UK Forecast

Forecasts for the UK economy:
a comparison of independent forecasts
compiled by the Macroeconomic Prospects Team

hm-treasury.gov.uk/forecasts
No. 295
November 2011
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ISBN 978-1-84532-913-6
PU797
CONTENTS
Medium-term forecasts, November 2011
Page
Summary Page: Short-term forecasts
Table 1 - 2011: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)
Table 2 - 2011: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)
Table 3 - 2011: Growth in other selected variables (% change)
Average of independent forecasts for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment
Average of independent forecasts for 2011; Current account and PSNB (2011-12)
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; Current account and PSNB (2012-13)
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in last 3 months
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2011-12) made in last 3 months
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in last 3 months
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2012-13) made in last 3 months
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Summary Page: Medium-term Forecasts

Table M1: Medium-term forecasts for GDP and the GDP deflator
Table M2: Medium-term forecasts for domestic demand and net trade contribution
Table M3: Medium-term forecasts for CPI and RPI inflation
Table M4: Medium-term forecasts for the sterling index and official Bank rate
Table M5: Medium-term forecasts for claimant unemployment
Table M6: Medium-term forecasts for house price inflation
Table M7: Medium-term forecasts for the current account
Table M8: Medium-term forecasts for PSNB
Table M9: Medium-term forecasts for the output gap
Average of medium-term forecasts for GDP growth, CPI inflation and claimant unemployment
Average of medium-term forecasts for the current account and PSNB
18
Annex 1:
Annex 2:
Annex 3:
Annex 4:
Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables

Data definitions
Notation used in tables
Organisation contact details
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Please note that Forecasts for the UK economy is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves
and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasurys own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to
review. No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no
responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
The averages and ranges in this document may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium providing that it is reproduced accurately
and not used in a misleading context. The data remain the copyright of those organisations providing it - permission to reproduce it must be
sought from both HM Treasury and the providers of the original data.
Users should note that the Treasury crest (which incorporates the Royal Coat of Arms) may not be used or reproduced for any
purpose without specific permission. Permission to use or reproduce the Treasury crest should be sought from HM Treasury.
Forecasts for the UK economy is compiled and coordinated by Mohammad Jamei. Please direct enquiries on the content of this
issue to Mohammad Jamei (020 7270 5404, Mohammad.Jamei@hmtreasury.gsi.gov.uk).
The next edition will be published on 21st December 2011. It will also be available on the Treasurys website:
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/forecasts.
PU797 ISBN 978-1-84532-913-6
FORECASTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY

A comparison of independent forecasts, November 2011
This edition of the comparison contains 21 new forecasts, all of which were received between November 1st and
November 11th 2011. The tables below summarise the average and range of independent forecasts for 2011 and
2012 and show the average of this months new forecasts.
Forecasts for 2011
Independent+
November
October
Lowest
Highest
Average of
new*
forecasts
1.0
1.0
0.6
1.6
1.0
- CPI
4.7
4.6
4.2
5.0
4.8
- RPI
5.3
5.3
4.8
5.7
5.4
Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn)
1.62
1.61
1.51
1.76
1.62
Current account (bn)
-22.4
-32.4
-62.9
-3.3
-18.2
PSNB (2011-12: bn)
128.0
128.1
110.0
146.0
127.8
Averages
GDP growth (per cent)
November
Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)
Forecasts for 2012

Independent+
N
November
b
O
October
b
L
Lowest
Hi h
Highest
Average of
new*
forecasts
1.2
1.5
-0.4
2.3
1.0
- CPI
2.2
2.2
0.7
3.4
2.2
- RPI
2.8
2.9
0.8
4.0
2.7
Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn)
1.70
1.65
1.40
1.98
1.74
-17.7
-25.6
-43.2
27.5
-14.5
PSNB (2012-13: bn)
112.8
110.7
85.0
146.4
112.1
Averages
November
Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)
+ Independent averages, and the range of forecasts, are based on forecasts made in the last three months
(November: 21 institutions, October: 7 institutions, September: 3 institutions).
*Calculated from new forecasts received for the comparison this month.
Note: All the averages given are the mean and exclude non-standard entries except for house-price inflation (see
notation).
Forecasts for the UK economy
November 2011
1.0
1.0
0.9
-1.0
-1.1
-1.1
1.6
0.6
0.9
1.7
Output Gap (as % of
-1.2
-0.6
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
-0.1
-0.6
-1.2
-0.8
-1.0
1.5 c
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
0.2
-
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-
-0.9
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
0.6
-0.1
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
0.4
-
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.5
4.4
5.2
4.2
5.4
5.1
5.6
4.9
4.9
5.1
8.0
-
3.0
1.4
0.6
0.1
0.3
1.5
0.1
2.1
0.4
0.7
-0.2
0.2
0.2
4.0
-
1.5
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.9
-
-1.5
-1.6
-4.0
-
1.5
1.7
1.7
-0.9
-1.0
-1.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
5.3
5.1
5.1
0.7
0.4
0.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
-1.7
-1.7
-2.3
-0.1
-1.8
-1.1
3.7
0.2
1.6
4.0
-2.6
-1.2
0.2
-0.4
-0.2
0.6
-1.3
-0.6
7.5
4.2
5.2
3.7
-0.3
0.4
1.7
0.4
1.4
-0.5
-2.3
-1.8
0.6
0.8
2.3
0.2
1.1
7.9
5.0
0.7
-3.9
potential GDP)
-0.7
-1.2
-1.3
-1.5
-2.3
4.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.9
-1.1
5.4 d
-1.8
-1.4
-1.6
1.7
-
GDP)
-2.3
-3.2
-3.7 k
-3.2
-2.3
-0.5
-2.0
-
contribution (% of
1.6
1.6
0.4
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.5
0.9
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.7
1.5
0.6
1.2
Net trade
-0.1
-0.1
0.7
0.3
1.9
1.2
0.2
-0.2
0.8
1.5
5.5
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.8
-0.3
-0.3
3.7
2.6
GDP)
5.3
4.5
5.7
4.8
7.9
4.9
5.4
4.2
5.9
7.2
9.7
5.8
5.1
5.0
5.6
5.4
4.9
6.4
7.5
contribution (% of
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.7
0.9
-0.7
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-1.3
-0.8
0.5
-0.1
Fixed investment
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.5
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
0.2
0.1
consumption
1.5
-1.7
-1.5
-2.6
-1.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-1.1
-1.3
1.9
3.5
-1.4
-1.8
-1.3
-0.9
-1.2
-1.2
1.5
0.3
Government
Total imports
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.6
1.6
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.5
0.9
0.9
0.7
1.4 ^
1.1
Total exports
-1.0
-1.2
-1.5
-1.1
-1.3
-0.7
-0.6
-1.0
-0.8
-1.4
-0.9
0.1
-1.3
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.8
-1.4
-0.1
-0.6
Domestic demand
1.3
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.1
Change in inventories
Private consumption
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
GDP
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
Daiwa Capital Markets
Deutsche Bank
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
ING Financial Markets
J P Morgan
Lombard Street
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
RBS Global Banking & Markets
Schroders Investment Management
Scotia Capital
Societe Generale
Standard Chartered Bank
UBS
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Jul
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Sep
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
0.4
1.7
1.5
2.3
2.2
0.1
0.8
1.7
1.8
1.6
0.3
0.8
1.4
1.6
2.0
3.7
1.4
2.0
0.3
0.4
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce
Beacon Economic Forecasting
Cambridge Econometrics
CBI
CEBR
Economic Perspectives
Experian Business Strategies
EIU
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
Liverpool Macro Research
NIESR
Oxford Economics
EC
OECD
IMF
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jun
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
0.2
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
0.4
0.7
1.4
1.4
1.7
-2.9 m
1.7
1.6
1.5
0.2
-
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months

