EFA-Climate Change v3

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)
Eugene Araullo, PEE Araullo, 36th IIEE Annual National Convention, PICC
Climate Change
(Impact and Design Consideration)
Eugene F. Araullo, PEE, PMP, CDCP, ITIL
36th IIEE Annual National Convention Philippine International Convention Center

November 25, 2011
Economic Development through Clean & Affordable Electricity
In this Session
Learn and discover What is climate change, the risks and their impacts to our environment, infrastructure and people Other environmental or natural hazards The industry and engineering challenges as a result of climate change Trends, opportunities and recommendations
iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011
Page 1 of 32

Our Roadmap
Climate Change Risks and Impacts Other Natural Hazards & Scenarios The Industry & Engineering Challenge Trends, opportunities and recommendations
Our Roadmap
Page 2 of 32

Climate Change - definition

Climate change a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to the natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Human activities that had increased concentration of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, including carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, ozone, and nitrous oxide
Why is this happening?

Our complacency and lack of understanding of the delicate balance in nature
Air/water Pollution
Desertification or overgrazing Excessive Logging/ deforestation Lack of care to environment
Priorities and interest
the need to produce more to support growing population and improving lifestyle
Page 3 of 32

Climate Change Effects Summary

Increased surface temperatures Melting of permafrost, sea ice & glaciers (which speeds global warming) Rises in sea levels Changes in precipitation Increases in intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, tornadoes, hurricanes, and heavy rainfall Longer, more severe droughts Expansion of subtropical deserts Species endangerment, extinction and loss of biodiversity Drops in agricultural yields Spread of vector-borne diseases because of increased range of insects Acidification of oceans - drops in fishing yields and death of coral reefs
Climate Change the Human Issue

Heavy impacts on developing nations Magnifies existing inequalities Poor communities become more vulnerable, especially in climate high risk areas
Displacement due to floods Hunger/malnutrition and limited access to clean and safe water Livelihood/assets destroyed Health impacts Increase poverty level
Page 4 of 32

Climate Change
Hydro-Meteorological Hazard
Typhoons Floods Landslide Liquefaction

Source: PAGASA-DOST PAGASA10
Page 5 of 32

Pacific Typhoon Incidences (2009)
22 Typhoons; 5ST Emong 120 kph (May6) Kiko 140 kph, (Aug 3) Ondoy - 150 kph (Sep 25) Pepeng 185 kph (Oct 3) Santi 150 kph (Oct 27)
Tropical depression Tropical storm Category 1 Category 2
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale 039 mph 062 km/h Category 3 111130 mph 178209 km/h 3973 mph 63117 km/h Category 4 131155 mph 210249 km/h 7495 mph 119153 km/h Category 5 156 mph 250 km/h 96110 mph 154177 km/h Unknown
Source: Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), Tropical Storm Risk Consortium
14 Typhoons; 1ST Basyang 130 kph (July 13) Caloy, - 130 kph (July 17) Juan - 230 kph (Oct 13)
Page 6 of 32

20 Typhoons; 4ST Chedeng 195 kph (May 24) Juaning - 95 kph (July 27) Mina - 185 kph (Aug 23) Pedring 150 kph (Sep 25) Quiel 175 kph (Sep 29)
Areas vulnerable to Climate Change/Global Warming: Rising Sea levels And Flooding
Page 7 of 32

Case: Ondoy (Sept 2009)

Extreme Hazard Maximum Exposure High Vulnerability
Sources: Dr. Gemma T. Narisma, Dr. Celine Vicente, Dr. Fernando Siringan*, Dr. Mahar Lagmay** and Ms. Antonia Y. Loyzaga, Manila Observatory, Philippines
Page 8 of 32

Our Roadmap
Page 9 of 32

Other Hazards Seismic Origin (addl)
Earthquake Tsunami Landslide Liquefaction

Source: PHILVOCS
19
The Ring of Fire
Philippines
20
Page 10 of 32

Metro Manila Seismic Threats
West Valley Fault
Model
08 West Valley Fault
Magnitude
7.2
Characteristics
Severe Damage
Manila Trench
Indonesia 2004, DIGITALGLOBE

13 Manila Trench 7.9 Tsunami (2m high)
Intensity Distribution
Intensity (MMI)
NAVOTAS VALENZUELA MALABON
CALOOCAN NORTH
QUEZON CITY MARIKINA
9 8
VIII - Very Destructive 7 IX - Devastating
CAL. SOUTH
SAN JUAN PASIG MANILA MANDALUYONG PASAY MAKATI PATEROS TAGUIG PARANAQUE
6 5
(Magnitude 7.2, West Valley Fault)
Source: Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) JICA-PHIVOLCS-MMDA
LAS PINAS MUNTINLUPA
22
Page 11 of 32

