Thursday, 20 October 2011

Adrianus Bias Prasuryo (021)2854-8116 adrianus.bias@e-samuel.com

Cement Sector
9M11 domestic growth reached 16.3%

Overweight
JCI Index: 3,622

Accelerated demand growth in 9M11. Konsumsi semen domestic di 9M11 mencapai 34.3 juta ton atau mencatat pertumbuhan Ytd. tertinggi tahun ini sebesar 16.3% YoY. Sementara secara MoM, konsumsi semen domestik di bulan Sept 11 naik 6.6% MoM seiring mulai meredanya efek libur lebaran di akhir bulan Agustus, dan secara YoY melonjak 50.3% karena dalam 3 tahun terakhir, libur lebaran jatuh di bulan September. Penjualan ekspor masih relatif rendah, turun 55% YoY di 9M11 seiring produsen fokus memenuhi permintaan domestik yang sangat kuat didorong oleh suku bunga rendah dan lonjakan penjualan sektor properti. 11F domestic demand may post double digit growth. Dengan pencapaian konsumsi domestik di 9M11 yang telah mencapai 78% dari target awal kami, sangat mungkin pertumbuhan konsumsi domestik di 2011

SECTOR UPDATE

mencetak double digit growth atau sekitar 12-14%. Secara historis, konsumsi semen di kuartal 4 relatif lebih tinggi dan seringkali mencetak level tertinggi di bulan Desember seiring eksekusi belanja infrastruktur pemerintah, sedangkan efek musim hujan secara historis baru terasa di awal tahun. INPT still on the lead on total sales basis. Jika dilihat secara total volume penjualan termasuk ekspor, di 9M11 INTP mencatatkan pertumbuhan tertinggi yakni 12.2%, lebih tinggi dari sektor yang hanya 11.5% YoY. Dengan ini, kami mengantisipasi INTP akan membukukan pertumbuhan kinerja paling tinggi di 9M11. Sementara SMCB meski berhasil membukukan pertumbuhan volume penjualan 9.9%, pertumbuhan kinerja di 9M11 tidak akan terlalu tinggi seiring strategi perseroan untuk tidak menaikkan harga jual dan tekanan biaya distribusi untuk merebut market share di beberapa wilayah seperti Jawa Timur dan Sumatera. 4Q11 demand should perform well. Kami melihat konsumsi domestik di 4Q11 akan tetap tinggi didorong oleh percepatan eksekusi belanja pemerintah yang juga akan berperan meningkatkan konsumsi semen di luar Jawa. SMGR akan paling diuntungkan dengan kenaikan demand di luar Jawa ditambah dengan optimalnya utilisasi produksi SMGR pasca plant maintenance . MAINTAIN OVERWEIGHT.
SMGR Last price (10/19/11) EPS '11F (Rp ) EPS growth '11F (%) ROE '12F (%) P/E '12F (x) EV/EBITDA '12F (x) EV/Capacity (US$/ton) Target Price Recommendation 8,650 694 14.8 31.7 10.0 6.3 248.0 11,200 BUY INTP 14,300 990 10.2 24.7 11.2 6.0 234.7 19,500 BUY SMCB 1,860 133 8.5 13.1 12.8 6.9 175.4 2,400 HOLD

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

Thursday, 20 October 2011

Adrianus Bias Prasuryo (021)2854-8116 adrianus.bias@e-samuel.com Figure 1. Indonesia monthly cement sales
(k'tons)

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000 ` 2,500

2,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr

2008

May

Jun
2009

Jul

Aug
2010

Sep

Oct
2011F

Nov

Dec

Source: ASI

Figure 2. Indonesia cement sales by region

(in '000 tons) Java Sumatera Kalimantan Sulawesi NTT Maluku & Papua Total Domestic Exported Cement Exported Clinker Total Export GRAND TOTAL
Source: ASI

Sep-11 2,096 871 280 293 249 54 3,843 6 166 172 4,015

Sep-10 1,276 616 191 222 181 71 2,556 69 255 324 2,880

Aug-11 1,956 810 254 307 206 69 3,603 6 97 103 3,706

Growth (%) YoY MoM 64.3 41.3 47.2 32.0 37.4 (23.8) 50.3 (90.8) (34.9) (46.8) 39.4 7.1 7.6 10.4 (4.7) 20.4 (22.6) 6.6 12.1 71.5 68.2 8.3

