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Chapter 5

Discrete Distributions

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

The overall learning objective of Chapter 5 is to help you understand a category of probability

distributions that produces only discrete outcomes, thereby enabling you to:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Know how to determine the mean and variance of a discrete distribution.

Identify the type of statistical experiments that can be described by the binomial

distribution and know how to work such problems.

Decide when to use the Poisson distribution in analyzing statistical experiments and

know how to work such problems.

Decide when binomial distribution problems can be approximated by the Poisson

distribution and know how to work such problems.

Decide when to use the hypergeometric distribution and know how to work such

problems

Chapters 5 and 6 introduce the student to several statistical distributions. It is important

to differentiate between the discrete distributions of chapter 5 and the continuous distributions of

chapter 6.

The approach taken in presenting the binomial distribution is to build on techniques

presented in chapter 4. It can be helpful to take the time to apply the law of multiplication for

independent events to a problem and demonstrate to students that sequence is important. From

there, the student will more easily understand that by using combinations, one can more quickly

determine the number of sequences and weigh the probability of obtaining a single sequence by

that number. In a sense, we are developing the binomial formula through an inductive process.

Thus, the binomial formula becomes more of a summary device than a statistical "trick". The

binomial tables presented in this text are non cumulative. This makes it easier for the student to

recognize that the table is but a listing of a series of binomial formula computations. In addition,

it lends itself more readily to the graphing of a binomial distribution.

distribution problems. It is often difficult for students to determine which type of distribution to

apply to a problem. The Poisson distribution applies to rare occurrences over some interval. The

parameters involved in the binomial distribution (n and p) are different from the parameter

(Lambda) of a Poisson distribution.

It is sometimes difficult for students to know how to handle Poisson problems in which

the interval for the problem is different than the stated interval for Lambda. Note that in such

problems, it is always the value of Lambda that is adjusted not the value of x. Lambda is a

long-run average that can be appropriately adjusted for various intervals. For example, if a store

is averaging customers in 5 minutes, then it will also be averaging 2 customers in 10

minutes. On the other hand, x is a one-time observation and just because x customers arrive in 5

minutes does not mean that 2x customers will arrive in 10 minutes.

Solving for the mean and standard deviation of binomial distributions prepares the

students for chapter 6 where the normal distribution is sometimes used to approximate binomial

distribution problems. Graphing binomial and Poisson distributions affords the student the

opportunity to visualize the meaning and impact of a particular set of parameters for a

distribution. In addition, it is possible to visualize how the binomial distribution approaches the

normal curve as p gets nearer to .50 and as n gets larger for other values of p. It can be useful to

demonstrate this in class along with showing how the graphs of Poisson distributions also

approach the normal curve as gets larger.

In this text (as in most) because of the number of variables used in its computation, only

exact probabilities are determined for hypergeometric distribution. This, combined with the fact

that there are no hypergeometric tables given in the text, makes it cumbersome to determine

cumulative probabilities for the hypergeometric distribution. Thus, the hypergeometric

distribution can be presented as a fall-back position to be used only when the binomial

distribution should not be applied because of the non independence of trials and size of sample.

CHAPTER OUTLINE

5.1

5.2

Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of Discrete Distributions

Mean or Expected Value

Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Distribution

5.3

Binomial Distribution

Solving a Binomial Problem

Using the Binomial Table

Using the Computer to Produce a Binomial Distribution

Mean and Standard Deviation of the Binomial Distribution

Graphing Binomial Distributions

5.4

Poisson Distribution

Working Poisson Problems by Formula

Using the Poisson Tables

Mean and Standard Deviation of a Poisson Distribution

Graphing Poisson Distributions

Using the Computer to Generate Poisson Distributions

Approximating Binomial Problems by the Poisson Distribution

5.5

Hypergeometric Distribution

Using the Computer to Solve for Hypergeometric Distribution

Probabilities

KEY TERMS

Binomial Distribution

Continuous Distributions

Continuous Random Variables

Discrete Distributions

Discrete Random Variables

Hypergeometric Distribution

Lambda ( )

Mean, or Expected Value

Poisson Distribution

Random Variable

P(x)

xP(x)

.238

.238

.290

.580

.177

.531

.158

.632

.137

.685

= [xP(x)] = 2.666

= 1.836444

(x-)2

2.775556

0.443556

0.111556

1.779556

5.447556

(x-)2P(x)

0.6605823

0.1286312

0.0197454

0.2811700

0.7463152

2

2

= [(x-) P(x)] = 1.836444

= 1.355155

5.1

x

1

2

3

4

5

5.2

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

P(x)

