University of New Orleans

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University of New Orleans Theses and
Dissertations
Dissertations and Theses
8-4-2011
A Study on Remaining Useful Life Prediction for
Prognostic Applications
Gang Liu
University of New Orleans, gliu@uno.edu
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Recommended Citation
Liu, Gang, "A Study on Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Prognostic Applications" (2011). University of New Orleans Theses and
Dissertations. Paper 456.
http://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/456

AStudyonRemainingUsefulLifePredictionforPrognosticApplications

AThesis

SubmittedtotheGraduateFacultyofthe
UniversityofNewOrleans
inpartialfulfillmentofthe
requirementsforthedegreeof

MasterofScience
In
Engineering
ElectricalEngineering

by

GangLiu

M.S.DonghuaUniversity,2004
M.S.UniversityofNewOrleans,2011

August,2011
ii

Copyright2011,GangLiu
iii

Acknowledgement

First,Iwouldliketothankmythesisadvisor,Dr.HuiminChen,forhispatienceand
mentoring.Hedevotedhimselffullyintoacademicteachingandresearch.Heismorethan
willingtohelpmeoutevenathisbusiestperiod.NomatterhowlateIsendmywritingtohim,
healwaysrepliesinaverypromptmanner.Hecultivatedmytechnicalwritingskillsandledme
throughtheacademicresearchworld.Hehiredmeasresearchassistantandintroducedmeto
theresearchcommunity,suchasPrognosticCenterofExcellenceatNASAAmesResearch
CenterandPHMsociety.Thankyouforsteeringmeintherightdirectionandthankyoufor
yourhelpinpasttwoyears.
Thankyou,Dr.X.RongLi,Dr.VesselinPJilkov,forservingthethesiscommittee,
teachingmestatisticscourses,hostingtheISLseminarandgraduateseminar.Youguidedme
therightwayandbestwayofgeneralresearchandprovidedmevaluablecommentstomy
works.
Iwanttoexpressmylovetomywife,XiaolanZhou,whodidmorethanhershare
aroundthehouseasIsatatthecomputer.Withouthersupportandgentlepushing,Iwouldstill
behangingaroundmyhometown.Ialsowanttothankmyparents.Withouttheirpatience,
understanding,support,thecompletionofthisworkwouldnothavebeenpossible.
IwanttoexpressmythanktoDr.KaiGoebel,Dr.SahaBhaskar,Dr.SaxenaAbhinavand
otherresearchersatPrognosticCenterofExcellenceinNASAAmesResearchCenter.Duringthe
sitevisit,theygavemeatouroftheirtestplatformsandsharedtheirthoughtsintheprognostic
field.Dr.KaireviewedmyPHMdatachallengecompetitionalgorithmandprovidedvaluable
suggestions.
Iamgratefultothefundingagencies:LouisianaBoardofRegents(LINKSwithIndustry,
ResearchCenters,andNationalLabsLINK)andNASA(EPSCoRDART2).Ialsowanttothank
theGraduateSchoolofUniversityofNewOrleans,andtheOfficeofResearchandSponsored
ProgramsforprovidingthesupplementalfundthroughthemastersThesisImprovementGrant
(TIG),whichsupportedthedevelopmentofUNObatterytestplatform.
iv

TableofContents
ListofFigures..................................................................................................................................vi
Abstract..........................................................................................................................................vii
1 Introduction.............................................................................................................................1
1.1 Motivation........................................................................................................................1
1.2 PrognosticsandHealthManagement..............................................................................2
1.2.1 DataDrivenPrognostics...........................................................................................3
1.2.2 Modelbasedprognostics.........................................................................................3
1.2.3 Hybridapproaches....................................................................................................3
1.3 ApplicationFields.............................................................................................................3
1.3.1 LithiumionBatteries................................................................................................4
1.3.2 MillingMachineCutters............................................................................................5
1.4 PreviousResearches.........................................................................................................5
1.4.1 EarlyBatteryResearches..........................................................................................5
1.4.2 NASAAmesResearchCenter...................................................................................6
1.4.3 ResearchesforMillingMachineCutterPrediction...................................................6
1.5 Prognosticsapplicationenvironmentandsetup.............................................................6
1.5.1 NASAAmesResearchCenterBatteryTestbed.........................................................6
1.5.2 2010PHMDataChallengeCompetition...................................................................7
2 ProblemDefinition..................................................................................................................7
2.1 GeneralPrognosticProblemFormulation.......................................................................7
2.2 LithiumIonBatteryModel...............................................................................................8
2.3 LithiumIonBatteryKeyParameters................................................................................8
2.3.1 OpenCircuitVoltage(OCV).......................................................................................8
2.3.2 ChargeandDischargeCapacity.................................................................................8
2.4 MillingMachineCutterKeyParameters..........................................................................9
3 ApplyLinearRegressiontoPrognostic....................................................................................9
3.1 UseEstimatedRemainingCapacityastheRegressor......................................................9
3.2 RegressiontoEstimateEndofChargeTime.................................................................10
v