9M11 18,849 7,994 2,428 2,491 1,953 600 34,315 179 773 952 35,267

9M10 15,817 6,974 2,117 2,174 1,741 686 29,508 472 1,642 2,114 31,622

Growth YoY (%) 19.2 14.6 14.7 14.6 12.2 (12.5) 16.3 (62.1) (52.9) (55.0) 11.5

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

Thursday, 20 October 2011

Adrianus Bias Prasuryo (021)2854-8116 adrianus.bias@e-samuel.com Figure 3. Java retain its domination
65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 42.5% 37.5% 39.7% 44.2% 62.5%

60.3%
57.5% 55.8% 55.0% 53.8% 54.3% 54.9% 54.9%

45.0%

46.2%

45.7%

45.1%

45.1%

40%
35% 30% 25% 20%

2005

2006

2007 Java

2008

2009

2010 Ex-Java

3M11

6M11

9M11

Source: ASI

Figure 4. Companys 6M11 domestic sales recap

Volume ('000 tons) SMGR INTP SMCB Others Total
Source: ASI

Sep-11 1,625 1,197 580 440 3,843

Sep-10 1,125 782 328 320 2,556

Aug-11 1,460 1,109 581 454 3,603

% Chg (YoY) 44.4 53.1 76.5 37.5 50.3

% Chg (MoM) 11.3 8.0 (0.2) (2.9) 6.6

9M11 13,983 10,731 5,365 4,237 34,315

9M10 12,691 9,191 4,015 3,611 29,508

% Chg (YoY) 10.2 16.7 33.6 17.3 16.3

Figure 5. Companys 6M11 total sales recap

Volume ('000 tons) SMGR INTP SMCB Others Total
Source: ASI
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

Sep-11 1,631 1,279 639 466 4,015

Sep-10 1,162 913 481 324 2,880

Aug-11 1,465 1,137 613 491 3,706

% Chg (YoY) 40.3 40.1 32.9 43.9 39.4

% Chg (MoM) 11.3 12.5 4.3 (5.1) 8.3

9M11 14,059 11,197 5,659 4,352 35,267

9M10 12,865 9,977 5,151 3,630 31,622

% Chg (YoY) 9.3 12.2 9.9 19.9 11.5

Thursday, 20 October 2011

Adrianus Bias Prasuryo (021)2854-8116 adrianus.bias@e-samuel.com

Semen Gresik
Cement
Company Background
10F 14,521 -7,519 7,001 48.2 4,582 31.6 5,328 36.7 64 4,656 -1,071 3,557 24.5 11F 16,625 -8,591 8,033 48.3 5,278 31.8 6,243 37.6 -34 5,255 -1,104 4,118 24.8 12F 18,979 -9,202 9,777 51.5 6,537 34.4 7,653 40.3 -64 6,484 -1,362 5,081 26.8

Profit and Loss Statement

Rpbn Revenue COGS Gross profit Gross margin (%) Operating profit Operating margin (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Other Income (Expenses) Pre-tax profit Income tax - net Net profit Net profit margin (%) 09A 14,388 -7,614 6,774 47.1 4,343 30.2 4,768 33.1 302 4,655 -1,302 3,326 23.1

PT Semen Gresik manufactures cement including portland cement, oil well cement, and mixed cement. Through its subsidiaries, the company also develops and operates an industrial estate, mines limestone and clay, and packages and distributes cement. Shareholding Structure Government of RI Capital World Public Price Chart
160
SMGR JCI

: : :

51.0% 5.6% 44.4%

140

Balance Sheet
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Cash & ST Investment Receivables Inventories Others Total Current Assets Net fixed assets Other assets Total Assets Payables ST. debt and curr. maturity Other current liabilities LT. debt Other long term liabilities Total Liabilities Total Equity 09A 4,235 1,440 1,408 1,125 8,207 4,014 730 12,951 776 91 1,427 107 231 2,633 10,198 10F 4,148 1,512 1,476 726 7,862 6,967 470 15,300 781 91 1,294 1,107 206 3,479 11,700 11F 3,594 1,732 1,686 831 7,843 10,006 600 18,449 892 30 1,478 2,107 218 4,726 13,602 12F 3,938 1,977 1,806 949 8,669 11,639 535 20,843 956 0 1,584 2,107 212 4,859 15,864