.103

.118

.246

.229

.138

.094

.071

.001

xP(x)

.000

.118

.492

.687

.552

.470

.426

.007

= [xP(x)] = 2.752

=

(x-)2

(x-)2P(x)

7.573504

0.780071

3.069504

0.362201

0.565504

0.139114

0.061504

0.014084

1.557504

0.214936

5.053504

0.475029

10.549500

0.749015

18.045500

0.018046

2

2

= [(x-) P(x)] = 2.752496

2.752496

= 1.6591

5.3

x

0

1

2

3

4

P(x)

xP(x)

.461

.000

.285

.285

.129

.258

.087

.261

.038

.152

E(x) = = [xP(x)]= 0.956

=

(x-)2

(x-)2P(x)

0.913936

0.421324

0.001936

0.000552

1.089936

0.140602

4.177936

0.363480

9.265936

0.352106

2

2

= [(x-) P(x)] = 1.278064

1.278064

= 1.1305

5.4

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

5.5

a)

P(x)

.262

.393

.246

.082

.015

.002

.000

xP(x)

.000

.393

.492

.246

.060

.010

.000

= [xP(x)] = 1.201

.96260

=

n=4

P(x=3) =

b)

n=7

p = .10

(x-)2

(x-)2P(x)

1.4424

0.37791

0.0404

0.01588

0.6384

0.15705

3.2364

0.26538

7.8344

0.11752

14.4324

0.02886

23.0304

0.00000

2

2

= [(x-) P(x)] = 0.96260

= .98112

q = .90

p = .80

q = .20

c)

n = 10

p = .60

q = .40

C7(.60)7(.40)3 + 10C8(.60)8(.40)2 + 10C9(.60)9(.40)1 +10C10(.60)10(.40)0 =

10

.2150 + .1209 + .0403 + .0060 = .3822

d)

n = 12

p = .45

q = .55

C5(.45)5(.55)7 + 12C6(.45)6(.55)6 + 12C7(.45)7(.55)5 =

12

.2225 + .2124 + .1489 = .5838

5.6

By Table A.2:

a)

n = 20

p = .50

P(x=12) = .120

b)

n = 20

p = .30

.065 + .031 + .012 + .004 + .001 + .000 = .113

c)

n = 20

p = .70

d)

n = 20

p = .90

.090 + .032 + .009 + .002 + .000 = .133

e)

n = 15

p = .40

P(x=4) + P(x=5) + P(x=6) + P(x=7) + P(x=8) + P(x=9) =

.127 + .186 + .207 + .177 + .118 + .061 = .876

f)

n = 10

p = .60

.215 + .121 + .040 + .006 = .382

5.7

a)

n = 20

p = .70

q = .30

= n p = 20(.70) = 14

=

b)

n p q =

n = 70

20 (. 70 )(. 30 ) =

p = .35

4 .2

= 2.05

q = .65

= n p = 70(.35) = 24.5

=

c)

n p q =

n = 100

70 (. 35 )(. 65 ) = 15 .925

p = .50

= 3.99

q = .50

= n p = 100(.50) = 50

5.8

a)

n=6

b)

n = 20

n p q = 100 (. 50 )(. 50 ) =

p = .70

p = .50

25

= 5

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Prob

.001

.010

.060

.185

.324

.303

.118

Prob

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

.000

.000

.000

.001

.005

.015

.037

.074

.120

.160

.176

.160

.120

.074

.037

.015

.005

.001

.000

.000

.000

5.9

c)

n=8

a)

n = 20

p = .80

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

p = .78

Prob

.000

.000

.001

.009

.046

.147

.294

.336

.168

x = 14

20

b)

n = 20

p = .75

x = 20

20

c)

n = 20

p = .70

x < 12

P(x=0) + P(x=1) + . . . + P(x=11)=

.000 + .000 + .000 + .000 + .000 + .000 + .000 +

.001 + .004 + .012 + .031 + .065 = .113

5.10

n = 16

10

p = .40

x

9

10

11

12

13

Prob

.084

.039

.014

.004

.001

.142

x

3

4

5

6

Prob

.047

.101

.162

.198

.508

n = 13

p = .88

P(x = 13) = 13C13(.88)13(.12)0 = (1)(.1897906171)(1) = .1898

Expected Value = = n p = 13(.88) = 11.44

5.11

n = 25

11

p = .60

a) x > 15

P(x > 15) = P(x = 15) + P(x = 16) + + P(x = 25)

Using Table A.2 n = 25, p = .60

x

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

Prob

.161

.151

.120

.080

.044

.020

.007

.002

.585

b) x > 20

P(x > 20) = P(x = 21) + P(x = 22) + P(x = 23) + P(x = 24) + P(x = 25) =

Using Table A.2 n = 25, p = .60

.007 + .002 + .000 + .000 + .000 = .009

c) P(x < 10)

Using Table A.2 n = 25, p = .60 and x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

x

9

8

7

<6

Prob.

