LECTURE 1 Nature can jump up and hit us in the face (ex.

Volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides, floods, extraterrestrial impacts, etc.) Civilization exists by geologic consent, subject to change without notice (Will Durant, historian) Humans can jump up and hit nature in the face Thomas Midgely (major negatibve effect on the earth) Invented leaded gasoline in 1921 Invented Freon, the first of the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in 1930/1931

The world changes as we learn to see it in new ways. And the way we see the world depends on how we use it. View of earth from space led to increased awareness of the fragility of the Earth and the need to better understand it The President of the USA commissioned a study of the Earth System what do we need to know in order to live in concert with this fragile Earth?

LECTURE 2 Five Reservoirs of Earth System: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Atmosphere Hydrosphere (Water and Ice) Solid Earth (Rocks and Soil) Life (Biota) Stars and Planets (tides, the sun, asteroids, etc.) These things interact in complex ways

Earth Systems Engineering = Managing Earth Systems (For the use and convenience of people) Humans move 4 times as much earth as other natural processes In managing Earth systems, there is an ethical dimension You need to define your desired endpoints (i.e. you need to know where you are going) Is the ultimate endpoint sustainability?

Sustainable Development development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs Sustainable Sufficiency living lightly within the soil as if the future mattered The United Nations Development Program the wealth of the worlds 200 wealthiest individuals is equal to the combine annual income of 41% of the human population

LECTURE 3 Hazards, Disasters, and Catastrophes Hazard: Something that may cause harm to people There are both: A) Natural Hazards B) Anthropogenic Both A and B are often intertwined There are landslides on Mars. Is there a hazard from Martian landslides? YES! We have human property on mars. We Need to Distinguish between Hazards and Resources Resource: Something that is useful to us Hazard: Something which may cause harm to people All substances are poison; there is none which is not a poison. Lets imagine a particular geographic location with a fixed human population The right dose differentiates a poison from a remedy. Poison -> Hazard Remedy -> Resource Water as a Resource and as a Hazard The amount of water we have available to us fluctuates. Drought vs. floods When water crosses the damage threshold (boundaries in which amount of water can be characterized as a flood or drought), water is considered a hazard. Else, it is considered a resource. How do you decide what the Damage Threshold is? 1. Partly by empirical observations

2. Partly by scientific studies 3. Partly by personal preferences

Consider pollution - pollution is a hazard. The very notion of pollution is culturally dependent. We define what is or is not pollution Lets imagine a particular geographic location with a fixed human population. Lets imagine that we experience a hazard event (i.e. we go past the damage threshold)

What are the three main factors that control how severe the hazard event is? 1. Absolute amount (intensity) way too much or too little 2. Duration of event too long 3. Rate of Change too fast (not enough time to adjust to the change) Rate of Change e.g. sudden impact of a large meteorite -> can lead to mass extinction e.g. burning, by humans, of oil, coal, and gas, causing an increase in CO2 emissions in the atmosphere -> may lead to enhanced global warming Note: Over time, there may be changes in human sensitivity to the hazard -> some due to variations in physical events -> some due to variations in socio-economic toleration A) Secular change in the hazard B) Increased intensity/variability C) Decreased tolerance (shifts damage threshold lines -> makes them closer together) Note: Also the consequences of synergy Snow + Wind = Blizzard! Each on its own might not be a big problem but together, you might have a disaster

LECTURE 4 After a hazard event, there are both losses and gains. Some people lose and some people gain. When does a hazard event become a Disaster? Catastrophe? What factors distinguish a hazard event from a disaster from a catastrophe? 1. 2. 3. 4. Extent of human loss of life Extent of human injury Extent of monetary loss due to property damage Group versus individual

5. Reconstruction time 6. Societys reaction to the event Why is the distinction important? a) Government/World Aid b) Historical perspective Truism in Disasters The poor lose their lives while the rich lose their money 90% of the deaths are in the less industrialized countries 75% of economic damage is in the more industrialized countries How big a problem is a particular hazard? (i.e. how risky is it to be exposed to that hazard?) For a particular location (e.g. Kingston), what is the risk to humans from that hazard? Risk: the probability of the hazard occurring (PH) x the severity of the consequences if the hazard happens (SH) Risk = PH x SH How do we measure PH and SH? Empirical observations Scientific studies Social/economic impact studies

Should you believe the experts? Wise to add a margin of safety in risk analysis -> concept of Safety Factor (estimates the probability of failure) -> experts have probably already added that margin of safety How much risk are we willing to incur? -> Once you have the data (i.e. the determined values of PH and SH), you make your choice -> It is entirely a matter of personal/societal choice

LECTURE 5 Scenario: The government of Ontario proposes to build a nuclear reactor on the shore of Lake Ontario near Kingston Our Task: Carry out a risk analysis and risk management study, for the government, focused on seismic risk Generic Approach to Risk Analysis and Risk Management: 1. Risk Analysis

a. Understand the Hazard (in general) b. Determine the risk from that hazard for the region of interest (PH x SH) 2. Risk Management a. Determine ways to reduce PH and/or SH i. Example: for an avalanche hazard in a given region, how can we reduce the severity of consequences if the hazard happens to essentially 0? We can move the settlement away from the hazard i.e. stay away from the hazard. b. Conduct a Cost-Benefit analysis i. Determines what you can afford to do 1. Consider the economic, environmental, social, and personal choice -> what risks are we willing to take for what benefits? a. E.g. Case study of chlorinating water in Peru -> USA studies showed that Cl (Chlorine) in water elevates the incidence of bladder cancer -> so, following the USA Environmental Protection Agency approach, many wells in Peru were NOT chlorinated -> in an ensuing cholera epidemic, more than 3500 people were saved from bladder cancer by an early death c. Implement mitigation techniques if warranted (and to the extent that you choose) Where should we spend whose money to undertake what programmes to save which lives with what probability programmes to improve which lives with what probability What is a life worth? Worth of a Life: To whom is the life important? a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. i. Individual person Relatives Company looking at employees Government Society as a whole Young vs. old Educated vs. non-educated Present value vs. future value Rich vs. poor

When you come to a fork in the road, take it -> but worry about risks that can make you freeze up and do nothing What is not possible is not to choose Life is the art of courage and joy in the face of risk

EARTHQUAKES Seismic Risk Analysis and Risk Management for a proposed nuclear reactor near Kingston, Ontario 1. Understanding the hazard a. What causes earthquakes? b. Where do earthquakes occur? c. What energy do they release? d. What exactly causes damage?