120 100 80
60

Dec-10

Nov-10

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

May-11

Aug-11

Mar-11

Sep-11

Oct-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Jun-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Thursday, 20 October 2011

Adrianus Bias Prasuryo (021)2854-8116 adrianus.bias@e-samuel.com

Indocement TP
Cement
Profit and Loss Statement
Rpbn Revenue COGS Gross profit Gross margin (%) Operating profit Operating margin (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Other Income (Expenses) Pre-tax profit Income tax - net Net profit Net profit margin (%) 09A 10,576 -5,468 5,108 48.3 3,693 34.9 4,241 40.1 92 3,796 -1,048 2,747 26.0 10F 11,239 -5,369 5,870 52.2 4,269 38.0 5,005 44.5 130 4,409 -1,102 3,307 29.4 11F 12,599 -6,100 6,499 51.6 4,686 37.2 5,475 43.5 164 4,859 -1,215 3,643 28.9 12F 14,321 -6,382 7,939 55.4 6,036 42.2 6,950 48.5 204 6,250 -1,562 4,686 32.7

Company Background PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa manufactures cement and building materials. Through its subsidiaries, the company also manufactures and processes ready mix cement as well as owns and manages properties and hotels.

Shareholding Structure
HC Indocement Public : : 51.0% 49.0%

Price Chart
160
INTP JCI

140 120 100 80 60

Feb-11 May-11 Dec-10
Nov-10

Balance Sheet
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Cash & ST Investment Receivables Inventories Others Total Current Assets Net fixed assets Other assets Total Assets Payables ST. debt and curr. maturity Other current liabilities LT. debt Other long term liabilities Total Liabilities Total Equity 09A 2,623 1,345 1,269 85 5,323 7,773 180 13,276 489 304 978 38 763 2,572 10,681 10F 5,319 1,205 1,367 207 8,098 7,958 199 16,255 382 323 1,779 3 742 3,230 13,002 11F 7,074 1,351 1,553 219 10,197 8,251 190 18,637 434 275 1,994 -27 753 3,429 15,185 12F 7,820 1,535 1,625 256 11,236 9,813 194 21,244 454 250 2,267 -27 747 3,691 17,530

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

Aug-11

Sep-11

Mar-11

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Thursday, 20 October 2011

Adrianus Bias Prasuryo (021)2854-8116 adrianus.bias@e-samuel.com

Holcim Indonesia
Cement
Profit and Loss Statement
Rpbn Revenue COGS Gross profit Gross margin (%) Operating profit Operating margin (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Other Income (Expenses) Pre-tax profit Income tax - net Net profit Net profit margin (%) 09A 5,944 (3,694) 2,250 37.8 1,398 23.5 1,840 31.0 (101) 1,297 (385) 896 15.1 10A 5,961 (3,711) 2,249 37.7 1,333 22.4 1,729 29.0 (185) 1,148 (318) 828 13.9 11F 6,956 (4,423) 2,534 36.4 1,459 21.0 2,015 29.0 (224) 1,235 (309) 925 13.3 12F 7,771 (4,762) 3,009 38.7 1,774 22.8 2,407 31.0 (220) 1,553 (388) 1,163 15.0

Company Background PT Holcim Indonesia produces cement and operates other related activities. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures and markets ready-mix concrete, operates stone quarries, and provides transportation services.

Shareholding Structure Holderfin B.V. : Public : Price Chart

160
SMCB JCI

80.6% 19.4%

140 120

Balance Sheet
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Cash & ST Investment Receivables Inventories Others Total Current Assets Net fixed assets Other assets Total Assets Payables ST. debt and curr. maturity Other current liabilities LT. debt Other long term liabilities Total Liabilities Total Equity 09A 380 664 382 50 1,476 5,461 328 7,265 315 175 672 1,940 847 3,949 3,315 10F 1,070 643 500 40 2,253 7,893 291 10,437 456 394 506 1,730 525 3,611 6,823 11F 3,701 947 553 139 5,340 6,516 309 12,165 491 316 580 2,527 686 4,600 7,562 12F 3,703 1,058 595 155 5,511 7,670 300 13,482 529 290 648 2,873 605 4,945 8,533

100 80 60

Feb-11

May-11

Dec-10

Nov-10

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

Aug-11

Sep-11

Mar-11

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Jul-11