3.3 RegressionResultonNASAbatterydata.......................................................................11
4 UNOBatteryTestPlatform....................................................................................................13
4.1 Motivationofbuildingthetestplatform.......................................................................13
4.2 Testcapabilities..............................................................................................................13
4.3 TestSetup.......................................................................................................................14
4.3.1 VoltageControlCurrentServo................................................................................14
4.3.2 ConstantCurrentandConstantVoltageChargerCircuit........................................15
4.3.3 ImpedanceMeasurementDuringDischargeCycle................................................15
4.4 TestProcedures..............................................................................................................16
5 ConclusionsandFutureWork...............................................................................................16
5.1 Conclusions.....................................................................................................................16
5.2 FutureWork...................................................................................................................17
Appendices....................................................................................................................................20
A1. NASATestBedCircuit....................................................................................................20
A2. TestBatterySpecification..............................................................................................20
VITA...............................................................................................................................................22
vi

ListofFigures

Figure1BatteryEnergyDensityComparison..............................................................................4
Figure2CuttingToolCoordinates................................................................................................7
Figure3SimplifiedBatteryModel................................................................................................8
Figure4BatteryDischargePlot..................................................................................................10
Figure5PredictiononSyntheticData........................................................................................11
Figure6BatteryB0005PredictionResult...................................................................................11
Figure7RULerrorat2000sectoend........................................................................................12
Figure8RULerrorat500sectoend..........................................................................................12
Figure9RULerrorat100secondstoend..................................................................................13
Figure10UNOBatteryTestPlatform.........................................................................................14
Figure11VoltageControlCurrentServo....................................................................................15
Figure12ConstantCurrentandConstantVoltageChargerCircuit...........................................15
Figure13NASAAmesPCoEBatteryTestbed.............................................................................20
vii

Abstract

Weconsiderthepredictionalgorithmandperformanceevaluationforprognosticsand
healthmanagement(PHM)problems,especiallythepredictionofremainingusefullife(RUL)for
themillingmachinecutterandlithiumionbattery.Wemodeledbatteryasavoltagesourceand
internalresisters.Byanalyzingvoltagechangetrendduringdischarge,wemadetheprediction
ofbatteryremaindischargetimeinonedischargecycle.Byanalyzinginternalresistancechange
trendduringmultiplecycles,wewereabletopredictthebatteryremainingusefultimeduring
itslifetime.WeshowedthatthebatteryrestprofileiscorrelatedwiththeRUL.Numerical
resultsusingtherealisticbatteryagingdatafromNASAprognosticsdatarepositoryyielded
satisfactoryperformanceforbatteryprognosisasmeasuredbycertainperformancemetrics.
Webuiltabatterytestplatformandsimulatedmoreusagepatternandverifiedtheprediction
algorithm.Prognosticperformancemetricswereusedtocomparedifferentalgorithms.

PrognosticsandHealthManagement,RemainingUsefulLife,LithiumionBattery,Linear
Regression
1

1 Introduction
Westudyprognosticandhealthmanagementproblemsrelatedtoremainingusefullife
predictionofmissioncriticalcomponentssuchasalithiumionbatterystateofchargeandstate
oflifeandmillingmachinecutterusablecycles.Weimplementedlinearregressionmethods
andevaluatedthepredictionperformance.Abatterytestplatformissetuptoenablefurther
prognosticstudies.Wethinkneitherpurelydatadrivennorpurelymodelbasedapproaches
wouldworkwellinreality.Atmostcaseswhennogroundtruthisavailableandlackofrunto
failuredata,withthemodelknowledgeandselectivelyprocesscollecteddata,thehybrid
approachworksbest,asfarasthepredictionaccuracyandspeedareconcerned.
Chapter1introducesthemotivationofthework,thebackgroundofprognosticresearch
statusandtypicalapproaches,brieflithiumionbatteryandmillingmachinecutterknowledge,
previousresearchesandcommercialvalueoftheprognosticproblems.
Chapter2formulatesgeneralprognosticproblemanddefinethekeyapplication
parameters.Lithiumionbatteryexternalandinternalkeyindicesaredescribedandmilling
machinecutterfeaturesarelisted.
InChapter3,wemodeledlithiumionbatteryopencircuitvoltage(OCV)andevaluated
themodelfittingresidues.Batterystateofcharge(SOC)andstateofhealth(SOH)estimation
andpredictionaregiven.Linearregressionisusedtomakepredictionwithconfidenceinterval.
Chapter4describesthenewbatterytestplatforminUniversityofNewOrleans.Ithas
theglobaldiagramandkeycircuitdesigns.
Conclusionsandfutureworkarepresentedinchapter5.Itincludesthefindingsof
batterymodelandapplicationlessonlearnregardinglinearregressionmethod.Thenewtest
platformcanbefurtherdevelopedandasateachingresourceforUniversityofNewOrleans.
1.1 Motivation
Myresearchinterestforprognosticsstartsfromthedailyuseofbattery.Inmanybattery
applications,howtodetectgoodbatteriesfrombadonesisalwaysahottopic.Forexample
someAAbatteriesonaWalkmancanlastfortensofhoursbutsomearelessthanhalfhour.
Somebatteriesaregoodforremotecontrollerbutnotforflashlight.ToevaluateAAbattery
remainingenergy,someusesopencircuitvoltagewhilesomeusesshortcircuitcurrent.People
haveexperiencesthatlaptopmeterworksbetterfornewbatteries.Whenbatterygettingold,
orwhenusinglaptopinoutdoorcoldtemperature,laptopmaydielongbeforethepredicted
time.AlltheseexperiencesdroveourcuriosityhigherandhigherandsoIchoosetoresearchon
statisticalfaultprognostics.
2