LECTURE 6 Elastic Rebound Theory rigid part of Earth can store elastic energy Therefore, earthquakes are associated with faults. Earthquakes happen when either: a) A fault forms b) There is an episode of movement on a pre-existing fault In both cases, stored energy is released. For a big earthquake, fault motion needs to be only a meter or so. Fault Terminology: 1. Strike-Slip Fault -> Horizontal Motion (ex. San Andreas Fault) (Medium Danger) 2. Dip-Slip Fault -> Vertical Motion (generates a fault scarp) a. Normal Dip Slip Down the Ramp (Least Dangerous) b. Reverse Dip Slip -> sub vertical motion Up the Ramp (Most Dangerous) Note: Rivers are often found to occupy faults/fault zones (because the broken up rocks can be more easily washed away) and we often build major dams on such rivers because the rivers make canyons Focus: The point source of energy release on the fault Epicenter: Location at the Earths surface directly above the focus. (Location at which the energy of the surface will tend to be the most and cause the most damage) Seismometers allow us to: a) Detect the energy from a quake b) Measure distance to an earthquake and thus locate it c) Measure the energy released during an earthquake

LECTURE 7

How do we find the Focus of an Earthquake? In other words, how far away is the earthquake? First, we need to know what seismic waves are, and how they behave. Seismic Waves: Seismic energy waves radiate out from the focus of an earthquake as body waves. Some body wave motion gets transformed into surface wave motion when the body waves reach the surface. Surface waves generally cause the most danger at surface. Rayleigh Waves: Circular motion Love Waves: Horizontal, side-to-side motion Let us consider the body waves in more detail: There are two kinds: 1. P-Waves: push-pull (compression-rarefaction) 2. S-Waves: shear What is the velocity of seismic waves? (how fast do they move) and What does the velocity depend on? Vp (velocity of p waves) = sqrt ((k + 4/3mew)/p) Vs (velocity of s waves) = sqrt(mew/p) Where p = density and k and mew are elastic moduli In the formula, k is the compressibility modulus (stress needed to compress the material) and mew is the shear modulus (stress needed to change shape) In words: 1. The more elastic a material is, the higher the seismic velocity. 2. The denser a material is, the lower the seismic velocity. So both P-waves and S-waves velocities change when they move into a different material. 1. P-waves travel faster than s-waves. (p-actually stands for primary, and s-for secondary) First energy received is p-waves, then you receive the first s-waves and then the surface waves come last. This is because the speeds are not the same; p-waves travel fastest. Seismic Velocities for Rocks at Earths Surface P-Waves move at approx. 5.6 km/sec S-Waves move at approx. 3.3 km/sec Ex. For an earthquake in Toronto (approx. 250km away from Kingston), how long will it take until the first p-wave reaches Kingston? It will take approx. 1 minute.

Think about Thunder = S and Lightning = P The longer the time gap between the flash of lightning and the peal of thunder, the farther away the storm is. So, finally: To measure the distance to an earthquake focus, we use travel times: Empirically determined travel time curves. For earthquakes: Since we didnt know seismic velocities at depth, we need to first create an empirical travel time graph. For quakes of known location and time, obtain the P-S arrival time differences from seismometers around the world. To locate quake focus, you need a minimum of 3 seismometer stations.

LECTURE 8 Where do earthquakes occur? At what depth do earthquakes occur? Earthquakes can occur as deep as 700 km. 90% of earthquakes occur at less than 100 km deep. Note: The radius of the Earth is approx. 6370 km Only the outer part of the Earth is rigid enough (i.e. sufficiently Elastic) to experience Brittle Failure (fault formation). Deeper in the Earth, it is too plastic (or liquid?) How do we estimate energy released from an earthquake? 1. Measure the intensity (based on observed damage) e.g. the Mercalli Scale a. Subjective b. Varies with distance from epicenter 2. Measure the Richter Magnitude (a quantitative measure of energy released) a. Determined from the maximum s-wave amplitude on a seismogram (corrected for distance) b. Logarithmic scale c. It is an open-ended scale (we dont know how high it could go) (the largest earthquakes ever recorded are approximately 9 on the Richter scale) d. Quakes less than 2.5 magnitude are not felt by humans e. Each magnitude integer step corresponds to approximately a 30-fold difference in energy release How much more energy is released in a magnitude 7 earthquake than in a magnitude 5 earthquake? 30 x 30 = 900 times more energy

What do the Richter numbers mean in terms of Actual Energy released? How would you figure that out? Compare to known explosions (e.g. nuclear blasts) How frequent are earthquakes? Magnitude < 3 -> over 100000/year > 3 -> over 30000/year > 6 -> 100/year > 7 -> 20/year Very few huge earthquakes Lots and lots of small ones

LECTURE 9 Earthquake Hazards: What exactly causes damage? 1. Surface Faulting a. Structures on the fault will be disrupted by the tearing motion b. So dont build right on the active faults 2. Ground Shaking a. This is generally the greatest threat to buildings and people b. In General: i. The closer you are to the earthquake, the greater the damage ii. The greater the magnitude of the earthquake, the greater the damage c. BUT this is modified by natural and anthropogenic conditions i. Natural: nature of soils/rocks ii. Anthropogenic: nature of the structures that we build d. In a big earthquake, the shaking can be severe even 100s of kilometers away from the epicenter e. The amount of shaking also depends on the nature of the soil/rocks in the area i. Soft Soils (e.g. clay) shake more than stiff soils (e.g. sand) which shake more than rock 3. Ground Failure a. Landslides b. Liquefaction of Soils i. Sand or clay soil that changes strength when shaken ii. Can flow like a liquid 4. Tsunami

Japanese words for harbor wave Colloquial: tidal wave Seismic sea wave generated by earthquake at sea Wavelength up to several 100 km an hour at a velocity of 500 to 800 km/hour. Waves pile up at shore to heights as much as 60 meters or more 5. Fires e.g. 1906 San Francisco fire 6. Disruption of Water Supplies and Disease 7. Human-Induced Seismic Hazards a. Dam Construction i. If the dam is constructed on a fault, it can potentially cause an earthquake ii. Loading of earth by water changes the stress regime 1. Earthquakes can happen iii. Water infiltration below dam can lubricate faults 1. Earthquakes can happen and there can be possible dam failures b. Mining i. Underground blasting can destabilize the rocks 1. Can lead to earthquakes 2. Threat of rock bursts 3. Material Amplification Effect: Seismic Waves: Velocity changes when going from one medium to another. As P and S waves slow, some of their energy is transferred to surface wave motion (i.e. increased shaking) Rock Least shaking Sand Soil intermediate shaking Clay soil most shaking Aftershocks: Smaller earthquakes that occur soon after the main shock, with epicenters in the same area as the main shock. They occur approximately minutes after to up to a year after. Aftershocks can cause collapse of already damaged buildings.

a. b. c. d.