.009

.003

.001

.000

.013

5.12

n = 16

p = .50

12

x > 10

x

11

12

13

14

15

16

For n = 10

p = .87

Prob.

.067

.028

.009

.002

.000

.000

.106

x=6

10

5.13

n = 15

a) P(x = 5) =

p = .20

C5(.20)5(.80)10 = 3003(.00032)(.1073742) = .1032

15

P(x = 10) + P(x = 11) + . . . + P(x = 15) = .000 + .000 + . . . + .000 = .000

c) P(x = 0) =

15

P(x = 4) + P(x = 5) + P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) = .188 + .103 + .043 + .014 = .348

e)

5.14

13

n = 18

a)

p =.30

= 18(.30) = 5.4

p = .34

= 18(.34) = 6.12

P(x > 8)

n = 18

b)

p = .30

x

8

9

10

11

12

c) n = 18

Prob

.081

.039

.015

.005

.001

.141

p = .34

C2(.34)2(.66)16 +

18

C3(.34)3(.66)15 +

18

C4(.34)4(.66)14 =

18

d) n = 18

p = .30

x=0

C0(.30)0(.70)18 = .00163

18

n = 18

p = .34

x=0

C0(.34)0(.66)18 = .00056

18

Since only 30% (compared to 34%) fall in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 category, it is

more likely that none of the CPA financial advisors would fall in this category.

5.15

2 .3 5 e

a) P(x=5 = 2.3) =

5!

2 .3

3 .9 2 e

b) P(x=2 = 3.9) =

2!

( 6 . 34 6

3 .9

14

)3 1( 4 . 0 3 0 ) 2 5 9

= .0538

1 2 0

( 1 . 25 ) 1 (0 . 2

2

0) 2

4 2

= .1539

4 .1 3 e

3!

4 .1

4 .1 2 e

2!

4 .1

4 .1 1 e

1!

4 .1

( 6 . 98 2) (01 . 1

6

( 1 . 86 ) 1 (0 . 1

2

( 4 . 1 ) (0 . 1

1

6) 5 7 3

= .1904

6) 5

6) 5

4 .1 0 e 4 . 1

( 1 ) (0 . 1

=

0 !

1

6) 5

7 3

= .1393

7 3

= .0679

7 3

= .0166

d) P(x=0 = 2.7) =

2 .7 0 e 2 .7

( 1 ) (0 . 6 )7 2 1

= .0672

=

0 !

1

e) P(x=1 = 5.4)=

5 .4 1 e

1!

5 .4

( 5 . 4 ) (0 . 0

1

4 .4 5 e

5!

(1

4 .4

4 )5

1 6 6

= .0244

4 .4 6 e 4 .4

4 .4 7 e

+

6 !

7!

6 . 1 4 6 9 ) 2 (0 .2 1

1 2 0

4 .4

2 ) 7 ( 77 23 . 3 54 1 6 ) 3 (0 .9 1

+

7 2 0

+

5 0 4 0

2) 7

5.16

b) P(x>7 = 2.9):

x

8

9

10

11

12

Prob

.0068

.0022

.0006

.0002

.0000

.0098

x

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Prob

.1852

.1944

.1633

.1143

.0686

.0360

.0168

.7786

e) P(x < 6 = 2.9)=

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Prob

.0550

.1596

.2314

.2237

.1622

.0940

.0455

.9714

x

6

7

8

Prob

.1594

.1298

.0925

.3817

15

5.17 a) = 6.3

mean = 6.3

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Standard deviation =

Prob

.0018

.0116

.0364

.0765

.1205

.1519

.1595

.1435

.1130

.0791

.0498

.0285

.0150

.0073

.0033

.0014

.0005

.0002

.0001

.0000

16

6 .3

= 2.51

b) = 1.3

mean = 1.3

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

17

standard deviation =

Prob

.2725

.3542

.2303

.0998

.0324

.0084

.0018

.0003

.0001

.0000

1.3

= 1.14

c) = 8.9

mean = 8.9

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

18

standard deviation =

Prob

.0001

.0012

.0054

.0160

.0357

.0635

.0941

.1197

.1332

.1317

.1172

.0948

.0703

.0481

.0306

.0182

.0101

.0053

.0026

.0012

.0005

.0002

.0001

8.9

= 2.98

d) = 0.6

mean = 0.6

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

19

standard deviation =

Prob

.5488

.3293

.0988

.0198

.0030

.0004

.0000

0.6

= .775

5.18

20

= 2.84 minutes

a) P(x=6 = 2.8)

from Table A.3 .0407

b) P(x=0 = 2.8) =

from Table A.3 .0608

c) Unable to meet demand if x > 44 minutes:

x

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Prob.