Prognosticisveryimportanttoindustrialusagenowadays.Growingdemandfor
improvingthereliabilityandsurvivabilityofsafetycriticalaerospacesystemshasledtothe
developmentofPHM.Insteadofpassivelyreacttofaultsymptomswithlimitedfaulttolerant
capability,aPHMsystemshouldpredictfailuresactivelyandreconfigurecontrolactionssothat
stabilityandacceptableperformanceoftheentiresystemcanbemaintained.Theemergence
andsuccessfulapplicationsofPHMtechnologyoverthelastdecade,especiallythe
developmentofonlineprognosistechniques,gaverisetoproactivefaulttolerancecontrol
system,whichisplayingmoreandmoreimportantroleindeepspaceexploringandmilitary
weapons.Asalltechnologydevelopmentwouldeventuallyservepublicinciviliandevices,so
theprognosticresearchhasgreatcommercialvalueaswell.
InInformationandSystemLab(ISL),ElectricalEngineeringdepartmentofUniversityof
NewOrleans,weusestatisticalinferencemethodsontargettrackingandsignalestimation.
Statisticalfaultprognosticisnaturallybecomeourinterest.In2009,LouisianaBoardofRegents
setuptheNASAEPSCoRDART2funding,forLouisianauniversitiestoapproachindustrial
groups.In2010programLINKlinksUNOwithindustry,researchcenters,andnationallabs.
Alsothisfieldisdifferentfromtraditionalreliabilityfieldanditisunderdeveloping.The
mathematicalfoundationisnotyetsolid.Henceitwasagreatopportunitywegotintothe
prognosticresearchfield.
ThePHMsocietyorganizesadatachallengesessionannually,whichprovidesanarenafor
allprognosticalgorithmstocompeteinrealapplications.Inyear2010thedatachallenge
focusedonRULestimationforcuttersfromahighspeedComputerNumericalControl(CNC)
millingmachineusingdynamometer,accelerometer,andacousticemissiondata.Both
professionalandstudentparticipantsneededtosubmitestimatedmaximumsafecutcyclesfor
givenwear.IjoinedthedatachallengecompetitionandIwon1
st
prizeinstudentcategory.It
gavemegreatconfidencethatinUniversityofNewOrleanscandoverywellintheprognostic
researchfield.
1.2 PrognosticsandHealthManagement
ThereisnoagreeddefinitionofPHMyet.OnWikipedia,thedefinitionisPrognosticsis
anengineeringdisciplinefocusedonpredictingthetimeatwhichacomponentwillnolonger
performaparticularfunction.Thepredictedtimeisdefinedastheremainingusefullife(RUL).
Thescienceofprognosticsisbasedontheanalysisoffailuremodes,detectionofearlysignsof
wearandaging,andfaultconditions.Thedisciplinethatlinksstudiesoffailuremechanismsto
systemlifecyclemanagementisoftenreferredtoasprognosticsandhealthmanagement
(PHM).Technicalapproachestobuildingmodelsinprognosticscanbecategorizedintodata
drivenapproaches,modelbasedapproaches,andhybridapproaches.
3

1.2.1 DataDrivenPrognostics
Datadriventechniquesutilizemonitoredoperationaldatarelatedtosystemhealth.
Datadrivenapproachesareappropriatewhentheunderstandingoffirstprinciplesofsystem
operationisnotcomprehensiveorwhenthesystemissufficientlycomplexthatdevelopingan
accuratemodelisprohibitivelyexpensive.Themethodmodelscumulativedamageandthen
extrapolatingouttoadamagethreshold.
However,aprincipalbottleneckisthedifficultyinobtainingruntofailuredata,in
particularfornewsystems,expensivesystemsandhumaninvolvedsystems,sincerunning
systemstofailurecanbealengthy,rathercostlyanddangerprocess.Thesedatasourcesmay
includetemperature,pressure,oildebris,currents,voltages,power,vibrationandacoustic
signal,spectrometricdataaswellascalibrationandcalorimetricdata.Featuresmustbe
extractedhighdimensionaldata.
1.2.2 Modelbasedprognostics
Modelingphysicscanbeaccomplishedatmicroandmacrolevels.Atthemicrolevel,
physicalmodelsareembodiedbyseriesofdynamicequationsthatdefinerelationships,ata
giventimeorloadcycle,betweendamageofasystem/componentandenvironmentaland
operationalconditionsunderwhichthesystem/componentareoperated.Themicrolevel
modelsareoftenreferredasdamagepropagationmodel.Macrolevelmodelsarethe
mathematicalmodelatsystemlevel,whichdefinestherelationshipamongsysteminput
variables,systemstatevariables,andsystemmeasuresvariables/outputswherethemodelis
oftenasomewhatsimplifiedrepresentationofthesystem.Theresultingsimplificationsneedto
beaccountedforbytheuncertaintymanagement.
1.2.3 Hybridapproaches
Hybridapproachesattempttoleveragethestrengthfrombothdatadrivenapproaches
aswellasmodelbasedapproaches.Agoodexamplefortheformerwouldbewheremodel
parametersaretunedusingfielddata.Abadexampleforthelatteriswhenthesetpoint,bias,
ornormalizationfactorforadatadrivenapproachisgivenbymodels.
1.3 ApplicationFields
Inthisresearch,weimplementedourprognosticalgorithmsonlithiumionbatteriesand
millingmachinecutters.TheLithiumionbatterywaschosenbecauseitissopopulararoundthe
world.Wheneveruselaptopcomputeronbattery,peopleunderstandthebatteryremaining
usefullifeterms.Alsothetestsetupisrelativelyeasyandaccurate.Runtofailuredatais
4