LECTURE 10-13 Tsunami Causes 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Seafloor Earthquakes Underwater landslide Collapse of the flank of a volcano into the sea Submarine volcanic explosion Impact of meteorite into the ocean

Assess Seismic Risk of Area a) Locate and determine nature of faults in the area a. Look on the ground, and from the air (and space) but there can be hidden faults b. Set up seismometers to help locate faults i. Only effective for faults that have moved since seismometers were set up ii. Note: Fault Zones are very complex b) Study the history of earthquakes in the area a. Which faults are active and how often do BIG earthquakes occur in our region of interest b. Set up seismometers to collect historical data i. Gives us an idea of which faults are most active ii. Gives us some idea of the frequency and magnitude of the earthquakes 1. Critical to collect as long a seismic record as possible. Where are the high earthquake prone zones? 2. Determine recurrence interval for Big earthquakes in the area. Big refers to greater than magnitude 6. How do we determine the recurrence interval for big earthquakes? a. Look at human historical records which goes back before seismometers b. Dig trenches and pits on the active faults c. Look for evidence of ancient tsunami and ground elevation/subsidence i. Buries swamps 1. Date the dead organic matter (c-14 method) and this gives us the age of the earthquake 3. Construct probability maps and earthquake based maps to help future planning PART 2 Determine the recurrence interval Does every fault produce earthquakes? NO! Some are inactive which means that it has not moved in the last two million years. Some are potentially active which means it has moved in the last 2 million years. Some are active which means it has moved in the last 10,000 years. Relative Time 1. Law of Superposition a. For sediment layers, oldest layers are on the bottom, youngest on top 2. Law of Cross-Cutting Relationships a. Fault cuts across the layers therefore, the fault is younger than the layers therefore you can determine the relative age of the fault depending on the layers of soil

i. We can date old earthquakes (carbon-14 dating) ii. Peat layers contain dead organic matter. The time since the organic matter died can be determined by the Carbon-14 method. So, the absolute age of the faulting event can be determined Carbon-14 Dating Once dead, the amount of Carbon-14 in the tree decreases at a fixed rate. We measure the ratio of Carbon-14 to Carbon-12. Half-Life: Length of time for half the radioactive element to decay. 1 half-life for carbon 14 is approximately 5730 years. Carbon 14 dating (and other radiometric dating methods) can be used to determine when a fault last moved (if your seismometers havent already told you the answer) But, it is a subjective determination to decide if a particular movement event was a big earthquake or just a small one. We can turn to other evidence of big earthquake activity that is less subjective. We can look for evidence of ancient tsunamis and ground elevations/subsidence Example: Los Angeles, California 9 Major earthquakes in 1400 years, therefore, the recurrence interval is 1400/9 = 160 years. The last big earthquake was in 1857. Therefore, the earthquake is due now. However, note that the events are not evenly spaced.

Assess Seismic Risk of Area a. Locate and determine nature of faults in the area b. Study history of earthquakes in the area c. Determine the geologic and geographic factors in the area a. Map out locations of rock, sand soils, clay soils, etc. i. They have variable shaking characteristics

GEOL 106 MID-TERM Thursday March 3, 2010 7:30 to 9:00 pm

LECTURE 14-16 Assess seismic risk of area: Determine the Geologic/Geographic factors in the area 1. Map out locations of rock, sand soils, clay soils, etc.

a. They have variable shaking characteristics 2. Map out zones of sand and clay that are prone to liquefaction 3. Map out cliffs/hills that are at risk of landslides 4. Map out tsunami risk zones a. Shore lines of oceans and lakes Determine human interactions with the potential hazard in the area 1. What is the distribution of the population in the area a. Particular attention to proximity of people to high-risk zones 2. What is the nature of the human infrastructure a. Where are the buildings and rocks with respect to high-risk zones b. What are the buildings made of, and how are they designed Now, after all of what we talked about, you can then create a full picture of the seismic risk for your area of interest Write reports Try to quantify it Make risk maps

Risk Management 1. 2. 3. 4. Understand the Hazard (Risk Analysis) Determine the risk from that hazard for the region of interest(PH x SH) (Risk Analysis) Determine ways to reduce PH and/or SH Do a cost benefit analysis a. Determine what you can afford to do 5. Implement mitigation techniques if warranted Determine ways to reduce the probability of the hazard happening and the severity of the hazard (PH x SH) To try reducing the severity of the hazard: 1. Apply land-use planning and zoning a. Use high risk areas for low population use b. In particular, dont build in areas of soft soil or soils that might liquefy 2. Apply stringent building codes a. Choose appropriate building materials i. There are good and bad materials ii. Examples of good materials are wood, steel, reinforced concrete (steelreinforced concrete 1. The good materials are all flexible

