DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

MA RK ET
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA

S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION SHORT 3

ENTRY LEVEL 1.3480

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

1.3140/1.3000/1.2860 (Entered 16/11/2011) Await fresh signal. Await New Buy Trade Setup.

1.3480

Sell limit 3

0.9300

0.9200/0.9100/0.8953 Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.

0.9400

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/GBP

Sell Stop 3 Buy limit 3

0.9940 120.25

0.9860/0.9660/0.9380 121.20/123.00/125.72 Await fresh signal.

1.0090 119.30

Sell limit 3 Sell stop 3 SHORT 3 SHORT 3

0.8560 1.2130 1680 34.1300

0.8520/0.8420/0.8340 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1595/1450/1300 (Entered 23/11/2011) 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011)

0.8600 1.2230 1740 35.6880

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

EUR/USD (Daily)

BERMUDA TRIANGLE

Weak recovery warns of further downside risk.

FAILED
BREAKOUTS

EUR/USDs weak recovery is warning of further downside risk. Expect the bearish impulsive to move extend from key overhead resistance (primarily a 2 year trend and its long-term 200-day average).

BREAKOUT ZONE

Bearish sentiment also remains anchored by heightened contagion fears driven from the greater European sovereign debt risk. A sustained close beneath 1.3146 (Oct swing low) will re-establish the larger

(1.4000)

200-DMA (1.4092)

1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL) 1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

downtrend from April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870 (2011 major low). Resistance is likely to cap at 1.3610 and 1.3730. Keep an eye on highly correlated risk-related proxies, such as the S&P500

UPTREND (2 YEARS)

and AUD/USD, which both continue to exhibit downside presssure. Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and is fast

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD INDEX
200-DMA (75.75)
9 MONTH HIGH
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9% CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

approaching the recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%). Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
+27% +19%
+10%
SO FAR

USD INDEX (4 YEARS)

Special Report: EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.

VIDEO

BREAKOUT ZONE
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months. US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

13
DEMARK BUY SIGNALS

KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)

TRIGGER (15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3480

USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

Back over 1.5700 to strengthen outlook further.

GBP/USD appears to have found a short-term base at 1.5423 for the time being. As highlighted in previous reports, Sterling has the capacity to be deemed as a safe haven in the event that Euro-Zone contagion escalates. It is this reasoning that leads us to continue to favour a return to the large range that has been witnessed for the majority of the year. An earlier break under 1.5423, or resistance close to 1.5700 will warn of a larger extension lower. However, a failure to remain under 1.5700 will

suggest scope for a larger recovery higher and a break down in negative structure. Also, given the reasoning above, EUR/GBP, can positively impact on GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP GBP/USD, if a break under 1.3146 can be achieved in EUR/USD. We also note that a sustained break under 1.5272 is required to turn the medium-term bias decidedly bearish. We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in our formulation of strategy.

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I)

Minor rebound capped at 78.24 (DeMark Level).

USD/JPYs minor rebound is still being capped at 78.24 (DeMark Level). Moreover, downside risks remain, with the growing probability of a third

QUAKE SHOCK! 83.30

POST G7 MOVE (I) HIGH

price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL). Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first
82.00

to call the market bottom. This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

POST BOJ MOVE (II) HIGH

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
80.24

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal. The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)

ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN ANTICIPATE SBREAKOUT (85-79)

PIR II

POST BOJ MOVE (III) HIGH

PIR III

points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY. Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change Media Reports: CNBC
MONTHLY DEMARK BUY SIGNAL DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD OF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

Bloomberg

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

Within the midst of a corrective phase.

USD/CHF has seen an initial corrective phase lower after peaking at 0.9331. This has met 0.9141 so far. Scope is now seen for a lower high to form versus 0.9331 for a further swing to the downside. Downside pressure is also likely to remain given the elevated nature of yields in the Euro-Zone, creating a safe haven again for Swiss Francs. Spanish and Italian government bonds remain elevated, currently trading at 6.478% and 7.355% respectively. We continue to monitor the German sovereign yield curve with ten year yields there currently trading close to 2.302%, up from 2.259% yesterday. If yields in Germany continue to rise, this will likely mark an acceleration of USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP deterioration in the Euro Zone. Movement in USD/CHF is likely to be affected by EUR/CHF should the latter rate get closer to the 1.2130 region, which marks the lower end of the recent trading range.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.9300, Objs: 0.9200/0.9100/0.8953, Stop:0.9400

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily) USD/CAD (Weekly)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

Sharp Setbacks hold steady.

USD/CADs sharp setbacks are holding steady today, following the recent short-term DeMark exhaustion sell signal. A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the

200-DMA (0.9851)

CONFIRMATION ABOVE 1.0680 OPENS LARGER RECOVERY

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle. Only a sustained close beneath 1.0230 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9851 and 0.9726 (31 Aug low).
st

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

EUR/CAD remains beneath its 200-day MA, still within a large multi-month trading range. The strong multi-month distribution pattern is likely to breakdown further into support levels at 1.3570 and 1.3380. CHF/CAD has also broken back beneath its 200-day MA at 1.1372, while

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

MAJOR RESISTANCE

CHF/CAD (Daily)
REVERSAL PATTERN

maintaining a multi-week trading range. This follows the dramatic price slide lower (which was triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.

50%

200-DMA (1.3874)

(1.3570)
61.8%

(1.3379)

50%

(1.1488)
61.8%

(1.0893)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting New Buy Setup.

