2011.29.

11 OIL & GAS

Research Department

November oil and gas production preview: oil output to stay at record highs, good gas production expected
Russian daily oil output, 000 bpd
Rosneft Lukoil TNK-BP Surgutneftegas Gazprom neft Tatneft Slavneft Bashneft Gazprom Russneft Total Russia Refining Nov 11 Oct 11 Nov 10 2,310 2,314 2,277 1,689 1,695 1,778 1,477 1,482 1,444 1,222 1,225 1,213 611 612 602 527 527 525 364 364 366 306 306 291 305 303 279 281 285 269 10,331 10,330 10,248 5,088 4,994 4,951 MoM YoY -0.2% 1.5% -0.4% -5.0% -0.4% 2.3% -0.2% 0.7% -0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% -0.6% -0.1% 5.0% 0.9% 9.4% -1.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.8% 1.9% 2.8%

On Friday, December 2, 2011, we expect the Russian Ministry of Energy to report the preliminary data on Russian oil and gas production for November 2011. Based on the ministrys preliminary daily data, we expect the average daily oil output in November to have stayed flat MoM at the record level reached in October, but still up 0.8% YoY. The average daily gas output is expected to have continued seasonal rebound, increasing by 10.5% MoM, and up 0.7% YoY. Oil production: compensate majors decrease production, small companies

Source: Ministry of Energy, Gazprombank estimates

We expect the average daily oil output of Russian companies to have stayed at record level of 10.33 mbpd in November, flat MoM. We do not expect this increase to have been driven by Russian oil majors as all five Russias largest oil producers have likely decreased the average daily oil output by 0.2-0.4% MoM in November. We will likely see an increase of oil production from small oil companies on the back of new lower crude export duty implementation since October 1, 2011. Only Gazprom should have increased its liquids production (by estimated 0.9% MoM), probably driven by gas condensate production increase. Lukoil, which has been the worst upstream performer in Russia this year, may have resumed the daily output decrease, by 0.4% MoM to 1.69 mbpd.

Russian daily gas output, mcmpd

Gazprom NOVATEK Other oil cos Other gas cos Total Russia Nov 11 Oct 11 1,512 1,336 154 154 185 181 126 118 1,977 1,789 Nov 10 MoM YoY 1,546 13.2% -2.2% 123 0.0% 25.5% 166 2.1% 11.8% 129 6.8% -2.5% 1,964 10.5% 0.7%

Gas output: first increase since August; we anticipate export growth resumption The monthly dynamics has likely continued the seasonal rebound with the peak expected in December and January. We anticipate the total Russian average daily gas production to have increased by 10.5% MoM. Moreover, it is likely to have staged the first YoY increase since August - by 0.7%. We expect Gazprom production to have substantially recovered in YoY terms, being only 2.2% lower vs. November 2010, as compared to a 9.9% YoY decline in October 2011. Besides that, in the last week of November we saw a YoY increase of Gazproms gas production. We expect strong export numbers to be reported in November as well. Overall, according to our estimates, Gazprom gas production have grown by less than 1% in 11M11, indicating that production volumes for the entire 2011, will unlikely demonstrate a substantial YoY change. NOVATEK should have produced the same amount of gas in the monthly comparison, and should have decreased its YoY growth rate to 25.5% due to the high base effect. In November 2010, the company staged a sharp increase in production volumes on the back of capacity expansion on Yurkharovskoye field. Oil refining: expected daily volumes up 1.9% MoM, and 2.8% YoY We expect the average refining volumes to have increased in November for the second month in a row, by 1.9% MoM and 2.8% YoY to 5.1 mbpd. We note that the new taxation system of crude oil and oil product exports, effective since October 1, has not depressed the refining volumes. Moreover, we could see further increase of refining volumes in December due to the beginning of winter season. We also expect that TANECO refinery of Tatneft may start commercial operations, which may push refining volumes further up.

Source: Ministry of Energy, Gazprombank estimates

Gazprom, NOVATEK daily gas output, 2010-2011, mcmpd

1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 May Gazprom 2010 (lhs) NOVATEK 2010 Gazprom 2011 (lhs) NOVATEK 2011 Nov Mar Sep Jan Jul 200 180 160 140 120 100 80

Source: Ministry of Energy, Gazprombank estimates

Alexander Nazarov +7 (495) 980 43 81 Alexander.Nazarov@Gazprombank.ru

Ivan Khromushin +7 (495) 980 43 89 Ivan.Khromushin@Gazprombank.ru

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