iii. Examples of bad materials are heavy masonry, stucco, adobe, reinforced concrete 1. The bad materials are all inflexible 3. Choose resistant building design a. For example: The worst damage occurs when the period of vibration of the ground and the building are the same i. Buildings have a natural period of vibration of approximately N/10 seconds where N = the number of stories ii. Ground periods: a. Soft Soil: Several Seconds b. Solid Rock: <1 Second iii. Building Periods: a. Tall Building: Several Seconds b. Short Building: Approximately 1 Second b. For example: The effect of the building shape c. Examples of structural design i. How to build a house to resist seismic waves: 1. Bolt it, bracket it, brace it, block it, panel it 4. Legislate construction regulations a. This ensures that builders actually do a) and b) b. Apply stringent building codes i. Choose appropriate building materials ii. Choose resistant building design iii. Legislate construction regulations 1. Aim of all three is to minimize damage to structures and all three lead to an increased (initial) cost 5. Set up warning systems and emergency response plans a. Earthquake warning systems and tsunami early-warning system. i. We can set up seismometers near faults. When they detect an earthquake, they transmit a radio signal to the more distant cities. This provides a warning of 15 seconds to 1 minute before seismic waves arrive at the cities. Enough time to shut off gas valves, stop trains, seek cover, etc. ii. Provide appropriate emergency equipment and personnel 1. Prepare emergency response plans iii. Education of the public 1. Information booklets 2. Earthquake drills 3. Etc. b. To minimize tsunami damage i. Sensors on ocean floor that detect sudden changes in ocean depth ii. Maintain natural shorelines 1. Mangrove trees lessen impact of tsunami wave

iii. Limit population centers along earthquake iv. Provide tsunami education/training 6. Try predicting earthquakes a. Long term i. Determine recurrence intervals ii. Look for seismic graphs 1. These are high risk areas (the stored energy is not being released (the fault is locked) and when it finally does get released, watch out) b. Short term i. Difficult (impossible) to pin point precise times of upcoming earthquakes 1. Because earthquake behavior is chaotic, short term prediction is not likely to work ii. However, changes preceding an earthquake might provide some warning 1. The main change as stress builds up is the formation of micro-cracks in rocks (a process known as dilatancy) (i.e. expansion in volume by cracks opening up) a. This can lead to: i. Ground bulge ii. Micro seismicity (small little earthquakes) and foreshocks (smaller earthquakes that happen before the big earthquake) iii. Increase in radon levels in wells iv. Drop in water levels in wells v. Drop in seismic velocity To try to reduce the probability of the hazard: 7. Try controlling earthquakes a. Slow creep on fault in Hollister, California i. Possibly because of the mineral talc that lubricates the fault b. Perhaps lubricate faults with water to possibly control earthquakes? i. Big risk that you can trigger a really big earthquake LECTURE 14-16

LECTURE 17-19 Where do earthquakes occur? 90% at depths less than 100km (the lithosphere is 100km thick) 10% at depths between 100 and 700km

Three kinds of plate margins: Constructive (Pulling Apart Normal Dip Slip Faults), Destructive (Colliding Into each other Reverse Dip Slip Faults), and Transform (Sliding Strike Slip Faults) Bulk of earthquakes occurs on plate boundaries Intra plate earthquakes can occur however: Intra plate earthquakes are earthquakes that occur away from plate margins (represent only about 1% of all earthquakes) Most intra plate earthquakes occur former plate margins The S waves stop at the boundary of the outer core telling us the outer core is liquid The Silly Putty Mantle The mantle, although solid, convects plastically. It behaves like Silly Putty (Elastico-Plastic). Plastic behavior during slow stress application. Elastic behavior during rapid stress applications.

Volcanic Risk Igneous Rocks Formed from the cooling and crystallization of magma (magma = liquid rock) Where does Magma Originate? Mainly in the upper mantle (down to approximately 200km) Sometimes in the crust Consider the plate tectonics framework Volcano Zones 1. Constructive Plate Margins a. Divergent 2. Destructive Plate Margins a. Convergent 3. Hot Spots a. Most commonly not at plate boundaries Magma generally rises due to its lower density Some magma reaches the earths surface (extrusive) Most magma crystallizes beneath earths surface (intrusive) Important Note: Magma contains dissolved gasses Generic Approach to Risk Analysis and Risk Management

Risk Analysis: 1. Understand the Hazard 2. Determine the risk from that hazard for the region at interest (risk =Ph x Sh) Risk Management: 1. Determine ways to reduce Ph and/or Sh 2. Do a cost-benefit analysis 3. Implement mitigation techniques if warranted Volcano Zones 1. Constructive plate margins (divergent) 2. Destructive plate margins (convergent) 3. Hot spots (most commonly not on plate boundaries ex. Hawai) Dealing with Volcanic Risk: We first need to consider the nature of magma of different compositions Chemical Composition: Magmas differ in the proportion of elements -> results in rocks of different colors -> and magmas with different properties More Si + O and less Fe + Mg -> rock is whiter/pinker -> Felsic Rock ex. Rhyolite More Fe + Mg and less Si + O -> rock is blacker -> Mafic Rock ex. Basalt Magmas: Felsic High Viscosity (sticky) High Si High H2O (>5%) Intermediate Intermediate Viscosity Intermediate Si Intermediate H2O (1 to 5%) Mafic Low Viscosity (very fluid) Low Si Low H2O (<1%)

Viscosity: A measure of the ease with which a fluid flows Low Viscosity -> Flows easily High Viscosity -> Does not flow easily Magma, when it comes out of the ground, will be in one of two forms: 1. Lava (liquid) 2. Pyroclastic material (hot particles) Magma reaches the surface by coming through either

1. Fractures (fissures) 2. Volcanic cones Fractures (fissures) i.e. cracks (where a dyke reaches surface mostly involve mafic lava (i.e. basalt) results in extensive lava sheets due to low viscosity ex. Iceland these are calm eruptions

Dangers of Fissure Eruptions generally quite safe major eruptions can generate atmospheric effects from SO2 gas (and CO2 gas) (ex. Laki eruption in Ireland) in particular, enormous flood basalt events may be catastrophic (linked to mass extinctions) (ex. 65 and 250 mya)

Volcanic Cones pipe like conduit and vent brings magma to surface eruptions range from calm to violent o depends on magma composition

Volcanic Cones 3 Main types 1. Cinder Cone the kind of material is pyroclastic 2. Stratovolcano (composite cone) material is lava and pyroclastic (felsic to intermediate material) a. They have a composite nature with layers of pyroclastic material and layers of lava that are intertwined b. Similar shape but much larger than cinder cone volcanoes 3. Shield Volcano material is lava which makes mafic rocks (calm eruptions) a. Shield volcanoes are much larger than stratovolcano but have a very flat shape b. They have the shape of a roman shield The most dangerous types of volcanoes are stratovolcanoes Their magma composition is felsic or intermediate o Therefore, the magma has High viscosity High water content o This leads to High steep sided volcanoes

