Gueymard
15 min
1 hr
Plots and maps provide this variability in terms of Coefficient of Variation (COV): COV = St. Dev. / Mean
This is significant at only a 66% probability level. For a bankable 95% probability, double the COV results.
C.A. Gueymard, Fixed or tracking solar collectors? Helping the decision process with the Solar Resource Enhancement Factor. SPIE Conf. #7046, 2008. S. Wilcox and C.A. Gueymard, Spatial and temporal variability in the solar resource in the United States. ASES Conf., 2010.
http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/new_data/variability
Early brightening
Dimming
Brightening
M. Wild et al., J. Geophys. Res. 114D, doi:10.1029/2008JD011382, 2009 M. Wild, J. Geophys. Res. 114D, doi:10.1029/2008JD011470, 2009
Consequences
Spatial Variability
Spatial variability is important for two reasons: In regions of low spatial variability, use of low-res resource maps (e.g., 100x100 km) might be OK, at least for preliminary design. Conversely, in regions of high spatial variability, only hi-res maps (10x10 km or better) should be used. If variability is high, measured data from only nearby weather stations should be trusted.
5x5 matrix 10x10 km grid cells
S. Wilcox and C.A. Gueymard, Spatial and temporal variability in the solar resource in the United States. ASES Conf., 2010.
Hourly frequencies of 19912005 NSRDB data used to obtain TMY3 for Golden, CO. Compared to measurements, note the NSRDB and TMY3 overestimations below 900 W/m2, and underestimations above.
16 Frequency %
12 8
4 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2
700
800
900
1000 1100
Local Measurements
Critical part of solar resource assessment, necessary to sort out local variability effects at different time scales! Two types of weather stations, depending on radiometer technology. Minimum measurement period recommended: 1 year. Performance and prices vary [Ask us for more details and custom solutions!] These short-term measurements should then be used to correct long-term satellite-based modeled data using appropriate statistical methods.
Thank you!
http://www.SolarConsultingServices.com