Building Damage Estimate
1 - 20 20 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 500 500 - 3000

Source: MMEIRS
23
Liquefaction Potential
MALABON NAVOTAS CAL. SOUTH
CALOOCAN NORTH
VALENZUELA
High
QUEZON CITY MARIKINA
Relatively High
MANILA
SAN JUAN PASIG MANDALUYONG
Relatively Low
MAKATI PASAY
PATEROS TAGUIG
Low
PARANAQUE
LAS PINAS MUNTINLUPA
Source: MMEIRS
24
Page 12 of 32

Fire Outbreak Potential

VALENZUELA QUEZON CITY MARIKINA
MANILA
MANILA
PASIG PATEROS
TAGIG Maximum Burnt Number

500 1,000 200 - 500 100 - 200 50 - 100 20 - 50 1 - 20
MUNTINLUPA
500 Fires may occur simultaneously Source: MMEIRS
Factor Used: Estimated Results:
Wind Speed = 8m/sec Area = 1,710 has. Building: 98,000 Deaths = 19,000
25
Possible Regional Separation

Earthquake Impact: (Model 08 West Valley Fault)
Source: JICA Study/ MMEIRS
26
Page 13 of 32

The Need to be Prepared !

Unavoidable/unfavorable events (calamities) are realities and givens. It will definitely affect our: Energy Security (availability, reliability & cost) Facility and other property or assets Safety, Security and Quality of Life
HAZARD
RISK POTENTIAL
VULNERABILITY
DISASTER
Climate Change is real and happening now; dont wait! Be the change engineers!
Page 14 of 32

Our Roadmap
The Industry Challenge

Electric Power Industry Generation Transmission Distribution Supply
Environmental Issues: Climate change, pollution and other natural hazards. Social & Economic Issues: Fuel cost, food cost, inflation, unemployment, etc. Regulatory Issues: Compliance & Reportorial requirements, etc.
Suppliers, Contractors, Market, Business and Consumers
Page 15 of 32

Electric Power System
This will be affected too!
Courtesy of PG&E Company, California, USA
Engineering Design Consideration

Engineering Design Process (Product Dev) Define the Problem
Problem identification Business requirements
Gather Data
Information search Surveys / research
The need to expand our POVs and understanding of future impact
Generate Solutions
Benefits/Cost Options
Criteria or specifications
Select a Solution
Constraints or limitations Functional/technical Comml Feasibility Safety/liability Market acceptance Regulatory compliant
Test/Implement
Proto-typing QC/QA Documentation
Page 16 of 32

Engineering Design Consideration

Engineering Design Process (Utility/Facility) Define the Problem
Problem identification Business requirements
Planning
Data gathering & surveys Planning & organizing
The need to expand our POVs and understanding of future impact
Design
Options & alternatives Specifications / drawings Cost / benefits
Testing & Commissioning

QC/QA Documentation
Construction
Criteria or specifications Constraints or limitations Site development Civil, mechanical, electrical, architectural works, etc. Regulatory compliance
Operation & Maintenance

Monitoring Preventive/Corrective measures
Worlds Primary Energy Demand

Is it sustainable?
Mtoe 18 000 16 000 Hydro 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Nuclear Biomass Gas Coal Oil Other renewables
World energy demand increases an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise
Source: Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency
Page 17 of 32

Coal as Primary Source of Energy

Increase in primary demand, 2000 - 2007
Mtoe 1 000 900 800 700 600 500 1.6% 400 300 200 100 0 Coal Oil Gas Renewables Nuclear 2.2% 20% 0.8% 0% Non-OECD OECD 2.6% 40% 60% 4.8% % = average annual rate of growth 80%
Shares of incremental energy demand Reference Scenario, 2008 - 2030

100% Coal All other fuels
Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source!
Ongoing Power Generation Construction

GW 250 Total = 613 GW Non-OECD OECD
200
150
100
50
0 Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Wind Rest of renewables
Over 600 GW of power-generation capacity currently under construction worldwide with target operation by 2015
Page 18 of 32

Energy Profile - Philippines
World Oil Production

mb/d 120 100 80 60 Natural gas liquids Non-conventional oil Crude oil - yet to be Developed or found Crude oil - currently producing fields
45 mb/d
40 20 0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Assuming oil demand remains flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity (approx 4 times the capacity of Saudi Arabia), would be needed just to offset decline from existing fields.
Page 19 of 32

Worlds Oil Reserve
1200 billion barrels
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2007
World Gas Reserve
The 11 members of GECF account for 2/3 of global gas reserves, while just 2 of them Russia & Iran account for over 40% .
Page 20 of 32

