A Network Analysis of Users Mentioning Malaysian Politicians on Twitter, April 2010 November 2011

The purpose of this report is to explore the connections between users on Twitter and the dominant political coalitions in Malaysia Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR), based on mentions of politicians. Politweet has been tracking mentions of Malaysian politicians on Twitter (based on their @username) since April 2010. Mentions up to November 2011 were compiled and analysed to produce the visualisation shown in Figure 1 (on the next page). This visualisation shows the distribution of users on Twitter based on their mentions of BN politicians (represented by the blue circle, or node, on the left) and PR politicians (represented by the red node on the right). It serves as an illustration of the bias users have towards PR and BN. Whether that bias is positive or negative is an issue to be explored in a future paper. The dataset used contains a total population of 72,214 users with 1,002,027 mentions of BN or PR politicians forming 87,727 connections to BN and PR. An additional dataset of politicians combined followers was used for comparison in the summary this set contained 475,567 users.

1. Understanding the Visualisation

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Each user is represented by a grey node. BN politicians are represented by the blue node on the left. PR politicians are represented by the red node on the right. A connection from the user to the PR and/or BN nodes exists if the user mentioned a politician from either coalition by their @username. Connections to PR are shown as red lines, and connections to BN are shown as blue lines. Layers of connections result in a greater concentration of the colour red or blue. Lines also create a glow around them, which can be seen clearly around the PR node. The strength of a connection is based on the number of mentions. Strong connections pull nodes closer to that respective coalitions node. Users connected to both BN and PR, are placed along the gap between both nodes. The placement is based on the ratio of mentions to both coalitions. E.g. if BN mentions were higher, the user will be placed closer towards the BN node. Nodes with only one connection to BN/PR will cluster themselves around the respective node in concentric circles and semi-circles. Users who made the most mentions will be concentrated at the centre of the node, while those who made the least mentions will be pushed to the outer circles.

9.

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Figure 1. Visualisation of users mentioning Malaysian politicians, April 2010 November 2011

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2. Population characteristics
Total population Total mentions BN mentions* PR mentions* Politicians BN politicians PR politicians 72,214 users 1,002,027 tweets 483,717 535,689 131 49 82

48.27% of total mentions 53.46% of total mentions 37.4% of politicians 62.6% of politicians

Notes on the data: Politicians include elected Members of Parliaments (MP), State Assemblymen (ADUN), Senators, top leaders of their respective parties (e.g. President, Vice President, Central Executive Committee members) and former national leaders (e.g. former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed) Some mentions include both PR and BN politicians, which is why the percentages add up to 101.73%.

2.1 Observations
In terms of mention volume, PR leads BN by a margin of 5.19%. However in terms of users, BN has attracted a much larger segment of the population. Three groups could be identified based on the distribution of users: Group BN-exclusive users % of population 55.5 Description Users who only mentioned BN politicians Clustered in concentric circles around the BN node on the left Users who only mentioned PR politicians Clustered in concentric circles around the PR on the right Users who mentioned both BN and PR politicians Distributed in-between the BN and PR nodes - mostly clustered along a chain between both nodes

PR-exclusive users BN + PR inclusive users

23.0 21.5

The areas covered by these groups are highlighted in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Shaded areas indicate the nodes covered by the respective groups 14th December 2011 page 3 Copyright 2011, Politweet.org

3. Exclusive Groups

Figure 3. A close-up view of the BN-exclusive users. The chain of inclusive users extends to the BN node itself
BN 40,085 (55.5% of the population) 103,275 (10.3% of total mentions) 2.57 60.65% PR 16,614 (23.0% of the population) 44,926 (4.5% of total mentions) 2.70 62.50%

Exclusive users Exclusive mentions Mention rate, tweets/user Casual mention rate (only 1 mention)

The BN-exclusive group is much larger than PR's. However the average amount of mentions per user (mention rate) is higher in the PR-exclusive group. The ratio of mention rates between the 2 groups is PR 2.70 : BN 2.57 mentions/user. PR also has a higher casual mention rate - 62.5% of PR-exclusive users only made 1 mention, compared to BN-exclusive users with 60.65% having made 1 mention. The higher mention rate and higher casual mention rate implies that PR has attracted a smaller, more talkative group of users compared to BN. However the PR-exclusive users generated less mentions than the BN-exclusive group and BN + PR inclusive group.

