MP4007/AE4007/CV4000 Engineers & Society Engineering Practice

Sustainable Development Mental Model

Professor Lim Mong King 2011

Outline
Global Trends

Mental Model
Industry Implications and Strategies Tools and Methodologies

The Challenge of Sustainable Development Arises From These Two Major Converging Trends

1. Decline in resource availability and ecosystems

Diminishing margin for action

Sustainability

2. Increase in Population and Consumption

2

Higher Order Thinking Required

Albert Einstein:
We cannot expect to be able to resolve any complex problem from within the same manner of thinking that created it in the first place. Marcus Aurelius: Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth. Mark Twain:

What gets us into trouble is not what we dont know. Its what we know for sure that just aint so.

Its All About Mental Model

Watch your mindset, it becomes your thoughts.

Watch your thoughts, they become your words.

Watch your words, they become your actions.

Watch your actions, they become your habits.

Watch your habits, they become your character.

Watch your character, it becomes your destiny.

Frank Outlaw
4

Mental Models - How They Work

Actions

Results

Mental Models

Thoughts

I knew it all along!

Our thoughts affect the results that we get!

Mental Models

Mental models are deeply ingrained assumptions, generalizations or even pictures or images that influence how we understand the world and take action.

Assumptions about the Future

AssumptionsDecisionsActions

Important to make explicit

Help to clarify our mental models about the future

The Fifth Discipline, Peter Senge

Personal Mastery

Shared Vision

System thinking

Team Learning

Mental Model

Personal Mastery
Learning to expand our personal ability to produce the results we most desire by creating a personal vision of who we want to be; learning to see the world from a creative perspective which encourages others to develop themselves.

The essence of Personal Mastery is learning to generate and sustain creative tension in our lives.

Team Learning

Team learning is the process of aligning and developing the capacity of a team to create the results that members truly desire.

It is about learning together to develop group intelligence and ability greater than the sum of individual members & abilities.

Shared Vision
My Vision Our Shared Vision

Your Vision

Creative Tension
Problem solving
(focusing on
What I dont want)
Creative Tension Emotional Tension

My Vision

Reactive Orientation

Creating
(Focus on What I want)
Generative Orientation

Current Realty

A Model and Process for Change

Vision
Policies Results Processes Organisation Values Mental Models

Creative

Tension
P, P, O Results

V, MM

Current Realty

Systems Thinking Iceberg Analogy

Events Patterns Structure An issue is often presented to us, in the form of events and patterns. To get to the root of any issue, we should uncover the underlying structures which form the patterns and events, that are often only visible to us.

What is an Event?
1. An Event is an occurrence at some moment in time. 2. Were hung up on events rather than their causes or how they fit into a larger pattern. 3. We cannot continue to react to events; rather we must anticipate and shape them. 4. Solutions that address events are short-lives because they do not address the fundamental structure that caused the event.

15

What are Patterns (Trends)?

1. Patterns are changes in events over time. 2. Patterns allow us to understand the systemic structure that drives that pattern. 3. In a pattern, we begin to see how a series of events are inter-related and begin thinking about what caused them. 4. To anticipate events and ultimately change a pattern, we need to move to the level of structure.
16

What is a Structure?
1. A structure is the way system components are interrelated, i.e. the organization of a system. 2. A systems structure give rise to events and patterns (trends). 3. Although systems are built on structures, they are invisible. 4. The structure holds the key to lasting change because actions taken at the structural level are creative and influence the future. 5. Know when to address a problem at the event, pattern or structural level or a combination of the three. 17

Levels of Understanding
Action Mode Time Orientation Present Way of Perceiving Questions You Would Ask
fastest way to react to this event now?

Events

React!

Witness Event Whats the

Patterns

Adapt!

Measure or What kinds of track patterns trends or patterns of events seem to of events
be recurring?

Structure

Create Change! Future

Causal diagrams and other systems thinking tools

What structures are in place that are causing these patterns?

The basis of systems thinking is the holistic approach, of seeing the system as a whole, of seeing the forest rather than the trees.