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD
AUD/USD
(1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

AUD/USD
(Weekly)

Minor recovery capped at 1.0080.

AUD/USDs minor recovery has been capped at 1.0080 (38.2% Fib-28 Oct decline). A new short position is being activated, with a sell stop at 0.9940.
STRUCTURAL LEVEL

th

The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.
3 YEAR UPTREND IS UNDER PRESSURE

38.2%

(0.9144)
50%

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day horizon. The Aussie dollar has triggered a mild recovery against the Japanese yen and is now trading back above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern. Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal further unwinding of risk appetite.

(0.8546)
200-DMA (1.0405) 61.8%

(0.7947) KEY ZONE

AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD (Daily) AUD/JPY (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

13

REVERSING INTO 200-DMA 38.2%

(76.70)
50%

200DMA (82.61)

(72.58)
61.8%

(68.47)

RESUMPTION OF BREAKDOWN ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell Stop 3: 0.9940, Objs: 0.9860/0.9660/0.9380, Stop: 1.0090

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

Over 121.77 may trigger a further recovery leg higher.

GBP/JPY may be entering a corrective phase higher following the break out of hourly bear channel resistance. With this in mind, a higher low is anticipated ahead of 119.38, should a short-term pullback take place. This is also supported by the minor recovery seen in equities globally and in particular in the S&P500. Yesterday has also seen a push over 121.77, thus breaking the sequence of lower highs that had been witnessed from 127.32. This also increases the probability of a further leg higher to complete the corrective phase from 119.38. A failure to hold over 119.38 will warn of a return to 116.84. GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Over a longer period of time a substantial recovery higher is favoured, initially towards 163.09.

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 120.25, Objs: 121.20/123.00/125.72, Stop: 119.30

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY
Further leg higher anticipated.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

EUR/JPY appears to have completed an initial corrective phase higher, with scope now for a further swing to the upside. We view the fall that has taken place since 111.60 as being corrective in nature, suggesting potential for a further leg higher. The break out of the hourly falling channel that has taken place during recent sessions is now suggestive of a larger corrective phase higher. However, the EUR component of this pair is highly affected by the movement in EUR/USD. As the yields in Spanish and Italian government bonds continue to rise, this puts more downside pressure on the EUR. A break under 1.3146 in EUR/USD will end the rising phase seen since 2010. This would likely be associated with a fall back down to 100.76 and EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP potentially lower. Given the above clash between the structure and the deterioration in the Euro-Zone, we prefer to wait on the sidelines. A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the mediumterm outlook more bullish.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

Hourly structure warns of a re-test of the recent low at 0.8486.

A push under 0.8528 will negate the strategy given below. EUR/GBP continues to frustrate, failing to garner any momentum, following the recent break of the key 0.8530/31 lows. However, the evolution of shortterm structure is suggestive of a re-test of 0.8486, under which will open up extensions near 0.8420 and 0.8340. Given the precarious situation in the Euro-Zone, it is anticipated that if yield curve deterioration continues then Sterling could be viewed as a safe haven. Thus focus remains on the Italian and Spanish government bond markets. Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200 day and 50 week moving averages. We keep an eye on the 1.3146 level in EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/USD. A push under this level will mark a clear breakdown of

confidence in the EUR, which would then likely have a knock on effect on all EUR crosses.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8560, Objs:0.8520/0.8420/0.8340, Stop:0.8600

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

Under 1.2251 to weaken outlook further.

EUR/CHF continues to trade in a tight range just under the 1.2500 level. Downside pressure is favoured to resume as yields on Italian and Spanish sovereign debt remain elevated. Over time, this may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF. Our strategy remains to trade opportunistically from a momentum perspective, awaiting a return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to this level. Near-term, a break back under 1.2251 will warn of a failure to re-test the EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP 1.2500 region, suggesting an earlier return to 1.2123/31. In any case, a retest of the base of the recent trading range is anticipated over coming sessions. The failure of this pair to break over the 50 week moving average over recent weeks is also an initial warning that the prior downtrend may not be over. The large cluster of stops that is likely to be placed around the 1.2000 level is also anticipated to aid any short positioning, questioning the ability of the SNB to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 /$1844

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

RISK ZONE III

DOUBLE TOP

Remains negative beneath $1800.

Short-term price activity remains negative beneath resistance at $1800. The bearish move is starting to be anchored once again by Golds last dramatic 20% capitulation in September. There is heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close beneath $1600/04 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been breached in 3 years!

DEMARK SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLDS OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS

20% SO FAR

$1760 $1704

$1600

34%
$1532
BREAKOUT 200-DMA NOT BROKEN IN 3 YEARS!

A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530 UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000 TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage: Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600
COT NET LONG SPECULATOR POSITIONS

VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown

CNBC Squawk Box

MIG Bank Gold Webinar video

(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)

25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF SIZEABLE LONG GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

II

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1680, Obj:1595/1450/1300, Stop: 1740

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK SELL SIGNAL DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

Key support at $30.0000.

13

Silver (Daily)

Silver is weakening back into 30.0000 and favours a test the previous swing low at 26.0700. Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

200 DMA (36.9951)

II

allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

KEY SUPPORT (26.0700)

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

38.2%

multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers longterm uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

(32.3135)

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

50%

(26.9150)

resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

61.8%

higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

(21.5165) 13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 70% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY

OVER

30 YEAR BASE PATTERN

BULL MARKET FROM 1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

30 November, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15