inexpensive.Inordertodescribeourresearchapplications,itisnecessarytointroducethebasis
ofthesetwofields.
1.3.1 LithiumionBatteries
In1912,G.N.Lewisbeganpioneeringworkonthelithiumbattery.Thenon
rechargeableversioniscommerciallyavailableattheearly1970s.Howeverthelithium
batterieshavefacedabigsetbackduetoissuesinvolvingsafety.Becauseoftheinstabilityof
lithiummetalduringcharging,researcheffortsshiftedtoanonmetalliclithiumbatteryusing
lithiumions.Attemptstodeveloprechargeablelithiumbatteriesfollowedinthe1980sbutthe
endeavorfailedbecauseofinstabilitiesinthemetalliclithiumusedasanodematerial.In1991,
theSonyCorporationcommercializedthefirstlithiumionbattery.
Theinstabilityoflithiummetalshiftedresearchtoanonmetallicsolutionusinglithium
ions.Althoughlowerinspecificenergythanlithiummetal,Lithiumionissafe.Batterypackers
usuallyputaprotectionchipinsidebatterycelltokeepvoltageandcurrentstosecurelevels.
AfterSonycommercializedthefirstLiionbattery,thischemistryhasbecomethemost
promisingandfastestgrowingonthemarket.

Figure1BatteryEnergyDensityComparison
ThespecificenergyofLiionistwicethatofNiCdandthehighnominalcellvoltageof
3.6Vascomparedto1.2Vfornickelsystemscontributestothisgain.Improvementsinthe
activematerialsoftheelectrodehavethepotentialoffurtherincreasesinenergydensity.The
loadcharacteristicsaregood,andtheflatdischargecurveofferseffectiveutilizationofthe
5

storedenergyinadesirablevoltagespectrumof3.70to2.80V/cell.Nickelbasedbatteriesalso
haveaflatdischargecurvethatrangesfrom1.25to1.0V/cell.
In1994,thecosttomanufactureLiioninthe18650cylindricalcellwithacapacityof
1100mAhwasmorethan$10.In2001,thepricedroppedto$2andthecapacityroseto1900
mAh.Today,highenergydense18650cellsdeliverover3000mAhandthecostshavedropped
further.Costreduction,increaseinspecificenergyandtheabsenceoftoxicmaterialpavedthe
roadtomakeLiiontheuniversallyacceptedbatteryforportableapplication,firstinthe
consumerindustryandnowincreasinglyalsoinheavyindustry,includinghybridelectric
vehicles.
In2009,roughly38percentofallbatteriesbyrevenuewereLiion.Liionisalow
maintenancebattery,anadvantagethatmanyothertypebatteriescannotclaim.Thebattery
hasnomemoryanddoesnotneedexercisingtokeepinshape.Selfdischargeislessthanhalf
thatofnickelbasedsystems.ThismakesLiionwellsuitedforfuelgaugeapplications.The
nominalcellvoltageof3.60Vcandirectlypowercellphonesanddigitalcameras,offering
simplificationsandcostreductionsovermulticelldesigns.Thedrawbacksaretheneedfor
protectioncircuitstopreventabuse,aswellashighprice.
AgingisaconcernformostLithiumIonbatteries.Somecapacitydeteriorationis
noticeableafteroneyear.Thebatterymayfrequentlyfailovertwoperhapsthreeyears.The
lossofchargeacceptanceoftheLithiumIonbatteriesisduetocelloxidation,whichis
permanent.Theestimationofhowmuchchargeacceptancecapacityandthepredictionofhow
longabatterycanbeusedareinterestingresearchtopicsandmanyresearchersareworkingon.
Thepredictionofthiscapacityiscrucialinsomemissioncriticalapplications,suchasouter
spacevehicles,unmannedaerialvehicles(UAV)andportablemilitarydevices
1.3.2 MillingMachineCutters
Areliableandintelligentmonitoringsystemisveryimportantforcuttingprocess.A
successfulmonitoringsystemcaneffectivelyestimatetoolwearprogress.Inalotof
applications,suchasmillingmachinesthatcutoneworkpiecewithoutchangingthecutterin
themiddleoftheprocess,themonitoringsystemmustpredictthecutterremainingusefullife.
1.4 PreviousResearches
1.4.1 EarlyBatteryResearches
In1990,T.Matsushimaetal.introducedanddemonstratedrechargeableleadacid
batteriesremainingusefultimecalculationinamperehoursmethod[1].In1994animproved
6