Because of the pyroclastic ash that piles up with steep sides And because the sticky magma flows slowly down the sides maintaining steep slopes of the volcano Volcanoes that erupt violently The magma is water rich and sticky As the magma rises to the surface, there is a decrease in pressure o The gas (steam) bubbles try to expand and get out but the sticky magma prevents this from occurring o This eventually leads to an explosive expansion Also, stratovolcanoes occur along continental volcanoes where people like to live (i.e. subduction zones destructive plate margins)

Anatomy of a Stratovolcano 1. Lava Flows are generally safe because the lava does not flow very fast or very far Dangers of Stratovolcanoes (associated with subduction zones) 1. Air Fall Ash (Tephra) and Ash Clouds a. Air fall tephra (bombs, pumice, ash) can bury cities (ex. Mount Vesuvius, 79 AD buried Roman town of Pompeii) 2. Ash Hazards a. Airborne ash affects airplanes b. Think ash fall layer (10-15 cm thick) can cause roof collapse c. Very thin ash fall layer (< 1cm) can disrupt agriculture d. Intake of ash affects industry (ex. Hydroelectric and nuclear power stations) e. Human health hazard (inhalation, suffication) f. Atmospheric effects 3. Ash clouds a. Ash and sulphuric acid can block suns rays and can lower the global temperature for years (ex. Mount Tamboro, 1815 AD) Effects of Tambora eruption in 1815 AD In 1816 AD: 1. Famine in Europe a. The price of a sack of flour in 1816 and 1817 doubled (dropped down in 1818) b. Mary Shelly writes Frankenstein c. Byron composes his most miserable poem darkness d. Joseph Turner paints dramatic sunsets e. Massive emigration to California (the mackerel year) Dangers of Stratovolcanoes (cont.) Pyroclastic Flows

1. Ashflow (pyroclastic flow) a. Nuee ordente glowing cloud i. Travel downslope at up to 150km/h ii. Can travel more than 10km iii. Ex. Mt. Pelee 1903 AD b. Pyroclastic surge/blast (lateral blast) i. Travel 300km/h or faster ii. Can travel more than 10km iii. Ex. Mount St. Helens 2. Lahars (volcanic related mudflow) a. Ash on flanks of volcano mix with melted snow b. Flow down steep flanks of volcano and river valleys over distances greater than 100km c. Ex. Nevada del Ruiz d. Ex. Mount Saint Helens Other Potential Dangers 1. Tsunami a. For island arc volcanoes b. Sudden explosion can trigger a tsunami i. Ex. Krakatoa 2. Poisonous gases a. Various gases can create problems i. Ex SO2 can generate sulfuric acid in atmosphere ii. Ex. CO2 heavier than air 3. Caldera collapse and supervolcanoes a. Supervolcanoes are rare explosive supereruptions b. Can cover whole continents with ash c. Can have truly global catastrophic events (climate and weather) d. Ex. Eruption of Toba and Yellowstone (74,000 and 640,000 years ago respectively) e. What is the Global Long Term Recurrence Interval for Supereruptions? Like magnitude 9 earthquakes, they are rare Supereruptions are very, very rare o Average of 1 every 100,000 years

they probably present the greatest natural hazard to mankind in terms of the severity and longevity of impact the ultimate geologic hazard S. Self and S. Blake (2008)

Assess Volcanic Risk of Area

A) Locate and determine nature of volcanoes in the area a. Volcanoes are generally easy to find b. Look at world volcano maps (plate tectonics) c. What kind of volcano? i. Shape 1. Fissure 2. Shield volcanoes 3. Stratovolcanoes ii. Composition of the rock (mafic or felsic) B) Study the history of volcanoes in the area a. Past behavior is key to future behavior (usually) b. Nature of eruptive materials (any tephra? Pyroclastic flow deposits? Lahars?) i. Assess magnitude of events c. Determine recurrence intervals i. Ex. Carbon dating on trapped wood and K-Ar dating) ii. produce a frequency-magnitude curve iii. construct probability maps iv. active vs. dormant vs. dead C) determine geologic/geographic factors in the area a. Where are the valleys and river channels? i. routes for pyroclastic flows and lahars ii. what are prevailing wind directions 1. most likely way air fall ash will go iii. what are the risks of a tsunami? 1. Volcanoes in island arcs Use all this information to produce hazard maps Determine potential human interactions with the hazard Population distribution Nature of human infrastructure Proximity of people to high-risk zones

Carry out Preventative Measures (i.e. minimize damage) (after cost-benefit analysis) a) Apply land use planning and zoning a. Avoid high risk areas b) Apply building codes/build structures to minimize damage a. Not as easy to do as for seismic risk b. Roof design to withstand ash fall c. Concrete channel ways in valleys to control lahars and pyroclastic flows c) Set up emergency response plans

a. Education b. Evacuation plans (critical because there is usually plenty of warning time) c. Have emergency services in place d) Try predicting volcanic eruption a. Generally quite successful due to the nature of volcanic behavior i. Long Term: 1. Past history is a key to future behavior ii. Short Term: 1. Magma rises up from 5km deep (or more) over a lengthy time (weeks, months, years) a. Use methods to detect movement iii. Monitoring Methods 1. Seismology a. Magma pressure on rocks causes them to shift creating earthquakes i. Locate earthquake foci to determine footprint b. Measure the surface ground deformation (movement) i. Ex. Bulges, etc. ii. Use GPS to measure iii. Use tilt-meters to measure iv. Use radar interferometry c. Gas monitoring i. Volume of CO2 and SO2 ii. Gas volumes increase before eruptive event What Is Good About Volcanoes? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Builds up land (makes continents) They are beautiful (tourism) Geothermal energy Good soil for agriculture Generate ore deposits (precious metals) Atmosphere + hydrosphere effects a. Partly responsible for water b. CO2 producer (saved us from snowball earth) 7. Involved in life development

Mass Wasting The downslope movement of solid Earth materials under just the influence of gravity. How do we Minimize Damage from Landslides? 1. Understand the hazard Landslides and Risk Earthquakes and Volcanoes predominantly at plate tectonic boundaries Landslides landslides can occur anywhere there are slopes What determines whether a landslide occurs or not? 1. Slope steepness 2. Nature of the material a. Soil/aggregates (loose stuff) b. Solid rock i. How much friction? ii. How much internal strength? 3. Triggering effects a. Ex. Rainfall, earthquakes, human action, etc. Leads to a wide variety of down slope movements Classification of Landslides Your textbook talks of 4 variables: a) b) c) d) Mechanism of movement Type of material Amount of water present Rate of movement

