Manasi Godbole Media and the Political Process Media Bias

In considering media bias, I chose to focus my attention on coverage of former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrichs progress in the run-up to the nomination of a GOP candidate for Presidential election. Using ten articles each from four major news sources (the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, and the Christian Science Monitor), I analyzed each article in terms of the specific treatment of Speaker Gingrich. My purpose in doing this was to gauge the impact on neutrality of positions considered novel or radical held by a candidate hopeful, rather than simply partisan affiliation or a liberal vs. conservative viewpoint. According to the minimal effects model, the demographic most susceptible to media influence is composed of those who are lacking pre-formed political convictions and are moderately interested in politics; on this basis, I expected to find that bias in mass Media coverage of Newt Gingrichs current political activity would be shaped organically by his potential, as well as his actual successes, in terms of commanding or maintaining center appeal. In the following paragraphs, I will detail the quantifiable results of my research as determined through several methods of interpretation, which begins with determining whether or not an article is biased, as

Rate of bias per source 5 4 3 2 1 0 Positive Negative Neutral NY Times LATimes Washington Post CS Monitor

well as the degree to which it is biased and the frequency of the occurrence of negative vs. positive bias, both per source and overall. To begin, I determined whether or not an article rated as demonstrating positive or negative bias by identifying the number of positive, negative and neutral paragraphs contained in each article, and then determining the percentages made up by each. Using this method, I considered the number of articles, per source and overall, that demonstrated positive or negative bias, or neutrality. Out of 40 total articles, 10 articles contained a higher percentage of paragraphs that indicated a favorable opinion of Newt Gingrich, while 15 articles were negative and 15 were neutral. While the figures here indicate overall negative bias, the distribution of bias shows that as many articles displayed an unfavorable view of Gingrich as did neutral or balanced views. Ultimately, however, Gingrich inspired more biased (negative and positive) articles than balanced articles, at a ratio of 5:3. To better understand the make up of bias in the coverage of Newt Gingrichs campaign to earn a Republican nomination for Presidential candidacy, I considered the degree to which negative articles were biased, as compared to the degree to which positive articles were biased. By averaging the positive or negative scores and dividing by the number of articles of each type, I determined that, overall, negatively biased articles rated higher in their degree of bias, even in the New York Times, where the amount of negative articles was outnumbered by positive.

Averaged degree of bias per source

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 NYTimes LATimes Wash. Post CS Monitor Negative Positive

The data also shows that the difference in degree of bias at each end corresponds per source to the difference in rate of positive and negative coverage. The Christian Science monitor only demonstrated a .05 difference in the averaged degrees of negative and positive bias, while the New York Times articles I sampled differed by .30. In conjunction with my other findings, which determined that negative bias was both more numerous and more potent than positive bias, I considered a factor of the articles which was far more difficult to precisely quantify than rate or degree of bias, but which may offer some insight into media perception (and subsequent presentation) of a figure as controversial as Newt Gingrich. I examined each article to determine whether positive, negative, or no bias was expressed in terms of discussing Gingrichs personal behavior and personality or his policy and political actions, as much as the two can be distinguished.

20 15 10 5 0 Negative Positive or Neutral Behavior Policy

I determined, from this method of interpretation, that articles which were either balanced or

positively biased focused on actual policy or official actions, whereas his personal behavior and history are discussed in a far more negative light. My data drives me to the conclusion that the majority of coverage of Newt Gingrich, currently, is characterized by a positive or neutral take on the Speakers policies and official actions. These findings do not, however, point to a general acceptance of Newt Gingrichs policies, but rather reflect the fact that matters of a more personal nature inspire reactions of a more personal nature and are subject to less neutral scrutiny. Ultimately, my findings more or less contradict my hypothesis: despite the fact that some of the more extreme policies proposed by Gingrich have highly limited appeal (i.e., amending child labor laws to accommodate youth work-study programs), articles featuring details of these policy proposals were neither infrequent nor negatively biased for their lack of central appeal. The primary reason for this, I believe, holds contextual significance in terms of the recent rotation of Republican contenders for nomination to the Presidential race. As those who are either not susceptible to media influence or averse to any level of political participation (on one end and the other of the spectrum within the minimal effects model) are not the target readership for these articles, the priority of the media is vetting politicians for those who are uninformed but seeking education. As such, the media, even through balanced or neutral coverage, injects their agenda through priming: where overt expression of bias may simply serve to alienate an undecided reader, neutral coverage has the power to direct the readers line of focus to areas a source or individual writer finds problematic.