.0872

.0407

.0163

.0057

.0018

.0005

.0001

.1523

Probability of meeting the demand = 1 - (.1523) = .8477

15.23% of the time a second window will need to be opened.

d) = 2.8 arrivals4 minutes

P(x=3) arrivals2 minutes = ??

Lambda must be changed to the same interval ( the size)

New lambda=1.4 arrivals2 minutes

P(x=3) =1.4) = from Table A.3 = .1128

P(x > 58 minutes) = ??

Lambda must be changed to the same interval(twice the size):

New lambda = 5.6 arrivals8 minutes

21

From Table A.3:

5.19

x

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

Prob.

.1697

.1584

.1267

.0887

.0552

.0309

.0157

.0073

.0032

.0013

.0005

.0002

.0001

.6579

Using Table A.3

a) P(x = 0) = .0302

b) P(x > 6) = P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) + . . . =

.0771 + .0385 + .0169 + .0066 + .0023 +

.0007 + .0002 + .0001 = .1424

c) P(x < 4 10 minutes)

Double Lambda to = 7.010 minutes

P(x < 4) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) =

.0009 + .0064 + .0223 + .0521 = .0817

d) P(3 < x < 610 minutes)

= 7.0 10 minutes

P(3 < x < 6) = P(x = 3) + P(x = 4) + P(x = 5) + P(x = 6)

= .0521 + .0912 + .1277 + .1490 = .42

22

e) P(x = 8 15 minutes)

Change Lambda for a 15 minute interval by multiplying the original Lambda by 3.

= 10.5 15 minutes

P(x = 815 minutes) =

5.20

x e

x!

(10 .58 )( e 10 .5 )

8!

= .1009

a) P(x=0 = 5.6):

from Table A.3 = .0037

b) P(x=6 = 5.6):

from Table A.3 = .1584

c) P(x > 15 = 5.6):

x

15

16

17

Prob.

.0005

.0002

.0001

.0008

question the Lambda value as too low for this period. Perhaps the value of

Lambda has changed because of an overall increase in pollution.

5.21

23

a) P(x=0 = 0.6):

from Table A.3 = .5488

b) P(x=1 = 0.6):

from Table A.3 = .3293

c) P(x > 2 = 0.6):

from Table A.3

x

2

3

4

5

6

Prob.

.0988

.0198

.0030

.0004

.0000

.1220

The interval length has been increased (3 times)

New Lambda = = 1.8 trips3 years

P(x < 3 = 1.8):

from Table A.3

x

0

1

2

3

e) P(x=46 years):

The interval has been increased (6 times)

New Lambda = = 3.6 trips6 years

P(x=4 = 3.6):

from Table A.3 = .1912

Prob.

.1653

.2975

.2678

.1607

.8913

5.22

24

a) P(x=0 = 1.2):

from Table A.3 = .3012

b) P(x=22 months):

The interval has been decreased (by )

New Lambda = = 0.6 collisions2 months

P(x=2 = 0.6):

from Table A.3 = .0988

c) P(x < 1 collision6 months):

The interval length has been increased (by 1.5)

New Lambda = = 1.8 collisions6 months

P(x < 1 = 1.8):

from Table A.3

x

0

1

Prob.

.1653

.2975

.4628

The result is likely to happen almost half the time (46.26%). Ship channel and

weather conditions are about normal for this period. Safety awareness is

about normal for this period. There is no compelling reason to reject the

lambda value of 0.6 collisions per 4 months based on an outcome of 0 or 1

collisions per 6 months.

5.23

25

= 1.2 penscarton

a) P(x=0 = 1.2):

from Table A.3 = .3012

b) P(x > 8 = 1.2):

from Table A.3 = .0000

c) P(x > 3 = 1.2):

from Table A.3

x

4

5

6

7

8

Prob.

.0260

.0062

.0012

.0002

.0000

.0336

5.24

n = 100,000

26

p = .00004

= = n p = 100,000(.00004) = 4.0

Since n > 20 and n p < 7, the Poisson approximation to this binomial problem is

close enough.

P(x > 7 = 4):

Using Table A.3

x

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Prob.