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4. BN + PR Inclusive Group
Total inclusive users Total inclusive mentions BN inclusive mentions* PR inclusive mentions* 15,513 users 853,826 tweets 380,442 490,763 21.5% of population 85.21% of total mentions 37.97% of total mentions 78.65% of total BN mentions 48.98% of total mentions 91.61% of total PR mentions

The users in this group are almost evenly distributed in clusters between BN and PR, with a slight bias towards BN. This group contributed 85.21% of the mentions during the reporting period. It is estimated that this group contains a mix of PR supporters who criticise BN; BN supporters who criticise PR; aggregators; and apolitical users who tweet to politicians from both sides.

4.1 Measuring the bias towards BN

Figure 4. A close-up of the centre region with arrows indicating the direction of movement towards the BN node 100% of the users in this group have made at least 2 mentions 1 mention of a PR politician and 1 mention of a BN politician. The percentage of this group that have made >=2 mentions of PR and BN respectively is: Mentions 1 (casual mention rate) >= 2 BN 22% 78% PR 28.2% 71.8%

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At >=2 mentions, the overlap between the BN and PR sets is at most 71.8%. This means that in terms of users, BN has a smaller casual user-base compared to PR. Higher mentions draw users closer to the BN and PR nodes. This difference accounts for the slightly larger clusters moving towards BN, most noticeably in the centre region.

4.2 Examining the distribution of tweets

91.61% of total PR mentions came from this group. Like the PR-exclusive group, this group has a higher casual mention rate for PR mentions compared to BN. This implies that a majority of the mentions were coming from a smaller minority compare to BN. Ranking users separately by the number of tweets to each coalition revealed that implication to be true. 26.84% of PR mentions were made by the top 100 PR-mentioning users whereas 24.23% of BN mentions were made by the top 100 BN-mentioning users. The BN mentions were more widely distributed among users.

5. Summary
Some facts derived from the data: 1. More users exclusively mention BN politicians compared to those that exclusively mention PR politicians. 2. More users mention BN politicians in the inclusive group. 3. Mentions of PR politicians come from a smaller minority compared to mentions of BN politicians which are more evenly distributed. 4. Overall, PR gets mentioned more often than BN, but by a smaller user base A high volume of mentions is good for exposure of the politicians usernames to the users followers, in addition to spreading awareness of political issues. However the small size of the PR-exclusive group, the BN bias of the inclusive group, and the high casual mention rates for PR indicate that a high volume of mentions has not served to attract more people to mention PR. A similar pattern was found when comparing the combined followers of BN and PR politicians: Users mentioning politicians Politicians followers Total population 72,214 475,567 BN-exclusive 40,085 (55.5%) 269,781 (56.73%) PR-exclusive 16,614 (23.0%) 105,856 (22.26%) BN and PR inclusive 15,513 (21.5%) 99,930 (21.01%) (Note: users who mention politicians do not necessarily follow those politicians) PR has 82 politicians on Twitter versus BN that has 49 politicians. Statistically PR has a better chance of acquiring followers and getting mentions because it has more content producers. The figures indicate potential issues with the Twitter strategy being employed (if there is one).