Fire-fighting

Crises Tasks

Events

Anticipating

Trends

Patterns

Designing
Unwritten Rules Reward Systems

Structure

Peoples Mental Models

Looking beneath the surface . . .

Finding the leverage . . .
What we get (Results, Events, Behaviors)

Example: NTU
What We See

What we do (curriculum, instructional strategies, assessment/feedback systems, reward /punishment systems, other actions, policies, practices)

Leverage

What we want (vision, goals, objectives) What we know (knowledge, skills, research-base) What we believe (values, attitudes, mental models)

What is Behavior (that it is not an Event)?

Quantitative
the sequence of quantities

Computer

Levels of description

the trend (quality of behavior)

decreases first descends, then grows Event

the change of the trend

Qualitative

switches from decreasing to growth

Behavior

Modeler

Specialization

What is Systems Thinking

Systems thinking originated in 1956, when Professor Jay Forrester founded the Systems Dynamic Group at MIT's Sloan School of Management. Systems thinking is the process of understanding how things influence one another other within a whole
A way of thinking about, and a language for describing and understanding, the forces and interrelationships that shape the behavior of systems. . In nature, systems thinking examples include ecosystems in which various elements such as air, water, movement, plant and animals work together to survive or perish. ...

Behavior-Over-Time Graphs
Systems thinking uses computer simulation and a variety of diagrams and graphs to model, illustrate, and predict system behavior. Among the systems thinking tools are: the behavior over time (BOT) graph, which indicates the actions of one or more variables over a period of time; the causal loop diagram (CLD), which illustrates the relationships between system elements; the management flight simulator, which uses an interactive program to simulate the effects of management decisions; and the simulation model, which simulates the interaction of system elements over time.

It is used to visualize how variables change over time.

Move from event to overtime perspective

Famous Example of Causal Loop Diagram: Population Dynamics

+ population + deaths +

+
+ births +

natality +

mortality +

birth control policy

public health policy

What is a System?

Any group of interacting, interdependent, related parts that form a complex and unified whole, that whole having a purpose.

A system maintains its existence through the interaction of its parts. Systems are complex, dynamic, inter-dependent.

System dynamics is an approach to understanding the behaviour of complex systems over time. It deals with internal feedback loops and time delays that affect the behaviour of the entire system. What makes using system dynamics different from other approaches to studying complex systems is the use of feedback loops and stocks and flows. These elements help describe how even seemingly simple systems display baffling nonlinearity.

Outflow
Level Inflow

Stocks and flows diagram helps to identify leverage points (looking for causality how is this behavior generated?).

Bathtub Dynamics
Linda Booth Sweeney

Characteristics of a System

1. All the parts of a system must be arranged in such a way that the system can achieve its goals. 2. Systems have specific purposes with in larger systems. 3. Systems maintain stability through fluctuations and adjustments. 4. Systems have feedback.

27

Archetype 1 Fixes that Backfire

Dont push growth. Remove the factors that limit growth
A quick-fix solution can have unintended consequences that exacerbate the problem.

Problem Symptom

Fix

Over time, the problem symptom returns to its previous level or becomes worse.

Delay Time Unintended Consequences

Behavior Over Time

Archetype 2: Shifting the Burden

An underlying problem generates symptoms that demand attention. Butunderlying problem is obscure or costly to confront. So people shift the burden to other solutions that address the symptoms.

Systems Thinking What skills do we need to build? Habits of a Systems Thinker 1. Seeks to understand the big picture
If we focus on the symptoms, we perceive only the effects of changes locally, but not elsewhere in the system Fit the root cause not the symptom Causes are inter-related, not isolated

Holding the tension of paradox and controversy without trying to resolve it too quickly, understanding and considering how mental models affect current reality and the future, surfacing and testing assumptions.

Habits of a Systems Thinker 2. Changes perspectives to increase understanding

Short-term success can actually hurt long term success. Data (measurable, non-measurable).

Looking for interdependencies, patterns, and trends, identifying complex cause and effect relationships, focusing on structure, not on blame.