The classification scheme incorporates all of these My scheme is a bit different from that in the textbook (Page 112) Rotational Slip (Soil) Translational Slip (Rock) Permafrost permanently frozen ground up to 100s of meters thick Active Zone ice melts in summer a) Locate and determine the nature of potentially dangerous slopes a. Studies on the ground b. Use of air photographs

b) Study the history of land slides in the area a. What kind of mass movement was there in the past? b. What is the recurrence interval for the events? i. Use Carbon 14 dating of dead organic matter c) What is/are the geologic/geographic controls? i. Nature of rocks/soils ii. Slope steepness, etc. d) What are the interactions of people with the slopes? i. Population distribution ii. Infrastructure (roads, buildings, dams, etc.) e) For a particular slope that you are worried about, carry out a safety factor analysis a. This determines the probability of failure of that slope (Ph) b. How safe is the slope? In Managing Risks in an area: Try to reduce Ph and/or Sh For earthquakes and volcanoes, we have little or no control on Ph, so most effort goes toward reducing Sh For landslides, we can actually reduce the probability of the hazard happening (Ph) Slope Stability and the Safety Factor Concept How exactly do we determine the probability of failure of the slope? (Ph) Use the example of an open-pit mine to explain this Goal To mine out the granite porphyry as cheaply as possible Dig pit walls on an angle so it doesnt cave in. How steep can you make the pit wall? Angle of potential failure plane = alpha Consider a block, of weight W, sitting on a slope of angle alpha Weight of a block (w) = volume (v) x density (e) x acceleration due to gravity (g) W = (w)(v)(e) Physics of Slope Stability of a Rock Mass Safety Factor a measure of the stability of the slope Safety Factor (S.F.) = Resisting Force / Driving Force If SF > 1, slope is stable If SF < 1, slope is unstable How do we determine resisting force and driving force? What determines whether a landslide occurs or not?

1. Slope Steepness 2. Nature of the Material If a box is sitting on a flat board, W = N If a box is sitting on a vertical board, W = T Otherwise, some of the weight is acting tangent and normal to the board Driving force = T Resisting force = N Sin alpha = T/W So: T = W x sin alpha Cos alpha = N/W so: N = W x cos alpha Therefore, driving force = T = W x sin alpha and resisting force = N = W x cos alpha

Consider the Different Terms in the Safety Factor 1. 2. 3. 4. How do we measure them? What are the possible errors that arise in measuring them? Which terms are most critical? Is there anything that we are missing in the analysis?

Safety Factor = (CA + (W x cos alpha x tan theta)) / w x sin alpha Safety Factor = Resisting Force / Driving Force A) Potential failure plane angle (alpha) a. The steeper alpha is, the lower the S.F. is b. The safety factor is very sensitive to a change in alpha (angle of potential failure plane) c. Therefore, a small change in alpha results in a big change in the safety factor B) In rocks, potential failure planes are planes of weakness and are also known as discontinuities a. These planes of weakness include i. Sedimentary bedding planes ii. Faults iii. Joints 1. Joints are cracks in rock where the blocks of rocks on either side of the crack have not moved with respect to each other 2. If the blocks have moved, it is a fault 3. Joints can form by:

a. Release of pressure when buried rocks are brought to Earths surface during weathering and erosion b. Squeezing of rocks c. Shrinking of igneous rocks as they cool following crystallization C) Weight of the potential failure block (w) a. The larger w is, the lower the Safety Factor is b. Increasing the slope of the pit wall decreases the Safety Factor c. Loading weight on a slope will decrease the Safety Factor d. Weight = volume x density x gravity i. During an earthquake, the gravity value can be locally changed because during the earthquake, the ground moves e. The effect of a change in weight on Safety Factor is not very great. Even a big increase in weight only causes a small decrease in Safety Factor but, if you are already near failure, a weight increase might push you over the edge D) Different materials have different strengths but there are problems of measuring strength (the strength terms are C and tan theta) a. What is the relationship between lab experiment and natural situation? b. What is the relationship between the intact rock versus the rock mass? c. What if there are thin, weak, rock layers that you fail to notice or sample? d. Weathered vs. un-weathered rocks E) The strength of a material can decrease by: a. Vibration affecting sensitive clays b. Sensitive clay/quick clay i. Changes strength dramatically when vibrated by earthquakes or heavy machinery or during slip ii. It liquefies c. The Safety Factor is extremely sensitive to a change in tan theta, but not very sensitive to a change in C i. A decrease in tan theta and/or C leads to a decrease in the Safety Factor Slope Stability and Water Water can infiltrate into the ground (groundwater). This can decrease the stability of slopes by: 1. Adding extra weight 2. Creating pore pressure that causes uplift Safety Factor = CA + N x tan theta / w x sin alpha (without water) Safety Factor = CA + (N-P) x tan theta / w x sin alpha (with water) Where P = pore pressure Therefore, adding water causes instability.

Water is absolutely critical. Linkages Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions can cause landslides Large landslides can trigger tsunamis

Human Impacts 1. Urbanization in land-slide prone regions 2. Tree cutting a. Removal of vegetation 3. Global climate-change effects 4. Dam construction Mitigation Techniques 1. Land use planning a. Stay away from unstable areas 2. Stabilize the slope (reduce Ph) a. Drainage control b. Rock bolts (slope support) c. Retaining walls; screens (slope support) d. Cut benches/create steps on the slope i. Helps localize where the failure occurs e. Reduce slope gradient by grading 3. Set up emergency response plans a. Education b. Emergency services (most critical for avalanches) 4. Try predicting landslides a. Carry out safety factor analyses b. Monitor slopes using i. Tilt meters ii. Monitoring stakes iii. Geophones iv. GPS v. Studies of water content vi. Studies of weather Note Cost/Benefit of Landslide Mitigation The benefit/cost ratio varies from 10 to 2,000 Therefore, for every dollar spent to mitigate the probability of the hazard happening, you save between $10 and $2,000. Thus, it is very successful and cost effective.

