December 12, 2011

Good morning.
My thoughts on the overnight markets

Commodity Futures Markets

Commodity Market #1 March Corn (CH2 or perhaps CH12. On ThinkorSwim, you would use /ZCH2): The market will be closing for a few hours at the time of this writing. Overnight, we sank a bit lower, near that 585 region. As always, with this market the active open has to be observed, but not participated in. The active opens in the Corn market are much to volatile. I usually wait 5 minutes to 10 minutes. If 585 continues to hold after the open, we congest, and we break higher than 593.25, we may have an opportunity to buy Corn for a brief day trade, much as occurred with Wheat last week. If 585 does not hold firm as a base of support and we consistently trade lower? Then the trade must be delayed. Commodity Futures Market #2 March Wheat (WH2 or perhaps WH12. On ThinkorSwim, you would use /ZWH2): As with Corn, March Wheat fell overnight, and presents a similar opportunity as last week, and as the Corn market currently stands. Since the 583 region of support was not violated, and the market continues to fall, I will be looking for an area of congestion. At the present time, the market is just falling, and as is true with Corn, will be closing for a few hours. So at this point, again being careful with the active open, I'm just waiting for such congestion to form on the 10 minute chart especially. If such congestion forms, then I could look for an opportunity to buy this market on brief day trades. Commodity Market #3 March Cotton (CTH2 or perhaps CTH12. On ThinkorSwim, you would use /CTH2): Cotton continued to fall in the overnight market. Basically, congestion has to form, and it has to form right away in order to buy breaks to the upside. If the Cotton market continues to fall, it will be close to breaking through the level of support that has formed.

Commodity Market #4 March Sugar (SBH2 or perhaps SBH12. On ThinkorSwim, you would use /SBH2): The Sugar market in particular looks ripe for a long trade, and it looks ripe as of the time of this writing. We fell overnight, congested near support, and the tape looks like it's getting ready for a break to the upside. I'll be now watching the tape, and with positive buy pressure, may go long in this market. Commodity Market #5 February Live Cattle (LCG2 or perhaps LCG12. On ThinkorSwim, you would use /LEG2): We clearly broke through the daily support that had formed. I will simply watch this market at the moment to see if a new base of support forms up.

Forex
The seasonal factors have not yet begun to assert themselves over the currencies. And therefore, none of my entrance alerts tripped off as of yet. I'll continue to monitor those markets, and update ones if I completely scratch those trading ideas. I haven't done so yet. Again, for the moment, I'm just watching the markets drift higher ... Until next time, stay safe trade well, and remember that loving other people doesn't cost a dime.
Note: The above statements should not be construed as an investment or trading recommendation. Aileron Market Balance is a newsletter that allows subscribers to look 'over my shoulder' as it were, for my own personal specific trading and investing ideas and thoughts for the next week. But they are only thoughts as of the moment of publication, and are subject to change. Any trades or investments that I discuss within this newsletter are simply my own thoughts regarding my own investing and trading outlook. Remember that entering any market is an individual decision. There is no guarantee that I will enter, or have entered any of the trading or investing ideas that I discuss in this newsletter; as larger accounts may require a different strategy as the ones presented here. This newsletter simply contains my trading and investing thoughts for the next week. I, the author do not grant this work for wide distribution beyond any single individual subscriber as this publication is protected by U.S. And International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. No license is granted to the user except for the user's personal use. No part of this publication or its contents may be copied, downloaded, stored in a retrieval system, further transmitted or otherwise reproduced, stored, disseminated, transferred, or used, in any form or by any means except as permitted under the original subscription agreement or with prior written permission. I personally only enter any market after watching and reading the tape and I trade using money management principles. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle and market, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 15 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Model Portfolio accounts are hypothetical accounts,with all of the inherent problems therein, which are used within this newsletter in an attempt to track the results of this newsletter, and is run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, due diligence, and tolerance for risk. Any pictures used within this newsletter are believed to be public domain. Any charts that are displayed are believed to be public domain, and other pictures were obtained through Wikipedia's public domain policy.