Independent
New (marked *)
City
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest
Lowest
Median
OBR
Mar
^ OECD growth forecast is from the May 2011 OECD Economic Outlook. The OECD's Spetember 2011 Interim Economic Outlook forecast is for GDP growth of 0.9 per cent in
2011.
November 2011
Average earnings
4.5
4.8
5.0
4.8
4.9
4.0
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.9
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.2
4.7
5.0
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.5
5.2
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.0
5.4
5.7
5.4
5.6
5.4
4.6
5.2
5.5
4.4
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.2
5.5
2.4
0.8
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.0
3.0
2.7
2.2
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.3
2.8
2.7
2.3
2.1
82.6
78.0
79.6
78.5
78.5
81.0 g
79.6
80.0
-
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
100.0
113.5
109.1
110.0
112.0
111.0
115.0
110.0
112.0
108.0
113.0
-
-1.0
-0.9
2.6
-0.7
9.6 k
1.0
2.8
-
4.6
4.6
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.2
3.9
4.5 h
5.4
4.9
5.5
4.8
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.0
5.7
5.0
-
5.5
5.2
5.5
5.0
5.3
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.1
5.2
-
2.7
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
-3.0
5.4
1.1 j
1.3
2.0
-
79.5
79.6
-2.0 w
75.0
80.2
78.0
79.6
79.4
80.5 k
81.0
-
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.90
0.50
0.50
-
105.0
110.9
111.7
105.0
95.0
107.9
108.5
110.9
108.7 n
110.2
111.1
80.0
-
2.2
3.0
-1.1
-1.6
-
4.7
4.8
4.8
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.5
2.3
2.5
2.4
79.3
79.2
79.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
109.0
109.2
110.1
0.1
0.0
-0.4
5.0
4.2
4.7
5.7
4.8
5.4
5.7
5.0
5.4
5.4
-3.0
2.5
82.6
75.0
79.6
0.90
0.50
0.50
115.0
95.0
110.5
3.0
-1.6
-0.8
3.9
4.7
3.9
2.0
81.1
M4
RPIX (Q4)
Oil price (Brent, $/bbl)
RPI (Q4)
Official Bank rate

(Q4, %)
CPI (Q4)
Sterling index (Q4)

(Jan 2005=100)
City forecasters
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
Deutsche Bank
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
J P Morgan
Lombard Street
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Scotia Capital
Societe Generale
UBS
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Jul
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Sep
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
CBI
CEBR
EIU
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
EC
OECD
IMF
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jun
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*

Independent
New (marked *)
City
Highest
Lowest
Median
OBR
Mar
November 2011
113.0 i
PSNB (bn 2011-12)
(bn)
Size of APF purchases
and services
World trade in goods
Manufacturing output
(Q4,millions)
unemployment
Claimant
Employment growth
disposable income
Real household
(Q4)
House price inflation
City forecasters
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
Deutsche Bank
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
J P Morgan
Lombard Street
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Scotia Capital
Societe Generale
UBS
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Jul
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Sep
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
-2.0
-2.0
-2.6
-1.1
-2.6
-1.0
-1.5
-0.5
-1.0
-0.5
-
0.7
0.5
0.3
-0.3
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.5
-0.2
0.6
0.4
0.4
-
1.60
1.54
1.60
1.66
1.63
1.55
1.63
1.51
1.60
1.66
1.67
1.67
1.60
1.52
3.1
2.7
2.8
2.2
2.8
3.1
2.9
3.0
2.2
2.4
2.1
3.8
2.1
2.8
2.4
6.0
5.8
-
-27.0
-10.5
-20.0
-3.3
-24.5
-33.0
-38.4
-4.3
-27.3
-29.0
-22.4
-29.6
-11.2
-17.0
-14.0
-29.9
200.0
275.0
275.0
200.0
275.0
200.0
250.0
275.0
200.0
275.0
275.0
245.0
275.0
250.0
200.0
-
125.0
127.6
130.0 s
133.2
132.0
132.0
125.0
121.0
122.0
126.0
118.0
125.0
128.3
125.0
126.0
128.0
125.0
110.0
-2.0
-1.6
-1.5
-2.2
-2.0
-2.5
-1.8
-1.9
-
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
-0.4
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.5
-0.2
0.9
-
1.65
1.62
1.64
1.60
1.60
1.76
1.66
1.65
1.53
2.54
1.64
7.90
8.10
7.80
2.5
2.5
3.0
2.8
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.6
2.3
3.0
3.1
-
4.5 o
6.6
7.0
7.6
7.0
7.4
7.5
-34.0
-22.3
-10.3
-26.0
-62.9
-24.2
-16.2
-38.3
-18.0
-18.5
-14.5
-2.5 a
-1.5 a
-2.7 a
275.0
275.0
275.0
200.0
275.0
275.0
-
126.9
132.9
129.5
146.0
132.0
129.2
129.0
129.5
128.6
120.2
141.6
125.2
8.6 a
8.7 ah
- ah
-0.9
-1.2
-0.9
-1.7
-1.7
-1.5
0.2
0.3
0.2
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
6.9
6.6
5.9
-22.4
-18.2
-18.1
258.1
255.8
259.4
128.0
127.8
126.6
1.3
-4.5
-0.9
-0.5
-2.6
-1.8
0.9
-0.4
0.4
1.76
1.51
1.63
3.8
2.1
2.6
7.6
5.8
7.0
-3.3
-62.9
-20.0
275.0
200.0
275.0
146.0
110.0
128.0
-2.3 hz
-0.4
-0.1
1.56
6.9
-41
122
0.6
-2.0
-1.2
1.3
-3.1
-1.0
-4.5
-2.5
-0.1
-2.3
0.6
-0.7
-
y
y
xy
y
z
xy
x
k
z
x
y
x
CBI
CEBR
EIU
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
EC
OECD
IMF
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jun
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
0.5
0.7
-0.7
-0.9
-2.0
-0.9
-2.1
-1.0
-0.7
-
x
z
z
k
x
z
x
hz
z
hp
hq
hq
hq