stateofchargeindicatorwasproposedbyT.B.Atwateranditwaspatentedin1995[12].K.
KutluaypublishedonlineestimationofLeadAcidbatteryremainingusefullife[3].In[4]and[7],
twonovalbatterymodelwerediscussedforbatteryprognostic.[6]and[11]arerealprognostic
applicationusageinHybirdElectricalVehicleandElectroMechanicalActuators.
1.4.2 NASAAmesResearchCenter
Severalpredictionmethodsareavailable,ofwhichthemostcommonarebasedon
batteryinternalresistance.However,theimpedancemeasurementaloneprovidesonlyarough
sketchofthebatterysperformance.Forexample,afullychargedbatterythathasjustbeen
removedfromthechargershowsahigherimpedancereadingthanonethathasrestedfora
fewhoursaftercharge.
1.4.3 ResearchesforMillingMachineCutterPrediction
Variousmethodshavebeenstudiedintheareaoftoolwearestimation.XiangLietal.[2]
presentedthemethodofwaveletpackettransformforonlinewearingpredictionofahigh
speedmillingcutter.Highspeedcutterwearingmechanismsinphysicsmodelswereaddressed.
However,noneofabovepaperpredictedremainingusefullifewithrespecttotheasymmetric
penaltyfunctionasinthe2010PHMdatachallenge.Thispaperdescribesouralgorithminfull
andpaysspecialattentiontotheconnectionbetweenprognosticanddiagnosticproblems.
1.5 Prognosticsapplicationenvironmentandsetup
1.5.1 NASAAmesResearchCenterBatteryTestbed
NASAPCoEpublishedadatasetof34batteriesasofthisthesisiswritten.Allbatteries
werechargedinaconstantcurrent(CC)modeuntilthebatteryvoltagereached4.2Vandthen
continuedinaconstantvoltage(CV)modeuntilthechargecurrentdroppedto20mA.
Impedancemeasurementwascarriedoutthroughanelectrochemicalimpedancespectroscopy
(EIS)frequencysweepfrom0.1Hzto5kHz.Thedatawascollectedduringtheperiodofspring
2009tospring2011.
Thesebatterieswererunthrough3differentoperationalprofiles(charge,dischargeand
impedance)atdifferentambienttemperature(4,24and43degreeC).Dischargewascarried
outat1Amp,2Ampor4Ampuntilthebatteryvoltagefelltoacertainvaluerangedfrom2.0V
to2.7V.
TheindividualtestdiagramandbatterytestprofilearedescribedinappendixA1.
7

1.5.2 2010PHMDataChallengeCompetition
The2010PHMDataChallengeCompetitionprovidedmillingmachinedata.Thetestbedis
similartotheoneusedinpaper[2].Cuttersare6mmballnosetungstencarbidecutter.The
endofthesecuttersishemispherical,whichisidealformachineswith3dimensionalcontoured
shapes.Eachcutterwasusedrepeatedlytocutthesameworkpiecelittlebylittle.Thespindle
speedofthecutterwasabout10400rotatesperminute(RPM).Thefeedratewas1555mmper
minute.Ydepthofcutwas0.125mmandZdepthofcutwas0.2mm.Figure2showsthe
coordinatesofX,YandZ.Datawereacquiredat50kHzforallsevenchannels.

Figure2CuttingToolCoordinates
Therearesixindividualcutterrecords,namedc1,c2...c6.Recordsc1,c4andc6are
trainingdata,andrecordsc2,c3,andc5aretestdata.Eachtrainingrecordcontainsone"wear"
filethatlistswearaftereachcutin10
3
mm,and315individualdataacquisitionfiles.Intotal
1890cutfileswereprovidedtoallparticipants.
2 ProblemDefinition
2.1 GeneralPrognosticProblemFormulation
Theprognosticproblemisanoptimizationproblem.Whenasystemisrunning,prognostic
algorithmshouldcollectdatainrealtimeandgivethebestpredictedremainingusefultime,
whichshouldminimizethepossiblecostofunderestimateandoverestimate.
Minimize ( ) ( ) ( )
U U O O
f t P t C P t C = +
(1)
where t ispredictedremainingusefullife; ( ) f t isthetotalestimatedcost. ( )
U
P t isthe
probabilityofunderestimateand ( )
O
P t istheprobabilityofoverestimate.The
U
C and
O
C are
underestimatecostandoverestimatecostrespectively
Differentfromotherestimationproblems,thecostfunctionisusuallyunsymmetrical.
O
C couldbelargerthan
O
C inmanytimes.Takeanexampleforaircraftbatteryremaininguseful
8

lifeestimation.Underestimatewillresultinjustexcessivewastedfuelbutoverestimatecould
resultincrashorpeopleindanger.
2.2 LithiumIonBatteryModel
Wefoundusuallybatterydischargeprofileisprettyconstant.Thereisusuallyafilter
circuitinbetweenbatteryandload.Itflatsthedischargecurrent.HencethebatteryDC
characteristicismoreofaconcern.InFigure3thesimplestmodelisproposed.

