Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing January 10-11, 2012---Page 1

In this update: Slight Risk of severe storms tonight through Wednesday morning.
Key Points for this event: There is a slight chance of a brief tornado or a damaging wind gust tonight through Wednesday morning The current weather picture: A rather strong low pressure system (over northeast Texas this morning) will move northeast, dragging a cold front (and accompanying band of showers & thunderstorms) through our forecast area late tonight through Wednesday morning. A nearly stationary front (not shown) was located just offshore the Florida Panhandle coast, which separated somewhat cooler, drier air to the north from warm, moist air over the Gulf of Mexico. If this coastal front remains in place as expected, it Morning weather map with Slight Risk of severe storms (yellow) would limit the potential for severe storms over land.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing January 10-11, 2012---Page 2

The following image shows the probability of severe wind gusts (58 MPH or greater) within 25 miles of a point, which is 15% (yellow) for the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama, and 5% (brown) for southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend.

The tornado probabilities are even smaller, ranging from 5% (brown) to 2% (green) :

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing January 10-11, 2012---Page 3

Timing Although scattered showers will develop much of today, the heavier rain and thunderstorms are not expected to arrive until late this evening. This image shows what the local radars might look like around 1 AM EST/midnight CST as the cold front approaches from the west.

The next image shows what the radar imagery might look like around 7 AM EST/6 AM CST, when the cold front will be halfway through our local forecast area. We expect the severe weather threat, which is low to begin with, to have diminished by this time. Most of the rain will exit east of the region by midmorning Wednesday.

Please note that these are just forecasts, and that the actual timing of the rain may vary by several hours.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing January 10-11, 2012---Page 4

Impacts Because of the low-end nature of this event, we do not expect widespread impacts from this storm system. Any impact would mostly likely be limited to localized areas of downed trees and/or power lines, and possibly damage to more vulnerable structures like mobile homes and sheds. Isolated damaging wind gusts or a tornado is the main threat. In the rare cases when tornadoes do develop in this type of environment, they are usually weak (F0 or F1) and short-lived (less than 10 minutes).

Summary: There is a slight risk of severe storms tonight through Wednesday morning. The highest probability of severe storms, though small, will be west of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will occur between 11 PM EST (10 PM CST) through 11 AM EST (10 AM CST). Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or an isolated tornado will be the main severe weather threat.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will continue to monitor this situation. If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line at 800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You can also reach us on our Southern Linc phone at 1*77*184.