Independent
New (marked *)
City
Highest
Lowest
Median
OBR
Mar
November 2011
0.5
3.0
0.9
0.0
0.7
0.5
1.1
0.4
0.9
0.7
2.2 c
0.7
0.5
-0.5
1.1
-
-0.9
-0.9
-1.2
-1.1
-0.2
-1.2
-1.7
-1.0
-1.2
-1.0
-2.8 m
-0.9
-1.0
-1.0
-0.7
-
1.8
6.2
3.8
3.2
0.4
9.2
1.7
2.5
4.5
5.1
6.5 d
-4.9
3.0
1.1
4.2
-
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.4
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
2.3
-0.4
1.2
3.0
-1.5
0.5
2.5
1.3
Output Gap (as % of
1.6
2.3
1.5
1.2
0.7
2.0
1.1
0.7
0.8
1.5
2.2
0.8
1.0
0.6
1.8
1.6
Net trade contribution
5.6
5.1
3.0
-2.1
3.0
5.5
2.0
2.1
4.5
4.7
8.2
6.1
2.6
3.7
2.8
1.5
4.5
1.1
4.5
4.0
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
-
0.4
2.9
0.9
0.4
0.6
1.5
0.6
0.4
0.8
1.0
-0.5
0.8
-0.4
1.2
-
3.0
8.4
5.2
4.3
2.4
2.0
3.5
2.9
2.2
5.4
1.7
3.3
3.4
6.1
-
1.5
9.9
3.4
1.7
2.0
1.1
1.7
1.5
2.1
4.1
-2.4
2.5
0.5
3.7
-
0.9
-0.6
0.5
0.8
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.4
1.3
0.2
0.9
0.6
-
-1.3
-1.5
-3.4
-
2.9
2.7
2.7
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.6
3.4
2.7
3.0
2.1
1.4
1.8
0.4
0.4
0.4
-1.9
-1.8
-2.4
3.2
-1.7
-1.0
9.2
-4.9
3.0
0.5
-0.3
0.1
2.9
-0.5
0.6
8.4
-3.3
2.9
9.9
-2.4
1.7
1.3
-0.6
0.4
-1.0
-2.7
-1.8
-1.2
6.0
0.0
1.5
6.5
2.9
1.0
-3.6
potential GDP)
-2.7
-3.7
-3.0 k
-2.8
-2.1
-1.0
-2.7
-
(% of GDP)
0.7
0.4
0.1
1.0
0.3
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.9
0.9
0.0
0.3
-0.3
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.2
GDP)
0.6
-1.0
1.9
1.7
3.6
1.2
1.1
1.6
6.5
4.0
2.4
2.1
3.7
1.9
-2.1
0.4
0.5
4.8
5.8
contribution (% of
2.1
0.0
5.1
2.8
6.7
2.8
2.0
1.4
7.2
6.5
5.6
5.0
3.9
2.9
-3.3
2.3
2.7
6.2
6.9
Fixed investment
1.0
-0.4
-0.3
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.0
1.4
0.6
1.4
0.3
1.5
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.6
1.3
consumption
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.1
Government
Total imports
-1.3
-0.9
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
-2.0
-1.2
0.1
-0.8
-1.6
-1.0
-1.0
-1.6
-1.0
-0.2
3.2
-0.8
-0.3
-1.1
-1.1
Total exports
1.4
0.5
-1.5
0.1
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.2
0.0
1.5
1.4
0.4
1.4
0.4
0.1
-0.5
-0.5
1.6
1.4
Domestic demand
2.3
1.5
0.0
0.7
1.2
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.3
0.8
2.4
2.3
1.1
1.5
1.0
-0.4
0.7
0.7
1.9
1.5
Private consumption
GDP
City forecasters
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
Deutsche Bank
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
J P Morgan
Lombard Street
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Scotia Capital
Societe Generale
UBS
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Jul
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Sep
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
CBI
CEBR
EIU
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
EC
OECD
IMF
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jun
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*

Independent
New (marked *)
City
Highest
Lowest
Median
OBR
Mar
November 2011
Average earnings
2.0
2.3
1.7
2.4
2.2
1.8
2.5
1.7
1.9
1.3
2.9
1.6
2.6
2.3
2.6
0.7
2.1
1.7
1.7
2.6
3.3
3.3
2.1
3.4
2.6
3.2
3.2
2.8
2.9
2.3
4.0
2.4
3.3
3.0
3.1
0.8
3.4
1.8
3.3
3.9
2.3
3.5
2.5
2.8
2.6
2.0
2.4
3.3
3.1
3.1
1.1
3.3
1.8
3.0
2.8
2.7
1.5
2.2
2.4
3.0
3.6
2.8
2.4
3.0
3.5
2.9
3.7
3.5
2.5
2.0
2.6
82.2
78.0
82.1
79.0
84.0
81.0 g
78.5
82.0
-
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.01
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
85.0
118.5
106.3
105.0
115.0
121.0
120.0
102.0
105.0
100.0
101.0
-
1.0
3.0
3.2
3.0
8.7 k
6.0
4.6
-
2.6
1.6
2.2
1.8
3.2
2.7
3.4
2.1
1.8
2.8
1.7
1.9
2.5
1.7
2.4 h
3.3
2.0
2.9
2.7
4.0
1.9
3.6
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.2
-
3.3
2.1
2.6
2.8
4.0
3.1
3.7
2.8
2.1
3.2
2.1
2.1
-
3.0
3.0
2.5
1.5
3.0
2.1
2.7
2.7
-0.5
4.3
3.3 j
2.3
2.5
-
74.8
79.8
3.5 w
70.0
80.7
77.1
78.7
78.4
80.8 k
79.8
-
1.00
1.80
0.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.10
0.50
0.50
-
93.0
110.5
116.0
80.0
95.0
102.3
94.5
107.4
113.1 n
96.0
103.8
80.0
-
4.6
6.0
0.9
2.6
-
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
79.0
79.3
81.1
0.6
0.6
0.5
103.6
105.7
108.1
3.4
3.6
3.2
3.4
0.7
2.2
4.0
0.8
2.9
4.0
1.1
2.8
4.3
-0.5
2.7
84.0
70.0
79.3
1.80
0.01
0.50
121.0
80.0
103.0
6.0
0.9
3.0
2.2
3.4
2.7
2.2
81.0
M4
RPIX (Q4)
Oil price (Brent, $/bbl)
RPI (Q4)
Official Bank rate

(Q4, %)
CPI (Q4)
Sterling index (Q4)

(Jan 2005=100)
City forecasters
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
Deutsche Bank
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
J P Morgan
Lombard Street
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Scotia Capital
Societe Generale
UBS
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Jul
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Sep
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
CBI
CEBR
EIU
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
EC
OECD
IMF
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jun
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*

