Hypothesis Testing Class Assessment 2011 (Solutions) 1. (i) Let X be the r.v.

denoting the concentration of calcium (in mg) per 100g of powder and be the mean mass of X. H0 : = 620 H1 : 620 Since variance is known and sample size is small, Under H0, test statistic: Z = [M1]

X 0 ~ N(0,1) / n

[M1]

Using a two-tailed test at 5% significance level, reject H0 if p-value < 0.05. Using GC ( 0 = 620, = 10, x = 628, n = 15 ), p-value = 0.00195 [M1]

Since p-value = 0.00195 < 0.05, we reject H0 and conclude that there is sufficient evidence, at the 5% level of significance, that the mean concentration of calcium is not 620mg per 100g of powder. [A1] Assumption: Assume that the concentration of calcium is normally distributed. [A1]

(ii) No, as n = 55 is large, by Central Limit Theorem, X follows a normal distribution approximately. [A1]

2. (i) Let X be the r.v. denoting mass of each loaf (in g) and be the mean mass of X. Unbiased estimate of population mean = 400 +

7200 = 490 80
[A1]

Unbiased estimate of population variance = (ii) H0 : = 500 H1 : < 500

1 72002 780799 = 1681 79 80

[M1]

Since variance is unknown and sample size is large, test statistic: Z =

X 0 ~ N(0,1) s/ n

Using a one-tailed test at % significance level, reject H0 if p-value < Using GC ( x = 490, s 2 = 1681, n = 80, 0 = 500 ), p-value = 0.0146. There is significant evidence to reject H0 p <

100

. [M1] [A1]

100

> 1.46

(iii) Significance level is the probability of rejecting H0 when H0 is in fact true. In this case, it is the probability of concluding that the average mass of the loaves is less than 500 (i.e. the bakery is overstating the average mass of the loaves), when in fact the average mass of the loaves is 500g. [A1]

3. Let X be the r.v. denoting Claras blood glucose level readings and be the mean mass of X.

x=

135.6 = 6.78 20

s2 =

1 135.62 1057.9 = 7.291157895 19 20

[M1][M1]

H0 : = 0 H1 : 0 Since variance is unknown and sample size is small, test statistic: T =

X 0 ~ t(n-1) s/ n

[M1]

Using a two-tailed test at 5% significance level, reject H0 if p-value < 0.05. To accept H1 (i.e. reject H0), tcalc < -2.093 or tcalc > 2.093

x 0 < 2.093 s/ n s 0 > x + 2.093 n 0 > 8.04

OR

x 0 > 2.093 s/ n s 0 < x 2.093 n 0 < 5.52

[M1]

[A1]

4. Let X be the r.v. mass of marmalade in a jar and be the mean mass of marmalade in a jar. H0 : = 455 H1 : 455 [M1] Since variance is unknown and sample size is small, test statistic: T =

X 0 ~ t(n-1) s/ n

[M1]

Using a two-tailed test at 5% significance level, reject H0 if p-value < 0.05.

Using GC ( x = 454.58, s 2 = 0.56920997 2 = 0.324, n = 10, 0 = 455 ), p-value=0.0445 [M1]

Since p-value = 0.0445 < 0.05. We reject H0. There is sufficient evidence at 5% significance level to say that there is a change in the mean of the distribution. [A1]

If the variance is unaltered, pop variance is known (0.82) we should use the Z-test instead of the t-test., test statistic: Z =

X 0 ~ N(0,1) / n

[A1]

5. (i) x =

63910.4 = 998.6 64

s2 =

1 63910.42 63824061 = 49.77079 63 64

[A1][A1]

(ii) Let X be the r.v. denoting the life span of a particular type of light bulb and be the mean mass of X. H0 : = 1000 H1 : < 1000 Since variance is unknown and sample size is large, test statistic: Z =

X 0 ~ N(0,1) s/ n

[M1]

Using a one-tailed test at % significance level, reject H0 if p-value <

100

. [M1] [A1]

Using GC ( x = 998.6, s 2 = 49.77079, n = 64, 0 = 1000 ), p-value =0.056193. There is sufficient evidence to reject H0 p < (iii) H0 : = 0 H1 : > 0 For H0 not to be rejected, zcalc < 1.64485

100

> 5.62

[M1] [M1]

x 0 < 1.64485 s/ n s 0 > x 1.64485 n 0 > 997.15

[A1]