.0595

.0298

.0132

.0053

.0019

.0006

.0002

.0001

.1106

x

11

12

13

14

Prob.

.0019

.0006

.0002

.0001

.0028

Using Table A.3

Since getting more than 10 is a rare occurrence, this particular geographic region

appears to have a higher average rate than other regions. An investigation of

particular characteristics of this region might be warranted.

5.25

p = .009

27

n = 200

= n p = 200(.009) = 1.8

a) P(x > 6) from Table A.3 =

P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) + P(x = 8) + P(x = 9) + . . . =

.0078 + .0020 + .0005 + .0001 = .0104

b) P(x > 10) = .0000

c) P(x = 0) = .1653

d) P(x < 5) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P( x = 3) + P(x = 4) =

.1653 + .2975 + .2678 + .1607 + .0723 = .9636

5.26

If 99% see a doctor, then 1% do not see a doctor. Thus, p = .01 for this problem.

n = 300,

p = .01,

= n(p) = 300(.01) = 3

a) P(x = 5):

Using = 3 and Table A.3 = .1008

b) P(x < 4) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) =

.0498 + .1494 + .2240 + .2240 = .6472

c) The expected number = = = 3

5.27

28

a) P(x = 3 N = 11, A = 8, n = 4)

8

C 3 3 C1 (56 )(3)

=

= .5091

330

11 C 4

P(x = 1) + P (x = 0) =

5

C1 10 C 5

+

15 C 6

C 0 10 C 6

(5)( 252 ) (1)( 210 )

+

=

5005

5005

15 C 6

c) P(x=0 N = 9, A = 2, n = 3)

2

C 0 7 C 3 (1)(35)

=

= .4167

84

9 C3

P(x = 5) + P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) =

5

C5 15 C 2

+

20 C 7

C 6 15 C1

+

20 C 7

C 7 15 C 0

=

20 C 7

(1)(105 )

+ 5C6 (impossible) + 5C7(impossible) = .0014

77520

5.28

N = 19 n = 6

a) P(x = 1 private)

11

A = 11

C1 8 C 5

(11)( 56 )

=

= .0227

27 ,132

19 C 6

b) P(x = 4 private)

11

C 4 8 C 2

(330 )( 28 )

=

= .3406

27 ,132

19 C 6

c) P(x = 6 private)

11

C 6 8 C 0

(462 )(1)

=

= .0170

27 ,132

19 C 6

d) P(x = 0 private)

11

C 0 8 C 6

(1)( 28 )

=

= .0010

27 ,132

19 C 6

29

5.29

N = 17

A=8

8

a) P(x = 0) =

b) P(x = 4) =

n=4

C 0 9 C 4

(1)(126 )

=

= .0529

C

2380

17 4

C 4 9 C 0

(70 )(1)

=

= .0294

2380

17 C 4

5.30

N = 20

30

A = 16 white

a) P(x = 4 white) =

b) P(x = 4 red) =

16

C 2 8 C 2

(36 )( 28 )

=

= .4235

2380

17 C 4

N - A = 4 red

n=5

C 4 4 C1

(1820 )( 4)

=

15504

20 C 5

= .4696

C 4 16 C1

(1)(16 )

=

= .0010

15504

20 C 5

C 5 16 C 0

= .0000 because 4C5 is impossible to determine

20 C 5

The participant cannot draw 5 red beads if there are only 4 to draw from.

c) P(x = 5 red) =

5.31

N = 10

31

n=4

a) A = 3 x = 2

3

P(x = 2) =

C 2 7 C 2 (3)( 21)

=

= .30

210

10 C 4

b) A = 5 x = 0

P(x = 0) =

C 0 5 C 4 (1)(5)

=

= .0238

210

10 C 4

c) A = 5 x = 3

P(x = 3) =

5.32

N = 16

a) P(x = 0) =

C 3 5 C1 (10 )(5)

=

= .2381

210

10 C 4

A = 4 defective

4

n=3

C 0 12 C 3 (1)( 220 )

=

= .3929

560

16 C 3

C 3 12 C 0 ( 4)(1)

=

= .0071

560

16 C 3

4 C 2 12 C1

c) P(x > 2) = P(x=2) + P(x=3) =

+ .0071 (from part b.) =

16 C 3

(6)(12 )

560

+ .0071 = .1286 + .0071 = .1357

b) P(x = 3) =

4

C1 12 C 2

( 4)( 66 )

+ .3929 (from part a.) =

+ .3929 = .4714 + .3929 = .8643

560

16 C 3

5.33

N = 18

A = 11 Hispanic

32

n=5

11

C1 7 C 4

+

18 C 5

11

C 0 7 C 5

=

18 C 5

(11 )( 35 ) (1)( 21 )

+

= .0449 + .0025 = .0474

8568

8568

It is fairly unlikely that these results occur by chance. A researcher might want to

further investigate this result to determine causes. Were officers selected based on

leadership, years of service, dedication, prejudice, or some other reason?