Water as a Hazard 1. Surface Water a. Flooding (over abundance) b. Drought (scarcity) c. Contamination 2. Ground Water a. Flooding b. Scarcity c. Contamination d. Can trigger landslides, earthquakes, etc. Ground Water Contamination Water can move underground and carry toxic chemicals We are interested in a sit in which precipitation falls on a waste dump and the water moves down and begins to contaminate (leachate contamination) We want to know: 1. In what direction will it move? 2. How fast will it move? As an example: Lets suppose that our open pit mine from our slope stability analysis is used to store garbage once the ore is mined out. Where is the potentially toxic leachate going to go? How can water move through solid soil and rock? The material must have empty spaces that are connected to each other. Ex. Sand soil or sandstone, cracked or jointed rock. Such material can act like a sponge. Close up of Sand Soil Sand soils are made up of sand grains and empty space. Porosity: The amount of empty space in the material Permeability: A measure of the ease with which water can flow through the material Such material can act like a sponge. For high permeability, the pores need to be connected. Can you think of a rock that has high porosity but very low permeability? Pumice Permeability can range from 0 to 100%. Some examples: Clay + claystone = low permeability Sand + sandstone = moderate to high permeability Gravel + conglomerate = very high permeability Most igneous rock = very low permeability and depends on fracture density

Karst limestone = can be very high (100%) permeability Fault zones = can be very high permeability Ok, lets look at a simple situation: permeable sand sitting on impermeable rock and then let it rain for a week and see what happens. The water will percolate the sand and will fill up the section of permeable sand. It will not be able to saturate the impermeable rock. Therefore, the sand fills part way up with water. The water table separates the zone of saturation and unsaturation. The zone of saturation is the part of the permeable substance that is filled up. The zone of unsaturation is the part of the permeable substance that is not filled up. The water table is the boundary between the saturated and unsaturated zones. In our example, we can find the water table by drilling a well. If the water table is flat (horizontal), the water will not flow laterally. But, if the water table is not flat, the water will flow laterally. Push up one side of a table. What direction will a marble roll down on the table top? The steepest side. To Find Groundwater Flow Direction: Drill several wells and measure the height of the water table for each well. Draw a map and draw on it lines of equal water-table height. (i.e. you contour them) Determine water-flow direction using 2 rules: 1. Water flows from higher water-table levels towards lower levels 2. Flow is always at right angles to the lines of actual water-table height Groundwater Movement 1. In what direction is it moving? 2. How fast is it moving? a. Take a sample to the lab and pump water through it i. Velocity depends on two things 1. Permeability of the material (K) 2. The force of the water from the tap (Hydraulic Gradient) ii. Pump water out of the ground and create a draw-down cone 1. Great for measuring permeability (K) and getting an idea of velocity iii. Put a tracer such as a dye into a well and see how long it takes to get into another well Rates of Groundwater Flow Slow! Only a few cm/day. (Compare to rivers at km/hour) Good: Stores water underground (acts like a dam) Good: Allows purification of water over short distances. Bad: Once contaminated, it takes a long time to flush out.

Climate Change Weather: Short-term (days to weeks) variations in atmospheric conditions (temperature/rainfall/etc.) Climate: Long-term (years/decades/centuries) variations in atmospheric conditions. Ex. Tropical vs. temperate vs. Arctic climate The Rock-Record tells us that there certainly has been climate change in the past. Ex. Look at Kingston, Ontario which was covered in ice sheets 20,000 years ago and covered in shallow tropical seas 500,000,000 years ago. Why Might Climate Change? 1. Natural Causes a. Ex. Increased solar luminosity (sun getting brighter) b. The sun provides more heat as time passes 2. Anthropogenic (Human-Induced) Causes a. Burning coal/oil/gas perhaps adding CO2 to the atmosphere and heating it Global warming already exists. Greenhouse gases heat our atmosphere and they include: H2O (water), CO2 (carbon dioxide), CH4 (methane), NOx (Nitrous Oxides), O3 (Ozone) Without them, the average Earth-surface temperature would be -20 degrees Celsius Specifically, enhanced global warming caused by humans burning coal, oil, and gas. Is There Enhanced Global Warming? 1. Have humans been changing the amounts of these greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere? a. Particularly carbon dioxide 2. If so, is it leading to a warming of the atmosphere 3. If 1 and 2 are true, then what is the rate of change? We will look at the hazard posed by enhanced global warming as an example of climate change. How does the hazard of climate change differ from other hazards we have discussed in the course? Generally, it is more complex and less-well understood. Is there enhanced global warming? 1. Is there an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide due to human action? Does all of the CO2 remain in the atmosphere and does it cause warming? We need to look at the recent history of atmospheric CO2 to determine if humans have affected it. Recent = The last 2 million years. How do we measure this? 1. Measure it directly day after day a. We have only been doing this since the 1950s

b. Shows positive correlation The saw tooth ups and downs in the CO2 levels are due to seasonal variations. In the winter, trees are dormant. Therefore, CO2 is not being extracted from the atmosphere. In the spring/summer, trees are active. Therefore, CO2 is being extracted from the atmosphere. Photosynthesis in Plants Carbon Dioxide + Water --> (Sunlight) Sugar + Oxygen 2. To go back farther in time, measure CO2 in air bubbles trapped in ice sheets in Antarctic and Greenland glaciers. a. This takes us back to over 400,000 years ago b. We can count the annual ice layers as we go deeper just like counting tree rings So: a) Todays level of atmospheric CO2 is way higher than it has been for the last 400,000 years b) The dramatic rise in atmospheric CO2 began with the Industrial Revolution Conclusion to First Question: Is CO2 in the atmosphere increasing due to human actions? Almost certainly yes. Second Question: Has the human-induced atmospheric CO2 increase led to an increase in atmospheric temperature? How do we determine global surface temperatures in the past? 1. Look at historical temperature readings (taken by humans) a. Since 1880 AD, there appears to have been an increase of around 1 degree centigrade 2. Look at ice cores To determine atmospheric temperatures from before humans were around, we must look at oxygen isotopes in the ice cores. Ice is H2O. There is heavy 18O and light 16O. When it is warmer, the heavier 18O evaporates from the sea because there is more energy to pick up the heavy oxygen. Thus, the snow falling on ice sheets has a larger 18O to 16O ratio when it is warmer. It appears that when CO2 is high, the temperature is high and when CO2 is low, the temperature is low. But maybe its not the increased CO2 that has caused the warming. Therefore, we need to consider all the factors that have changed that might have forced the temperature to increase (ex. Solar luminosity). Forcing Factors No doubt about it: Human produced greenhouse gases such as CO2 dominate. So:

Second Question: Has the human-induced atmospheric CO2 increase since the Industrial Revolution led to an increase in atmospheric temperature? Probably. IPCC computer models predict an atmospheric temperature increase of somewhere between 1.8 degrees and 4.0 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. We can also look at oxygen isotope ratios in fossil shells which are made up of calcium carbonate in mud layers in lakes. This can take us back to over 1 million years ago. Third Question: How do we determine if the rate of temperature increase since the Industrial Revolution has been unusually (and eventually dangerously) rapid. We can look back at the geological record of temperature change and their consequences. As an example, we will look at the younger dryas event about 12,000 years ago. Younger Dryas Event: We were warming up after the last glaciation, reaching temperatures near present values about 13,000 years ago. Suddenly, (in as little as a few decades), Europe plunged into severe cold (the younger dryas event). What caused this sudden cooling? Probably, the warming had produced massive amounts of cold, fresh meltwater from the ice sheets that suddenly was released into the North Atlantic Ocean. This resulted in the shutting off of the Oceanic Conveyor Belt which normally brings warm water into the North Atlantic to keep Europe warmer. So, one fear is that the anthropogenic warming since the Industrial Revolution may melt massive amounts of the Greenland Ice Sheet which could trigger another Younger Dryas type of event which could happen equally rapidly as the original event (a few decades or less). For natural effects causing climate change, lets look at the whole history of the Earth. This will provide us examples of the complex interaction of the 5 reservoirs of the Earth System. Five Reservoirs of Earth System: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Atmosphere Hydrosphere (water and ice) Solid Earth (rocks and soil) Life (biota) Stars and Planets

First Example: What caused the alternating glacial-interglacial periods over the past 2 million years? Sun-Earth orbit relationships (Milankovitch Cycles)

100,000 year cycle: out-of-roundness 41,000 year cycle: tilt 20,000 year cycle: wobble But why has the Earth been in a Glacial mode for the last 2 million years? This probably occurred because of Plate Tectonics. 1. Joined North and South America (which affected ocean currents) 2. Pushed up Himalayas Mountains (which affected air flow and increased the rate of weathering) CO2 Rock Weathering Cycle CaSiO3 (rock) + CO2 (air) CaCO3 + SiO3 (washed down in the sea) Then: Life forms build shells of CaCO3 and form carbonate deposits on the sea floor. The limestone is extracting CO2 out of the atmosphere, thus, the atmosphere cools. Another example of the role of life on the atmosphere: Times of peak coal formation 1. Approximately 300 million years ago (first major land plants) 2. Approximately 80 million years ago (first flowering plants) Plants in swamps die, get buried, and turn into coal and then they extract carbon from atmosphere and this therefore lowers atmospheric CO2, and increases atmospheric O2 Photosynthesis in plants: Carbon Dioxide + Water (sunlight) sugar + oxygen 6H2O + 6CO2 (sunlight) C6H12O6 + 6O2 The very high oxygen levels led to gigantic animals Other Natural Causes of Climate Change Volcanoes: a) Pump CO2 into atmosphere which causes a warming effect b) Pump ash into atmosphere which has a cooling effect Meteorite/Comet Impact: Potentially dramatic and could cause rapid climate change. This can lead to mass extinctions. Ex. 65 million years ago dinosaur extinction. Another Example: We also have evidence that the early earth had almost no free O2 in the atmosphere. A special rock, called banded iron formation, is restricted in age. Its emergence marks an increase in O2 in the atmosphere.

Banded Iron Formation (BIF) is our main source of Iron. Huge BIF deposits formed between 2.3 and 1.9 billion years ago. Without O2: Iron is very soluble in water. With O2: Iron is not very soluble in water. It precipitates out as iron oxide minerals such as magnetite (Fe3O4) making banded iron formation. Oxyatmoinversion: The atmosphere went from Oxygen poor to Oxygen rich around 2.4-1.8 billion years ago. This caused Iron to be precipitated out of seawater to make Banded Iron Formation. Where did the Oxygen come from? Photosynthetic life (planktonic cyanobacteria). The oxygen levels rose significantly approximately 800 million years ago (Metazoa). So: In the first billion years of the Earths history, the atmosphere was: Very poor in oxygen (O2) but very rich in Carbon Dioxide (CO2) But, how do we know it was CO2 Rich? Because water wasnt frozen back then. If we had no atmosphere at all, Earths surface temperature would be minus 20 degrees Celsius. What kept the early Earth Warm? An atmosphere rich in CO2 (like Venus). But that had to change or we would have gotten too hot. Early atmosphere: CO2 rich and O2 poor. This kept the surface warm (greenhouse effect) Later atmosphere: CO2 poor and O2 rich due to life forms. Where did the oxygen come from? Photosynthetic life. Consider the Carbon Cycle: Life moderates the surface temperature. Role of life in Atmospheric Change: Examples 1. Humans burning fossil fuels a. Increasing atoms CO2 b. Enhanced global warming 2. Marine organisms building CaCO3 shells to make limestone a. Reducing atoms CO2 b. Cooling atoms 3. Coal formation a. Extracts CO2 from atoms b. Stores C as coal c. Decreases CO2 and increases O2 in atoms

4. Early photosynthetic cyanobacteria a. Produce O2 in early atoms b. Create oxyatmoinversion (early earth no O2) In 1979, James Lovelock developed the Gaia hypothesis. A bold statement recognizing the Earth as a complex Earth System with life being an intimate player in affecting Earth behavior. Gaia Theory: All life and all the material parts of the Earths surface make up a single system, a kind of meta-organism, and a living planet. James Lovelock a tightly coupled system whose constituents are the biota, the atmosphere, the oceans, and the surface rock with self-regulation of important properties like climate and chemical composition Part of the Gaian Theory: Life moderates the Earths surface temperature. This helps to maintain conditions in which life can exist.