which n 1 are similar of one type (i.e.
indistinguishable from each other), n 2 are similar of a second type,…, n k are similar of
a k-th type. Here of course,
n = n 1 + n 2 + ... + n k

Then the number of different permutations of the objects is

n n!
Pn1 ,n 2 ,...,n 3
n 1! n 2 !...n k !

Example 9. The number of different permutations of the 8 letters of the word

MANSOWRA, which consists of 1 M, 2 A'2, |N, | S, | O, | U and | R is
8!
= 20160 .
1! 2! 1! 1!1!1!1!

Example 10. It is required to seat 5 men and 4 women in a row so that the women
occupy the even places. How many such arrangements are possible?
Solution The men may be seated in 5! Ways and the women in 4! Ways. Each
arrangement of the men may be associated with each arrangement of the women. Hence
Number of arrangements = 5! × 4! = 2880
Example 11 Four different mathematics books, 6 different physics books, and two
different chemistry books are to be arranged on a shelf. How many different
arrangements are possible if

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Chapter 2. Probability. By Dr. A. Mustafa 8

(a) the books in each particular subject must all stand together,
(b) Only the math books must stand together?

Solution (a) The Math. Books can be arranged among themselves in 4! Ways, the
physics books in 6! Ways, the chemistry books in 2! Ways, and the three groups in 3!
Ways. Thus the number of arrangements = 4! 6! 2! 3! = 207360
(b) Consider the four Mathematics Books as one big book. Then we have 9 books
which can be arranged in 9! Ways. In all of these ways the Mathematics Books are
together. But the Math. Books can be arranged among themselves in 4! Ways. Hence
the number of arrangements = 9! 4! = 8709120.

Combinations
In a permutation we are interested in the order of arrangement of the objects. In many
problems, however, we are interested only are called combinations. For example ABC
and BCA are the same combination.
The total number of combinations of r objects selected from n different objects (also
called the combinations of n thing taken r at a time) is denoted by n C r or
⎛n⎞
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ , and is given by
⎝r ⎠

⎛n⎞ n n!
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟= C r =
⎝r ⎠ r!(n − r )!

It can also be written as

⎛ n ⎞ n (n − 1)...(n − r + 1) Prn
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ = =
⎝r ⎠ r! r!

It is easy to show that

⎛n⎞ ⎛ n ⎞
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
⎝r ⎠ ⎝n − r⎠

Example 12 Out of 5 mathematicians and 7 physicists, a committee consisting of 2

mathematicians and 3 physicists is to be formed. In how many ways this be done if
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Chapter 2. Probability. By Dr. A. Mustafa 9

(a) Any mathematicians and any physicists can be included.

(b) One particular physicist must be in the committee.
(c) Two particular mathematicians cannot be on the committee.

Solution 2 maths. Out of 5 can be selected in

⎛5⎞
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ways,
⎝ 2⎠

⎛7⎞
and 3 physicists out of 7 can be selected in ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ways.
3 ⎝ ⎠
Hence the total number of possible elections is
⎛5 ⎞ ⎛7⎞
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ = 10 × 35 = 350 .
⎝ 2⎠ ⎝3 ⎠

⎛5⎞
(b) 2 math. Out of 5 can be selected in ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ways, and 2 physicists out of 6 can be
⎝ 2⎠

⎛6⎞
selected in ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ways. Hence the total number of possible elections is
2
⎝ ⎠

⎛5⎞ ⎛6⎞
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ = 150 .
⎝ 2⎠ ⎝ 2⎠

⎛3⎞
(c) 2 math. Out of 3 can be selected in ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ways, and 3 physicists out of 7 can be
⎝ 2⎠

⎛7⎞
selected in ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ways. Hence the total number of possible elections is
3
⎝ ⎠

⎛3 ⎞⎛7⎞
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ = 150 .
⎝ 2⎠ ⎝3 ⎠

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Chapter 2. Probability. By Dr. A. Mustafa 10

EXERCISES 2

1- Three students A, B and C are in a swimming race. A and B have the same
probability of winning and each is twice as likely to win as C.

(a) What is the probability that A does not win?

(b) What is the probability that B or C wins?
2- From a box containing 5 black balls and 3 green balls, 2 balls are drawn in
succession, the first ball being replaced in the box before the second draw is made.
(a) What is the probability that both balls are the same color?
(b) What is the probability that color is represented?
3- Let A and B events with P(A) = 1/4, P(A ∪ B) = 1/3 and P(B) = p.
(a) Find p if A and B are mutually exclusive.
(b) Find p if A and B are independent.
(c) Find p if A is a subset of B.
4- Let A and B events with P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 1/3 and P(A ∪ B) = 7/12. Find P(A / B)
and P(B / A) .
5- Find P(B/A) in the following cases
(i) If A and B are mutually exclusive.
(ii) If A is subset of B.
(iii) If B is a subset of A.
6- The probability that a student, selected at random from certain college, passes
computer is 0.8, the probability that he passes statistic is 0.6 and the probability of
passing at least one of them is 0.9.
(a) If the student passed computer, what is the probability that he also passes
statistic.?
(b) If the student failed statistic., what is the probability that he also failed
computer?
(c) What is the probability that he failed both courses?
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Chapter 2. Probability. By Dr. A. Mustafa 11

7- Out of 5 mathematicians and 7 statisticians, a committee consisting of 2 maths and

3 statis. Is to be formed. In how many ways this be done if
(a) Any mathematician and any statistician can be included.
(b) One particular statistician must be on the committee.
(c) Two particular mathematicians cannot be on the committee.
8- A student is to answer 7 out of 10 questions on an examination. How many choices
has he, if he must answer at least 3 of the first 5 questions?

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