Figure3SimplifiedBatteryModel
Abatteryhasanopencircuitvoltage.Itisusuallynotmeasurableexternallybutitcanbe
calculatedwheninternalimpedance
E
R isknown.
2.3 LithiumIonBatteryKeyParameters
2.3.1 OpenCircuitVoltage(OCV)
OCVismeasuredwhennoelectricloadappliedtobattery.OCVindicatesthebattery
remainingusefullife.SometimetheOCVissuperficialandhardtoestimate.Weproposeda
waytodynamicallyonlineestimatetheinternalresistance.Duringdischargephase,we
introduceasmallamount(+/10%)loadripple.Thecorrespondingvoltageandcurrentchanges
canbeusedtocalculatebatteryinternalimpedance.
int
V
R
I
A
=
A
(2)
Knowingtheimpedance,OCVcanbecalculatedas
int OCV Term
U U I R = + (3)
2.3.2 ChargeandDischargeCapacity
ThebatteryrealtimeStateofCharge(SoC)isnotmeasurablebytoolsdirectly.However
SoCdifferencebetweentwotimepointsiscalculablewithcurrentandtimeinformation.
9

1
N
n n
n
C I t
=
= A

(4)
2.4 MillingMachineCutterKeyParameters
Forthecutterwearing,weneedtoestimatethemaximumnumberofcutsonecould
"safely"makeforagivenwearlimit.By"safely",itmeansthatthemaximumwearofanyflute
doesnotexceedthewearlimit.Thepenaltyforoverpredictionissmallerthanthatofunder
prediction.
TheestimationerrorisdefinedasEq.(6)
| | | | | |
Estimated Actual
d n RUL n RUL n =
(5)
where n isawearlimit. | | d n istheestimationerroratwearlimit n .Whenoverestimated,
i.e.theestimatedRULismorethantheactualRUL, | | d n ispositive.Whenunderestimated,
| | d n isnegative.ThepenaltyfunctionsaregivenasymmetricallyasEq.(2).
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
/10
/ 4.5
, 0
, 0
d n
d n
e d n
s n
e d n

<

=

>

(6)
Thetotalscoreiscalculatedbysummingupallpenaltiesandleastscorewins.
| |
165
66 n
S s n
=
=

(7)
Thereisnopresetscorebenchmarkforthiscompetition.Bytestingthecuttingcycle
predictionscoresofcutter2,cutter3andcutter5,thebestalgorithmsareselectedin
professionalteamandstudentteam.
3 ApplyLinearRegressiontoPrognostic
3.1 UseEstimatedRemainingCapacityastheRegressor
Linearregressionallowsustoestimate,andmakeinferencesaboutpopulationslope
coefficients.OuraimistoestimatethecausaleffectonYofaunitchangeinX.Westartfrom
fittingastraightlinetodataontwovariables,YandX.
HerewechoosetimeasX,estimatedcapacityastheregressorY.
10

Figure4BatteryDischargePlot
Figure4showsatypicalbatterydischargecurve.Theblueline(withstarmarkers)
indicatesthevoltagegraduallygoesdown.Theredline(withxmarkers)showsthisisaconstant
currentdischargeat2Amprate.Thegreenline(withcirclemarkers)isthecumulativeused
capacity.
3.2 RegressiontoEstimateEndofChargeTime
Foreverynewdischargecycle,wesetthesampletimeasX.Bycomparingthecurrent
voltagewithlastcyclevoltage,weestimatedcurrentdischargecapacityasregressorY.Thenwe
uselinearregressiontopredictatwhattimetheestimatedcapacityreachesthelimit,whichis
availablefromlastdischargecycle.

11

Figure5PredictiononSyntheticData
Figure5showsthelinearregressionprogress.Itshowsattimet=100,astraightlineisfit
toexisteddata.Byextrapolationitispredictedattimet=150,thekeyparameterreachesa
presetlevel.Forbatteryprediction,wepredictatwhattimethecapacitywillreachlastcycle
value.
3.3 RegressionResultonNASAbatterydata
EachsetofNASAbatterydatahas200+dischargecycles.Figure6showsthebattery
B0005predictionresults.Thexaxisisactualremainingusefultimeinseconds.Theyaxisisthe
predictedremainingusefultime.

Figure6BatteryB0005PredictionResult
WeusehistogramtodemonstratethepredicationresultasinFigure7,Figure8and
Figure9.TheXaxisisthepredictionerror.Lessthanzeroisunderestimatingandabovezerois
overestimating.
12