Independent
New (marked *)
City
Highest
Lowest
Median
OBR
Mar
November 2011
112.0 i
PSNB (bn 2012-13)
(bn)
Size of APF purchases
(bn)
Current account
and services
World trade in goods
Manufacturing output
(Q4,millions)
unemployment
Claimant
Employment growth
disposable income
Real household
(Q4)
City forecasters
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
Deutsche Bank
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
J P Morgan
Lombard Street
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Scotia Capital
Societe Generale
UBS
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jul
Jul
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Sep
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
4.4
-5.0
-1.8
-0.8
1.7
-2.5
-2.0
2.9
2.4
-5.7
2.4
-2.0
-
0.7
-2.0
-0.5
1.3
-0.4
1.8
1.6
1.4
0.1
0.3
-
0.6
0.0
-1.5
-0.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-1.2
-
1.50
1.64
1.90
1.76
1.79
1.52
1.84
1.63
1.55
1.83
1.73
1.98
1.40
1.50
4.4
1.1
-1.2
1.4
0.1
3.1
0.5
3.9
1.1
2.5
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.7
1.4
3.0
4.3
-
0.4
0.4
-1.0
0.4
0.2
-0.8
1.0
0.5
-
-0.7
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.1
-0.2
-1.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.5
-
1.70
1.69
1.69
1.70
1.60
1.58
1.74
1.75
1.63
2.76
1.69
8.60
8.30
7.80
2.6
1.4
2.5
0.6
1.3
1.5
2.0
-0.5
1.4
2.4
1.9
-
4.5 o
14.2
5.0
5.2
4.6
4.4 o
5.8
-0.1
-1.3
-0.9
0.3
0.3
0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.3
1.1
1.1
7.1
-5.7
-1.5
1.8
-2.0
0.4
0.8
-1.5
-0.1
1.98
1.40
1.70
1.4
0.6
1.50
y
y
xy
y
z
x
k
z
x
y
x
-18.0
2.9
-20.0
27.5
-28.7
-24.0
-38.3
11.1
-26.0
-34.0
-9.9
-28.5
-13.6
-9.0
-12.0
-21.5
200.0
275.0
400.0
500.0
350.0
200.0
325.0
500.0
200.0
325.0
325.0
400.0
350.0
350.0
200.0
-
107.0
111.2
115.0 s
125.5
113.0
111.0
110.0
108.0
98.0
110.0
91.0
95.0
104.0
114.2
108.0
123.0
105.0
85.0
-27.0
-43.2
-8.2
-20.0
-36.4
-25.0
-25.0
-17.1
-17.8
-8.3
-17.5
-0.9 a
-0.9 a
-2.3 a
325.0
275.0
300.0
325.0
400.0
375.0
-
107.7
146.4
109.5
139.0
110.0
113.1
114.0
114.8
115.0
87.2
138.1
111.1
7.3 a
7.1 ah
-
6.0
4.2
3.7
-17.7
-14.5
-12.7
350.0
377.1
378.1
112.8
112.1
112.1
3.9
-1.2
1.3
14.2
3.0
5.0
27.5
-43.2
-20.0
500.0
200.0
337.5
146.4
85.0
111.1
6.8
-34
101
CBI
CEBR
EIU
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
EC
OECD
IMF
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jun
Sep
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
2.5
7.1
-1.5
2.0
2.0
1.9
-1.6
-1.8
-2.8
-
x
z
z
k
x
z
x
hz
z
hp
hq
hq
hq

Independent
New (marked *)
City
Highest
Lowest
Median
OBR
Mar
0.1 hz
November 2011
Average of independent forecasts for 2011; GDP growth,

CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment
2.5
2.5

2.0
1.5
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
6.0
RPI (Q4, per cent)
5.0
#REF!
6.0
5.0
#REF!
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
CPI (Q4, per cent)
1.0
0.0
0.0
1.75
1.70
1.65
1.75
Claimant unemployment
(Q4, millions)
#REF!
#DIV/0!
1.65
#REF!
1.60
1.55
1.70
1.60
#REF!
1.55
1.50
1.50
1.45
1.45
November 2011
10
Average of independent forecasts for 2011; Current account

and PSNB (2011-12)
-15
-15
Current account (billion)

-20
-25
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
-20
-25
-30
-30
-35
-35
200
180
PSNB (2011-12, billion)

#REF!
#REF!
200
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
November 2011
11
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; GDP growth,

CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment
2.3
2.3

2.1
2.1
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.1
5.0
3.1
1.68
-18.7
131.2
5.0
#REF!
4.0
#REF!
RPI (Q4, per cent)
3.0
4.0
3.0
CPI (Q4, per cent)

2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.75
1.75
(Q4, millions)
1.70
1.65
#REF!
1.70
1.65
#REF!
1.60
1.60
#REF!
1.55
1.55
PU771 ISBN: 978-1-84532-674-6
1.50
1.50
1.45
1.45
November 2011
12
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; Current account

and PSNB (2012-13)
-15
-15

-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
-35
-35
115.0
112.5
115.0
112.5
110.0
110.0
107.5
107.5
105.0
105.0
102 5
102.5
102 5
102.5
100.0
100.0
97.5
97.5
95.0
95.0
November 2011
13
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011;

GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3
months
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
2.0
Liv
EP
2.0
1.5
1.0
CEBR
SC
EC
CapE
MS
EIU
BC
ING
S
SG
BCC
BEF
CBI
GI
ITEM
NIESR
N
OEF
CG
CB
EBS
GS
RBS
CamE
HSBC
UBS
DB
SCB
IMF
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.5
Independent Consensus
0.0
0.0
6.0
6.0
CPI (Q4, per cent)

5.5
MS
CEBR
EP
NIESR
BCC
BEF
C
HSBC
OEF
GS
ING
UBS
G
CG
BC
C
DB
D
SG
G
IT
TEM
CB
SC
EIU
GI
N
CapE
RBS
CBI
S
5.5
Liv
5.0
4.5
EBS
SCB
EC
4.5
5.0
Independent consensus
4.0
4.0
7.0
7.0
RPI (Q4, per cent)
6.5
RBS
BC
EBS
EP
CBI
ING
DB
CG
UBS
GI
EIU
BCC
SC
CapE
GS
HSBC
CB
OEF
SG
ITEM
BEF
5.0
CEBR
5.5
MS
6.0
NIESR
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
November 2011
14

Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (201112) made in last 3 months
2.20
2.20
Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions)
2.00
EBS
2.00
SG
SC
CG
EIU
RBS
GI
BCC
OEF
CBI
CB
DB
BEF
EP
CEBR
SCB
ING
CapE
1.80
1.60
BC
ITEM
UBS
1.60
GS
1.80
1.40
1.40
1.20
BC
SG
OEF
GI
RBS
Liv
NIESR
BEF
EIU
CB
EP
HSBC
ING
BCC
B
DB
-30
30
ITEM
-20
UBS
-10
CapE
CG
10
GS
10
20

CBI
20
1.20
0
-10
-20
-30
30
-40
-50
-50
-60
EBS
-40
-60
-70
-70
-80
-80
180
180
120
CG
BEF
EP
CB
GI
CBI
EBS
EIU
ITEM
MS
SG
BC
RBS
ING
OEF
SCB
DB
HSBC
GS
160
140
120
UBS
Liv
140
BCC
NIESR
160
CEBR
100
100
80
80
November 2011
15

GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3
months
3.0
3.0
Liv
BEF

EC
SC
SG
CEBR
EIU
CG
ING
GI
NIESR
RBS
OEF
MS
EBS
CBI
CB
DB
GS
HSBC
BC
CamE
ITEM
N
UBS
BCC
IMF
SCB
EP
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
CapE
0.5
2.5
0.0
S
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
4.0
4.0
EIU
CPI (Q4, per cent)

ING
BEEF
CapE
C
GS
G
SSG
SSCB
NIESR
CEBR
ITEM
OEF
HSBC
SC
GI
CBI
CB
BC
N
CG
DB
EC
MS
RBS
BCC
UBS
EBS
Liv
EP
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
S
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
RPI (Q4, per cent)
4.5
2.0
EIU
SC
BCC
MS
BC
UBS
DB
RBS
HSBC
GI
GS
CEBR
CB
NIESR
ING
OEF
CapE
BEF
SG
2.5
EBS
3.0
ITEM
3.5
CBI
4.0
CG
EP
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
1.5
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
November 2011
16

Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (201213) made in last 3 months
2.20
2.20
DB
RBS
CB
CG
GI
EIU
SC
CEBR
BCC
CBI
OEF
BC
GS
ITEM
EP
EBS
2.00
1.80
1.60
SCB
UBS
1.60
ING
1.80
BEF
CapE
2.00
SG
Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions)
1.40
1.40
40
30
1.20
CG
1.20
-40
EBS
DB
-30
BEF
BC
10
0
CBI
NIESR
RBS
ITEM
OEF
Liv
EP
CapE
UBS
GI
G
EEIU
BC
CC
CB
B
-20
20
ING
-10
HSBC
H
SG
10
30
20
GS
20
40
-10
-20
20
-30
-40
-50
-50
-60
-60
-70
-70
-80
-80
180
180
BEF
CG
SG
ITEM
GI
EIU
EBS
CB
BC
OEF
EP
ING
DB
CBI
RBS
GS
SCB
140
120
100
Liv
UBS
100
MS
HSBC
120
BCC
140
CEBR
160
NIESR
160
80
80
November 2011
17
Medium-term forecasts, November 2011

This edition of the comparison contains 14 new medium-term projections for the calendar years
2011 to 2015, and the fiscal years 2011-12 to 2014-15. The table below summarises the
independent average of new forecasts.
Independent average
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.0
1.1
2.1
2.3
2.4
Inflation rate (per cent)

- CPI
- RPI
4.5
5.3
2.7
3.3
2.0
2.6
2.2
3.2
2.3
3.6
Claimant unemployment (mn)
1.55
1.75
1.76
1.66
1.52
-16.0
-13.9
-11.0
-5.7
-4.0
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
129.1
117.0
98.2
81.1
Independent average
PSNB (bn)
Note: All the averages given are the mean and exclude non-standard entries (see notation).
November 2011
18
Table M1: Medium-term forecasts for GDP and the GDP deflator
GDP (percentage change)
2011
2012
2013
GDP deflator (percentage change)

2014
2015
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2.3
2.6
2.5
3.9
-
2.7
3.0
1.6
3.3
-
2.8
2.4
1.4
-
2.8
1.9
1.6
-
3.4
3.1
4.0
4.7
1.9 h
1.9
3.0
2.5
2.2
3.0
2.5 h
1.6
3.7
2.6
2.0
2.8
1.9 h
2.1
5.2
2.7
2.0
2.4
1.8 h
2.4
City forecasters
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.4
0.9
1.2
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.5
0.0
0.7
1.2
2.0
0.8
1.8
1.5
1.0
-0.4
1.9
2.1
2.5
1.5
1.1
1.9
2.9
2.3
2.0
1.8
0.9
-
2.3
2.1
1.8
3.0
2.2
2.0
1.7
-
2.2
2.8
1.8
2.9
2.2
2.2
-
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
ING
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Schroders IM
UBS
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.3
0.9
1.4
1.5
0.9
0.9
2.3
1.5
1.6
1.8
0.8
2.2
2.2
0.8
1.0
2.7
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.5
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.7
3.0
2.5
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.1
2.6
2.6
3.0
2.3
2.7

CEBR
Experian
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
*
*
1.0
1.0
1.4
1.1
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.4
Independent average
New forecasts (marked *)
3.1
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.8
1.5
0.8
2.3
-0.4
2.9
0.9
3.0
1.7
3.0
1.8
Highest
Lowest
4.7
1.9
3.3
1.6
3.7
1.4
5.2
1.6
*
*
*
*
Table M2: Medium-term forecasts for domestic demand and net trade contribution
Domestic demand (percentage change)
2011
2012
2013
2014
Contribution of net trade to GDP growth (per cent)

2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.6
0.4
1.6
1.3
0.1
1.6
1.1
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.4
0.1
1.0
0.3
0.8
0.1
0.9
0.0
0.3
-0.3
0.7
-0.3
0.4
1.1
0.4
0.8
0.1
0.5
0.6
0.1
-
0.0
0.3
-0.4
0.8
0.1
0.5
-0.3
-
0.3
-0.1
-0.4
0.6
0.1
-0.1
-
1.2
1.4
0.1
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.4
-0.6
0.5
0.3
0.0
0.6
1.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.8
-0.4
0.1
0.3
0.8
0.6
0.8
-1.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.5
City forecasters
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
1.3
-0.7
0.1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.2
1.0
-0.4
-0.3
0.9
1.2
0.6
0.9
1.5
0.7
0.0
1.4
2.9
0.6
0.0
1.5
2.0
2.3
1.6
1.2
0.6
-
2.4
1.8
2.2
2.2
2.1
1.5
1.8
-
1.9
2.9
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.2
-
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
ING
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Schroders IM
UBS
*
*
*
*
-0.5
-0.7
-0.2
1.0
-0.5
0.3
-0.8
-0.6
2.9
0.9
1.1
1.4
0.8
1.5
-0.5
0.8
2.5
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.0
1.8
2.9
1.6
1.8
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
3.4
1.8
1.9
2.4
2.3
2.0
2.3

CEBR
Experian
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
-0.3
-0.6
0.9
0.7
1.6
1.6
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.4
Independent average
1.2
1.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
1.3
-0.8
2.9
-0.5
2.9
0.0
2.9
1.5
3.4
1.8
Highest
Lowest
1.6
0.1
1.3
-0.6
1.1
-0.3
0.8
-0.4
0.6
-1.0
*
*
*
*
November 2011
*
*
*
*
*
*
19
Table M3: Medium-term forecasts for CPI and RPI inflation

CPI inflation (annual average, per cent)
2011
2012
2013
2014
RPI inflation (annual average, per cent)

