Risk Identification
Risk Management Planning Risk Identification
Risk Classification
Risk Quantification Risk Qualification
Risk Analysis
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
J. Contr. Engg. Mgmt. Int. J. Proj. Mgmt. J. Mgmt. in Engg. Contr. Mgmt. and Econom. Advances in Engg. Software Build. and Envt. Risk Management
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JRAP Development in Construction Projects Oztas and Okmen 2005 JRAP Judgmental Risk Analysis Process
Update the Model Control the progress Respond to Risks
MS Excel
Judgment
Crystal Ball
MS Project
Classify
Exploring Monte Carlo Simulation Applications for Project Management Kwak and Ingall 2007
Monte Carlo Simulation A technique that computes or iterates the project cost or schedule many times using input values selected at random from probability distributions of possible costs or durations, to calculate a distribution of possible total project cost or completion dates. (PMI 2004) Used during risk quantification process.
Time Management MCS is applied to quantify the confidence the project manager should have in the target completion date or total project duration.
Cost Management Project manager can use MCS to better understand project budget and estimate final budget at completion.
Program and Portfolio Management When making capital budgeting and investment decisions, MCS assists managers in choosing among different potential investments and projects.
Construction Project Network Evaluation with CSRAM Okmen and Oztas 2008 CSRAM Correlated Schedule Risk Analysis Model
Next Iteration (@Risk) Random Number Generation #1 (@Risk) Start Simulation Iteration #1 (@Risk) Obtain Risk Factor Situations (MS Excel) Input (MS Excel)
Methodology for Integrated Risk Management and Proactive Scheduling of Construction Projects Schatteman et al. 2008
Heuristic Buffer Insertion Algorithm - Starting Time Criticality (STC) - 99% certainty that the project delivery date will be met.
Validating Estimates
Quantifying Schedule Risk in Construction Projects using BBNs Luu et al. 2009
Yes
No Develop a BBN Model to Quantify Risks of Time Overruns Estimate and Assign the Conditional Probabilities to Factors Compute the Probabilities of Construction Delay using MSBNx Software Is the Model Validated? Yes Draw Conclusions and Recommendations
Managing Construction Projects using the APRAM Model Imbeah and Guikema 2009 APRAM - Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis and Management