New York Times 11/16/2011: Gingrich on Defensive Over Freddie Mac Fees (- .4) http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/16/freddie-mac-reportedly-paid-gingrichat-least-1-6-million/?scp=11&sq=newt%20gingrich&st=cse 11/17/2011: Gingrich Faces More Scrutiny Over Corporate Clients (+ .1) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/18/us/politics/newt-gingrich-faces-more-scrutiny-oncorporate-clients.html 11/19/2011: From Gingrich, an Unconventional View of Education (0) http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/19/from-gingrich-an-unconventional-viewof-education/?scp=12&sq=newt%20gingrich&st=cse 11/23/2011: Gingrichs Words on Immigration Become a Target (+ .16) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/24/us/politics/newt-gingrichs-words-on-immigrationbecome-a-target.html?pagewanted=1&sq=newt%20gingrich&st=cse&scp=15 11/28/2011: Gingrich Wields History, Seeking to Add Chapter (- .4) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/us/politics/newt-gingrich-a-student-of-history-isdetermined-to-influence-it.html?scp=34&sq=newt%20gingrich&st=cse 12/01/2011: A Promise to Avoid Negative Advertising (+.3) http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/01/a-promise-to-avoid-negativeadvertising/?scp=13&sq=newt%20gingrich&st=cse 12/01/2011: Gingrich Says He Was Acting as a Citizen, Not a Lobbyist (0) http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/01/gingrich-says-he-was-acting-as-acitizen-not-a-lobbyist/?scp=7&sq=newt%20gingrich%20&st=cse

12/06/2011: When Gingrichs Big Thoughts Backfire (+ .2) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/06/us/politics/campaign-2012-when-gingrichs-bigthoughts-backfire.html?scp=22&sq=newt%20gingrich&st=cse 12/11/2011: Democrats Shift Aim to Gingrich After Debate (- .6) http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/11/democrats-shift-aim-to-gingrich-afterdebate/?scp=30&sq=newt%20gingrich&st=cse 12/9/2011: Gingrich Calls Palestinians an Invented People (+ .08) http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/gingrich-calls-palestinians-an-inventedpeople/?scp=14&sq=newt%20gingrich&st=cse

Washington Post 12/01/2011: Gingrichs message to Iowa: Im the future (+.01) http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/gingrichs-message-to-iowaim-the-future/2011/12/01/gIQAQupDHO_blog.html 12/02/2011: Chaos in Gingrichs past raise concern about steady hand on nations tiller (-.16) http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/chaos-in-gingrichs-past-raise-concernabout-steady-hand-on-nations-tiller/2011/12/02/gIQAldVpJO_story.html 12/02/2011: Surging in the opinion polls, Gingrich bets on unconventional strategy to actually beat Romney (0) http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/campaigns/surging-in-the-opinion-pollsgingrich-bets-on-unconventional-strategy-to-actually-beatromney/2011/12/02/gIQA0ISvLO_story.html 12/03/2011: Republican hopefuls make pitch at Huckabee forum (0) http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republican-hopefuls-make-pitch-at-huckabeeforum/2011/12/03/gIQAi2ZVQO_story.html 12/07/2011: Romney, Gingrich court Jewish support with barbs at Obamas policies (0) http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/romney-gingrich-court-jewishsupport/2011/12/07/gIQAxybbdO_story.html 12/10/2011: Gingrich defends his comments calling Palestinians an invented people, says he was accurate (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/gingrich-defends-his-comments-callingpalestinians-an-invented-people-says-he-wasaccurate/2011/12/10/gIQAKvqqlO_story.html 12/10/2011: Gingrich targeted by GOP presidential rivals, goes after Romney in return during Iowa debate (-.25) http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/in-presidential-debate-gingrich-brings-frontrunner-status-thats-likely-to-make-him-a-target/2011/12/10/gIQAuOW0jO_story.html 12/11/2011: Arab League official says Gingrich comments on Palestinians irresponsible, dangerous (- .1) http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/arab-league-official-says-gingrichscomments-on-palestinians-irresponsible-anddangerous/2011/12/11/gIQA91RInO_story.html 12/11/2011: Romney and other Republicans scramble to blunt Gingrichs momentum (- .04) http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/romney-and-other-republicans-scramble-toblunt-gingrichs-momentum/2011/12/11/gIQAInYJoO_story.html 12/13/2011: Newt Gingrich: A Republican master of the stage (-.4) http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/newt-gingrich-a-republican-master-ofceremonies/2011/11/07/gIQAx7ZasO_story.html