2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.5
3.9
3.2
3.7
3.2
4.0
3.9
3.6
3.9
2.3
4.0
3.3
2.1
3.4
2.7
3.6
2.9
2.4
1.9
-
3.7
3.4
3.1
3.5
2.5
3.5
-
3.6
3.3
3.6
2.6
3.8
-
5.2
5.7
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.2
2.5
4.0
3.5
3.8
3.7
2.7
3.2
3.8
3.5
3.7
1.8
2.5
3.8
4.4
3.4
3.4
2.3
3.0
4.1
3.5
2.8
3.0
2.9
3.7
City forecasters
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.3
4.5
3.0
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.2
2.2
2.9
3.1
3.5
2.2
2.2
2.7
1.8
1.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
1.6
-
1.9
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.9
-
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.0
2.0
2.8
-
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
ING
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Schroders IM
UBS
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
4.5
3.9
4.2
4.5
4.5
4.2 k
4.4
4.5
2.3
2.2
2.6
2.8
2.5
3.4 k
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.2 k
1.7
1.8
3.0
2.1
2.3
2.3
1.5
2.0 k
1.8
1.9
3.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
1.7
2.0 k
1.8
2.0

CEBR
Experian
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
*
*
4.4
4.5
2.6
2.7
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
Independent average
5.3
5.3
3.5
3.3
2.9
2.6
3.3
3.2
3.4
3.6
4.6
3.9
3.5
2.2
2.5
1.5
3.0
1.5
3.2
1.7
Highest
Lowest
5.7
5.2
4.0
2.3
3.8
1.8
4.4
2.3
4.1
2.6
*
*
*
*
Table M4: Medium-term forecasts for the sterling index and official Bank rate
Sterling index (annual average, Jan 2005=100)
2011
2012
2013
2014
Official Bank rate (annual average, per cent)

2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.04
0.50
1.38
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.65
2.00
0.75
0.50
0.60
0.50
-
2.50
1.06
1.63
3.00
1.75
1.20
1.00
-
3.50
2.04
2.63
4.50
3.00
2.00
-
0.50
0.50
0.69
0.50
0.80
0.50
0.50
1.10
0.90
2.06
0.50
1.30
0.50
0.50
2.60
1.50
3.13
0.81
2.50
0.50
0.81
3.00
2.00
4.13
1.79
3.50
0.90
1.97
3.30
3.00
4.50
3.00
4.00
1.40
3.72
City forecasters
82.3
78.6
79.6
80.0
-
82.2
78.0
81.5
82.0
-
84.1
78.5
81.6
85.0
-
79.3
81.7
87.0
-
80.1
83.3
89.3
-
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
ING
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Schroders IM
UBS
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
79.7
83.6
80.0
79.7
80.7 k
80.1
77.1
88.2
78.7
78.4
80.6 k
80.7
73.9
88.2
77.7
77.6
81.3 k
81.5
73.1
88.2
76.4
77.4
82.2 k
85.1
73.3
88.2
75.0
77.0
83.1 k
86.5
80.4
80.0
80.8
79.7
80.9
79.5
81.0
79.3
81.6
80.0
Independent average
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.6
1.2
0.9
2.1
1.7
3.1
2.7
83.6
78.6
88.2
77.1
88.2
73.9
88.2
73.1
89.3
73.3
Highest
Lowest
0.8
0.5
2.1
0.5
3.1
0.5
4.1
0.9
4.5
1.4

CEBR
Experian
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
November 2011
*
*
*
*
*
*
20
Table M5: Medium-term forecasts for claimant unemployment

Claimant unemployment (annual average, millions)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.54
1.50
1.55
1.54
1.50
1.66
1.44
1.65
1.90
1.72
1.73
1.50
1.83
1.50
1.65
2.00
1.77
1.81
1.44
-
1.70
1.66
1.74
1.43
-
1.76
1.18
1.64
1.43
-
1.54
1.50
1.57
1.60
2.54 p
1.56
1.68
1.50
1.57
1.59
2.76 p
1.70
1.67
1.50
1.39
1.60
2.64 p
1.64
1.62
1.45
1.25
1.53
2.29 p
1.57
1.52
1.40
1.15
1.44
2.10 p
1.49
Independent average
1.54
1.55
1.66
1.75
1.65
1.76
1.55
1.66
1.44
1.52
Highest
Lowest
1.66
1.44
1.90
1.50
2.00
1.39
1.74
1.25
1.76
1.15
2014
2015
City forecasters
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
ING
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Schroders IM
UBS
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
CEBR
Experian
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
*
*
*
*
*
*
Table M6: Medium-term forecasts for house price inflation

House price inflation (annual average)
2011
2012
2013
City forecasters
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
ING
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Schroders IM
UBS
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
-0.40
-0.80
-1.36
-0.20
-2.70
-1.15
-2.70
1.48
y
y
xy
y
z
x
-0.40
-1.70
-0.50
-2.50
-4.50
-1.00
-0.80
x
x
x
2.30
-4.80
-0.99
-0.70
0.10
2.15
-5.10
2.00
y
y
xy
y
z
x
5.00
2.30
1.47
-3.40
1.30
-1.80
-1.84
x
x
x
6.60
-5.20
-1.94
-1.70
3.50
2.42
0.30
-
y
y
xy
y
z
x
6.80
3.70
3.04
1.70
5.30
-0.90
-1.54
x
x
7.10
0.23
0.90
4.70
1.00
-
y
xy
y
z
x
4.50
3.39
-0.20
5.70
2.00
-
y
xy
y
z
x
CEBR
Experian
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
*
*
*
*
*
*
k
z
x
z
z
z
k
z
x
z
z
z
k
z
x
z
z
z
5.90
4.70
3.30
4.80
5.00
0.90
1.32
z
k
z
x
z
z
z
8.00
5.50
3.26
6.80
4.50
2.10
3.68
Independent average
-1.28
-1.13
-0.13
-0.92
1.58
0.65
3.32
2.77
4.10
3.78
Highest
Lowest
1.48
-4.50
5.00
-5.10
6.80
-5.20
7.10
0.23
8.00
-0.20
November 2011
z
k
z
x
z
z
z
21
Table M7: Medium-term forecasts for the current account

Current account ( billion)
2011
2012
2013
Current account (per cent of money GDP)

2014
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-0.7
-1.3
-0.2
-1.6
-2.2
-1.9
-0.7
-1.1
-1.8
-0.9
0.2
-1.3
1.7
-1.8
-1.6
-1.5
-0.9
-0.6
-1.4
-0.2
-0.1
-1.0
3.3
-1.4
-1.2
-1.1
-
-0.1
3.8
-1.3
-0.8
-
0.2
3.9
-1.3
-0.5
-
-1.5
-1.9
-1.1
-1.8
-1.2
-1.0
-2.8
-2.1
-1.6
-0.3
-0.5
-1.1
-2.9
-1.8
-1.4
0.9
-0.3
-0.7
-2.7
-1.6
-1.1
1.9
0.0
-0.1
-2.7
-1.2
-0.9
2.5
0.0
0.2
City forecasters
-10.4
-20.0
-3.3
-24.5
-33.0
-11.2
-17.0
-13.4
2.9
-20.0
27.5
-28.7
-24.0
-13.6
-9.0
-4.0
-2.0
-15.0
53.2
-21.8
-18.0
-18.5
-
-2.2
64.2
-22.2
-12.0
-
3.1
68.7
-22.4
-8.0
-
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
ING
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Schroders IM
UBS
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
-22.3
-29.8
-16.2
-27.0
-18.0
-18.5
-14.5
-43.2
-33.6
-25.0
-6.0
-17.8
-8.3
-17.5
-49.3
-30.5
-23.2
15.0
-17.5
-4.8
-11.4
-47.9
-27.2
-19.2
34.0
-17.0
0.3
-1.6
-52.8
-22.5
-16.8
46.0
-16.0
0.4
4.2