Oil, Gas, Other Reserves Summary

Proven reserves: Coal: 905 billion metric tonnes; 4,416 billion barrels oil equivalent Oil: 1,200 billion barrels Natural gas: 6,289 Trillion cubic feet; 1,161 billion barrels oil equivalent Average Daily Production: Coal: 16.7 Million metric tonnes; 52 million barrels equivalent Oil: 84-86 Million barrels / day Natural gas: 115.4 Trillion cubic feet; 19 Million barrels oil equivalent Reserve to last from now: Coal: 143 years Oil: 38 years Natural gas: 56 years
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2007-2010
Worlds Top CO2 Emitters

2007 Gt China USA EU27 Russia India 6.1 5.8 4.0 1.6 1.3 rank 1 2 3 4 5 Gt 10.0 5.8 3.9 1.9 2.2 2020 rank 1 2 3 5 4
The top 5 emitters account for 70% of world emissions; China overtook the USA as the largest emitter in 2007, while India becomes the fourth largest before 2020
Page 21 of 32

Energy Related CO2 Emission
Fossil Fuel Emission Levels - Pounds per Billion Btu of Energy Input Pollutant Natural Gas Oil Carbon Dioxide 117,000 164,000 Carbon Monoxide 40 33 Nitrogen Oxides 92 448 Sulfur Dioxide 1 1,122 Particulates 7 84 Mercury 0.000 0.007
Source: EIA - Natural Gas Issues and Trends 1998
Coal 208,000 208 457 2,591 2,744 0.016
Source: Environmental Protection Agency & EIA
Reduction on Energy Related CO2

Gigatonnes 45 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario 9% 14% 23%
40
Nuclear CCS Renewables & biofuels Energy efficiency
35
30
54%
25
20 2005
2010
2015
2020 550 Policy Scenario
2025
2030 450 Policy Scenario
Reference Scenario
Energy efficiency accounts for the most of the savings
Page 22 of 32

Climate Change Policy Targets

550 Policy Scenario
Corresponds to a c.3C global temperature rise Energy demand continues to expand, but fuel mix is markedly different CO2 price in OECD countries reaches $90/tonne in 2030 Additional investment equal to 0.25% of GDP
450 Policy Scenario

Corresponds to a c.2C global temperature rise Energy demand grows, but half as fast as in Reference Scenario Rapid deployment of low-carbon technologies Big fall in non-OECD emissions CO2 price in 2030 reaches $180/tonne OPEC production almost 13mb/d higher in 2030 than today Additional investment equal to 0.6% of GDP
Summary
Energy and geopolitics are highly interconnected. We need to do our share now The need to decarbonize the worlds energy system to address our energy security and human survival The need to closely collaborate with the other engineering disciplines, city planners, government agencies and concerned private entities to mitigate the risks and hazards Always consider Mother Earth in engineering!
Page 23 of 32

Our Roadmap
Options for Change & Trends

Emission reduction
Further shift to Natural Gas
Nuclear power ?
Renewables
Bio-products
Carbon capture and storage
Energy conservation and efficiency
Mass transportation
Road transport
Smart Buildings
Low energy appliances
Doing things differently
Page 24 of 32

Todays Renewable Energy

Renewable energy GW equivelants Globally
Ocean Power, 0.3 Solar CSP, 0.4 Solar PV , 7.8 Biodiesel bln litres, 6.0 Geothermal power, 9.5
Geothermal heating, 33.0
RE<C approaching cost of Coal
The most well known Solar & wind growing at 35-50% yr 10x / 7 yrs
Ethanol, 39.0 Biomass power, 45.0 Wind Turbines, 100.0 Solar hot water, 105.0 Biomass heating, 235.0
Hydropower Lg & Small, 843.0
0
Source: EIA
200
400
600
800
1000
2010 Total Primary Energy Supply, MTOE
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011
Page 25 of 32

Renewable Policy Direction

Sweden is aiming for 60% renewables by 2020.
Estimates have shown that UK could have a 100% wind supply due to geography
Denmark already gets 20% of its electricity from Wind.
This country just signed a deal for 15% of power 120mw of wind.
This country established RE Act 2008, RPS, Net Metering and adopted a feed-in tariff policy
Source: Worldwatch Institute
Renewable Energy - Wind
Wind cheap 30% availability
Page 26 of 32

Renewable Energy - Solar

World solar PV installations 2007 measured in G igawatts
Ge r m any
Jap an
Unite d State s
Spain
Italy
Au s tr alia
1:1,600 of total global power
South Kor e a
Wor ld to tal 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Sourc e: w ikipedia, w w w .gogerty .com
Philippines Share
Source: 1st Semester 2011, DOE
Page 27 of 32

