Managing Complexity in Brazil Simon Robinson July 12th 2011 Summary It could be argued that Brazil is currently at a huge

turning point in its history. It is both a country of great natural and economic wealth, and with the economic demise of many western nations, Brazil is emerging as a potential leader on the world stage. Both the world cup in 2014 and the olympic games in 2016 offer Brazil the opportunity to demonstrate its modernity, progress and creativity to a global audience. Managing Complexity in Brazil Hosting an event of such magnitude as the world cup presents many inter-related challenges for Brazil, far beyond the mere technical challenge of building new football stadium for example. The range of issues includes: Developing the transport infrastructure Developing the hotel and hospitality infrastructure Managing communications for all stakeholders Managing the commercial opportunities for Brazilian and international commercial interests Exploiting the event for future international investment and tourism in Brazil On the other side, there are issues that could potentially have a negative impact on Brazil: Negative publicity due to incomplete or inadequate infrastructure Rapidly increasing investment costs (for many different reasons) Environmental impact, both in terms of ecology and urban areas Social impact on Brazils population, i.e. limited benets for the poorer social classes

One simple framework that has been used extensively to understand complexity is the Cynen framework (Snowdon and Boone, 2007). The framework was not designed to solve problems. It is not a problem solving tool, it is a diagnostic tool, it helps make sense of situations. It was designed to be able to understand the nature of the problem and the form of response. The framework consists of ve domains. These are Simple Complicated Complex Chaotic Disorder

The key insight from the framework is that it allows leaders to identify what domain a project is in. A project such as building a sports stadium is usually thought of as complicated. It requires the extensive use of expert knowledge, but the problem is fully

knowable. With the right expertise across many skills sets and domains, the project can be managed with many already existing business tools and methodologies.

The Cynen Framework - Harvard Business Review November 2007 An important observation that should be made is that this tool is a business decision making framework, and should not be confused with the scientic concepts of chaos and complexity. Business strategists will often use the vocabulary of chaos and complexity theory, such as Snowdon and Booth, but this belies their lack of understanding of chaos and complexity theory at a much deeper level. Their framework places the complex and chaos domains in the unordered realm. But non-linear mathematical models of chaotic and complex systems show us that these systems do demonstrate a hidden order, albeit an order that while is fully determined, is not predictable. This new mathematics reveals that order can indeed arise out of chaos but in real life, we are not dealing with situations that are able to be modelled using the same mathematics, and indeed, we would not want to. Given these caveats, the framework does allow us to address the nature of the various problems and scenarios to be addressed when attempting to mentor key stakeholders involved in the world cup and olympic games. What situations are complicated, which are complex, and which are chaotic? Once the key stakeholders have identied their key scenarios, deeper analysis and solutions can then be proposed. Emergence The concept of emergence is widely used in business and innovation, but it is often not fully understood. In scientic terms, it refers to the properties of non-linear equations, which model dynamic systems. These systems can often be modelled using surprisingly simple equations. However, the full behaviour of the system can not be understood by an analysis of the equations alone. And neither can the system be fully predicted even though the equations fully determine the behaviour. There is of course a huge difference between say the chemical oscillations observed in BelousovZhabotinsky chemical reactions, and in the behaviours of a complex project with many stakeholders all with competing ideas, motivations and understandings.

Where the concept of emergence has been used successfully in business and innovation is in the emergence of creative solutions. There are many different methodologies in use today, and others being developed which focus not on variables and quantiable factors, but on the emergence of meaning. What this means is that these methodologies focus on the need to develop a shared meaning, and also shared values in a project. Once this has been achieved, then new successful solutions can emerge from the complex interactions from the parties in involved. Understanding the System as a Whole In understanding the issues of these problems, a number of activities need to be undertaken: Identify key stakeholders Ask the right questions Identify the issues Understanding the dynamics

These questions need to be asked by people with the appropriate background in both large-scale corporate projects, as well as in complexity management and complex modelling. Also, it is assumed that a background in sustainability is also required, since the world cup is being billed as the most sustainable world cup to be held. Once the questions are asked, the scenarios need to be modelled holistically, a way in which perhaps large-scale projects in Brazil have never been modelled before. Of course the vision and creation of Brasilia shows what can be achieved, but it could be argued that with so much more technology, global communications and a far greater number of stakeholders has resulted in a degree of complexity never experienced before. A linear way of working will not be enough for a project of such a large scale. Also, timescales are short, especially if more pressing issues are to be addressed, and here different ways of working may be required in the short term if the projects are to succeed. Summary This has been a very short discussion paper which has only taken a supercial look at how complex thinking can be applied in Brazil to the world cup and olympic games. In reality, there will be many problems and issues that need to be addressed, and at the time of writing, these specic issues have not been identied by the author. Rather, this paper has sought to highlight how new ways of thinking and working could potentially be applied to some of the most important national projects in Brazils history. Brazil is in a state of transition, and it is still possible that Brazil can take a lead in new ways of thinking, rather than making the same mistakes of other countries in the past. References Snowdon, D and Boone, M.E. (2007) A Leaders Framework for Decision Making Harvard Business Review