Los Angeles Times 11/23/2011: Newt Gingrich a wild card in shuffling deck of Republicans (-.1) http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-gop-2012-gingrich20111124,0,7858513.story?page=1 12/01/2011: Newt Gingrich comeback surprises even the candidate himself (-.05) http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-gingrich-campaign20111201,0,6923880.story 12/06/2011: Can Newt be stopped? Two new polls put him ahead in early states (0) http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-gingrich-polls-20111206,0,365737.story 12/10/2011: Newt Gingrich targeted over policy, personal life in GOP debate (-.09) http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-debate-wrap-20111210,0,2972131.story 12/10/2011: Newt Gingrich defends calling Palestinians 'an invented' people (0)

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-gingrich-palestinians20111210,0,7898960.story 12/10/2011: All eyes to be on Newt Gingrich at Iowa debate (0) http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-iowa-debate-preview-20111210,0,6411110.story 12/10/2011: Newt Gingrich vows not to attack GOP rivals (+.25) http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-gingrich-iowa-20111210,0,4430077.story 12/10/2011: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich spar over moon mining, child labor (0) http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-gop-debate-20111210,0,5515351.story 12/13/2011: After ripping Romney, Gingrich pledges 'positive' campaign (-.25) http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-after-ripping-romney-gingrich-pledgespositive-campaign-20111213,0,4154302.story 12/13/2011: Gingrich tax plan would slash revenue, add billions to deficit (0) http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-gingrich-tax-plan-would-add-billions-todeficit-20111213,0,2167869.story

Christian Science Monitor 11/28/2011: With Union Leader endorsement, can Newt Gingrich catch Mitt Romney? (+.1) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2011/1128/With-Union-Leaderendorsement-can-Newt-Gingrich-catch-Mitt-Romney 11/30/2011: Is Mitt Romney nomination really inevitable anymore? (0) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/1130/Is-Mitt-Romney-nomination-reallyinevitable-anymore 12/02/2011: Newt Gingrich stomps Mitt Romney in Florida poll (0) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/From-the-Wires/2011/1202/Newt-Gingrichstomps-Mitt-Romney-in-Florida-poll 12/04/2011: Newt Gingrich surges in Iowa. Will it last? (-.05) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2011/1204/Newt-Gingrich-surgesin-Iowa.-Will-it-last

12/05/2011: Is Newt Gingrich the GOP candidate Obama prefers to face? (+.05) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2011/1205/Is-Newt-Gingrich-theGOP-candidate-Obama-prefers-to-face 12/06/2011: Time for Mitt Romney to take on Newt Gingrich? (-.16) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2011/1206/Time-for-Mitt-Romneyto-take-on-Newt-Gingrich 12/06/2011: Newt Gingrich meets with Donald Trump, begins first ad in Iowa (0) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Latest-News-Wires/2011/1206/Newt-Gingrich-meetswith-Donald-Trump-begins-first-ad-in-Iowa 12/06/2011: Why Newt Gingrich is likely to win Iowa (+.2) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/From-the-Wires/2011/1206/Why-NewtGingrich-is-likely-to-win-Iowa 12/07/2011: Is Newt Gingrich killing Mitt Romney with kindness? (-.1) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2011/1207/Is-Newt-Gingrich-killingMitt-Romney-with-kindness 12/10/2011: As debate approaches, Republicans, conservatives target Newt Gingrich (-.4) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2011/1210/As-debate-approachesRepublicans-conservatives-target-Newt-Gingrich