Figure7RULerrorat2000sectoend

Figure8RULerrorat500sectoend

13

Figure9RULerrorat100secondstoend
4 UNOBatteryTestPlatform
4.1 Motivationofbuildingthetestplatform
Ibelievethefirsthanddataiscriticaltodatadrivenprognosticresearch.Thereareafew
batterytestbedsweresetinotherresearchfacilities.Butalocalbatterytestbedwouldenable
ourresearcherstoimmediatelyverifythealgorithmsandtocultivatemorethoughts.Buildinga
batterytestplatformcostnotmuchbutitwillbethefirstplatformforprognosticpurposein
UniversityofNewOrleans.
Astheprognosticandhealthmanagementsciencebranchbecomestrongerandstronger,
Ibelievemoreresearcherswilljointhisfield.Andmorestudentsmaychooseitastheirresearch
interest.UniversityofNewOrleanshassetuptheResearchExperienceofUndergraduates
problemtorecruitagroupofdiverse,talentedundergraduatestudentsfromaroundthenation,
andtoactivelyengagetherecruitedstudentsintocuttingedgeIntegratedSensingand
AutomatedSceneUnderstanding(ISASU)research.Thisbatterytestplatformwillbeavery
goodtoolforsomeofthemtopracticeprognosticresearches.
4.2 Testcapabilities
Toconductbatterytestandcollectdataforprognosticpurpose,followingobjectiveswereset.
Keepuptofourbatteriesinsideacontrolledtemperatureenvironment
Temperaturecanbesetfrom2degreeCto60degreeC.Hysteresisis1degreeC.
Chargervoltagefrom1.2Vto22.2V,currentlessthan5A,totalpowerlessthan50W.
14

Dischargerworksfrom1.2Vto22.2V,dischargecurrentlessthan10A.Totalpowerless
than100W
16bitDACtokeepvoltageandcurrentsensingresolution0.025%,accuracy1%.
Temperatureaccuracy1degreeC.
MATLABandLabViewInterfaceforcontrolandmonitoring.
4.3 TestSetup
Thetestsetupisasfollowingfigure.AKWC2512Vfridgeisusedasconstanttemperature
chamber.AComputerpowersupplyprovidesallpowertorelaysandchargers.NIUSB6009
DataAcquisitiondevicecollectsvoltage,currentandtemperaturereadingsandcontrolsrelays.

Figure10UNOBatteryTestPlatform
4.3.1 VoltageControlCurrentServo
Tocontrolthebatterychargeanddischargecurrent,avoltagecontrolledcurrentsource
isdesignedasfollowingschematic.ThecontrolvoltageisfromUSB6009analogoutputport.
ThecircuitwillkeepthevoltageonR3equivalenttotheinputvoltage,sothatacontrollable
currentisgoingthroughthetargetdevice.
15

Figure11VoltageControlCurrentServo
4.3.2 ConstantCurrentandConstantVoltageChargerCircuit

Figure12ConstantCurrentandConstantVoltageChargerCircuit
TheCCCVcircuitisdesignedforlithiumionbatterycharging.Whenbatteryvoltageisless
than4.2V,IC2willnotfunctionsothatLM317blockisrunninginconstantcurrentmode.It
keepsvoltageacrossR1+R2into1.25V,whichmakes1.25Achargingcurrent.Whenbattery
reaches4.2VtheIC2willmakeLM317intoconstantvoltagemode.ThevoltageacrossR5and
R4willnotexceed4.2V.
4.3.3 ImpedanceMeasurementDuringDischargeCycle
Every5minutesduringdischargephase,a+10%and10%rippleisappliedtodischarge
currentcontroller.Thecorrespondingvoltagechangesareusedtocalculatebatteryinternal
impedance.
16

4.4 TestProcedures
AMATLABcodeiswrittentocontroltheUSB6009DAQactionsandtocollectallanalog
inputvalues.Detailedalgorithmisomittedinthisthesis.Ingeneraltheprocedureis
Initializeallrelaysandselftest
Enablechargercircuitandcollectvoltage,currentandtemperature
Afterbatteryisfullycharged,restforatleast30minutesandwaittemperaturebackto
constant
Dischargethebattery.Addimpedancetestwaveformsevery5minutes.Collectalldata
andprotectbatteryfromoverdischarging.
Rest30minutesandaftertemperaturebacktoconstant,startanothertestcycle
5 ConclusionsandFutureWork
5.1 Conclusions
Byapplyinglinearregressiontobatteryandmillingmachineprognostics,wefoundthat
whenlastcycledischargecapacityisknown,thepredictionaccuracycanbeveryaccurate.At
1000secondsbeforeendofcharge,theerrorisnomorethan50seconds.Thelinearregression
performanceissatisfactory.
AbatterytestplatformwasdevelopedatISLforprognosticdatacollectionandalgorithm
development.WenoticedthattoestimatebatterySOCisakeytoEndofChargeprediction.
TheexistingbatteryprognosticdatasetsfromNASAdidnotprovidereliablebatteryimpedance
data,anditishardtoidentifyoutliers.Usingourowntestplatform,wecangenerateaccurate
batteryusagedatawithrealtimemeasurementsoftemperatureandinternalimpedance.
Duringtheperiodofprognosticresearch,Ijoinedthe2010PHMDataChallenge
CompetitionandIwonfirstprizeinthestudentcategory.Isubmittedapaperdisclosingthe
winningstrategytoInt.JournalofPrognosticsandHealthManagement(ijPHM).Iappliedfor
ThesisImprovementGrantfromgraduateschoolofUniversityofNewOrleansandtheproposal
wasawarded.
Thisthesisdescribedthelinearregressionapplytolithiumionbatteryandmilling
machinecutterwearingapplications.Followthesamemethodmanyotherprognosticproblems
canbesolvedinsimilarmanner.IhopethisthesiscanbeabridgeforreaderssolvemorePHM
challenges.
17