5.34

C4(.23)4(.77)7 = 330(.0028)(.1605) = .1482

11

1 - P(x < 1) = 1 - P(x = 0) =

1 [6C0(.50)0(.50)6] = 1 [(1)(1)(.0156)] = .9844

c) P(x > 7 n = 9 and p = .85) = P(x = 8) + P(x = 9) =

C8(.85)8(.15)1 + 9C9(.85)9(.15)0 =

d) P(x < 3 n = 14 and p = .70) =

P(x = 3) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 0) =

C3(.70)3(.30)11 + 14C2(.70)2(.30)12 +

14

C1(.70)1(.30)13 + 14C0(.70)0(.30)14 =

14

(364)(.3430)(.00000177) + (91)(.49)(.000000531)=

(14)(.70)(.00000016) + (1)(1)(.000000048) =

.0002 + .0000 + .0000 + .0000 = .0002

5.35

33

b) P(x < 5 n = 10 and p =.30) =

P(x = 4) + P(x = 3) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 1) + P(x=0) =

x

0

1

2

3

4

Prob.

.028

.121

.233

.267

.200

.849

P(x = 12) + P(x = 13) + P(x = 14) + P(x = 15)

x

12

13

14

15

Prob.

.063

.022

.005

.000

.090

P(x = 23) + P(x = 24) + P(x=25) =

x

21

22

23

24

25

Prob.

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

34

5.36

a) P(x = 4 = 1.25)

( 1 .2

5) e( 1 . 2 )5 ( 2 . 4

=

4!

4 ) 1 (2 .4 8 ) 6 5

= .0291

2 4

( 6 . 3 ) 71 ( e

1!

6 .3

( 6 .3

7 ) e( 6 . 3 7) ( 6 . 3 ) 7 (0 . 0 ) 1 ( 71 ) (0 . 0 ) 1

=

+

0 !

1

1

c) P(x > 5 = 2.4) = P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) + ... =

( 2 . 4 6 ) e( 2 . 4 ) ( 2 . 4 7 ) e( 2 . 4 ) ( 2 . 4 8 ) e( 2 . 4 ) ( 2 . 4 9 ) e( 2 . 4 ) ( 2 . 4 1 0) e( 2 . 4 )

+

+

+

+

+

6 !

7!

8 !

9!

1 0 !

.0241 + .0083 + .0025 + .0007 + .0002 = .0358

for values x > 11 the probabilities are each .0000 when rounded off to 4

decimal places.

5.37

35

b) P(x < 5 = 3.3) =

P(x = 4) + P(x = 3) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 0) =

x

0

1

2

3

4

Prob.

.0369

.1217

.2008

.2209

.1823

.7626

x

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Prob.

.1890

.0992

.0417

.0146

.0044

.0011

.0003

.0001

.0000

.3504

P(x=3) + P(x=4) + P(x=5) =

x

3

4

5

Prob.

.1852

.1944

.1633

.5429

5.38

a) P(x = 3N = 6, n = 4, A = 5) =

36

C 3 1 C1 (10 )(1)

=

= .6667

15

6 C4

P(x = 1) + P(x = 0) =

C1 5 C 2

+

10 C 3

C 0 5 C3

(5)(10 ) (1)(10 )

+

=

120

120

10 C 3

c) P(x > 2 N = 13, n = 5, A = 3):

P(x=2) + P(x=3) Note: only 3 x's in population

3

5.39

C 2 10 C 3

+

13 C 5

C 3 10 C 2

(3)(120 ) (1)( 45 )

+

=

= .2797 + .0350 = .3147

C

1287

1287

13

5

n = 25 p = .20 retired

from Table A.2: P(x = 7) = .111

P(x > 10): P(x = 10) + P(x = 11) + . . . + P(x = 25) = .012 + .004 + .001 = .017

Expected Value = = n p = 25(.20) = 5

n = 20 p = .40 mutual funds

P(x = 8) = .180

P(x < 6) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + . . . + P(x = 5) =

.000 + .000 + .003 +.012 + .035 + .075 = .125

P(x = 0) = .000

P(x > 12) = P(x = 12) + P(x = 13) + . . . + P(x = 20) = .035 + .015 + .005 + .001 = .056

x=8

Expected Number = = n p = 20(.40) = 8

5.40

37

a)

The interval has been decreased by .