Habits of a Systems Thinker 3. A systems thinker uses understanding of system structures to identify possible leverage actions
Dynamic, complex, inter-related (things change, life is messy). We usually wish to simplify things, establish order, and working with one problem at a time; but beware of possible traps.

Finding where unintended consequences emerge, considers both short and long-term consequences of actions, recognizes the impact of time delay when exploring cause and effect relationships.

Habits of a Systems Thinker

4. A Systems Thinker monitors results and consistently realigns actions as needed. Successive Approximation

Human learning disabilities:

Inability to see the effect across boundaries in time and space.

Inability to pre-empt the effect of delays.

Seven Thinking Skills of a Systems Thinker*

Systems Thinking skill Dynamic Thinking Focusing on patterns of behavior (trends) over time System-as-Cause Thinking Choosing to focus on the system within the organizations control as responsible for performance issues Forest Thinking Taking the 30,000 foot view of the system Operational Thinking Looking for causality (How is this behavior generated?) Closed-loop (Feedback) Thinking Understanding the feedback and ongoing process responsible for behavior Qualitative Thinking Understanding how to represent non-physical, immeasurable variables in analysis Scientific Thinking Building the most useful, entertainable theory of causality Contrasts with Static Thinking Focusing on specific events System-as-Effect Thinking Choosing to focus on forces outside the organizations control as generating the performance issues (creating victimitis) Tree-by-tree Thinking Focusing on the details, often getting lost in spreadsheets! Factors Thinking Developing a list of factors associated/correlated with the behavior Straight-line Thinking Believing causality is a one-way, linear relationship Quantitative Thinking Including only those variables believed measurable Proving Truth Thinking Looking for The Answer

*Barry Richmond

Organizational Learning Capabilities

Capacity to create the future and the results that we want three interdependent core capabilities:

Aspiration Generative conversation

Understanding complexity
Any organization that has a culture and structure that promotes learning at all levels to enhance its capabilities to produce, adapt and shape its future.

Advocacy and inquiry

How can we have a productive conversation?
H
Explaining
Here is how the world works why I see it that way

Generative Dialogue
Suspend all assumptions, create an environment in which collective thinking & learning can emerge

Advocacy
L

Observing
Sensing and keenly aware of all that transpire

Clarifying
What are the questions we are trying to answer?

Inquiry

Sustainable Development Six Mental Model Themes

1. Time Orientation

2. Responsiveness
3. Attention Range 4. Logic Basis 5. Problem Consideration 6. Life Focus

Behind our thoughts lie our mental models. It is useful to be able to surface our mental models to see how they impact our behavior and actions.

37

Six Common Dimensions of Thinking

Short Term _________________________________ Time Orientation Reactive _________________________________ Creative Long Term

Focus of Responsiveness
Local _________________________________ Focus of Attention Separation _________________________________ Prevailing Logic Accountability / Blaming _________________________________ Learning Systems Global

Problem Consideration
Doing / Having _________________________________ Life Orientation Being / Becoming
38

Short Term Long Term

Short Term Long Term

Time Orientation

39

Reactive Creative

Reactive

Response Focus

Creative

40

Local Global

Local

Attention Focus

Global

41

Separation Systems

Separation / Either-Or

Prevailing Logic

Systems / Both-And

42

Accountability / Blaming Learning

Problem Consideration

Accountability/ Blame

Learning

43

Doing / Having Being / Becoming

Life Orientation

Doing / Having

Being / Becoming

44

Predominant Mental Models

Short Term Reactive

Local / Parochial
Either / Or Accountability & Blame Doing / Having
45

Probably No Better !
Long Term Creative

Global
Both / And (Systems) Learning Being
46

Versatility (Appropriate Flexibility) Is Needed

Short Term _________________________________ Long Term

Time Orientation
Reactive _________________________________ Focus of Responsiveness Local _________________________________ Focus of Attention Separation _________________________________ Prevailing Logic Accountability / Blaming _______________________________ Problem Consideration Learning Systems Global Creative

Doing / Having

_________________________________ Life Orientation

Being / Becoming
47

THANK YOU

48