123…Go India!

The Indo-US nuclear deal brings into sharp focus several factors. The
present article attempts to discuss some consequences arising out of
the deal, specific to India.

1. Nuclear energy as a viable option:

The 2006 report of the Energy coordination committee estimated
that if India were to sustain an annual growth of 8%, its power
generation by 2030 would have to scale up at least 5 times over
the present capability. This translates into an investment of
about Rs. 60,000 billion in oil and coal over the next 25 years - a
prohibitive investment for India. Moreover, rapidly dwindling
conventional resources and uncertain geo-politics makes
dependence on conventional sources untenable over the long
term.
According to the Planning Commission’s Integrated Energy
Policy, 2006, the addition of even 10,000 MW of power to the
existing capacity would be “unrealistic” with present resources,
clearly calling for power generation from resources other than
presently exploited. The cost per unit of nuclear power is just
about half that of conventional resources. It therefore stands as a
viable option to meet India’s power needs in future. Though
nuclear power contributes a dismal 2.5% to the total power
generated in India (as of 2008), the Government estimates that
the nuclear deal would add an additional 40,000 MW of critically
essential and cheap Nuclear Power to India. The nuclear deal is
therefore bound to give a shot in the arm to India’s capability to
generate power.

2. A new job market:

 According to the CIA’s The World Factbook (2008), India’s world
ranking in terms of unemployment is 86 (7.2% unemployment) in
2008. The long term picture looks alarming though. According to
TeamLease Services ‘India Labour Report, 2006’ current trends
indicate that India will have an astonishing 30% unemployment
by 2020. The current global recession and credit crunch and the
accompanying problems only portend further deterioration on
the job market front.

Mr. Bruce Josten, the chairman of the US Chamber of

Commerce and a strong supporter of the nuclear deal, has gone
on record to say that the nearly $150 billion nuclear business in
India could support 250,000 hi-tech jobs in the US. Mr. Jairam
Ramesh, the Indian minister of state for commerce and power,
recently observed that the 30-odd reactors that India is planning
to set-up in the coming years would see thousands of jobs in
India for engineers, technicians and scientists, not mentioning
the support staff. This sentiment was also echoed by the
congress MP Mr. Rahul Gandhi, when he said “The nuclear deal
means millions and millions of jobs…”
Indications are therefore quite strong that the Nuclear Deal
is likely to kick-start a fresh impetus to employment-generation
and help keep the wolves away from the doors of quite a few
families.

3. India –a new ‘Powerhouse’?

Ground situation in world politics changed dramatically
post-September 11th when the terrorism crossed boundaries and
affected humanity as a whole. With India simultaneously making
rapid strides in key areas and its economy booming, it could no
longer be ignored on the world stage.
 Under such circumstances, the signing of the Indo-US
nuclear deal is bound to force the redrafting of foreign policies of
several countries, a step made further necessary by favourable
reactions coming from key sources. President of Pakistan Mr. Asif
Ali Zardari declared that his country did not see India as a threat
and had no objections to the Indo-US deal. China too averred
that it understood India’s energy needs and its necessity to push
for closer ties with the US. An indication of the changing
dynamics in world politics was given by the American Secretary
of State Ms. Condoleezza Rice when she said that the signing of
the nuclear deal with India was an acknowledgement of the
emergence of India on the global stage. With such positive
reactions and receding threat of polarization in political affairs, it
now remains to be seen how far India succeeds in influencing the
course of world politics. One may hazard a guess at this juncture
that the internal politics of India could prove more detrimental in
India’s quest to be a global ‘powerhouse’.

4. Environmental concerns :
Though helping in reducing carbon emissions, nuclear power still
spells a dangerous recipe for irreversible environmental disaster
if safety and pollution norms are ambiguous and not taken
seriously. The Chernobyl tragedy is a grim reminder of the havoc
wreaked by nuclear power with scant safety measures. Highly
toxic nuclear waste disposal is another problem the government
has to contend with. The Nuclear deal is bound to bring state-of-
the-art technology into Indian hands. The critical question to ask
is if we have the wherewithal to protect this technology and
prevent its misuse. A systematic upgradation of our abilities on
these fronts is therefore called for.
The Indo-US nuclear deal only spells good for India and its
strategic as well as other needs. Not only is it certain to propel
India into a visible global player, it is also an economical and
viable option to address India’s energy needs. But efforts need to
be made to put strict laws and enforcement mechanisms in place
and ensure the safety and security of a variety of state-of-art
technologies and potentially dangerous material. Overall, since
the gains far outweigh the losses, it is 123….go for India!