5.2 FutureWork
Iexpecttoexpandthethesisworkinthefollowingavenuesiftimeallows.
a) Applyweightedlinearregressiontoimprovethepredictionaccuracy.Currentlythe
algorithmsetsallpointsequalweights.Earlytimedatakeepimpactthewholestraight
linefitting.
b) Analyzetherelationshipbetweenbatterytemperatureandinternalimpedancesoas
toestimatebatteryopencircuitvoltagemoreaccurately.Itwillreducethestateof
chargeestimationerrorsothatremainingusefullifecanbemoreaccurate.
c) Forthebatterytestplatform,thelongtimerunningreliabilityneedtobeimproved.
TheUSBbusisstillnotreliableenoughtosustainlongtimetesting.Adedicated
systembus,orembeddedmicrocontrollerwillenablelongtermreliablecycletest.
18

Bibliography
[1]ToshioMatsushima,"PREDICTIONOFREMAININGBATTERYDISCHARGETIMEIN
TELECOMMUNICATIONSSYSTEMS",1990.
[2]XiangLietal.,"FuzzyNeuralNetworkModellingforToolWearEstimation,"inAnnual
ConferenceofthePrognosticsandHealthManagementSociety,2009.
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ChargeEstimationandMonitoringSystemforSealedLeadAcidBatteriesin
TelecommunicationPowerSupplies",vol.52,No.5,2005.
[4]FotisKerasiotis,AggelikiPrayati,ChristosAntonopoulos,ChristosKoulamas,andGeorge
Papadopoulos,"BatteryLifetimePredictionModelforaWSNPlatform",2010.
[5]NormanR.DraperandHarrySmith,AppliedRegressionAnalysis,3rded.WileySeriesIn
ProbabilityAndStatistics,1998.
[6]HaifengDai,XuezheWei,andSunzeChang,"ANewSOHPredictionConceptforthePower
LithiumionBatteryUsedonHEVs",2009.
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CONVERSION,2006,vol.21,No.2.
[8]IsidorBuchmann,BatteriesinaPortableWorld:AHandbookonRechargeableBatteriesfor
NonEngineers,2nded.CadexElectronicsInc,2009.
[9]PatrickJ.VanBree,AndreVeltman,WillH.A.Hendrix,andPaulP.J.VanDenBosch,
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[10]PieroP.BonissoneandKaiF.Goebel,"Whenwillitbreak?AHybridSoftComputingModel
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19

[13]BayramAKDEMIR,SalihGUNES,andIsmailComlekcilerTaha,"MicrocontrollerCompatible
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20

Appendices

A1. NASATestBedCircuit
InNASAPrognosticCenterofExcellencewebsite,thereisnotexplicitschematicofthe
testbed.Inordertobetterunderstandtheironlinedata,thefollowingschematicsare
drewafteronsitevisitanddiscussiontoNASAresearchers.

Figure13NASAAmesPCoEBatteryTestbed
A2. TestBatterySpecification
Weused3.7V2200mAhTenergyLiion18650Cylindricalbatterywithtabsinourtestruns.This
appendixgivesthebatteryspecificationforreference.

Illustration1Tenergy3.7V2200mAHLiion18650Battery
21

Features
- LiIon18650cylindricalrechargeablebatterywithtabs;
- 3.7V2200mAhhighcapacity
- Highenergydensityandlowerweightthanotherrechargeablebatteries
- ManufacturedunderISO90012000toassurequality
- UL#MH48285
- BatterytestedbasedonInternationalElectrotechnicalCommission(IEC)standardto
ensurecapacity,quality,andlifetime
Applications
- BuildingLaptopBattery
- Buildingportablepowerdeviceneedinghighenergydensityandlowweight
ProductSpecifications
- Capacity*Nominal2200mAh,Minimum2150mAh
- Dimensions:
- Diameter18+/0.2mm
- Height65+/0.2mm
- Weight(Typical)Approx.46gyes
- NominalVoltage:Average3.7V
- CutoffVoltage:3.0V
- InternalImpedance:lessorequalto180milliohm(withPTC)
- CyclePerformance:90%ofinitialcapacityat400cycles
- Cyclelife:>500cycles
- Charge:Current=0.5CmAVoltage=4.2VEndCurrent=0.01mA
- Discharge:Current=0.5CmAEndVoltage=3.0V
- Max.Chargingcurrent:1.5Cma
- Max.Dischargingcurrent1.5Cma(forcontinuousdischarge)
22

VITA

TheauthorwasborninNingxiang,Hunan,China.HeobtainedhisCollegediplomain
computersciencefromHunanUniversityin1995andMastersdegreeincomputerscience
fromDonghuaUniversityin2004,respectively.HejoinedUniversityofNewOrleanselectrical
engineeringprogramtopursueaMastersDegree,andbecomeamemberofAssociate
ProfessorHuiminChensresearchgroupin2009.BeforethathewaswithGeneralElectricalasa
teamleaderandprogrammanager.