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These issues apply to both politicians and other users, and can be addressed with the methods described: 1. Poor structure of the mention a. Tweets beginning with a @username are only seen by followers who follow both the sender and recipients b. A conversation worth sharing with a users followers should start with a . or be a reply prefixed to an RT 2. Poor quality of mentions a. Not every tweet is worth sharing with followers b. A tweet may be read in isolation, so context is important c. Avoid writing a series of tweets. Twitter pushes a sample of tweets to a users timeline based on the number of active users they are following. If there are too many active tweets, only the latest will be sent and the earlier part of the series doesnt show. 3. Excessive quantity of mentions a. Spamming users only encourages them to report you as a bot and have your account suspended b. Writing too many tweets within a short period either pollutes your followers timeline or causes Twitter to filter out your tweets 4. Bad timing of tweets a. A majority of active Twitter users use it on their mobile during the day b. Tweeting late at night (a common practice by politicians) means a majority of followers dont see it 5. Inappropriate user behaviour a. E.g. starting arguments; spamming other users or politicians; use of foul language; racial remarks; portraying rumour as fact b. These behaviours turn-off users from taking part in the conversation, and at worse damage the reputation of the party/coalition (e.g. a party youth leader making insensitive remarks) 6. Lack of linkage of politicians real-life events with Twitter a. Include the politicians Twitter @username on all printed publicity materials e.g. banners b. Arrange for live coverage of an event via Twitter These issues will be explored in a future report. For further information and discussion please contact admin@politweet.org or visit our website at http://www.politweet.org .

Appendix 1: Top 50 BN and PR politicians, ranked by the number of users who mentioned them
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 @Username NajibRazak AnwarIbrahim Khairykj MukhrizMahathir n_izzah hannahyeoh limkitsiang tonypua Azminali tianchua niknazmi Full name Najib Tun Razak Anwar Ibrahim Khairy Jamaluddin Mukhriz Mahathir Nurul Izzah Anwar Hannah Yeoh Lim Kit Siang Tony Pua Azmin Ali Tian Chua Nik Nazmi page 7 Coalition BN PR BN BN PR PR PR PR PR PR PR Users Mentions 42824 177887 17418 109080 16175 118549 7389 24428 5291 25683 4841 24358 4835 30742 3948 25483 3737 19717 3730 19085 3667 29424 Copyright 2011, Politweet.org

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12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

cmlimguaneng elizabethwong ShahrizatJalil mpkotabelud hishammuddinh2o Khalid_Ibrahim weekasiongmp saifuddinabd nikabdulaziz khalidsamad PKamalanathan teresakok mbnizar DrDzul MahfuzOmar ShamsulIskandar drchuaSL saifnasution TeoNieChing chedet_cc fuziah99 tengchangkhim syedhusinali Tantawi100 nohomar liowtionglai drwanazizah SivarasaRasiah GobindSinghDeo ngakorming docmarjan changlihkang simtzetzin mkula limlipeng anthonyloke wongholeng abdulhadiawang Yusmadi

Lim Guan Eng Elizabeth Wong Shahrizat Jalil Abdul Rahman Dahlan Hishammudin Hussein Khalid Ibrahim Wee Ka Siong Saifuddin Abdullah Nik Abdul Aziz Khalid Samad Kamalanathan Teresa Kok Nizar Jamaluddin Dzulkefly Ahmad Mahfuz Omar Shamsul Iskandar Chua Soi Lek Saifuddin Nasution Teo Nie Ching Tun Mahathir Mohamed Fuziah Salleh Teng Chang Khim Syed Husin Ali Nasrudin Hassan Noh Omar Liow Tiong Lai Wan Azizah Sivarasa Rasiah Gobind Singh Nga Kor Ming Dr Lo Lo Chang Lih Kang Sim Tze Tzin M.Kulasegaran Lim Lip Eng Anthony Loke Wong Ho Leng Abdul Hadi Awang Yusmadi Yusoff

PR PR BN BN BN PR BN BN PR PR BN PR PR PR PR PR BN PR PR BN PR PR PR PR BN BN PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR

3651 3375 3263 3218 2994 2972 2713 2334 2301 2017 1934 1924 1818 1796 1791 1767 1603 1535 1461 1436 1426 1362 1314 1249 1222 1181 1149 1141 1111 1042 1040 1021 996 921 916 894 843 836 769

22497 17932 12134 35420 12667 12944 22804 15261 8413 15655 12206 7822 7231 9872 10808 13410 11812 6845 7055 2426 16833 6029 5543 5684 5124 3964 3373 4213 3468 5293 5602 7392 3884 6069 4111 3374 3186 2880 2463

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