Philippines RE Targets (2011 2030)
Source: 1st Semester 2011, DOE
Opportunities & Megatrends
Oil
Biomass
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Primary Energy
Direct combustion Industry and Manufacturing
Energy
Liquids
Energy
Power Generation
Energy
Final Energy
Mobility
Buildings
Consumer Choices
Page 28 of 32


Power Generation & Manufacturing
Key directions: Decarbonisation GHG emissions management Energy efficiency improvements Electriticy as a preferred domestic and commercial final energy source Key technologies: Renewables Clean coal technology & CCS Natural gas Smart grid / meters Combines energy generation systems

Mobility
Key directions: New more efficient/smart vehicles Broadening the range and type of fuels Changing the way we use mobility Mass transportation Key technologies: Hybrids and electric (drive trains & batteries) 2nd generation biofuels, synthetic diesels, electricity. Integrated public / private transport mechanisms Hydrogen
Page 29 of 32


Buildings
Key directions: Energy standards and codes for buildings, appliances and lighting. Focus on building materials and their lifecycle emissions. Innovation in building design with focus on energy efficiency and environment conservation (LEED) Education programs for operators and users/tenants.
Page 30 of 32


Consumer Choice
Tonnes Carbon p.a. A family of four: Semi-detached house And has installed: Insulation & double glazing Efficient lighting Solar heating & electricity A ground-sourced heat pump And also: Uses smart appliances Adjusts the thermostat Switches off lights/appliances 1.57 -0.22 -0.09 -0.26 -0.59 -0.11 -0.04 -0.06 Tonnes Carbon p.a. A family of four: Large house and lot + Extra air-conditioning + Heated swimming pool But could install: Insulation & double glazing Efficient lighting Solar heating & electricity And could also: Use smart appliances Adjust the thermostat Switch off lights 2.57 0.04 1.48 -0.9 -0.13 -0.34 -0.16 -0.18 -0.31
Drives one car: A hybrid, 10,000 kms
0.23
Drives two cars: A large SUV, 20,000 kms A regular sedan, 15,000 kms
1.42 0.78
Waste
And makes extensive use of alternative transport
Air travel Car travel Household

And travels by air regularly: ~15 short-haul trips ~ 8 long-haul trips Also produces waste But could recycle some 9.65 tonnes p.a. 0.73 2.38 0.25 -0.15
Travels regionally by air on vacation: ~5 short-haul trips 0.32 Also produces waste but recycles where possible 0.25 -0.15
0.85 tonnes p.a.

Source: www.bp.com/carbonfootprint
Summary & Recommendations

Opportunities are here BUT always think of the whole ecosystem Environment, People and overall Economic impact. Re-engineer current practices; collaborate with the other engineering disciplines, city planners, government agencies and concerned private entities in the planning, engineering, operation/maintenance of our infrastructure. Save our Mother Earth!
Page 31 of 32

Climate Change
(Impact and Design Consideration)
Eugene F. Araullo, PEE, PMP, CDCP, ITIL
36th IIEE Annual National Convention Philippine International Convention Center

November 25, 2011
Economic Development through Clean & Affordable Electricity
Page 32 of 32

EFA-Climate Change v3

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Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

Eugene F. Araullo, PEE, PMP, CDCP, ITIL

36th IIEE Annual National Convention Philippine International Convention Center

Economic Development through Clean & Affordable Electricity

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

Climate Change - definition

Why is this happening?

Desertification or overgrazing Excessive Logging/ deforestation Lack of care to environment

Priorities and interest

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

Climate Change Effects Summary

Climate Change the Human Issue

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

Typhoons Floods Landslide Liquefaction

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

Pacific Typhoon Incidences (2009)

Tropical depression Tropical storm Category 1 Category 2

Pacific Typhoon Incidences (2010)

Tropical depression Tropical storm Category 1 Category 2

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

Pacific Typhoon Incidences (2011)

Tropical depression Tropical storm Category 1 Category 2

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

Case: Ondoy (Sept 2009)

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

Other Hazards Seismic Origin (addl)

Earthquake Tsunami Landslide Liquefaction

The Ring of Fire

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

Metro Manila Seismic Threats

West Valley Fault

Indonesia 2004, DIGITALGLOBE

QUEZON CITY MARIKINA

LAS PINAS MUNTINLUPA

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

Building Damage Estimate

1 - 20 20 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 500 500 - 3000

QUEZON CITY MARIKINA

SAN JUAN PASIG MANDALUYONG

LAS PINAS MUNTINLUPA

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)

Fire Outbreak Potential

TAGIG Maximum Burnt Number

500 Fires may occur simultaneously Source: MMEIRS

Factor Used: Estimated Results:

Possible Regional Separation

Source: JICA Study/ MMEIRS

iiee/EFA-Climate Change v3 file Nov 25, 2011

Climate Change (Impact & Design Consideration)