CEBR
Experian
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
*
*
-18.6
-16.0
-14.7
-13.9
-11.1
-11.0
-4.6
-5.7
-1.5
-4.0
Independent average
-1.3
-1.0
-1.0
-0.9
-0.6
-0.6
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-3.3
-33.0
27.5
-43.2
53.2
-49.3
64.2
-47.9
68.7
-52.8
Highest
Lowest
-0.2
-2.2
1.7
-2.8
3.3
-2.9
3.8
-2.7
3.9
-2.7
*
*
*
*
Table M8: Medium-term forecasts for PSNB

PSNB ( billion)
2011-12
2012-13
PSNB (per cent of money GDP)

2013-14
2014-15
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
-8.4
8.5
-8.7
8.7
-7.9
8.1
8.2
8.2
-
-7.0
7.6
-7.9
7.2
-6.7
6.0
7.2
6.7
-
-5.2
6.1
-6.6
5.9
-4.8
-
-4.0
5.2
-5.3
5.2
-3.0
-
8.8
8.0
7.7
8.4
7.9
9.4
8.3
9.2
6.5
6.1
7.2
6.0
8.8
7.1
8.1
5.1
5.0
5.3
4.0
7.0
5.0
6.6
3.8
4.0
3.5
2.8
5.3
3.3
City forecasters
127.6
130.0
133.2
132.0
132.0
126.0
124.9
125.0
126.0
-
111.2
125.0
125.5
113.0
111.0
110.0
98.0
114.2
108.0
-
87.6
110.0
108.7
95.0
82.0
-
71.2
105.0
90.7
87.0
54.0
-
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
ING
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Schroders IM
UBS
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
132.9
123.0
119.1
129.5
122.0
120.2
141.6
125.2
146.4
104.0
99.1
114.8
100.0
87.2
138.1
111.1
138.0
85.0
83.3
88.3
68.0
75.5
114.6
82.4
121.1
69.0
70.0
61.1
50.0
72.0
91.2
57.3

CEBR
Experian
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
127.7
129.1
112.7
117.0
93.7
98.2
76.9
81.1
Independent average
5.0
4.0
4.3
3.6
2.9
2.3
2.3
1.9
141.6
119.1
146.4
87.2
138.0
68.0
121.1
50.0
Highest
Lowest
9.4
-8.7
9.2
-7.9
8.1
-6.6
6.6
-5.3
November 2011
*
*
*
*
*
*
22
Table M9: Medium-term forecasts for the output gap

Output gap (percentage of potential GDP)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-2.3
-2.6
-2.3
-0.5
-
-2.7
-2.8
-2.1
-1.0
-
-2.6
-2.1
-1.7
-0.8
-
-2.1
-1.3
0.5
-
-1.3
-0.6
1.2
-
-1.6
-1.5
-0.8
-0.3
-0.2
Independent average
-1.9
-1.7
-2.0
-1.8
-1.6
-1.5
-0.8
-0.6
-0.2
-0.1
Highest
Lowest
-0.5
-2.6
-1.0
-2.8
-0.8
-2.6
0.5
-2.1
1.2
-1.3
City forecasters
Barclays Capital
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
ING
Morgan Stanley
Nomura
Schroders IM
UBS
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
CEBR
Experian
IHS Global Insight
ITEM Club
NIESR
Oxford Economics
*
*
*
*
*
*
November 2011
23
4.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
2011
2012
-4.9
-4.3
1.5
-2.1
1.60
-35.3
133.7
2.3
0.7
1.73
-13
200
2013
2014
2015
4.6
0.0
4.6
CPI inflation
(annual average, per cent)
4.2
3.8
4.2
3.8
3.4
3.4
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.0
2011
2012
2.00
2013
2014
2015
1.0
2.00
(annual average, millions)
1.80
1.80
1.60
1.60
1.40
1.40
#DIV/0!
31.23833
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.00
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
November 2011
24
-10
-4.9
-4.3
1.5
-2.1
1.60
-35.3
133.7
2.3
0.7
1.73
-13
200
-10

-20
-20
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
140
140
PSNB (billion)
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
November 2011
2014-15
25
Annex 1: Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables

AA
ABN AMRO
BoA
BC
Barclays Capital
BCC
BEF
BP
BNP Paribas
CamE
CapE
Capital Economics
CG
Citigroup
CBI
Confederation of British Industry
CEBR
Centre for Economics and Business Research
CB
Commerzbank
DCM
DB
Deutsche Bank
EBS
Experian Business Strategies (previously BSL)
EC*
European Commission
EIU
Economist Intelligence Unit
EP
GI
IHS Global Insight
GS
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
HSBC Global Research
ING
IMF*
International Monetary Fund
ITEM
ITEM Club
JPM
JP Morgan Chase
Liv
LS
Lombard Street Research
MS
Morgan Stanley
NIESR
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
OECD*
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
OEF
Oxford Economic Forecasting
RBS
Royal Bank Of Scotland Global Banking & Markets
SC
Scotia Capital
SG
Societe Generale
SCB
UBS
UBS
* Forecasts from the EC, IMF and OECD are updated when a full forecast is produced.
November 2011
26
Annex 2: Data definitions

GDP
National accounts, Table C2, Code ABMI
Private consumption
Households + NPISH, National accounts, Table C2,

Code ABJR+HAYO
General government consumption
National accounts, Table C2, Code NMRY
Gross fixed investment
National accounts, Table C2, Code NPQT
National Accounts, Table C2, Code CAFU
Domestic demand
National Accounts, Table C2, Code YBIM
Exports (goods and services)
National Accounts, Table C2, Code IKBK
Imports (goods and services)
National Accounts, Table C2, Code IKBL
Output Gap
The gap between actual output and trend (or potential) output, expressed as a percentage of trend (or potential)
CPI (Q4)
Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code D7G7
RPI (Q4)
Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code CZBH
RPIX (Q4)
Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code CDKQ
Whole Economy Average Weekly Earnings (Total Pay)
Labour market statistics, Table 15
Sterling index (Q4, Jan 2005=100)
Bank of England Monetary and Financial statistics division
output.
Code BK67
Official Bank Rate (Q4)
(Previously Bank of England repo rate (Q4)), Code BEDR
Oil price ($ per barrel)
Brent crude, annual average
M4 growth
Bank of England Monetary and Financial statistics division