The new = 1.6 cars1 hour.

P(x = 3 = 1.6) = (from Table A.3) .1378

The interval has been decreased by the original amount.

The new = 0.8 cars hour.

P(x = 0 = 0.8) = (from Table A.3) .4493

c) P(x > 5 = 1.6) = (from Table A.3)

x

5

6

7

8

Prob.

.0176

.0047

.0011

.0002

.0236

Either a rare event occurred or perhaps the long-run average, , has changed

(increased).

5.41

N = 32

A = 10

a) P(x = 3) =

10

b) P(x = 6) =

10

c) P(x = 0) =

10

38

n = 12

C 3 22 C 9

(120 )( 497 ,420 )

=

= .2644

225 ,792 ,840

32 C12

C 6 22 C 6

( 210 )( 74 ,613 )

=

= .0694

225 ,792 ,840

32 C12

C 0 22 C12

(1)( 646 ,646 )

=

= .0029

225 ,792 ,840

32 C12

d) A = 22

P(7 < x < 9) =

22

C 7 10 C 5

+

32 C12

22

C8 10 C 4

+

32 C12

22

C 9 10 C 3

32 C12

+

+

225 ,792 ,840

225 ,792 ,840

225 ,792 ,840

5.42

x

0

1

2

3

Prob.

.2466

.3452

.2417

.1128

.9463

5.43

39

a) n = 20 and p = .25

The expected number = = n p = (20)(.25) = 5.00

b) P(x < 1n = 20 and p = .25) =

P(x = 1) + P(x = 0) =

C1(.25)1(.75)19 + 20C0(.25)0(.75)20

20

Since the probability is so low, the population of your state may have a lower

percentage of chronic heart conditions than those of other states.

5.44

x

8

9

10

Prob.

.233

.121

.028

.382

b) n = 15 p = 1/3

C0(1/3)0(2/3)15 = .0023

15

c) n = 7

p = .53

Probably the 53% figure is too low for this population since the probability of

this occurrence is so low (.0117).

5.45

40

n = 12

a.) P(x = 0 long hours):

C0(.20)0(.80)12 = .0687

p = .20

12

p = .20

Using Table A.2: .016 + .003 + .001 = .020

c) P(x = 5 good financing):

p = .25,

C5(.25)5(.75)7 = .1032

12

5.46

n = 100,000

p = .000014

Worked as a Poisson:

= n p = 100,000(.000014) = 1.4

a) P(x = 5):

from Table A.3 = .0111

b) P(x = 0):

from Table A.3 = .2466

c) P(x > 6):

x

7

8

Prob

.0005

.0001

.0006

5.47

41

x

0

1

2

3

Prob.

.001

.008

.041

.124

.174

17.4% of the time in a sample of eight, three or fewer customers are walk-ins by

chance. Other reasons for such a low number of walk-ins might be that she is

retaining more old customers than before or perhaps a new competitor is

attracting walk-ins away from her.

5.48

n = 25

p = .20

.062

x

11

12

13

Prob.

.004

.001

.000

.005

c) Since such a result would only occur 0.5% of the time by chance, it is likely

that the analyst's list was not representative of the entire state of Idaho or the

20% figure for the Idaho census is not correct.

5.49

42

P(x = 0 = 0.6) = (from Table A.3) .5488

P(x > 3 = 0.6) = (from Table A.3)

x

3

4

5

Prob.

.0198

.0030

.0004

.0232

Assume one trip is independent of the other. Let F = flat tire and NF = no flat tire

P(NF1 _ NF2) = P(NF1) P(NF2)

but P(NF) = .5488

P(NF1 _ NF2) = (.5488)(.5488) = .3012

5.50

N = 25

n=8

a) P(x = 1 in NY)

4

A=4

C1 21 C 7

( 4)(116 ,280 )

=

= .4300

1,081 ,575

25 C 8

10

A = 10

C 4 15 C 4 (210 (1365 )

=

= .2650

1,081,575

25 C 8

c) P(x = 0 in California)

5

C 0 20 C 8 (1)(125 ,970 )

=

= .1165

1,081,575

25 C 8

d) P(x = 3 with M)

3

5.51

A=5

A=3

C 3 22 C 5

(1)( 26 ,334 )

=

= .0243

1,081,575

25 C 8

N = 24

n=6

A=8

a) P(x = 6) =

b) P(x = 0) =

43

C 6 16 C 0

(28)(1)

=

= .0002

134 ,596

24 C 6

8

C 0 16 C 6 (1)(8008 )

=

= .0595

134 ,596

24 C 6

d) A = 16 East Side

P(x = 3) =

5.52

n = 25 p = .20

16

C 3 8 C 3 (560 )(56)

=

= .2330

134 ,596

24 C 6

= 25(.20) = 5

n p q =

25 (. 20 )(. 80 )

= 2

x Prob

13 .0000

The values for x > 12 are so far away from the expected value that they are very

unlikely to occur.

P(x = 14) = 25C14(.20)14(.80)11 = .000063 which is very unlikely.

If this value (x = 14) actually occurred, one would doubt the validity of the

p = .20 figure or one would have experienced a very rare event.

5.53

44

a) P(x = 0 = 2.4) = (from Table A.3) .0907

b) Can handle x < 5 calls

x

6

7

8

9

10

11

The interval has been increased 2 times.

New Lambda: = 4.8 calls2 minutes.

from Table A.3: .1517

d) P(x < 1 calls15 seconds):

The interval has been decreased by .

New Lambda = = 0.6 calls15 seconds.

P(x < 1 = 0.6) = (from Table A.3)

P(x = 1) =

P(x = 0) =

.3293

.5488

.8781

Prob.

.0241

.0083

.0025

.0007

.0002

.0000

.0358

5.54

n = 160

45

p = .01

a) Expected number = = n(p) = 160(.01) = 1.6

b) P(x > 8):

Using Table A.3:

x

8

9

Prob.

.0002

.0000

.0002

x

2

3

4

5

6

Prob.

.2584

.1378

.0551

.0176

.0047

.4736

Using Table A.3:

5.55

p = .005

n = 1,000

= n p = (1,000)(.005) = 5

a) P(x < 4) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) =

.0067 + .0337 + .0842 + .1404 = .265

b) P(x > 10) = P(x = 11) + P(x = 12) + . . . =

.0082 + .0034 + .0013 + .0005 + .0002 = .0136

c) P(x = 0) = .0067

5.56

n=8

p = .36

46

x = 0 women

It is unlikely that a company would randomly hire 8 physicians from the U.S. pool

and none of them would be female. If this actually happened, figures similar to these

might be used as evidence in a lawsuit.

5.57

N = 34

a) n = 5

13

x=3

A = 13

C 3 21 C 2 (286 )( 210 )

=

= .2158

278 ,256

34 C 5

b) n = 8 x < 2

5

C 0 29 C8

+

34 C 8

A=5

5

C1 29 C 7

+

34 C 8

C 2 29 C 6

=

34 C 8

+

+

= .2364 + .4298 + .2616 = .9278

18 ,156 ,204

18 ,156 ,204

18 ,156 ,204

c) n = 5

x=2

A=3

5.58

47

N = 14 n = 4

a) P(x = 4N = 14, n = 4, A = 10 north side)

10

C 4 4 C 0 ( 210 ((1)

=

= .2098

1001

14 C 4

4

C 4 10 C 0

(1)(1)

=

= .0010

1001

14 C 4

4

5.59

C 2 10 C 2 (6)( 45)

=

= .2697

1001

14 C 4

a) = 3.841,000

P(x = 0) =

3.84 0 e 3.84

0!

= .0215

b) = 7.682,000

7.68 6 e 7.68

(205 ,195 .258 )(. 000461975 )

=

P(x = 6) =

= .1317

6!

720

from Table A.3:

P(x < 7) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + . . . + P(x = 6) =

.0082 + .0395 + .0948 + .1517 + .1820 + .1747 + .1398 = .7907

5.60

48

= n p = 15(.36) = 5.4

=

15 (. 36 )(. 64 )

= 1.86

The most likely values are near the mean, 5.4. Note from the printout that the

most probable values are at x = 5 and x = 6 which are near the mean.

5.61

This printout contains the probabilities for various values of x from zero to eleven from a

Poisson distribution with = 2.78. Note that the highest probabilities are at x = 2 and

x = 3 which are near the mean. The probability is slightly higher at x = 2 than at x = 3

even though x = 3 is nearer to the mean because of the piling up effect of x = 0.

5.62

The mean is n p = 22(.64) = 14.08 and the standard deviation is:

n p q =

22 (. 64 )(. 36 )

= 2.25

and x = 13 which are nearest to the mean.

5.63

This is the graph of a Poisson Distribution with = 1.784. Note the high

probabilities at x = 1 and x = 2 which are nearest to the mean. Note also that the

probabilities for values of x > 8 are near to zero because they are so far away

from the mean or expected value.

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