Code VQJW, calendar year (previously financial year)
Q4 on Q4 annual percentage change in house prices
RHDI
National accounts, Table J2, Code NRJR
Employment growth
Workforce jobs, Labour market statistics, Table 4, Code DYDC
Claimant unemployment (Q4, mn)
Labour market statistics, Table 10, Code BCJD
Manufacturing Output
National accounts, Table B1, Code CKYY
World trade in goods and service

Balance of payments release, Table A, Code HBOP
Size of APF purchases (bn)
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/apf/index.htm
Public Sector Net Borrowing
Public sector finances release, Table PSF 1 /

Public sector accounts, Table PSAT 1, Code ANNX
November 2011
27
Annex 3: Notation used in tables

a:
as a percentage of GDP
b:
non-durable consumption
c:
consumer expenditure less expenditure on durables and housing
d:
private sector investment, stockbuilding and durable consumption
e:
investment and stockbuilding combined
f:
contribution to GDP growth - percentage points
g:
end period
h:
calendar year
i:
financial year
j:
compensation of employees/head
k:
different definitions; refer to forecasters for details
l:
3 month interbank rate
m:
general government current and capital expenditure plus stockbuilding
n:
o:
average of spot price of Brent crude and Dubai light crude

world trade in manufacturing
p:
ILO unemployment - millions
q:
ILO unemployment rate
r:
PSNCR (Formerly PSBR)
s:
PSNB including the effect of financial interventions
t:
world GDP
u:
OPEC average
v:
final domestic demand
w:
percentage change
x:
based on Halifax house price index
y:
based on Nationwide house price index
z:
based on CLG house price series
aa:
claimant unemployment rate

treaty deficit
ab:
November 2011
28
Annex 4: Organisation contact details

Organisation
Contact
E-mail address
Telephone number
ABN AMRO
Joost Beaumont
joost.beaumont@nl.abnamro.com
020 628 3437
Nick Bate
Nick_Bate@ml.com
020 7995 4262
Barclays Capital
Blerina Uruci
Blerina.Uruci@barclayscapital.com
020 7773 4373
David Smith
xxxbeaconxxx@btinternet.com
01923 897 885
David Kern
David.Kern@btinternet.com
020 8904 6293
Ragini Madan
rm@camecon.com
01223 533100
Capital Economics
Jonathan Loynes
Jonathan.loynes@capitaleconomics.com
020 7823 5000
Citigroup
Michael Saunders
Michael.Saunders@citigroup.com
020 7986 9297
CBI
David Muir
David.Muir@cbi.org.uk
020 7395 8102
CEBR
Charles Davis
Cdavis@cebr.com
020 7324 2863
Commerzbank
Peter Dixon
Peter.Dixon@commerzbank.com
020 7653 7271
Hetal Mehta
Hetal.Mehta@uk.daiwacm.com
020 7597 8338
Deutsche Bank
George Buckley
George.Buckley@db.com
020 7545 1372
Meera Sadier
Meera.Sadier@uk.experian.com
020 7746 8235
EC
Thomas Springbett
thomas.springbett@ec.europa.eu
0032 2296 7226
EIU
Neil Prothero
Neilprothero@eiu.com
020 7576 8308
Peter Warburton
peter@economicperspectives.co.uk
01582 696 999
Goldman Sachs
Adrian Paul
Adrian.Paul@gs.com
HSBC
Alexander Pefanis
alexander.pefanis@hsbcib.com
IHS Global Insight
Howard Archer
Howard.Archer@ihsglobalinsight.com
020 3159 3563
James Knightley
James.Knightley@uk.ing.com
020 7767 6614
ITEM club
Peter Spencer
Ps35@york.ac.uk
01904 323771
J P Morgan
Allan Monks
allan.j.monks@jpmorgan.com
020 7777 1080
David Meenagh
Meenaghd@cf.ac.uk
029 2087 5198
Lombard Street Research
Jamie Dannhauser
Jamie.Dannhauser@lombardstreetresearch.com
0207 382 5961
Morgan Stanley
Melanie Baker
Melanie.Baker@morganstanley.com
020 7425 8607
NIESR
Simon Kirby
S.Kirby@niesr.ac.uk
020 7222 7665
Nomura
Philip Rush
Philip.Rush@nomura.com
2071029595
Oxford Economics
Elizaveta Ross
lross@oxfordeconomics.com
01865 268 224
Royal Bank of Scotland
Ross Walker
Ross.Walker@rbos.com
020 7085 3670
Scotia Capital
Alan Clarke
alan_clarke@scotiacapital.com
0207 826 5986
Schroders Investment Management Azad Zangana
Azad.Zangana@schroders.com
020 7658 2671
Societe Generale
Brian Hilliard
Brian.Hilliard@sgcib.com
020 7676 7165
Sarah Hewin
Sarah.Hewin@sc.com
020 7885 6251
UBS
Nishit Mittal
Nishit.Mittal@ubs.com
November 2011
29
HMTreasury contacts
This document can be found in full on our website at:
hm-treasury.gov.uk
If you require this information in another language,
format or have general enquiries about HM Treasury
and its work, contact:
Correspondence and Enquiry Unit
HMTreasury
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Tel: 020 7270 5000
Fax: 020 7270 4861
E-mail: public.enquiries@hmtreasury.gov.uk

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Forecasts for the UK economy:

a comparison of independent forecasts

compiled by the Macroeconomic Prospects Team

Official versions of this document are printed on

If using an electronic version of the document,

Crown copyright 2011

Summary Page: Medium-term Forecasts

Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables

FORECASTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY

Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn)

Current account (bn)

PSNB (2011-12: bn)

GDP growth (per cent)

Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)

Forecasts for 2012

Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn)

Current account (bn)

PSNB (2012-13: bn)

GDP growth (per cent)

Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)

Forecasts for the UK economy

Output Gap (as % of

Forecasters and dates of forecasts

Table 1 - 2011: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)

Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months

Forecasts for the UK economy

Oil price (Brent, $/bbl)

Official Bank rate

Forecasters and dates of forecasts

Sterling index (Q4)

Table 2 - 2011: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)

Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months

Forecasts for the UK economy

PSNB (bn 2011-12)

Size of APF purchases

Current account (bn)

World trade in goods

Forecasters and dates of forecasts

House price inflation

Table 3 - 2011: Growth in other selected variables (% change)

Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months

Forecasts for the UK economy

Output Gap (as % of

Net trade contribution

Forecasters and dates of forecasts

Table 4 - 2012: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)

Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months

Forecasts for the UK economy

Oil price (Brent, $/bbl)

Official Bank rate

Forecasters and dates of forecasts

Sterling index (Q4)

Table 5 - 2012: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)

Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months

Forecasts for the UK economy

PSNB (bn 2012-13)

Size of APF purchases

World trade in goods

Forecasters and dates of forecasts

House price inflation

Table 6 - 2012: Growth in other selected variables (% change)

Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months

Forecasts for the UK economy